Be a Supporter!

***French Election Predictions***

  • 1,848 Views
  • 83 Replies
New Topic Respond to this Topic
Ranger2
Ranger2
  • Member since: Jan. 28, 2006
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 05
Blank Slate

On April 23, the French will go to the polls to determine their new president. If no candidate receives a majority, there will be a runoff on May 7.

So I'd like to get your opinions. Who will win, and who will survive to run in the runoff election (if there is one)?

The candidates are as follows:

-Benoit Hamon, Socialist Party. Running as a successor to the unpopular Francois Hollande.
-Francois Fillon, Republican Party. Similar views as Nicolas Sarkozy.
-Marine le Pen, National Front. A far-right candidate who wants to take France out of the Eurozone and NATO, and nix immigration.
-Emmanuel Macron, En Marche. A centrist, third-way candidate.

It's a guess, but I believe if there is a runoff, Marine le Pen will win. The right wing is too far spread and diverse, and there is genuine fear in France due to terrorist attacks. She may win for the same reasons Trump did. I hope I'm wrong, but this past year has upended all conventional wisdom.

EdyKel
EdyKel
  • Member since: Dec. 11, 2009
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Moderator
Level 26
Gamer
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-15 00:39:05 Reply

I'm rooting for Emmanuel Macron. I think he has a chance. But it will most likely be a close race.

SolidPantsSnake
SolidPantsSnake
  • Member since: Sep. 22, 2008
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 03
Blank Slate
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-15 05:11:44 Reply

At 4/14/17 10:24 PM, Ranger2 wrote:
It's a guess, but I believe if there is a runoff, Marine le Pen will win. The right wing is too far spread and diverse, and there is genuine fear in France due to terrorist attacks. She may win for the same reasons Trump did. I hope I'm wrong, but this past year has upended all conventional wisdom.

Pretty much my thoughts as well. Polls are showing people in favor of stricter immigration with a minority in favor of things staying the way they are.

***French Election Predictions***


I'm the guy with the funny name.

BBS Signature
Gutnacht
Gutnacht
  • Member since: Feb. 21, 2017
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 03
Melancholy
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-15 07:10:32 Reply

Vote for Le Pen, or Europe is fucked.

DamnedByFate
DamnedByFate
  • Member since: Jan. 14, 2008
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 40
Blank Slate
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-15 09:34:05 Reply

At 4/14/17 10:24 PM, Ranger2 wrote: It's a guess, but I believe if there is a runoff, Marine le Pen will win

I think if there is a runoff, Le Pen will lose. The sane right-wing choice would be Fillon, but he won't make it due to that corruption scandal. Le Pen is so far off that I can really see everyone else uniting against her.

Hamon is hardly ever even reported on (which really frustrates me as a far left leaning person), so I'll make an educated guess and say it'll be Macron in the end.


You can't fight for peace. If you fight, there ain't peace. NO, I'M NOT AMERICAN!
On every ship that floats and sails, there's someone who the captain nails.
Sig by Decky.

BBS Signature
lapis
lapis
  • Member since: Aug. 11, 2004
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Supporter
Level 26
Melancholy

At 4/14/17 10:24 PM, Ranger2 wrote: -Benoit Hamon, Socialist Party. Running as a successor to the unpopular Francois Hollande.
-Francois Fillon, Republican Party. Similar views as Nicolas Sarkozy.
-Marine le Pen, National Front. A far-right candidate who wants to take France out of the Eurozone and NATO, and nix immigration.
-Emmanuel Macron, En Marche. A centrist, third-way candidate.

Apparently far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon is also making a last-minute splash. (Far-left even by French standards, I mean even Hamon would be comfortably to the left of someone like Bernie Sanders.)

The fact that someone like Mélenchon, who was considered a fringe figure a couple of years ago, is now apparently a serious contender shows how fed up people are with 'politics as usual', to borrow a term. That could be bad news for Macron: if support for him is so fragile people who say they'll vote for him in polls could just not turn up at the polls or switch sides, even from Macron to Le Pen unlikely as that might sound.

Going by the available info, the best prediction at this stage is a Macron/Le Pen run-off, won by Macron. But the polls could be way off - when voters are wavering an upset as with Trump or Cameron in 2015 is likely. So it's anyone's guess really.

RightTime
RightTime
  • Member since: Nov. 22, 2016
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Supporter
Level 15
Writer
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-18 05:01:31 Reply

A lot of people in French and International media are saying that if Le Pen wins the EU's days are numbered. The EU always had a stronger argument to make for economic integration as opposed to political integration. The fact that it hasn't delivered on either set of promises in the last ten years perhaps made the dissolution of the EU inevitable. I don't think dissolving the EU and going it alone are going to solve these issues any better though, but that's hardly an argument for staying in.

There's a pretty obvious argument to be made for political autonomy and border security. These are both important issues, but I think if we're being honest with ourselves these are not the main reasons why Le Pen might win in France. Instead its more or an economic issue. Unemployment rates remain stubbornly high there, especially for the youngest job seekers. Wages are stagnant for most workers and starting a new business is more difficult and time consuming than it is in most other major economies. Terrorism is a threat as well, but I think if unemployment was 5% in France Le Pen would be much less likely to win.

