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Will Obama win or lose the election

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leanlifter1
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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 9th, 2012 @ 09:26 PM

At 10/9/12 09:11 PM, Feoric wrote:
Congratulations, you're entirely wrong. There's absolutely no reason that the debt needs to be paid in full, that's not how sovereign debt works when you print your own money. It's essentially just an accounting tab. It's really cute how you think this is somehow oppression. Do you know how cheap it is for us to borrow money right now? Do you have any idea what our bond yields are right now? Do you even know what that is?

Taxation is tantamount to oppression so why keep paying on an arbitrary debt with an arbitrary debt based inflated currency ? It takes a voters mentality to not see the simple logical fallacy involved here.


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 9th, 2012 @ 09:33 PM

At 10/9/12 09:26 PM, leanlifter1 wrote: Taxation is tantamount to oppression so why keep paying on an arbitrary debt with an arbitrary debt based inflated currency ? It takes a voters mentality to not see the simple logical fallacy involved here.

Taxation is not tantamount to oppression. There, I put as much effort into my argument as you did with yours. I guess that makes this a tie?

Thecrazyman
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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 10th, 2012 @ 05:58 AM

At 10/3/12 10:56 AM, TheMason wrote:
At 10/3/12 10:39 AM, Camarohusky wrote: Unless anything weird happens, all we have got between now and the election are the debates. As it is right now, Obama has a slim lead.
Agreed. I think Obama's chance of winning are between 52-54%.

This alone proves that a number of people still keep forgetting that our current President of 2008 has a number of broken promises to begin with, a number of broken promises they should of looked into, but noooo, they still keep voting for him, not knowing about the major consequences that will be brought about to this very nation if he's ever allowed to be re-elected.

He's only meant for one term and one term only as Steve Jobs said it himself, his re-election will only do the American people a LOT more harm then good!

Why a lot more harm then good, there's a rather good chance a number of states within this nation will decide to succeed from the nation, native tribes will more then likely go back to there old ways, this nation is arleady coming CLOSE to another Cival War and there won't, and I REPEAT won't be another Abraham Lincoln to save us this time.

That said, those who voted for our current President to be re-elected again, I deeply suggest to re-consider the idea and void your own votes that are getting closer to getting our current President to be re-elected again, I say once and I say again, our current President of 2008 is meant for one term and one term only!

leanlifter1
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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 10th, 2012 @ 08:44 AM

At 10/10/12 05:58 AM, Thecrazyman wrote:
This alone proves that a number of people still keep forgetting that our current President of 2008 has a number of broken promises to begin with.

I have been yelling in public and on these forums that Obamney lied to get into power as his main cornerstone to his first campaign was "I will bring the troops home and END THE WAR OF TERROR". Then Obamney got into power sent MORE troops to Afghanistan and starter the war on Iraq some years later. Quote Obama 2007 Campain: "I will promise you this, that if we have not gotten our troops out by the time I am president, it is the first thing I will do. I will get our troops home. We will bring an end to this war. You can take that to the bank." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kr9ywEFRQkQ Many people on these forums seem to think there was only ever the war on Iraq and they have forgot about the War of Terror and Afghanistan. Well guess what everyone the fucking war of Terror is over and they killed not only Saddam Hussein but also Binladen allegedly so mission accomplished and you guy's still think a war is about "Terrorists" LOL so dumb just do dam dumb to fall for that propaganda people. If Romney gets into power it will be business as usual as he is even more Fasict and the US absolutely cannot afford to loose there "War Economy".


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 10th, 2012 @ 09:06 AM

I thought Obama had this all wrapped up, but it seems like Mitt Romney whipped his ass in the debates a few days ago. Even so, Obama will likely pull through... just with a smaller gap between the two. All I hear is "Romney Romney Romney", but then again I live in Alabama so of course Republicans are a HUGE majority.


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 10th, 2012 @ 10:56 AM

At 10/9/12 06:08 PM, LemonCrush wrote: It's pretty simple. Most americans don't pay taxes.

A load of shit

As for people not wanting to take responsibilty for themselves. It's evident in every singe Obama bumper-sticker. He's the welfare king. And that's why he gets votes. Look at his whole campaign. It revolves around "I handed over billions to a bankrupt corporation", and "I'm handing over healthcare and student loans".

Even more shit

Plenty of people manage to get emergency care. And they do it on other people's dime. Obama's system does nothing to fix that at all. He's just replacing it with the same exact thing, at higher cost to taxpayers. My ex sister in law was having seizures and went to the ER on someone else's dime. There has never been an issue with people getting emergency care. If emergency care is the reason for Obamacare, then he's proposing a fix to something that's already in place.

