I said 'possible' because it is of low confidence.
Factors favoring cold weather across these areas include less active upward energy flux into the stratosphere due to persistently weak vortex (wave-1 split), a seemingly developing MJO in the western Pacific (phase 6-7) in a couple of weeks (though it could be false signal from La Nina). MJO in phase 6 to 7 favor colder western North America.
Timing appears in the early to mid-February.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-23 11:54:23
Gimme the layman speak, mack-daddy.
This mean I should or should not invest in a snowmobile?
RedSnake's the name, out of character and gae is the game.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-23 12:28:49
At 1/23/21 11:57 AM, Thor wrote: Cool maybe it'll finally snow here
Wishful thinking. The south remains warm.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-23 15:34:18
I'm heading up north in like 2 weeks, gonna find me some snow.
| It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose|||Love belongs to Desire, and Desire is always cruel.||||
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-27 23:59:24 (edited 2021-01-28 00:02:08)
This is the latest GFS 00z showing arctic air mass (in purple) migrating towards the northern US. It is only 10 days out. ECMWF has not begun to run yet so confidence is still not high. Regardless a good portion of the US will likely see the lowest temperature so far in winter.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-28 18:32:29
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-28 18:42:22
Update from New York: IT'S FUCKIN' COLD UP HERE!!!
RedSnake's the name, out of character and gae is the game.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-28 21:41:39
Great, just what I need when I'm already freezing my ass off.
I hate winter.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-28 21:44:39
2 years ago was the worst. -35*C plus wind, just kill me. Why do we always get screwed in February?
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-28 21:45:44
This cold outbreak will consist of a few rounds, lasting into the mid February. Uncertainty remains as to whether the cold will eventually reach the northeast coast. GFS suggests this possibility while the overall atmosphere suggest the bulk of cold air will be more confined to the west.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-28 21:52:41
Yes in the winter it's really fucking cold.
Sig by @Brokendeck
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-28 23:13:13
I presume this isn't ordinary, and that we should maybe prepare?
BLM | ANTIFA
Life's a performance, so give it your all like it's your last show.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-28 23:38:07
At 1/28/21 11:13 PM, Ryanson wrote: I presume this isn't ordinary, and that we should maybe prepare?
Not that extraordinary. It happens once or twice every year but ECMWF forecasts temps of 20-35 degree F below normal.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-29 10:22:08
At 1/23/21 03:14 PM, EternalJudge wrote: But I don't like the cold. Why you do this.
You leave me no choice but to use my connections to set up three nuclear power plants that do nothing but power an enormous array of space heaters.
The North America has been too warm since the beginning of 'winter'. It is time for winter to make a comeback.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-30 07:08:00
First round on 6/2. Temp close to -30C across part of the upper Midwest.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-30 12:18:22
Eh, it's just a little cold air anyway.
Surf Nazis must die! || Wi/Ht? #38
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-30 13:00:31
Breaking news: winter is cold
hello
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-30 15:45:33 (edited 2021-01-30 15:46:40)
At 1/30/21 01:00 PM, BUM-DRILLER wrote: Breaking news: winter is cold
Much below normal temps. Learn to read.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-01-30 15:56:50
At 1/30/21 03:45 PM, Sobolev wrote:At 1/30/21 01:00 PM, BUM-DRILLER wrote: Breaking news: winter is coldMuch below normal temps. Learn to read.
”Adjust to the new normal”
hello
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-02-01 09:32:38 (edited 2021-02-01 09:33:05)
The past few runs of CFS have been consistent in depicting anomalously cold western to central North America.
The past several runs of ECMWF have trended toward stronger Greenland blocking, more southerly route and increased cold surge into eastern US at later times.
The greatest cold anomaly still appears to be centered near the upper Midwest, where daily lows of -30F could be possible (30-40F below normal).
Another feature to watch is whether mid-level troughing develops at northwestern American. If so, then there is a distinct possibility of a second outbreak during mid-Feb.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-02-01 10:18:18
Mother nature is on the rag this week.
