I was flipping through old posts of mine and stumbled across this. The last time I posted it was in June of last year. There's a lot of new folks making runs on the Top 50, so it's time to repost, as it's useful to you as well.

[repost]
Bt = total BPs of the person currently ranked 50
Ba = average increase of the number 50 (not the one currently there, average increase in the bar at 50) per day
Yb = your total BPs
Ya = your average per day

D = days to top 50

The easy formula:

If Ya - Ba < 0 Your pace is such that the 50 rank will continue to pull away.

The hard one:

D = (Bt-Yb)/Ya + [(Ba(Bt-Yb)/Ya^2]

You will take however many days to get to the point at which they are NOW. The latter part of that is what most people forget. The 50 rank is moving too. How many days will it take you to compensate for that increase (+how many it will take you to compensate for that compensation + etc.)

A simpler way to look at it is to take the main part of that :

(Bt-Yb)/Ya = X

Now it looks like this:

D = X + ((X * Ba)/Ya)
[/repost]

On 1 February, 2003, the person ranked 50 had 2239 BPs and the person ranked 50 has 14,143 as of this morning's recalc. 618 days have elapsed since then. As Denvish has the highest pace (103.54) since last update, and is reasonably close to making the top 50, I'll run the numbers based upon him. You can use that example to figure the numbers out for yourself.

Bt = 14,143 (bmxgamer's total)
Ba = 19.26 (average increase of whoever is the number 50)
Yb = 12,209 (Denvish' total)
Ya = 103.54 (Denvish' average over the past week)

x = (Bt-Yb)/Ya
X = (14,143 - 12,209)/103.54
X = (1,934)/103.54
X = 18.68

D = X+ ((X * Ba)/Ya)
D = 18.68 + ((18.68 * 19.26)/103.54)
D = 18.68 + ((359.78)/103.54)
D = 18.68 + (3.47)
D = 22.15

Presuming Denvish maintains this pace, and that no super speedy comes along *cough*Foxphere*cough to dramatically increase the Ba, Denvish will be back in the NG Top 50 by the recalc on 4 November. There's a lot of presumptions in there, but it should give everyone a ball park on what pace you need to achieve, and how long you'll need to maintain it, to make it into the top 50.

Cheers to me being bored ... wrote a formula into the spreadsheet covering the speedies:

Name_____Days to Top 50
Foxphere 8.46
Denvish 22.15
Hermannator 22.28
_Bonus_Power_Ranger_ 27.56
carmelhadinosaur 28.68
BeFell 37.18
QuikFox 48.76
hoass169 49.45
BareNakedSneepioo 89.40
Ya_Ya 93.14
EKRegulus 122.79
j00bie 140.17
RoweNuts 141.54
Shat_the_Kat 157.16
Gooch_20-04 159.43
the_puppet 161.52
Jen_the_Great 162.81
FFF_Blade 178.09
Continuum 181.59
Sakurazukamori 201.69
Crossofdevil 226.56
ColdstreamCooper 230.44
BoneGnawer 231.30
Thobbe 341.82
General_Jarkeld 347.40
JoeCamel21 360.36
M-A-R-C-U-S 399.08
csscblackbelt2000 405.99
ChaosFoot 522.87
JerkClock 611.80

Heh, you must be at a loose end. Nice list; however, I very much doubt that I'll be maintaining my current pace for another 22 days. Still, nice to know that I should be back in the 50 by November.

I don't suppose you can remember what my previous high was, can you? I think it was about 37 but I'm not sure. Christ, the scores have gone up since then... 10, nearly 12 EGSCs... whoever would've thunk it?

At 10/12/04 06:20 PM, D0GMA wrote: Cheers to me being bored ... wrote a formula into the spreadsheet covering the speedies:
j00bie 140.17

That's actually pretty interesting, I thought it would have taken me a lot longer.
But I guess Im thinking of days to hit EGSC.
Make a list for that during your boredom =)

At 10/12/04 06:33 PM, Denvish wrote:
I don't suppose you can remember what my previous high was, can you? I think it was about 37 but I'm not sure. Christ, the scores have gone up since then... 10, nearly 12 EGSCs... whoever would've thunk it?

