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2020 Typhoon/Hurricane Season

5,527 Views | 76 Replies

At 10/9/20 11:41 AM, SevenSeize4President wrote:
At 10/9/20 10:49 AM, Sobolev wrote: Science denial from the NHC
Science Denial from @Sobolev

That's ok---- ALL of the scientists and meteorologists and people with PhDs are WRONG and the random dude on newgrounds is most certainly right.

Super, SUPER arrogant dude.


There is no Cat 3 winds per recon...

They mentioned peak SFMR of 95 kt and FL winds of 107 too, in the discussion. So we are looking at the same data.

These plainly do not immediately support 115mph.


As I and another storm2k suggested, the decision to maintain Cat 3 status is simply because they want the public to be on high alert. They don't want to downgrade a storm near coast, but this decision is based on sociology rather than science.


If you want my honest opinion, in reality it is probably close to 105 mph. Does 10mph make a lot of difference? Probably not. But a change in Category does impact the public's perceived threats. So that's why they are inclined to keep it at 3 even though data only supports something less.


Other's opinion (not just mine)

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=121443&start=2480


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TD 17W and Tropical Wave

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Tropical Depression 17W, is located a couple of hundred miles east of Central Vietnam, is tracking westward.

Intensity is estimated at 30 knots based on 0.3-0.4 wrap seen on IR and microwave imagery.


It will continue to track westward and make landfall over Vietnam in about 24 hours. High moisture content and SST, as well as low (10-15 knots) easterly VWS will support intensification to 50 knots at the point of landfall.


iu_178603_779242.jpg

Besides, a tropical wave just east of Luzon is producing scattered deep convection. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development with low (10-15 knots) northeasterly shear and weak outflow the to west. It is located within deep tropical moisture. A track toward the west across Luzon is expected in the near term and tropical development is expected afterwards, in the South China Sea. The anticyclone currently inhibiting poleward outflow will slide eastward, enabling the system to tap into upper westerlies and develop further.


A general W to WNW is forecast across the central to northern part of SCS, closer toward Hainan Island.


Under the combined influence of the northeast monsoon and the tropical disturbance, it will be showery and windy across south China coast.


Track and intensity verification of Chan-hom

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Despite the large spread in global models, there was only a slight cross-track error and track forecast was better than average.


Intensity was also well-forecast. The maximum intensity was 75 knots, only 5 knots short of the forecast maximum intensity.


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At 10/9/20 11:41 AM, SevenSeize4President wrote:
At 10/9/20 10:49 AM, Sobolev wrote: Science denial from the NHC
Science Denial from @Sobolev

That's ok---- ALL of the scientists and meteorologists and people with PhDs are WRONG and the random dude on newgrounds is most certainly right.

Super, SUPER arrogant dude.


Determining intensities from aircraft data is not rocket science and I, as well as many others, are as qualified to give an estimate as the NHC. It wasn't a major and they knew it (they downgraded to Cat 2 shortly afterwards). In fact, many who regularly followed tropical cyclones knew it wasn't a major.


I consider myself well-learnt so calling me a random dude is a bit disparaging. But unlike NHC, I don't need deal with the psychological consequence of downgrading a storm near coast so I am free to give a true estimate of its actual intensity at all times.


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Response to 2020 Typhoon/Hurricane Season 2020-10-12 09:16:55


Tropical Storm Nangka (18W) and Invest 94W

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The tropical wave over Luzon has gradually developed into a tropical storm, and was named Nangka by the JMA today.

ASCAT pass at 00z reveal a closed circulation with 30 knot winds present in the NE quadrant.


The intensity at 12z is estimated at 40 knots based on Dvorak classification between T2.5 and T3.0 and SATCON at 38 knots.


Environmental conditions will remain favorable with warm (29C) SST, high moisture content, low (<10 knots) VWS and good westward outflow, until landfall over Hainan slightly more than 24 hours later. Poleward outflow appears to be developing also. The strengthening trend is thus expected to continue and the system will reach a peak intensity near 60 knots at landfall.


Interaction with Hainan Island will weaken the system to 50 knots. Nangka will move into the Gulf of Tonkin where slight reorganization is expected prior to a second landfall over northern Vietnam.


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Besides, disorganized convection associated with a broad surface trough and a mid-level circulation (Invest 94W) is seen on IR imagery. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for tropical development during the next couple of days before crossing into Central Philippines and a tropical cyclone is expected to form.


