At 5/20/18 09:53 AM, HeadMistressSeven wrote:

At 5/20/18 09:42 AM, Sobolev wrote:

At 5/19/18 08:57 PM, HeadMistressSeven wrote: Hearing about ANOTHER chance for a tropical wave, NEXT weekend. Shouldn't have time to intensify much but I am not feelin a hurricane and hope they all stay away from me this year.

@sobolev thoughts?

PS: Chance of tropical cyclone formation is still not high IMO.

Agreed. Just statistically speaking, this early in the season, I'm not expecting much more than a tropical depression or storm, if that.

I usually favor GFS over Euro, although last year GFS wasn't super reliable.

A model is a model I suppose.

Yuck.

Btw I'm not really concerned about wind.

I'm concerned about the rain.

We had historic floods April 2016, people stranded on the interstate for days, thousands homeless, all from a tropical ish rain system that stalled out.

My parents' home flooded. It sucked.

over 20C and sunny for 2 weeks

If the disturbance develops (50% chance), most likely it will be a weak tropical cyclone due to shear and dry air, slightly offset by high instability.

Latest Euro run is more believable (showing a steady northward track inland, instead of meandering at coastal areas)
The ridge to the east should block eastward motion.

The western portion of the disturbance is likely to be drier than the east.

Rainy and cold

Looks like a sheared 40 knot TS making landfall near Mississippi with convection displaced to the east and north of center.
Heavy rainfall may extend far away from center to the east.

At 5/24/18 08:31 AM, Sobolev wrote: Looks like a sheared 40 knot TS making landfall near Mississippi with convection displaced to the east and north of center.
Heavy rainfall may extend far away from center to the east.

I'm favoring the euro model atm, and feel Louisiana will stay west of all of it.

At 5/24/18 11:11 AM, HeadMistressSeven wrote:

At 5/24/18 08:31 AM, Sobolev wrote: Looks like a sheared 40 knot TS making landfall near Mississippi with convection displaced to the east and north of center.
Heavy rainfall may extend far away from center to the east.

I'm favoring the euro model atm, and feel Louisiana will stay west of all of it.

Model result could depend on where the vortex is initialized, but I think the uncertainty in track is not that large actually, especially when the shear vector is not much different cyclone motion. Ridge to the east should steer it generally northward, with areas between Biloxi and Pensacola having higher chances of landfall.
There is some chance of getting trapped between two ridges upon landfall. I don't think it is very likely.

At 5/24/18 11:30 AM, Sobolev wrote:

At 5/24/18 11:11 AM, HeadMistressSeven wrote:

At 5/24/18 08:31 AM, Sobolev wrote: Looks like a sheared 40 knot TS making landfall near Mississippi with convection displaced to the east and north of center.
Heavy rainfall may extend far away from center to the east.

I'm favoring the euro model atm, and feel Louisiana will stay west of all of it.

Model result could depend on where the vortex is initialized, but I think the uncertainty in track is not that large actually, especially when the shear vector is not much different cyclone motion. Ridge to the east should steer it generally northward, with areas between Biloxi and Pensacola having higher chances of landfall.
There is some chance of getting trapped between two ridges upon landfall. I don't think it is very likely.

I'm seeing it become less and less of a Florida landfall storm, but I still feel like it is so early, like you said, we really need to see where the vortex initializes and yep, everyone east of it will see some rain.

Fabulous.

At 5/24/18 02:27 PM, HeadMistressSeven wrote: Fabulous.

The email looks like a scam

At 5/24/18 03:07 PM, Kieran wrote:

At 5/24/18 02:27 PM, HeadMistressSeven wrote: Fabulous.

The email looks like a scam

It's not, it's from the National Weather Service, which is legit here in America, as I understand you are not in country.
https://www.weather.gov/lch/

@sobolev I am hearing Invest90 will be named at the 11 AM advisory as Alberto. Latest spaghetti models are a trainwreck. I'm hopeful a well-defined center will help with the paths.

At 5/25/18 10:54 AM, HeadMistressSeven wrote: @sobolev I am hearing Invest90 will be named at the 11 AM advisory as Alberto. Latest spaghetti models are a trainwreck. I'm hopeful a well-defined center will help with the paths.

Yep here it is.

At 5/25/18 10:56 AM, HeadMistressSeven wrote:

Yep here it is.

...

At 5/25/18 10:54 AM, HeadMistressSeven wrote: @sobolev I am hearing Invest90 will be named at the 11 AM advisory as Alberto. Latest spaghetti models are a trainwreck. I'm hopeful a well-defined center will help with the paths.