Youre either trolling or you clearly have no idea how the world works and whats happening around you. Either way, can you stop posting here please.

TheMason
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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 10th, 2012 @ 02:55 PM

At 10/9/12 06:13 PM, Feoric wrote:
At 10/9/12 06:08 PM, LemonCrush wrote: It's pretty simple. Most americans don't pay taxes.
Hint: payroll tax, sales tax, social security tax, medicare tax, unemployment tax, property tax, sin tax...

Unemployment tax is paid by employers. Social Security & Medicare taxes are split between employee and employer...to fund entitlement programs designed to give the taxpayer a return later in life (unfortunately, it is unlikely that Gen X and younger will see much of a return).

As for the rest, you need to look at tax benefits for the federal level for low income 'taxpayers'. Under the Bush tax 'cuts' (rates would be a more accurate term), my ex-wife and I were making $50K/yr. Our effective tax rate was -13%. That made-up for the amount we spent on sales taxes, property taxes, and 'sin taxes'. Maybe it didn't cover the cost of Social Security and Medicare taxes, but theoretically I'm going to get that money back when I turn 60 or 70-something.

And one little history lesson on 'sin taxes': FDR used them (called luxury taxes) to make-up revenue, he called them 'luxury taxes' as a way to get the poor on his side. Unfortunately, his administration found that taxing yachts and fur coats brought in less revenue than it cost to enforce them. So they cut those taxes...but kept taxes on alcohol and cigarettes...because both poor and rich alike drank and smoke. Why? Because enough ppl used those to make taxing them profitable. And it did hurt the poor more than the rich, BUT the poor did not have the benefit of things like the Earned Income Credit where even if they do not pay taxes, or are required to even file, will get money back.


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 10th, 2012 @ 03:55 PM

At 10/10/12 09:06 AM, Cootie wrote: I thought Obama had this all wrapped up, but it seems like Mitt Romney whipped his ass in the debates a few days ago. Even so, Obama will likely pull through... just with a smaller gap between the two. All I hear is "Romney Romney Romney", but then again I live in Alabama so of course Republicans are a HUGE majority.

It is looking bad for Obama:

* For the first time in the campaign Romney is leading nationally in the RCP Average by 1%. However, in most recent polling by Gallup and Pew this number is even greater. According to Gallup Romney has a 2% lead, and Pew has him at 49% to Obama's 45%.

* Obama is running a campaign based on conceeding the white, working class vote in favor of a coalition of minorities and women...a risky gambit today (will probably be effective in 2020 or 2024). However, Pew has Romney and Obama tied at 47%. Obama cannot afford to lose any ground on a key demographic like women. At 47%...he's lost a dramatic 9%.

* Swing states like Florida, NC and Colorado are swinging towards Romney...now leaning Romney. Some swing states like Ohio, Iowa and Virginia are still leaning Obama but have lost their statistical edge. Before the debate Obama was leading by 5%, now he's leading by only 0.7%.

* Obama does have some mixed good news. 1) His job approval is slightly above water. His RCP average is +2%. 2) September unemployment dropped to 7.8% (unfortunately, much of the press surrounding it is actually negative).

Plus there are other things that can happen between now and November 7:

* The hearings on the Benghazi attack could undermine much of Obama's pitch that he's good at foreign policy.

* Biden's performance in the debate tomorrow. Many of my staunch Republican friends and family think that Ryan has this in the bag. Afterall, Biden is known for some pretty spectacular gaffes. However, Biden has considerable congressional experience where he has had to work with Republicans. Obama is more typical of liberals in this regard in that he tends to stereotype and dismiss conservative and libertarian arguements and therefore is not prepared to debate them head on. But Biden does not have this problem, plus most of his gaffes occur in front of friendly audiences...not ones filled with Republicans or Independants or a mix.

* Obama's performance in the next two debates. Obama's back is going to be against the wall. This is where the Chicago style politics begin. I expect him to come out swinging at the next debate and I expect him to take debate prep more serious. Plus the bar is lowered for him now...and raised for Romney.

In conclusion: things are looking favorable for Romney at this point. If the election were held today I would guess Romney would win 52%-48%. He needs to keep this up. If the next three debates break for the Republicans I give Romney a 52-55% chance of winning.

