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What are the odds?

rated 4.47 / 5 stars
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Dec 14, 2012 | 6:07 PM EST
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Author Comments

Update: I made this when I was fifteen. Settle down.

circa 2012:

BEFORE YOU LEAVE A REVIEW, take this with a grain of salt- many of the "facts" here are purely theoretical and unquantifiable, as is the exact odds of your existence. This animation was created to entertain, and lots of my research has been simplified to reach a greater audience (not to say it isn't accurate, however, it's all as accurate as I could ever get). So don't get all science-y on me, I'm not a professional science-y guy. I just googled some data and multiplied it all together for your amusement. ~Enjoy!

Originally created for NATA 2012, which I ended up winning. Rad!

So this one's actually been finished for a while now, but I didn't have the chance to upload it because of some video file conversion issues, which were resolved by my good pal Ricepirate (thanks!) It's way different than anything else I've ever done, but I think you'll enjoy it anyway :)

So a quick word on the tournament this was for-
I had 25 days to make this, so naturally I saved pretty much all of it for the last week or so. Then a series of increasingly misfortunate things happened, such as my graphics tablet breaking, not being able to find my files, and accidentally overwriting half of my movie seven hours before the deadline. Somehow I managed to pull all the pieces back together, and as luck would have it, I came in first place for the round. My direct opponent for that round, Slackman, came in a close second, which means if I had gotten any lower than first, I would have lost before the semi-finals.

What are the odds?



Rated 2.5 / 5 stars

I disagree. The chances of me being alive are 100%
Whist techincally true, the point proposed by this video is garbage.
What are the odds of every atom on Earth being in the exact relative positions, with exact same roation? Even larger.
Yet these chances don't matter because they are not placed individualy.
In fact, there are no chances. All of this is following cause and effect.

However. the point would be valid if someone would propose that we are under some higher guidance. And would signify the effort, manual changes needed to make "us" happen supernaturaly.

1/4 for the pretty animation though


Rated 2.5 / 5 stars

What about this: My existance is not a problem of odds, but a problem of time evolution. There is no such thing as odds, only facts, and facts are straight forward. Good try tho. Life does not deserve to be appreciated, for that we are forced to live. There is no escape (I presume that hell exists, so another life after this life is still not an escape to your existence.)


Rated 2 / 5 stars

This is really artfully, professionally put together nonsense. Aside from the fact that the numbers you use seem to bear no resemblance to reality, the video doesn't really seem to grasp exactly what probability is and what its used for.

To take it to its logical extreme, a bacteria in my stomach is one of uncountable in the world. For it to have existed, by your reasoning I would have had to existed (so we start with that ridiculously small probability from the end of your video), and then all the generations of bacteria that have existed in my stomach to produce it would have had to work out exactly the same way (an astoundingly unlikely event by the way you calculate things). So that individual bacteria both more unique and luckier than I am. But bacteria are not unique, special or lucky; they are commonplace and banal, and far more common than humans, with far less distinguishing marks. Tracing a specific chain of events to lead up to an individual bacteria gives undue importance to vagaries of chance, and conceals the fact that innumerably other paths would have led to very nearly the same situation: me and my bacteria-filled gullet.


Rated 2 / 5 stars

What are the odds for the author of this video to source from books other then religious ones? ;]
they are 1 times [all books avalialbe in the world in every language], therefore spaghetti monster exists.

Nice animation though.

Emrox responds:

I did read one super-preachy book that I had to draw a few facts from which you can find in the sources. The rest was gathered from a variety of websites.


Rated 2 / 5 stars

I do recall seeing this done as a flowchart some time long before this.