At 10/10/12 09:06 AM, Cootie wrote:
I thought Obama had this all wrapped up, but it seems like Mitt Romney whipped his ass in the debates a few days ago. Even so, Obama will likely pull through... just with a smaller gap between the two. All I hear is "Romney Romney Romney", but then again I live in Alabama so of course Republicans are a HUGE majority.
It is looking bad for Obama:
* For the first time in the campaign Romney is leading nationally in the RCP Average by 1%. However, in most recent polling by Gallup and Pew this number is even greater. According to Gallup Romney has a 2% lead, and Pew has him at 49% to Obama's 45%.
* Obama is running a campaign based on conceeding the white, working class vote in favor of a coalition of minorities and women...a risky gambit today (will probably be effective in 2020 or 2024). However, Pew has Romney and Obama tied at 47%. Obama cannot afford to lose any ground on a key demographic like women. At 47%...he's lost a dramatic 9%.
* Swing states like Florida, NC and Colorado are swinging towards Romney...now leaning Romney. Some swing states like Ohio, Iowa and Virginia are still leaning Obama but have lost their statistical edge. Before the debate Obama was leading by 5%, now he's leading by only 0.7%.
* Obama does have some mixed good news. 1) His job approval is slightly above water. His RCP average is +2%. 2) September unemployment dropped to 7.8% (unfortunately, much of the press surrounding it is actually negative).
Plus there are other things that can happen between now and November 7:
* The hearings on the Benghazi attack could undermine much of Obama's pitch that he's good at foreign policy.
* Biden's performance in the debate tomorrow. Many of my staunch Republican friends and family think that Ryan has this in the bag. Afterall, Biden is known for some pretty spectacular gaffes. However, Biden has considerable congressional experience where he has had to work with Republicans. Obama is more typical of liberals in this regard in that he tends to stereotype and dismiss conservative and libertarian arguements and therefore is not prepared to debate them head on. But Biden does not have this problem, plus most of his gaffes occur in front of friendly audiences...not ones filled with Republicans or Independants or a mix.
* Obama's performance in the next two debates. Obama's back is going to be against the wall. This is where the Chicago style politics begin. I expect him to come out swinging at the next debate and I expect him to take debate prep more serious. Plus the bar is lowered for him now...and raised for Romney.
In conclusion: things are looking favorable for Romney at this point. If the election were held today I would guess Romney would win 52%-48%. He needs to keep this up. If the next three debates break for the Republicans I give Romney a 52-55% chance of winning.
LINKS
Obama Job Approval
RCP National Average
Sun Times Article
Chicago Tribune
Obama's debate affect