Happy New Year.
During the past few days, a ridge centered over Alaska and the North Pacific contributed to northerly flow ahead of the ridge center. This resulted in widespread cold waves across much of the North America continent. A weak shortwave ridge over Central Asia has propagated eastward, and was also contributing to below normal temperature conditions across the northern part of East Asia. Zonal westerly flow aloft due to positive NAO kept cold air across Northern Europe from intruding southward, hence average temperatures were slightly above normal for much of Europe.
Upper level analysis from CPC indicates that positive height anomalies had propagated from the stratosphere to the troposphere. The present North Pacific ridge (resulting to arctic outbreak across North America) may be linked to that propagation. This analysis also shows that geopotential height anomalies near the upper and middle stratosphere have turned positive, hinting at a stengthening polar vortex.
The North Pacific ridge will weaken over time and as a result, more zonal flow is expected across North America and cold air (especially at lower latitudes) will start to moderate after Week 1. This is also consistent with the expected synoptic-scale pattern based on current SST.
Energy transfer from the troposphere towards the stratosphere is not expected to increase dramatically. Stratospheric vortex should stay strong. Thus, AO index should be near neutral to slightly below 0 (in view of deficiency in Arctic Sea Ice)
The energy associated with zonal westerlies across Europe will support downstream ridge development near the Ural mountains. Another surge of cold air is expected to arrive East Asia next week. With the development of a trough, it will be colder in Western Europe as well.
Here is the experimental 14-day probabilistic forecast from HKO: