I've been making games on Newgrounds since I was 13. Back in 2008, a Flash submission needed 250 votes before being blammed or passing judgment. Even a crappy stick fight or cursor maze game made in two days could get 5k views, and this isn't an optimistic "could" but the AVERAGE case.
After spending two years developing my first Android game, creating 26 videos with a release schedule on YouTube, and promoting the game on every community I've been a part of, I've gotten only 15 downloads in a week, and I know real-life friends account for several of those. I thought my expectations were pretty humble: 100 downloads and $25 worth of $5 donations to recoup the cost of a Google Play Developer account. But I'm nowhere near that, and $99 per year for an Apple developer account is absolutely not sustainable with numbers like this.
I get that things change a lot in a decade and a half. Even on Newgrounds, site traffic is way down and now more so than ever it functions more as a community than as a platform. High-quality games can level out at under 1k views. Some submissions can get portal awards and still only get 500 views. One of my first front-paged games (in 2015) got 40k views, my most recent one (which also podiumed in a Game Jam) has about 10k.
And obviously this isn't even touching on how different the mobile game market is. Google Play doesn't push new games up to a baseline number of downloads/ratings nearly to the extent that Newgrounds does. Everything is algorithm-based whereas Newgrounds' judgment system ensures every submission gets at least some minimum amount of views. There's also a cultural difference where people are a lot more hesitant to try a game that they have to download.
On the other hand, the total amount of traffic on the Google Play Store is astronomically higher than Newgrounds' traffic was even during its peak in traffic. It's hard not to expect that the law of truly large numbers anything should be able to get some number of downloads.
All that being said, what the heck are the rest of you guys doing? Are there obvious glaring flaws in my process? Or is everyone else stuck in the same boat?
If I offer to help you in a post, PM me to get it. I often forget to revisit threads.
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