Anticyclonic outflow associated with TS Nangka could make upper level conditions less favorable in the South China Sea.


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Response to 2020 Typhoon/Hurricane Season 2020-10-19 08:40:06


Tropical Depression 19W

Tropical Depression 19W, located east of Philippines, is producing pulsating convection over its center. The initial intensity is estimated at 30 knots based on Dvorak estimate of T2.0, and slightly above SCATSAT winds of 25 knots at 01z.

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Upper level analysis reveals low to moderate (10-15 knots) easterly vertical wind shear (VWS), with upper easterlies producing outflow to the west. SST is conducive at 30C.


The system will continue on a general west to west-northwest track toward Luzon, while steadily intensify to a weak tropical storm. TD 19W will move into the South China Sea by 36 hours.


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An approaching upper level trough will enhance poleward outflow in the SCS and continued intensification is expected during 48-96 hours. This system will reach a peak of 70 knots (typhoon strength) in the central SCS.


Thereafter, dry entrainment from low-level cool northeast monsoon and increasing easterly VWS (from western flank of mid to upper level ridge) will gradually weaken the system to a tropical storm.


At this time, direct impacts are expected in Hainan Island and Vietnam. Elsewhere along the south China coast should be under the influence of a strong northeast monsoon with light rain patches.


With the expection of HWRF (which takes the system northward), the rest of the global models are in general agreement.


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Typhoon Saudel (former TD 19W)

The tropical depression that we have been watching has developed into a 70 knot typhoon. The intensity is based on T4.5/77kt Dvorak and SATCON values of 65 knots.


Attached below is official forecast from JTWC, in case someone is accusing me of confusing what I want to believe and what is real. Contrary to what you might think, I am perfectly capable of making a correct intensity estimate, even without recon data, despite occasional disagreement with NHC.

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Slight intensification is possible before VWS increases and low-level dry air entrains.


There is no change in both intensity and forecast track. Near gales are observed south of coastal China.


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West Pacific

Tropical Storm 21W

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Tropical Storm 21W, located a few hundred kilometers east of Central Philippines, has tracked westward over the past few hours. Infrared imagery shows a quickly consolidating system with well-organized cloud pattern with deep convection. Initial intensity at 12z is estimated at 35 knots, based on subjective Dvorak classification of T2.5/35kt and ADT of 32 knots. Steering maps (500-850mb) from CIMSS indicates the system is travelling along the south of the western extension of a subtropical ridge.


Upper level winds are favorable with dual channel outflow to the west and southeast and moderate (15 knots) VWS. Thermodynamic environment is favorable with SST near 30C and plenty of tropical moisture.


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The system will continue to track westward to west-northwestward during the next couple of days. Conducive environment and tight structure of the cyclone will enable it to strengthen to a minimal typhoon of 70 knots prior to landfall over Central Philippines in a little less than 48 hours. The system should maintain intensity until emergence over the Central South China Sea. Upper level environment could become less conducive with moderate (near 20 knots) VWS and mostly weak westward divergence along the southern portion of a building upper level anticyclone.


The most recent HWRF runs weaken the system a bit as it gains latitude, which should be regarded as erroneous, while the GFS predicts a mostly westward and faster track into Vietnam strengthens the cyclone a little more. Therefore, the forecast intensity continues to increase and it is expected to be a 80-kt typhoon when close to Vietnam.


North Atlantic

Invest 95L

Showers and thunderstorms show further signs of organization and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form within 24 hours, as the system remains slow moving in the Caribbean. Models are in stronger agreement of a north to northwest track during the next couple of days, with further intensification likely. Its subsequent evolution remains uncertain for the time being.


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Tropical Storm Zeta (formerly Invest 95L)

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Tropical Storm Zeta, has tracked northwestward during the past few hours. Visible imagery shows a sheared system with a partially exposed LLC displaced to the northwest of the central dense overcast. The intensity at 12z is estimated at 55 knots based on a blend of aircraft data and Subjective final T-number of 3.5.


The system will make landfall over Yutacan in about 12 hours. Marginally favorable upper level environment (consisting of good equatorial outflow and unfavorable VWS vector from the NW at 15 knots), offset by high SST, should fuel slight strengthening to an upper-end TS of 60 knots prior to landfall.