I don't actually remember ... and the spread sheet that might have it is buried in a hard drive on one of the down PCs. You peaked at 33 on my updates ... one of the last ones of mine was when Syme finally passed you started to pull away, but you made it to 32 on LockClock's first.

At 10/12/04 06:35 PM, j00bie wrote: That's actually pretty interesting, I thought it would have taken me a lot longer.
But I guess Im thinking of days to hit EGSC.
Make a list for that during your boredom =)

There's no actual reason to make a list for that since anyone can do the math. 30k doesn't move.

(30,000 - Yb)/Ya = Days to SC

At 10/12/04 07:08 PM, D0GMA wrote: There's no actual reason to make a list for that since anyone can do the math. 30k doesn't move.

(30,000 - Yb)/Ya = Days to SC

Still could have been semi-somewhat-maybe-sorta-interesting.

Itll only take me 362 days at this pace! =O

At 10/12/04 06:20 PM, D0GMA wrote: Ya_Ya 93.14
EKRegulus 122.79
j00bie 140.17
RoweNuts 141.54
Shat_the_Kat 157.16
Gooch_20-04 159.43
the_puppet 161.52
Jen_the_Great 162.81
FFF_Blade 178.09
Continuum 181.59
Sakurazukamori 201.69

Wait a second... I will make the top50 before j00bie, rowenuts, jen and sakura with my current pace? o_O

Too bad the reality won't be the same. Maths and stats don't always predict what will exactly happen. Why did you show those stats to us, now most of my rivals will increase their pace :(

Heh, just browsing through pages 20 -30ish... some really funny stuff...

-----

The following users will be unavailable for Newgrounds next week:

fixit 132.86/day
courtday 112.00/day
TheJoe324 110.57/day
Crono- 102.14/day
thisisasignin 98.29/day

The high volume of internet traffic on their computers set off the alarms the FBI had placed to catch the next worm. As they have not yet contacted their families as to their whereabouts, we can only hope they can still speak.

-----

72 4822 90 12.86 bmxgamer Unch
73 4747 419 59.86 impetus +7
brief pause in the stats so Impetus can hum the theme to Jaws
We now return you to our stats, already in progress
75 4547 23 3.29 mewt -2

-----

The following users will be unavailable for Newgrounds next week:

fixit 143.29/day
TheJoe324 128.00/day
Crono- 119.43/day
courtday 99.00/day

The programs they were using to automatically vote on flash have been rendered useless by liljim's latest portal implementation. The week will be spent recoding the programs to accomodate the loading requirement for voting on new submissions.

Grats again to our robot. For the third week in a row he broke 1k BPs with 1,003.

----------

The following users will be unavailable for Newgrounds next week:

fixit 145.14/day
TheJoe324 137.00/day
Crono- 121.57/day
Denvish 120.57/day

The overwhelming feelings of deja vu, caused by the sheer volume of unaltered resubmits, have manifested themselves as extreme anxiety and psychotic delusions. Rest assured, their padded cell will remain locked and guarded for the duration of their thorazine regimen.

Currently experiencing borderline disorders with episodic psychoses are:

D0GMA 109.86/day
MielipuoliMieli 103.14/day
Syme 103.00/day
GuineVir 94.71/day

Counselors expect them to recover and rejoin Newgrounds early next week.

-----

This thread will always be my home on the BBS...

At 10/12/04 04:42 PM, D0GMA wrote: Mini-update or the speedies as we enter the "home stretch." I was just a little unconscious this morning at recalc, so I waited until now to run it to do the averages based upon 6.5 days. Added carmel to the listing ... since he's back I knew he'd come into play somewhere.

Denvish 673 103.54/day
Ya_Ya 649 99.85/day
MPA 629 96.77/day

Heh and I only got 66 on Sunday due to being out of town. I'm curious to see who will be king of the B list this Saturday.

At 10/12/04 06:20 PM, D0GMA wrote: BeFell 37.18

That's really cool thanks. If I am able to increase my pace just a little I might just make it by my 1st NG birthday... It would only be about a hundred a day... Well at least it will be close.

16 October: One main change in the list set-up this week. The cut-off for the EGRL B list is now 10.00/day and higher. As it's dropped from 400k+ to under 150k, that should take care of file size issues with it for the foreseeable future. I'll be implementing the EGRL A split once we cross 1,200 Elite Guards.

