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What are the odds?

rated 4.47 / 5 stars
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Dec 14, 2012 | 6:07 PM EST
  • Frontpaged December 17, 2012
  • Daily Feature December 16, 2012
  • Weekly 3rd Place December 19, 2012

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Author Comments

Update: I made this when I was fifteen. Settle down.

circa 2012:

BEFORE YOU LEAVE A REVIEW, take this with a grain of salt- many of the "facts" here are purely theoretical and unquantifiable, as is the exact odds of your existence. This animation was created to entertain, and lots of my research has been simplified to reach a greater audience (not to say it isn't accurate, however, it's all as accurate as I could ever get). So don't get all science-y on me, I'm not a professional science-y guy. I just googled some data and multiplied it all together for your amusement. ~Enjoy!

Originally created for NATA 2012, which I ended up winning. Rad!

So this one's actually been finished for a while now, but I didn't have the chance to upload it because of some video file conversion issues, which were resolved by my good pal Ricepirate (thanks!) It's way different than anything else I've ever done, but I think you'll enjoy it anyway :)

So a quick word on the tournament this was for-
I had 25 days to make this, so naturally I saved pretty much all of it for the last week or so. Then a series of increasingly misfortunate things happened, such as my graphics tablet breaking, not being able to find my files, and accidentally overwriting half of my movie seven hours before the deadline. Somehow I managed to pull all the pieces back together, and as luck would have it, I came in first place for the round. My direct opponent for that round, Slackman, came in a close second, which means if I had gotten any lower than first, I would have lost before the semi-finals.

What are the odds?



Rated 4.5 / 5 stars

I have no qualms with the flash (was pretty cool, liked the style, 4.5 stars), But jeez people learn what statistics ARE. Just because you are alive doesn't make the chances of it happening 1. It just means that the very unlikely chain of events causing you to exist DID happen, and all the other equally unlikely events didn't. If you picked 5 numbers from the air, they have the same chance of winning the lottery today as next week. But if you win, it doesn't make the probability 1. There is NO SUCH THING as a probability of 1 because we can't be absolutely certain of ANYTHING.
Unless you happen to be a creationist.
In which case, go ahead and believe in your magic pixies. This flash prbably went way over your incomprehensibly tiny little brain anyway.


Rated 1.5 / 5 stars

I hate these pseudostatistical model of a concept that doesn't actually boil down to mere mathimatical chance. You cannot, without substaintial fault, accurately measure such an odd. There are factors. even outside the realm of choice, that are immeasurable. And to think anyone possess the capacity to quantify the odds of "being alive" is wholly insulting the merit of the science community. This is careless sensationalism, and your 1.5 stars are for sheer programming ability,

Your creativity was limited to the many regurgitated cinematographic and typographic techniques abused by mainstream marketing and design professionals, and your message was utterly incorrect.

Emrox responds:

Alright, I updated the description a bit to explain myself.


Rated 3 / 5 stars

I have to respect the work that went into making this video, but it ignored the crucial fact that if other people met, it would still be talking to them and saying the exact same thing. If this were directed at a single combination of traits to make a person guessed at random, it would be more valid. However, no matter what the combinations of anything, the exact thing that happened is extremely unlikely. Also, about the sun thing, this area is so small for us because we evolved in this area. The real distance that could support life is much, much larger. You could make a video like this about a ROCK, and it would still be just as unlikely that the rock is exactly as it is and where it is. In short, I think this video is a cheap shot.

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Emrox responds:

I think it's neat, though, to imagine that if any one variable had been slightly changed, there would have been a completely different outcome at the end. The fact that there IS an outcome is pretty obvious, but the fact that the outcome was YOU specifically is unthinkably far less likely.


Rated 5 / 5 stars

... just one thing. there is a lot of people as special as you are, so, you are not that special after all. Quit being so selfish and start taking care of the people around you.


Rated 4.5 / 5 stars

darklord0211, it was also believed that the cells spawned from nothing, so what's your point?
It's also believes religion is a fact, by some people.

Either way, none have been completely proved.

Great little informative ''slideshow'', I always enjoy these, especially when the facts (or much-discussed theories) actually check out.

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