LINKS

Obama Job Approval

RCP National Average

Sun Times Article

Chicago Tribune

Obama's debate affect


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TheMason
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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 10th, 2012 @ 04:02 PM

At 10/9/12 08:45 PM, Feoric wrote: What makes you think the national debt is meant to be repaid? The government doesn't manage finance like a household.

Yes...the US government is a legalized Ponzi Scheme. They can keep spending as long as they have enough revenue or credit to pay off its creditors. And yes in the past we have been able to keep the national debt down to a sane and sustainable level...which it currently is not at thanks to Bush and Obama.

But here's a huge problem: CHINA. At some point they are going to want their money back...and at the same value they lent it to us (ie: not in dollars whose value has been deflated). Things are not going to be pretty when China turns us over to their collections agency. There will be a day of reckoning.


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 10th, 2012 @ 04:16 PM

At 10/9/12 06:18 PM, leanlifter1 wrote: All Taxes are unconstitutional and literally against the law that is until they rewrote the law book to suite the need's of the Fascist Nationalist agenda. See it's a fairly simple philosophy in Taxing the middle class until it disappears.

I did a text search of the Constitution for the term 'tax' and cut and pasted the relevent passages here. But pretty much...taxes ARE constitutional.

Article 1

Section 2
Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers...

Section 8
The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

Section 9
The Migration or Importation of such Persons as any of the States now existing shall think proper to admit, shall not be prohibited by the Congress prior to the Year one thousand eight hundred and eight, but a Tax or duty may be imposed on such Importation, not exceeding ten dollars for each Person.

No Capitation, or other direct, Tax shall be laid, unless in Proportion to the Census or Enumeration herein before directed to be taken.

No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State.

16th Amendment
The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.


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leanlifter1
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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 10th, 2012 @ 04:20 PM

At 10/10/12 04:16 PM, TheMason wrote:
At 10/9/12 06:18 PM, leanlifter1 wrote: All Taxes are unconstitutional and literally against the law that is until they rewrote the law book to suite the need's of the Fascist Nationalist agenda. See it's a fairly simple philosophy in Taxing the middle class until it disappears.
I did a text search of the Constitution for the term 'tax' and cut and pasted the relevent passages here. But pretty much...taxes ARE constitutional.

and you never once thought for even a moment that they might have re ratified the rule book to suite there agenda. Keep drinking the koolaid.


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TheMason
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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 10th, 2012 @ 04:48 PM

At 10/10/12 04:20 PM, leanlifter1 wrote:
At 10/10/12 04:16 PM, TheMason wrote:
I did a text search of the Constitution for the term 'tax' and cut and pasted the relevent passages here. But pretty much...taxes ARE constitutional.
and you never once thought for even a moment that they might have re ratified the rule book to suite there agenda. Keep drinking the koolaid.

1) Extraordinary allegations require extraordinary proof. If you have some sort of proof...please present it.

2) The correct terms would be 'edited' or 'amended' instead or 're ratified' [sic]. Also a true intellectual would know it is suit instead of suite and their instead of there.

3) The majority of what I cut & paste was from the text of the Constitution...not any admendents. Only the 16th Amendment was ratified after the original Constitution.


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 10th, 2012 @ 05:46 PM

At 10/10/12 04:02 PM, TheMason wrote:
At 10/9/12 08:45 PM, Feoric wrote: What makes you think the national debt is meant to be repaid? The government doesn't manage finance like a household.
Yes...the US government is a legalized Ponzi Scheme.

Oh come on man....I thought you were smarter than this.

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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 10th, 2012 @ 05:52 PM

At 10/10/12 05:46 PM, Feoric wrote:
At 10/10/12 04:02 PM, TheMason wrote:
At 10/9/12 08:45 PM, Feoric wrote: What makes you think the national debt is meant to be repaid? The government doesn't manage finance like a household.
Yes...the US government is a legalized Ponzi Scheme.
Oh come on man....I thought you were smarter than this.

And while yes, there are some differences between households and the federal finances, I thought you were smarter than your post indicates. :)


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 10th, 2012 @ 06:58 PM

At 10/10/12 04:02 PM, TheMason wrote: But here's a huge problem: CHINA. At some point they are going to want their money back...and at the same value they lent it to us (ie: not in dollars whose value has been deflated). Things are not going to be pretty when China turns us over to their collections agency. There will be a day of reckoning.

I.....