Congratulations to this update's Rank-ups:

YoinK_VineS Major General
Nijsse Brigadier General
nimmer Colonel
Qwoxyl Colonel
dl_Monk Lieutenant Colonel
good_guy_o Lieutenant Colonel
SevenStar Lieutenant Colonel
Seraphius Major
Shpouiten Major
BeFell Captain
Denvish Captain
JewKnightThatSaysNEE Captain
BareNakedSneepioo First Lieutenant
Kooldawg First Lieutenant
Pure_LionHeart First Lieutenant
gamejunkie Praporshchik
FireHound Praporshchik
PimpMasterKDOG Sergeant Major
Sakurazukamori Sergeant Major
Ya_Ya Master Sergeant
M-A-R-C-U-S Master Sergeant
ThineDoor Master Sergeant
--Jimbo-- Master Sergeant
The_King_9000 Master Sergeant
Libidinor Master Sergeant
-Err0r Master Sergeant
ConfusedAndDisturbed Sergeant First Class
ssj_vegeta75 Sergeant First Class
100816 Staff Sergeant
General_Jarkeld Staff Sergeant
ikgh Staff Sergeant
JerkClock Staff Sergeant
JeWBiE Staff Sergeant
Mojimbo Staff Sergeant
Mr_Fluffykins Staff Sergeant
rabidwolverine87 Staff Sergeant
the_puppet Staff Sergeant
ThreeStar Staff Sergeant
BLAHBLAHA Sergeant
cloned_illusion Sergeant
csscblackbelt2000 Sergeant
Darkwolfe Sergeant
FFF_Blade Corporal & Sergeant
Filch Sergeant
Mizz_caramba Sergeant
provoko Sergeant
red_skunk Sergeant
ajargo Corporal
blackpatriot Corporal
BUCK_Jefe Corporal
Bulletpr0oF Corporal
FBIpolux Corporal
Iblis_Reborn Corporal
JoeCamel21 Corporal
Lebro Corporal
milsaw Corporal
MrCarmine Corporal
Slightly_Crazy_Dude Corporal
The-Mage Corporal
666pyro666 Private First Class
Bman2004 Private First Class
dr1zztt Private First Class
EbonBlade666 Private First Class
HouseMasta Private First Class
Hugh_Jasss Private First Class
ManicBrit Private First Class
Metal-Chuy Private & Private First Class
NakorBlueRider Private First Class
SABBATH-BOY Private First Class
Seahawk Private First Class
Xkepit Private First Class
yamago Private First Class
---89--- Private
Aapo_Joki Private
bgeek Private
BurningAfterTheDawn Private
HippiemanDave Private
Hotring887 Private
NazelbikAuthor Private
NeoDragoon Private
Samus-Aran147 Private
SoulShadower Private
ZYX3D Private

The NG Top 50 continues to, well, muddle along. bmxgamer has continued to manage to hold off Seraphius and Shpouiten, but Foxphere has now entered the picture. If present paces hold up, Shpouiten would make it in 2-3 days, with Foxphere overtaking him in another 10. By the time the dust settles on this chase, we'll be close to (or past) the point where you'll need LTC to make it into the Top 50. Good luck folks =)

Grats out to FFF-Blade and Metal-Chuy, who took advantage of the 10 day split to get the orange font with double rank-ups.

Thanks D0GMA. Lots of rank-ups, congrats to all those who I haven't already said it to in the LUL.

Well, excellent update Chris!!!

You dropped the color requirements and I STILL didn't get a color lol

Also, the main list has a flaw at the bottom that you might want to check out. Seems that a_butt_lmao is way too far to the right of the columns.

Anywayz, thanks for the list ^_^

At 10/16/04 07:08 AM, Denvish wrote: Thanks D0GMA. Lots of rank-ups, congrats to all those who I haven't already said it to in the LUL.

That's what happens when I let it go more than a week lol At least a couple of people managed doubles ... been too long since anyone made it.

At 10/16/04 07:13 AM, RedCircle wrote: You dropped the color requirements and I STILL didn't get a color lol

Might want to pick the pace up or I'll pass you ;)

Also, the main list has a flaw at the bottom that you might want to check out. Seems that a_butt_lmao is way too far to the right of the columns.

