At 7/8/12 09:28 AM, TheMason wrote:
It's not so much the lead the incumbent has that's important but how close to 48% he is. The reason is the "undecided" or "independent" voters usually go for the challenger. The incumbent can only expect maybe a fifth of those voters. What this generally amounts to is 2-3%. Where those voters are large % (ie: 5-12%) the incumbent picking up 3-5% is possible...but that depends on how extreme the challenger is.
Show me where this happens please, because I have a very hard time thinking that This is going to happen here. As I've said earlier, Romney, despite the Democrats's weak position, is even weaker as a candidate. Hell, when John Boehner doesn't have exactly the kindest of words for you, well, you kind of know something is going sideways fast on that campaign bus.
Ohio is a mixed bag. The most recent polls show Obama where he needs to be but there are two problems:
* The most recent polling uses a Registered Voter model where I prefer Likely Voter models.
The problem using likely models, is well, they're only likely. They may be close when the final results come out but there's no way day in and day out that they're accurate. Registered voters have already put in the time and effort to make their vote count and thus are more likely at actually vote.......but I'm spilting hairs.
* The upswing for Obama could be a temporary bump due to his perceived win on healthcare.
But the recent polling does show another pick-up for Obama.
While it might be healthcare, if it's Ohio, it's the Bain ads put out by the Obama campaign attacking Romney. It's funny this way, because one of Romney's big arguments is the economy, but what's getting slammed on is his business record. This is working Romney even more as his image is being painted as an out of touch rich politician. And with the way things are going, well, you get the picture.
Finally, there is something I'm watching for on election night: the Bradley Effect. In short I think Obama's presidency has polarized us along racial lines. In 2008 there was no Bradley Effect. However, now I think people will lie to pollsters about their plans to vote against Obama so they don't appear racist. This could cost Obama between 2-3% (4-5% outside) come election day. If that's the case Romney will probably win.
People said this back in 08 and I didn't believe them then either. It makes no sense at this point: Obama done enough in office where if you quasi-didn't like him in 08 and still voted for him you have a fairly good reason not to vote for him this year. Besides, I could say the same thing about Romney's Mormonism if I wanted to, but that wouldn't be fair politics, would it?
Again: I don't see Obama victory though. It's going to be a Romney loss.