Also Celsius.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-02-01 10:21:02 (edited 2021-02-01 10:23:17)
At 2/1/21 10:18 AM, Prinzy2 wrote: Mother nature is on the rag this week.
Also Celsius.
It could be a lot worse than that, just take a look at Winnipeg...
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-02-01 10:27:55
At 2/1/21 10:21 AM, Sobolev wrote:At 2/1/21 10:18 AM, Prinzy2 wrote: Mother nature is on the rag this week.It could be a lot worse than that, just take a look at Winnipeg...
Also Celsius.
Bleh! Those are the days I wish I could work from home, and thankful I don't live in Yellowknife anymore.
One of my buddies lived in Cambridge Bay NU for a few years. It will feel like -52*C there on Saturday.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-02-06 08:50:27 (edited 2021-02-06 08:56:52)
Lots of uncertainty regarding the outlook for mid to late February.
Previous model runs have trended much colder in the southern US (especially Texas) but latest ECMWF run has backed off with the forecast, keeping the cold in the Midwest, during the middle of February.
On the balance, I am leaning toward the colder solution, bringing chances of sleet in northern to central Texas with daily highs in the 30-40F.
Longer term, with the disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex coming to an end, negative height anomalies should propagate downard toward late February. Overall atmosphere favors ridging across Eastern Siberia, troughing across Alaska and NW America, with a more zonal flow across North American continent, brining milder air stream to the region.
Below average to seasonal temperature is anticipated in West-Central Canada/US.
Recent CFS model run (surface temperature anomalies)
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-02-07 06:02:23 (edited 2021-02-07 06:02:34)
At 5am local time, Yellowknife NT recorded a temperature of -44C. The record low temperature for this day of the year is -45.6C (1947). Extreme cold warning is in effect across a large part of the west.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-02-08 10:20:11
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-02-13 11:20:06
Still cold in parts of western Canada (Regina: -38C) and the Northern Plains of the US. However, cold temperature will begin to moderate starting 2/16.
Thereafter, a much milder temperature trend is likely through the end of February, as negative height anomalies propage downwards due to the absence of significant wave flux, with the possible exception of northwestern/Arctic Canada.
The Greenland blocking is forecast to gradually weaken, allowing persistent mild westerly flow across the continent, as Arctic Oscillation (AO) index climbs back up to neutral.
This is supported by the observed cooling trend in the middle stratosphere and the latest (12/12z) ECMWF forecast.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-02-19 09:24:51
At last, negative anomalies make it to the surface. And with the main polar vortex centered in Canadian Arctic, the chance of another significant cold outbreak is unlikely in the next 2 weeks.
Model guidance have come into better agreement that a shortwave trough will propagate eastward downstream of Alaska high. Thus, a brief period of colder weather is forecast at this time. However, duration and magnitude of the cold air will be less than the previous cold outbreak. No further update will be given unless the situation changes.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-02-19 09:31:31
At 2/19/21 09:24 AM, Sobolev wrote:
At last, negative anomalies make it to the surface. And with the main polar vortex centered in Canadian Arctic, the chance of another significant cold outbreak is unlikely in the next 2 weeks.
I hope you're right. The weather network says in 2 weeks that we'll be going down to a high of -15 March 5th.
Next year I'm going to Mexico in February.
Response to Possible regional arctic outbreak across western Canada and the upper Midwest 2021-02-19 09:34:13 (edited 2021-02-19 09:36:35)
At 2/19/21 09:31 AM, Prinzy2 wrote:At 2/19/21 09:24 AM, Sobolev wrote:I hope you're right. The weather network says in 2 weeks that we'll be going down to a high of -15 March 5th.
At last, negative anomalies make it to the surface. And with the main polar vortex centered in Canadian Arctic, the chance of another significant cold outbreak is unlikely in the next 2 weeks.
Next year I'm going to Mexico in February.
Usually I am the one who is right. It is not advisable to take daily forecasts seriously beyond day 10 because I believe that these figures are just model outputs that could change greatly from day to day.
I use model outputs, my experience and judgement to make a forecast.