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Slight weakening to 50 knots is expected as the system crosses Mexico into the Gulf. Upper level wind will then become more conducive with shear vector in phase of direction of movement.


Zeta will then track northwest to northward along the western periphery of a building steering ridge. My track is placed closer to western envelop of track guidance in deference to the usually reliable ECMWF. The system will begin to recurve between an upper trough to the west and the western periphery of a re-oriented ridge, shortly before landfall over Louisiana.


Intensity forecast during this period is challenging. The GFS-based SHIPS indicate mid-level humidity of around 65% during the remainder of the forecast, with an increase in VWS to 20-25 knots just prior to landfall. SST will also decrease from 30C to 27C less than 24 hours before landfall. Thus a weakening trend is forecast after the system crosses into the northern part of Gulf of Mexico.


On the other hand, a more westerly track brings the system in closer contact with dry mid-level air and it is reasonable to anticipate some effects of mid-level dry entrainment.


Zeta should have 30 hours of more favorable environment to re-strengthen and my forecast brings it to a 70 knot hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico and predicts a landfall in south Louisiana as a 65 knot hurricane (Category 1). This is subjected to considerable uncertainty and subsequent revision may be necessary.


Rain bands should be concentrated close to or east of the center at landfall where rain totals of 100 mm will be possible.


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Response to 2020 Typhoon/Hurricane Season 2020-10-26 09:53:44


At 10/26/20 09:52 AM, Sobolev wrote: Tropical Storm Zeta (formerly Invest 95L)

Tropical Storm Zeta, has tracked northwestward during the past few hours. Visible imagery shows a sheared system with a partially exposed LLC displaced to the northwest of the central dense overcast. The intensity at 12z is estimated at 55 knots based on a blend of aircraft data and Subjective final T-number of 3.5.

The system will make landfall over Yutacan in about 12 hours. Marginally favorable upper level environment (consisting of good equatorial outflow and unfavorable VWS vector from the NW at 15 knots), offset by high SST, should fuel slight strengthening to an upper-end TS of 60 knots prior to landfall.

Slight weakening to 55 knots is expected as the system crosses Mexico into the Gulf. Upper level wind will then become more conducive with shear vector in phase of direction of movement.

Zeta will then track northwest to northward along the western periphery of a building steering ridge. My track is placed closer to western envelop of track guidance in deference to the usually reliable ECMWF. The system will begin to recurve between an upper trough to the west and the western periphery of a re-oriented ridge, shortly before landfall over Louisiana.

Intensity forecast during this period is challenging. The GFS-based SHIPS indicate mid-level humidity of around 65% during the remainder of the forecast, with an increase in VWS to 20-25 knots just prior to landfall. SST will also decrease from 30C to 27C less than 24 hours before landfall. Thus a weakening trend is forecast after the system crosses into the northern part of Gulf of Mexico.

On the other hand, a more westerly track brings the system in closer contact with dry mid-level air and it is reasonable to anticipate some effects of mid-level dry entrainment.

Zeta should have 30 hours of more favorable environment to re-strengthen and my forecast brings it to a 75 knot hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico and predicts a landfall in south Louisiana as a 70 knot hurricane (Category 1). This is subjected to considerable uncertainty and subsequent revision may be necessary.

Rain bands should be concentrated close to or east of the center at landfall where rain totals of 100 mm will be possible.


iu_185611_8146500.jpg


signature by jackho

BBS Signature

I'm not a meteorologist or anything, but by going on how this hurricane season has been doing, I feel like the forecast models of Zeta will probably nudge a little bit west, but not by a whole lot, this is basically a similar set-up to Delta earlier this month, exact set up. The only difference is that Zeta will be a tad faster than Delta in forward movement.


Right now, most models has it between New Orleans, LA to Mobile, AL, but like I said, it's still 2 1/2 days out, I think the center or the eye of Zeta (if it does nudge west) will pass somewhere between New Orleans, LA and Baton Rouge, LA. So, if this does happen, residents between both cities (New Orleans & Baton Rouge) will probably get the worst of Zeta.


I don't wish for this because since I do live in New Orleans, I'll get the bad side of the hurricane, since the east side is worst that the west side.