It's tempting to believe that populist politicians are being elected all over the world all for the same reason. While there are definitely some common threads running through them, the thing that links these populists together is not so much ideology as a certain basic mantra. They are all saying in effect: I'm and outsider. I understand the average citizen. I can fix this. Citizens have been dissatisfied with business as usual of their establishment politicians for some time and they're finally making their dissatisfaction known by voting these people in. Sanders was as much a populist as Trump and although Conservative Populist politicians currently have the momentum I suspect you are going to start seeing their liberal counterparts pop up as well.

Jackho
Jackho
  • Member since: Dec. 20, 2008
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Supporter
Level 36
Movie Buff
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-18 15:05:54 Reply

After Brexit and Trump I'm totally placing my bets on Le Pen. Though I could see the US election scaring enough people into actually voting and rallying against her.


BBS Signature
Tony-DarkGrave
Tony-DarkGrave
  • Member since: Jul. 15, 2006
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 49
Programmer
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-18 15:43:31 Reply

At 4/18/17 03:05 PM, Jackho wrote: After Brexit and Trump I'm totally placing my bets on Le Pen. Though I could see the US election scaring enough people into actually voting and rallying against her.

with some of the recent terror attacks in europe on top of it too. I would give Le Pen a strong MAYBE. but theres going to be a strong push to the right but not that far.

Moblin
Moblin
  • Member since: Mar. 3, 2014
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 07
Artist
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-18 16:53:27 Reply

Yup, I'm scared. Le Pen got a lot of votes last elections and now with the fear of Immigration and terrorism haunting the people of France she'll have an even bigger chance of winning. So I kinda expect her to be a nominee, though her becoming a nominee may push more people to vote so everything can happen I guess.

Tony-DarkGrave
Tony-DarkGrave
  • Member since: Jul. 15, 2006
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 49
Programmer
lapis
lapis
  • Member since: Aug. 11, 2004
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Supporter
Level 26
Melancholy
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-20 14:27:53 Reply

What's up with the US celebrity endorsements for Mélenchon? Noam Chomsky's thumbs up doesn't surprise me, but what about Danny Glover, Mark Ruffalo, Oliver Stone, and Pamela Anderson?

Funny how Pamela Anderson and Brigitte Bardot apparently share animal rights activism but not quite their choice of French presidential candidate (Mélenchon vs. Le Pen).

ChazDude
ChazDude
  • Member since: Jun. 20, 2013
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Supporter
Level 07
Artist
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-20 17:58:35 Reply

At 4/18/17 03:05 PM, Jackho wrote: I could see the US election scaring enough people into actually voting and rallying against her.

That is pretty much what happened in Austria.


The word 'tosser' is tossed around a lot these days.
For newbies . Art advice . Feel free to follow (up to you I suppose)
£$€!

BBS Signature
SolidPantsSnake
SolidPantsSnake
  • Member since: Sep. 22, 2008
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 03
Blank Slate
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-20 19:41:49 Reply

At 4/20/17 02:27 PM, SumQuodEris wrote: What's up with the US celebrity endorsements for Mélenchon? Noam Chomsky's thumbs up doesn't surprise me, but what about Danny Glover, Mark Ruffalo, Oliver Stone, and Pamela Anderson?

Funny how Pamela Anderson and Brigitte Bardot apparently share animal rights activism but not quite their choice of French presidential candidate (Mélenchon vs. Le Pen).

Hollywood is one giant leftist circle jerk. If they actually want him to win they should stay out of it. Celebs getting involved in the 2016 election didn't help Hillary.


I'm the guy with the funny name.

BBS Signature
Ranger2
Ranger2
  • Member since: Jan. 28, 2006
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 05
Blank Slate
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-20 22:16:33 Reply

So a shooting occurred in Paris today, committed by two men whom ISIS has claimed as their own.

A spree of attacks in Paris can only tilt the scales more in Le Pen's favor. Although as Chazdude said, Austrian moderates won over the far-right in their election, their country has not faced the level of attacks France has--possibly because it's not a member of NATO.

This can't be good.

DamnedByFate
DamnedByFate
  • Member since: Jan. 14, 2008
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 40
Blank Slate
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-21 10:34:24 Reply

At 4/20/17 10:16 PM, Ranger2 wrote: So a shooting occurred in Paris today, committed by two men whom ISIS has claimed as their own.

My cynical self can't let go of the suspicion that this was a Le Pen supporter trying to sway the election in her favour.


You can't fight for peace. If you fight, there ain't peace. NO, I'M NOT AMERICAN!
On every ship that floats and sails, there's someone who the captain nails.
Sig by Decky.

BBS Signature
lapis
lapis
  • Member since: Aug. 11, 2004
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Supporter
Level 26
Melancholy
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-21 11:43:33 Reply

At 4/21/17 10:34 AM, DamnedByFate wrote:
At 4/20/17 10:16 PM, Ranger2 wrote: So a shooting occurred in Paris today, committed by two men whom ISIS has claimed as their own.
My cynical self can't let go of the suspicion that this was a Le Pen supporter trying to sway the election in her favour.

