Tropical Storm Dujuan (91W -> 01W)
The low pressure area developed a sufficiently defined LLC and organized convection for classification as a tropical cyclone. At 12z, the tropical storm is located approximately 300 miles east of Mindanao, Phillipines. A much earlier ASCAT pass shows broad swarth of 30 knot winds in the western quadrant. Subjective Dvorak classification is currently at T2.5/35kt, justifying an upgrade to a tropical storm of 35 knots. The system has tracked westward slowly inside an area of weak steering currents.
Animated visible imagery depicts a partially exposed LLC with deep convection confined to the northwest of the center, a result of persistent moderate SE'ly VWS (15-20 knots). At the same time, the mid-level center, while still being displaced westward, is now closer to the pocket of convection and the LLC, indicative of a slow consolidation trend.
As the system will remain on the southwestern periphery of a 200hPa anticyclone across the Pacific, VWS will continue to hamper development. By 60 hours, the system will reach a peak intensity of 50 knots and begin to make landfall over central Philippines on a northwesterly track.
In the extended range, TS Dujuan will move across the central part of South China Sea. VWS is expected to exceed 30 knots by then and the system is likely to degenerate into a low pressure area during recurvature to the north.