Thanks. While hiding rows and such I accidentally changed the tr code to an H on a couple people. Thought I had fixed them all ... oh well, all fixed now.

Excellent, there's the update with me exactly on 12,000 points. Time to start getting the odd point again, I seem to have dropped a few places :-(

Nice update D0GMA.

37 1 Qwoxyl 18002 574 57.40

I moved up, which gets cancelled out by having 18,002. I just had to vote on all 7 entries correctly when I had 17,995 didn't I? And to make things worse there are three green people who are eventually going to pass me. Damn those greenies.

At 10/16/04 07:28 AM, jonthomson wrote: Excellent, there's the update with me exactly on 12,000 points. Time to start getting the odd point again, I seem to have dropped a few places :-(

Shame on you, get back to work

At 10/16/04 07:39 AM, Qwoxyl wrote: Damn those greenies.

/me starts humming songs from Sgt. Pepper's

Yeah, I know, they were blue ... just go with it.

Finished the "other" update. I'm aware this doesn't coincide with the main comments. Shpouiten didn't get blue so didn't factor into these calculations.

Based on this past set of paces:

Name _____ Days to Top 50
Foxphere 8.36
Hermannator 14.64
Denvish 19.96
JewKnightThatSaysNEE 26.03
carmelhadinosaur 32.91
BeFell 39.61
hoass169 53.94
QuikFox 54.17
Kooldawg 73.03
Ya_Ya 96.26
RoweNuts 102.04
Orcmors 116.54
EKRegulus 116.68
j00bie 127.60
Jen_the_Great 140.40
ThineDoor 164.28
the_puppet 168.69
Gooch_20-04 174.31
Sakurazukamori 178.44
Continuum 191.29
Shat_the_Kat 199.44
FFF_Blade 237.21
Darkwolfe 246.32
Crossofdevil 246.61
FatherVenom 247.27
I_Am_PDW 254.54
phileeguy 266.90
ColdstreamCooper 268.93
agak12 315.21
Thobbe 321.40
csscblackbelt2000 407.73
FBIpolux 413.20

The "old" prediction on Bob was 4 November and this set would put him at 5 November. It's obviously not going to occur then as the paces of bmxgamer, Shpouiten, Foxphere, and Hermannator are likely all going to change the baseline for 50 and its average rate gain. ~shrug~ this is just for ballpark anyway.

BAH!
Im always a couple short of Green.
I JUST WANNA BELONG!!!

Im usually within the top 3 or 4 of the blue-texters... but... damn!
I wanted to play with the big boys =(

At 10/16/04 09:15 AM, BonusStage wrote:

At 10/16/04 06:58 AM, D0GMA wrote: Denvish Captain
JewKnightThatSaysNEE Captain

heh both of us on the same day i still find that awesome ^_^

And if your name still started with B you'd have been listed ahead of him ;)

Also i barely got above 75 per day HOORAY :D

The new base for green is 70, so you made it by a good margin.

At 10/16/04 11:00 AM, j00bie wrote: BAH!
Im always a couple short of Green.
I JUST WANNA BELONG!!!

Im usually within the top 3 or 4 of the blue-texters... but... damn!
I wanted to play with the big boys =(

It's already been reduced, just pick up the pace a bit =)

At 10/16/04 11:52 AM, D0GMA wrote: And if your name still started with B you'd have been listed ahead of him ;)

Hey! Don't encourage him! I'm having a hard enough time getting past the bugger as it is... 8)

Just noticed I got the top spot on List B, chuffed with that since there've been a couple of very slow days (GMT) this week with quite quick nights (ie evening EST). I usually take the rankings 12-1am, and then again when I wake up - to find that I've got anywhere between a 30 and 60 point deficit to make up on the fast movers in the top 70 ...erm, not that I'm obsessed with BPing, you understand....

Ho-hum. Not even sure what the next rank-up is but hopefully should be there in a couple of weeks. I'll be interested to see how your prediction for the Top 50 holds out, too.

Wow im right after poxpower, and moving at a pace of 40, which is.. very.. reasonable, i guess.. for...... hmm damn i should return b/p as much as i did before heh...
Great update D0GMA!!