Yes. It will first be designated as a subtropical storm (it is not fully tropical yet, but they find 35 knots winds within the broad circulation)

It is likely to transition into a tropical storm as it encounters less shear and instability in the Gulf of Mexico.

The system should not be difficult to forecast in terms of track. Intensity forecast is probably a challenge though.
For now, I am of the opinion that moderate wind shear and dry air intrusion will be the primary limiting factor.
There is a small chance it will make landfall as a minimal hurricane.

This morning's maps for any other gulf coast intetests

At 5/26/18 07:39 AM, HeadMistressSeven wrote: This morning's maps for any other gulf coast intetests

I think the hurricane hunters are flying back in this morning as well.

Alberto is about to make landfall as a subtropical storm, although it has probably developed a shallow warm core with central convection at its peak intensity, which could briefly qualify as a tropical cyclone.

However, since NHC has never recognized it as a tropical storm, it will not be counted towards the 2018 hurricane season (unless it is reclassified in post season analysis).

Aircraft and ground observations indicated Alberto has weakened prior to landfall. This is the result of dry air wrapping around the core, inhibiting deep convection development. Although the official intensity is set at 50 knots, there are almost no surface reports of tropical storm sustained winds near its center, the most recent aircraft observations indicated a maximum SFMR surface winds of 45-50 knots so it is probable that NHC has over-estimated the strength a little bit. I would assess the intensity at 45 knots. Minimum pressure has risen a couple of millibars too.

Actually subtropical storms still count.

At 5/28/18 01:14 PM, Sobolev wrote: Actually subtropical storms still count.

Yeah I'd think so. Like they will move down the hurricane name list, correct? Our next tropical system will start with B, even though this one was subtropical.

Also this

I need to know where in Germany @DamnedbyFate lives, because I see crap like this and wonder if it's near him, realizing Germany is a big place!

At 5/30/18 07:39 AM, HeadMistressSeven wrote: I need to know where in Germany @DamnedbyFate lives, because I see crap like this and wonder if it's near him, realizing Germany is a big place!

I will not disclose such information in public, for reasons you should be familiar with, but rest assured I haven't seen a cloud in days.

At 5/30/18 09:04 AM, DamnedByFate wrote:

I will not disclose such information in public, for reasons you should be familiar with, but rest assured I haven't seen a cloud in days.

Oh goodness no. I feel ya there.

But glad you ok!

rains

At 5/30/18 07:39 AM, HeadMistressSeven wrote: I need to know where in Germany @DamnedbyFate lives, because I see crap like this and wonder if it's near him, realizing Germany is a big place!

Well, for Europe it is.

Anyway, here's my forecast

It is June. As expected, we have our first tropical cyclone in the South China Sea.

The official forecast from NMC is close to my expectation.
It is expected to move generally northward, towards the vicinity of Hainan Island and gradually intensity as environment conditions remain marginally favorable (with high SST and moderate northeasterly shear)

There is a chance that the tropical depression may slow down and intensify significantly in Beibu Wan as it taps into mid-latitude jet and enters a region of competing steering.

Regardless, the system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms to Southern China.

At 5/31/18 09:31 AM, SavageAround wrote: it's very hot here and no wind :(

Also very hot in Denmark

The tropical depression over the South China Sea moved northward over the past few days. The steering current collapsed and it slowed and went into a small loop near Hainan Island and Zhejiang province yesterday, before resuming its northeastward track later on. It has also intensified into Tropical Storm Ewiniar. It has just made its final landfall at Yangjiang and is forecast to track northeastward slowly, around a weakening ridge to the east.

Apart from some flooding, its impact on local weather is not too serious. The storm produced squally thunderstorms. One of these thunderstorms developed into a weak waterspout (tornado).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0WKKMFlKzQ&feature=youtu.be

Strong southerly mid-level winds associated with the tropical storm (together with moist air and strong downdrafts from intense rainfall) could be one of the triggers of the weak tornado over sea.

At 1/30/14 01:30 PM, Ron-Geno wrote: I'd prefer if you used Weather Underground, but mostly any weather website will do.

What I'm looking like.

My weather can destroy humanity!

@sobolev did you have to deal with that tropical depression over there?

Hope your weather is ok.

GFS is showing a potential gulf system for 5-6 days out and everyone is losing their freaking minds over here. I'm like, "it ain't even an invest yet, calm your tits"