China and Hong Kong hold about 7.5% of the U.S. debt. That's all. The debt China owns is just an agreement which is this: "you give us $x today (buying the bonds), and we'll give you $y every six months for z-years (interest), and then give you $x back at the end of those years (bond maturation)". It's really that simple. That's how bonds work. It's not some power transfer that can be used to force the US Government to do anything. China having X% of our debt does not give them any sort of leverage over us. It's actually in China's best interest to keep the US economy healthy, as they depend on those interest payments from their investments in US treasuries to support their social programs and infrastructure projects to keep their population happy. China should be the one worried, not us.

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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 11th, 2012 @ 09:20 AM

At 10/10/12 06:58 PM, Feoric wrote: China and Hong Kong hold about 7.5% of the U.S. debt. That's all. The debt China owns is just an agreement which is this: "you give us $x today (buying the bonds), and we'll give you $y every six months for z-years (interest), and then give you $x back at the end of those years (bond maturation)". It's really that simple. That's how bonds work. It's not some power transfer that can be used to force the US Government to do anything. China having X% of our debt does not give them any sort of leverage over us. It's actually in China's best interest to keep the US economy healthy, as they depend on those interest payments from their investments in US treasuries to support their social programs and infrastructure projects to keep their population happy. China should be the one worried, not us.

I know how bonds work, and yes it is that simple.

I also know how the Chinese government...excuse me; Chinese Communist Party...works and how they define their self-interest. They are terrified of unrest, and therefore they are terrified of fluctuations in their domestic economy. Deflating the value of the dollar, considering China pins the value of its currency on ours, causes their economy to experience inflation.

One of the things that policies like Quantitative Easing does is causes deflation, therefore effecting China's currency. That 7.5% will be paid back in dollars that are not worth as much as the dollars they invested in our bonds. They are getting shafted, which then inspires bad trade behavior. Beijing understands this principle...it seems the American Left does not.


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 11th, 2012 @ 11:09 AM

At 10/11/12 09:20 AM, TheMason wrote: They are getting shafted, which then inspires bad trade behavior. Beijing understands this principle...it seems the American Left does not.

You kidding?! China LOVES the US debt. The US debt that China holds allows China to lower its currency value and undercut the rest of the world. If China were to ask for the US to pay back its debt, they would be crippling their exports, and thus destroying their economy. China's ownership of our debt is of no worry to us at all.

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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 11th, 2012 @ 11:29 AM

At 10/11/12 11:09 AM, Camarohusky wrote:
You kidding?! China LOVES the US debt. The US debt that China holds allows China to lower its currency value and undercut the rest of the world. If China were to ask for the US to pay back its debt, they would be crippling their exports, and thus destroying their economy. China's ownership of our debt is of no worry to us at all.

Until China stops sending the 90% of the goods you Americans take advantage of everyday.


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 11th, 2012 @ 12:48 PM

At 10/11/12 11:09 AM, Camarohusky wrote:
At 10/11/12 09:20 AM, TheMason wrote: They are getting shafted, which then inspires bad trade behavior. Beijing understands this principle...it seems the American Left does not.
You kidding?! China LOVES the US debt. The US debt that China holds allows China to lower its currency value and undercut the rest of the world. If China were to ask for the US to pay back its debt, they would be crippling their exports, and thus destroying their economy. China's ownership of our debt is of no worry to us at all.

Sorry...but you're grossly underinformed here. The global financial crisis has shaken their faith in getting into bed with us. Further policies such as QE3 has effected the value of their currency domestically. Leaders of the CCP are nervous about our financial health and policies. You're thinking sooo 2007. :)


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 11th, 2012 @ 01:20 PM

At 10/11/12 12:48 PM, TheMason wrote:
Sorry...but you're grossly underinformed here. The global financial crisis has shaken their faith in getting into bed with us. Further policies such as QE3 has effected the value of their currency domestically. Leaders of the CCP are nervous about our financial health and policies. You're thinking sooo 2007. :)

I agree although I have not done research on the "QE3" I wholeheartedly agree on the getting into bed part LOL and the old way of thinking 07 and prior.


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 11th, 2012 @ 01:24 PM

At 10/11/12 01:20 PM, leanlifter1 wrote: I agree although I have not done research on the "QE3" I wholeheartedly agree on the getting into bed part LOL and the old way of thinking 07 and prior.

See...not all fascists are bad? lol


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 11th, 2012 @ 01:34 PM

I'm going to go out on a limb here (whatever that means) and say that Obama will probably win the election. I guess it's good Romney doesn't have a Vice Presidential mate as dumb as Sarah Palin, but who knows? I at least give Romney credit for not being as crazy as someone like Santorum. Of course, if I had my way, Ron Paul would be President, which will never happen.