Typhoon Goni

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Typhoon Goni has maintained symmetrical deep convection above the microwave eye. There is a hint of a formative upper level eye on infrared imagery. The intensity at 12z is estimated at 85 knots based on Dvorak number T4.0/65kt to T5.0/90kt and ADT at 82 knots, though it could be conservative. Goni is undergoing a period of rapid intensification (RI) under favorable environment (good poleward outflow, warm SST, and very low VWS (5-10 knots).


Environment will continue to be conducive for the next couple of days and RI is expected to continue before upper trough that is fueling poleward outflow departs and VWS slightly increases. It is expected to reach a peak of 130 knots when east of Luzon at t=48 hours. A slight weakening trend is forecast during its approach to Luzon Island, but it is still expected to make landfall as a powerful typhoon of 115 knots.


iu_186895_779242.png

Goni will track west to west-southwestward in the next couple of days under steering to the subtropical ridges to the east and west respectively and make landfall over Luzon in about 3 days.


Increasing VWS partly associated with upper level outflow of developing Invest 90W will further weaken the system in the South China Sea.


Invest 90W

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Convection is showing organization above a somewhat defined and elongated low level center.

Upper level winds are currently marginal for development (northwesterly shear at 15-20 knots) and will only support slow organization during the next couple of days when tropical cyclone formation is likely, as it tracks northwestward along southwestern periphery of a mid level ridge.


Thereafter it should turn west-northwestward as the mid-level ridge builds westward. There is still uncertainty in its track with ECMWF depicting recurve.


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Tropical Storm Eta (29L)

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"L" marks the estimated center of TS Eta.


Eta rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane (130-135 kt) prior to landfall in Nicaragua on 3/11. Remarkably, it has explosively strengthened by 100 kt (from 35 kt TS to a 135 kt hurricane) in just 36 hours. The maximum intensity was attained at 03/03z with an estimated minimum pressure of 922 mb.


The remnant circulation then exited Central America and it is now located in the West Caribbean. At 12z today, Eta has re-strengthened to a 35 kt TS, based on Dvorak classification of T2.5. A reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating Eta and will provide more accurate estimates.


The original exposed center gave way to a new center that has reformed very recently underneath the edge of an extensive area of convection.


An upper level trough is inducing unfavorable westerly VWS at the mid and upper levels (near 30 knots) that is offset by warm SST (29C) and strong upper level divergence in the eastern quadrant. These are currently giving the storm an asymmetrical appearance.


Persistently high (>25 kt) of VWS should hamper development. Models also depict mid-level dry air from the trough encircling the system in the future. These are unfavorable factors for strengthening.


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The system should gradually intensify to 55 knots prior to Cuba landfall in about 24 hours. Terrain interaction should weaken it slightly to 50 knots when it emerged over the southwestern Atlantic shortly afterwards.


It will then turn northwestward and travel more slowly under the weaken steering influence of a mid-level ridge positioned to the northeast. The aforementioned unfavorable factors will continue to keep the system a strong TS (55 kt) through the 5 day forecast. My forecast track lies generally on the eastern edge of ECMWF ensembles, in anticipation of strong westerly shear that will keep the LLC tucked just underneath deep convection.


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Dry air entrainment will give the system a less tropical look, with heavy rainfall risks a potential concern due to slower movement across the south of Florida. WPC forecasts a low risk of flash flooding across south Florida.


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Response to 2020 Typhoon/Hurricane Season 2020-11-07 09:49:44


At 11/7/20 09:44 AM, Sobolev wrote: Tropical Storm Eta (29L)

"L" marks the estimated center of TS Eta.

Eta rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane (130-135 kt) prior to landfall in Nicaragua on 3/11. Remarkably, it has explosively strengthened by 100 kt (from 35 kt TS to a 135 kt hurricane) in just 36 hours. The maximum intensity was attained at 03/03z with an estimated minimum pressure of 922 mb.

The remnant circulation then exited Central America and it is now located in the West Caribbean. At 12z today, Eta has re-strengthened to a 35 kt TS, based on Dvorak classification of T2.5. A reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating Eta and will provide more accurate estimates.

The original exposed center gave way to a new center that has reformed very recently underneath the edge of an extensive area of convection.

An upper level trough is inducing unfavorable westerly VWS at the mid and upper levels (near 30 knots) that is offset by warm SST (29C) and strong upper level divergence in the eastern quadrant. These are currently giving the storm an asymmetrical appearance.

Persistently high (>25 kt) of VWS should hamper development. Models also depict mid-level dry air from the trough encircling the system in the future. These are unfavorable factors for strengthening.