'Karim Cheurfi'?

Moblin
Moblin
  • Member since: Mar. 3, 2014
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 07
Artist
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-22 03:04:16 Reply

At 4/21/17 11:43 AM, SumQuodEris wrote:
At 4/21/17 10:34 AM, DamnedByFate wrote:
At 4/20/17 10:16 PM, Ranger2 wrote: So a shooting occurred in Paris today, committed by two men whom ISIS has claimed as their own.
My cynical self can't let go of the suspicion that this was a Le Pen supporter trying to sway the election in her favour.
'Karim Cheurfi'?

Yeah it seems pretty unlikely that an Algerian named Karim Cheufri supports Le Pen, but you never know. Though I think Cheufri was just another radicalized muslim brainwashed to fuck shit up without any particular motives.

DamnedByFate
DamnedByFate
  • Member since: Jan. 14, 2008
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 40
Blank Slate
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-22 10:29:51 Reply

At 4/21/17 11:43 AM, SumQuodEris wrote: 'Karim Cheurfi'?

"Damn Turks." - a co-worker of my mother's, referring to his parents. Anything is possible.


You can't fight for peace. If you fight, there ain't peace. NO, I'M NOT AMERICAN!
On every ship that floats and sails, there's someone who the captain nails.
Sig by Decky.

BBS Signature
satanbrain
satanbrain
  • Member since: Dec. 6, 2007
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 51
Melancholy
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-23 03:41:44 Reply

If Filon passes first round, he'll win the presidency. If not, we shall see La Pen triumphant.


"What seest thou else. In the dark backward and abysm of time?"

BBS Signature
Tony-DarkGrave
Tony-DarkGrave
  • Member since: Jul. 15, 2006
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 49
Programmer

I had to look but apparently Paris is 6 hours ahead of me. fucking timezones man.

anyways French election LIVE: 'I just voted Le Pen for a laugh, people need a scare'

Tony-DarkGrave
Tony-DarkGrave
  • Member since: Jul. 15, 2006
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 49
Programmer
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-23 10:16:45 Reply

they're starting the exit polls

Tony-DarkGrave
Tony-DarkGrave
  • Member since: Jul. 15, 2006
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 49
Programmer
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-23 11:53:20 Reply

At 4/23/17 11:40 AM, MrPerciePercy wrote: It probably just be some obscure frenchman we can't remember, it always is.

sacre bleu!

DamnedByFate
DamnedByFate
  • Member since: Jan. 14, 2008
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 40
Blank Slate
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-23 12:55:49 Reply

At 4/23/17 11:40 AM, MrPerciePercy wrote: It probably just be some obscure frenchman we can't remember, it always is.

I say, the bloody French!


You can't fight for peace. If you fight, there ain't peace. NO, I'M NOT AMERICAN!
On every ship that floats and sails, there's someone who the captain nails.
Sig by Decky.

BBS Signature
Tony-DarkGrave
Tony-DarkGrave
  • Member since: Jul. 15, 2006
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 49
Programmer
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-23 13:05:28 Reply

if Le Penn wins this I wonder what that bitch Merkel will say.

SolidPantsSnake
SolidPantsSnake
  • Member since: Sep. 22, 2008
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 03
Blank Slate

Looks like it will be La Pen vs Macron in the second round.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/23/french-election-live-results-exit-polls/

Based on exit polls ATM La Pen will make it through the first round in second place.

Also if you want to keep up with the election live sky news has a live feed up.

I'm just watching some youtuber's stream though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgIPflXzSms

In about 10 minutes we should see the results instead of just the polls.


I'm the guy with the funny name.

BBS Signature
Tony-DarkGrave
Tony-DarkGrave
  • Member since: Jul. 15, 2006
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 49
Programmer

looks like its going to be a few point spread somewhere between 2-4%

Tony-DarkGrave
Tony-DarkGrave
  • Member since: Jul. 15, 2006
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 49
Programmer
Response to ***French Election Predictions*** 2017-04-23 15:01:39 Reply

so we have to wait till the beginning of May? and the UK's isn't till June. FUUUUUCK.

SolidPantsSnake
SolidPantsSnake
  • Member since: Sep. 22, 2008
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Member
Level 03
Blank Slate

Grabbed a screencap of the final results for those too lazy to google them.

Well it's going to be La pen vs Macron in round 2. La Pen came in second by only 1% in the first round. She'll have to win over the moderates to win round 2.

***French Election Predictions***


I'm the guy with the funny name.

BBS Signature
lapis
lapis
  • Member since: Aug. 11, 2004
  • Offline.
Forum Stats
Supporter
Level 26
Melancholy

At 4/23/17 03:15 PM, SolidPantsSnake wrote: Well it's going to be La pen vs Macron in round 2. La Pen came in second by only 1% in the first round. She'll have to win over the moderates to win round 2.

Fillon has endorsed Macron, and the others (Mélenchon and Hamon) will do or have done likewise. It'll be Le Pen against everyone else in the final round. Honestly, barring major upheaval I don't think she can get more than 40% in the final vote. But I thought the same about Trump so we'll see.