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 11th, 2012 @ 01:43 PM

At 10/11/12 01:24 PM, TheMason wrote:
At 10/11/12 01:20 PM, leanlifter1 wrote: I agree although I have not done research on the "QE3" I wholeheartedly agree on the getting into bed part LOL and the old way of thinking 07 and prior.
See...not all fascists are bad? lol

We take part's and pieces from all the "ism's" of the past and current that have proven to work infallibly in practice and that are agreed upon by that vast majority and then slap a label on it let's just call it "thenewism" and this could be the best system human's ever devised to date IMHO because there are good part's even to communism etc.... and many things we can learn and use from bygone civilizations.


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 11th, 2012 @ 03:59 PM

Obama definitely spent too much time fighting with this stupid congress but I hope he wins. Romney can't even explain how he's going to implement a simple tax plan and would rather target fringe TV stations consuming next to nothing for the cutting rather than big businesses or the military spending.


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 11th, 2012 @ 05:13 PM

At 10/11/12 03:59 PM, naronic wrote: Obama definitely spent too much time fighting with this stupid congress but I hope he wins. Romney can't even explain how he's going to implement a simple tax plan and would rather target fringe TV stations consuming next to nothing for the cutting rather than big businesses or the military spending.

Real presidents don't have problems with "stupid congresses". Only dumbass ones do.

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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 13th, 2012 @ 02:51 AM

At 10/11/12 09:20 AM, TheMason wrote: Chinese Communist Party

oOOOooooOoo, scaryyyyy.

They are terrified of unrest, and therefore they are terrified of fluctuations in their domestic economy. Deflating the value of the dollar, considering China pins the value of its currency on ours, causes their economy to experience inflation.

And this is a perfect example of China not having leverage over us. Read this over a few times and demonstrate to me how this makes China somehow a threat? Yes China definitely does have protectionism but what does this have to do with them somehow fucking us over on bond deals? They rely heavily on them because they're incredibly safe, cheap and pay out steady returns. They're not going to jeopardize a good deal going for them.

One of the things that policies like Quantitative Easing does is causes deflation

What the hell are you taking about? QE doesn't cause deflation. QE is actually a countermeasure to deflation. Sometimes it goes awry like in Japan. We're not Japan.

That 7.5% will be paid back in dollars that are not worth as much as the dollars they invested in our bonds. They are getting shafted, which then inspires bad trade behavior. Beijing understands this principle...it seems the American Left does not.

They're getting paid interest. They're going to make billions of dollars by the time the bonds mature. What exactly do you think is occurring right now?

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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 14th, 2012 @ 11:40 PM

At 10/13/12 02:51 AM, Feoric wrote:
At 10/11/12 09:20 AM, TheMason wrote:
They are terrified of unrest, and therefore they are terrified of fluctuations in their domestic economy. Deflating the value of the dollar, considering China pins the value of its currency on ours, causes their economy to experience inflation.
And this is a perfect example of China not having leverage over us. Read this over a few times and demonstrate to me how this makes China somehow a threat? ...

In order to be deft at international relations and foreign policy you have to be able to empathize with other ways of thinking and try to think outside of the box of your culture/civilization's box. What you and Camaro makes perfect sense when looked at through the prism of the Western/Euro-American concept of 'self-interest'. However, the CCP does not share this concept of 'self-interest'. One of the things that confounds Western observers and policy makers when it comes to China is just how bizarre it behaves on the international scene. We scratch our heads whether we are in academia, State Dept or DoD. "Why are they doing that...that's not in their self-interest!" However, those of us who think outside the box realize that they place more emphasis in keeping their domestic population happy...over what makes sense (militarily, economically, etc) internationally.

Afterall, we're talking about a country that builds entire cities just to keep people employed...and thus happy...even though there is no one to live in them.

For a good read may I suggest: China: Fragile Superpower by Susan L. Shirk


One of the things that policies like Quantitative Easing does is causes deflation
What the hell are you taking about? QE doesn't cause deflation. QE is actually a countermeasure to deflation. Sometimes it goes awry like in Japan. We're not Japan.

When I spoke of deflation...I meant of the value of the dollar not the cost of goods. A devalued/deflated currency can lead to inflated costs of goods...kind of a double edged sword.


That 7.5% will be paid back in dollars that are not worth as much as the dollars they invested in our bonds. They are getting shafted, which then inspires bad trade behavior. Beijing understands this principle...it seems the American Left does not.
They're getting paid interest. They're going to make billions of dollars by the time the bonds mature. What exactly do you think is occurring right now?