The system should gradually intensify to 55 knots prior to Cuba landfall in about 24 hours. Terrain interaction should weaken it slightly to 50 knots when it emerged over the southwestern Atlantic shortly afterwards.

It will then turn northwestward and travel more slowly under the weaken steering influence of a mid-level ridge positioned to the northeast. The aforementioned unfavorable factors will continue to keep the system a strong TS (55 kt) through the 5 day forecast. My forecast track lies generally on the eastern edge of ECMWF ensembles, in anticipation of strong westerly shear that will keep the LLC tucked just underneath deep convection.

Dry air entrainment will give the system a less tropical look, with heavy rainfall risks a potential concern due to slower movement across the south of Florida. WPC forecasts a low risk of flash flooding across south Florida.



signature by jackho

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Special Update on TS Eta (29L)

iu_191311_779242.jpg


Aircraft data indicates that the LLC is tucked further into the vigorous and organizing convection and the current storm intensity is far above the previous estimate. Maximum SFMR so far was 55 kt and maximum flight level winds (925 mb) was 60 kt. Both are found within the deep convective banding just north of the new LLC. In addition, due to re-position of LLC, subjective Dvorak estimate is now at T3.5. Thus, the system is assessed at 55 kt at 15z.


The revised initial intensity has resulted in a forecast that brings Eta to a Category 1 hurricane (70 kt) at the time of landfall. Some weakening to a low-end hurricane of 65 kt is possible as the system tracks over Cuba and exits into Stratis of Florida. Thereafter, intensity forecast remains largely unchanged at long term.


Hurricane conditions cannot be ruled out across south Florida at this time.


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Response to 2020 Typhoon/Hurricane Season 2020-11-11 04:43:14


Typhoon Vamco & TS Eta

iu_192898_779242.jpg

Typhoon Vamco is about to make landfall over Central Philippines. Current intensity at 09z is estimated at 85 knots, based on Dvorak classification of T5.0/90kt and microwave estimates of 85kt.


After landfall it will track west to westnorthwest across central South China Sea toward Vietnam.


Upper level environment should be moderately favorable with occasional dry intrusions and moderate (15 kt) southeasterly VWS while SST will fall to around 27C in the South China Sea. These factors will support maintenance of typhoon status before landfall in Vietnam.


iu_192896_779242.png


Meanwhile, TS Eta in the Gulf of Mexico has slightly strengthened during the past few hours. Current intensity is estimated at 60 kt based on earlier flight reconnaissance data and improved structure. A mid-level eye is visible on Key West radar.

iu_192897_779242.jpg

Additional strengthening to a Category 1 hurricane is possible today but VWS is expected to increase shortly afterwards

On the current forecast, the center will make landfall over central Florida in about 36 hours as a tropical storm.

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Response to 2020 Typhoon/Hurricane Season 2020-12-08 08:27:31


MJO is currently located in the Maritime continent (phase 4 to 5). It is forecast to destructively interfere with La Nina base state. Models aren't particularly bullish with tropical development and no TC is expected to form in the next 2 weeks,


Preliminary 2020 typhoon/hurricane season statistics

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Super Typhoon Goni was the strongest tropical cyclone this year, with an estimated wind speed of 170 knots per JTWC. I would estimate the intensity at 165 knots based on Dvorak numbers between 7.5 ad 8.0 with deference to SATCON at slightly above 160 knots. This estimate is subject to uncertainty since there had been no direct observation.

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The North Atlantic has seen a record high number of named storms (30) although the ACE is not among the highest due to multiple weak systems throughout the season.


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Response to 2020 Typhoon/Hurricane Season 2020-12-19 07:51:47


Late Season TD 99W forms west of the Philippines

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Deep convection persists over the loosely defined center of Invest 99W. The system has gained organization since day time and it is unofficially upgraded to a TD based on Dvorak number of T1.5/25kt.


CIMSS data reveals the system is being affected by moderately strong southerly VWS and there is no sign that the shear would abate in the future. SST is the area is around 28 degrees Celsius and is slightly above normal.


Marginal conditions will favor slow development over the next couple of days as the system continues to track westward along an extending ridge axis. Beyond, it will encounter cooler SST and dry mid-level air, and will weaken gradually to a remnant low.


The peak forecast intensity is 35 knots (minimal TS).


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