Excellent update D0GMA, just another reason to love Saturdays. Good job getting 11 more b/p than me last week Denvish heh. That's not quite as bad as when iamnone got something like 2-3 more than me which put me in second on the B list then too.

At 10/16/04 08:11 AM, D0GMA wrote: QuikFox 54.17

Wow, I really slowed down, last time it was something like 48 or whatever. God damn Alliance slowing down by pace. But, I think I'll be getting back to normal now and all. I'm gonna try to get 10,000 blams by tomorrow morning.

At 10/16/04 08:11 AM, D0GMA wrote: Name _____ Days to Top 50
Foxphere 8.36

He will make it.

Hermannator 14.64

Who?!??! He will probably be like seraphius, someone that stays close to the list but rarely gets in.

Denvish 19.96

Nothing seems to stop him since he's back.

JewKnightThatSaysNEE 26.03

Bonus needs a life. :D

carmelhadinosaur 32.91

Dang, another ghost coming back! I didn't need that much competition.

BeFell 39.61

He's slow. He needs to increase his pace.

hoass169 53.94

I doubt it.

QuikFox 54.17

Top50 fo shizzle. He seems motivated.

Kooldawg 73.03

Who? No chances.

Ya_Ya 96.26

He's about to pass me. He's a machine.

RoweNuts 102.04

He's slower right now but his pace is fast enough to make a contender.

Orcmors 116.54

WHO???? forget it.

EKRegulus 116.68

NEVER! HIS PACE STINKS!

j00bie 127.60

gahahhaha dream j00bie DREAM!

Jen_the_Great 140.40

another ghost sigh....

ThineDoor 164.28

He used to be slower. He might have a chance.

the_puppet 168.69

who

Gooch_20-04 174.31

it will take a while

Sakurazukamori 178.44

He could make it.

Continuum 191.29

I doubt it.

Shat_the_Kat 199.44

ghahahhahaha another impossible situation :D

FFF_Blade 237.21

Let's hope he's prepared for a long run :D

Darkwolfe 246.32

who?

Crossofdevil 246.61

It will be long.

FatherVenom 247.27

Don't give up and increase your pace.

I_Am_PDW 254.54

Too slow.

phileeguy 266.90

Doubtful

ColdstreamCooper 268.93
agak12 315.21
Thobbe 321.40
csscblackbelt2000 407.73

WHO......?

FBIpolux 413.20

one year and a half of torture. Good luck.

The "old" prediction on Bob was 4 November and this set would put him at 5 November. It's obviously not going to occur then as the paces of bmxgamer, Shpouiten, Foxphere, and Hermannator are likely all going to change the baseline for 50 and its average rate gain. ~shrug~ this is just for ballpark anyway.

Yep, people will a smaller amount of b/p pts will need to increase their pace, at least to 3 b/p per hour or they might never get in the top50.

Nice update Dogma.
It's not easy being green.

check out my b/p totals for the past 3 days..

Friday - 130+bp (no school, no work)
Saturday - 100+bp (Work 5pm to 1am)
Sunday - 90+bp (Work 11am to 5pm)
Total - 320+bp for just the past 3 days

At 10/18/04 12:41 AM, Gooch_20-04 wrote: Damn, YoinK, you've got everything pretty much neatly organized throughout. :)

not to mention the fact that he was able to get in them numbers considering his work hours.

At 10/16/04 05:01 PM, EKRegulus wrote:

At 10/16/04 08:11 AM, D0GMA wrote: carmelhadinosaur 32.91

Wow cool list!! Its great that in 40 day approximately i'll finally be there!!!

Dang, another ghost coming back! I didn't need that much competition.

Haha sorry, but luckly for you im not moving so fast for some reason... hmm... must bebecause im making sigs all day O_o

At 10/16/04 08:11 AM, D0GMA wrote: Jen_the_Great 140.40

I don't think I have the patience to actually make it. If anyone's worried about me getting ahead of them, don't.

At 10/18/04 11:18 AM, Jen_the_Great wrote: I don't think I have the patience to actually make it. If anyone's worried about me getting ahead of them, don't.

Wait a minute... you're already in the top 20... why are you on the top 50 predictions list? :P thx (:)