You're correct. Some treasury bonds have fixed rates which means that they earn a fixed percent. Now if the dollar's intrinsic value decreases China and other bond holders are getting hosed because they are receiving money that is worth less then as it was when they purchased the bond. Think of it this way: you're the Emir of an oil rich Persian Gulf country and OPEC has set the price per barrel at $100. But then QE3 causes the value of the dollar to decrease by 10%...so now your $100 only buys $90 worth of stuff. Each barrel of oil still produces the same amount of gas, diesel, lubricant and/or plastics...so your product's value has not gone down. So are you going to trade your products, whose value is unchanged, for the same amount of a devalued currency? No; you're going to raise the price of your product by 10% to $110 to compensate.

And so is everyone else. However, if you've bought a $100 Series EE Bond at 4.6% interest when you go cash it in you're going to get $104.60 (assuming you've only held it for that year)...which will only buy you $94.14 worth of stuff. You're in a worse position than you started! Even though you have 4.6% more dollars than you started...it's worth less.

Now Series I bonds have a fixed and variable interest rate component. The problem is deflation can wipe out the fixed rate's return.

Also you have T-Notes which are considered safe investments with a fixed interest rate. The problem is since it is safe; the interest rate is not going to be all that great. It is designed to keep up with inflation at that time period. Now if inflation increases, especially b/c of the devaluation of the dollar, when you go and cash these bonds in you will have more than you started. However, now since the dollar buys you less...you are in a worse position than you started.

So yeah...they'll make billions but billions that are worth far less then than they are now. And that effects China's future stability. They get this concept...too bad the American Left does not.


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TheMason
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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 15th, 2012 @ 12:04 AM

At 10/14/12 11:40 PM, TheMason wrote: And so is everyone else. However, if you've bought a $100 Series EE Bond at 4.6% interest when you go cash it in you're going to get $104.60 (assuming you've only held it for that year)...which will only buy you $94.14 worth of stuff. You're in a worse position than you started! Even though you have 4.6% more dollars than you started...it's worth less.

Let me clarify this even further using examples that are relatable to a larger audience than just you and I. Say you wanted to save for the XBox 720. You read where analysts predict it will cost $650 in 2014. It's 2011 so you put $600 in Series EE Bonds at an interest rate of 3.6%. You calculate that this will yield about $640-645 when it's time to buy. You figure you'll just pay the tax out of pocket as well as make up the $5 difference.

However, let's say that the strength of the dollar decreases relative to other currencies (which happened last week) so now it only at 90% of its 2011 value. So now since it costs 10%more dollars to buy the same components to make a XBox 720...Microsoft raises the MSRP to $720.

Now instead of being $45 better off...you find yourself $75 behind where you wanted to be.

And yes...this is, while simplified somewhat, illustrative of how it works when one government buys another government's bonds.

No imagine you're China and bought $100 Billion in bonds, expecting to be several billions richer in 10 years. While you are that several billions richer in 10 years...that several billions in 2021 dollars covers less of your rising pension (ie: Chinese Social Security) cost than it would've in 2011. And since about 2025 is when their pension system is set to explode because of a population boom supported by a 'one-child policy' that has less workers supporting pensioners (not to mention a huge imbalance of more males to females) you have a China ripe for civil unrest on a magnitude that keeps Chinese leaders up at night.

Therefore, a war with someone (India, Russia, or the US) could solve some of their problems: A) rally the population against an outside threat (which they have been known to do during economic hardtimes: mostly the US and Japan) and B) bring the genders back into balance. A third possible benefit would be if they enlisted/drafted the elderly pensioners to ease the strain on their version of Social Security.

The scary thing is if China were to decide to go to war with Russia and/or India...they could drag the US in as an ally due to our indebtedness to them. After all, our politicians want to remain in power too and if there is a promise of debt forgiveness...they may jump at the chance be the Republicans or Democrats in charge.


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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 15th, 2012 @ 11:14 AM

At 10/15/12 12:04 AM, TheMason wrote: The scary thing is if China were to decide to go to war with Russia and/or India...they could drag the US in as an ally due to our indebtedness to them.

No chance.

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Response to Will Obama win or lose the election Oct. 15th, 2012 @ 02:05 PM

At 10/15/12 11:14 AM, BumFodder wrote:
At 10/15/12 12:04 AM, TheMason wrote: The scary thing is if China were to decide to go to war with Russia and/or India...they could drag the US in as an ally due to our indebtedness to them.
No chance.

And what makes you so sure that there is 'No chance' of this occurring?


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