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What are the odds?

rated 4.47 / 5 stars
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Dec 14, 2012 | 6:07 PM EST
  • Frontpaged December 17, 2012
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Author Comments

Update: I made this when I was fifteen. Settle down.

circa 2012:

BEFORE YOU LEAVE A REVIEW, take this with a grain of salt- many of the "facts" here are purely theoretical and unquantifiable, as is the exact odds of your existence. This animation was created to entertain, and lots of my research has been simplified to reach a greater audience (not to say it isn't accurate, however, it's all as accurate as I could ever get). So don't get all science-y on me, I'm not a professional science-y guy. I just googled some data and multiplied it all together for your amusement. ~Enjoy!

Originally created for NATA 2012, which I ended up winning. Rad!

So this one's actually been finished for a while now, but I didn't have the chance to upload it because of some video file conversion issues, which were resolved by my good pal Ricepirate (thanks!) It's way different than anything else I've ever done, but I think you'll enjoy it anyway :)

So a quick word on the tournament this was for-
I had 25 days to make this, so naturally I saved pretty much all of it for the last week or so. Then a series of increasingly misfortunate things happened, such as my graphics tablet breaking, not being able to find my files, and accidentally overwriting half of my movie seven hours before the deadline. Somehow I managed to pull all the pieces back together, and as luck would have it, I came in first place for the round. My direct opponent for that round, Slackman, came in a close second, which means if I had gotten any lower than first, I would have lost before the semi-finals.

What are the odds?



Rated 5 / 5 stars

yah! disproves evolution!!!

Emrox responds:



Rated 4 / 5 stars

About the statistics, no matter how big you make the number there will always be an outcome, so no matter how unlikely it may seem to be the 1 out of 1,000,000,000,000 or whatever, there will be one, and when we are talking about a single path, like life and existence, the odds don't really matter. It's not like winning the lottery where everyone else lost, it's like winning the lottery and suddenly no other lottery ticket or number ever existed, it's not a chance of 1 in 1000 various things happening, it's more like a 100% chance for what happened to have happened, no matter how the universe changes, what has happened will always have been what happened, and no matter how much you try to avoid fate, what you do defines what happens, it doesn't define what could have happened. However, I do question the logic of how a single celled organism can spawn from nothingness, how exactly do we have that statistic? Life can't come from non-life, I am fairly certain about that. Then you got the 1 in 10,000 chance of evolution resulting in mankind (especially the specific mankind of today, ie: extremely small or no variations), which couldn't be more wrong, if unlimited possibilities are present then that number would be incredibly huge, much larger than the 1 with 900,000 zeros at the end. The fact that mutations (The loss or movement of information, ie: not a fish growing a foot, but instead a fish growing an extra fin) are extremely unlikely to spawn an organism that not only is not weaker than their parents in an environment suited to their parents, but even stronger and more able to survive in said environment somehow, then for that creature to find a mate with similar mutations. The list goes on.

Whatever, the point is that it's a cool video but the statistics are completely off. We shouldn't believe everything we see on the internet, I know that means you have no more reason to believe me but common sense must be used.

The video was very well animated, very well voiced and was extremely smooth though.

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Emrox responds:

ow my brain.

I suppose "inanimate nothingness" probably wasn't the best choice of words there- what I was trying to convey was the creation of a biotic organism from all previously abiotic matter, but with less scientific terminology so anyone watching the movie could understand what I meant. The key here is the word "inanimate," not the "nothing," because there was clearly "something" to create life.

As for the evolutionary bit, I was actually cheating a little- the "50,000 generations of your lineage" goes back quite a bit farther than the sperm and the egg (and thereby covers the same ground as the evolutionary statistic), which is probably a whole lot larger, but it was still worth a mention.


Rated 4.5 / 5 stars

I have no qualms with the flash (was pretty cool, liked the style, 4.5 stars), But jeez people learn what statistics ARE. Just because you are alive doesn't make the chances of it happening 1. It just means that the very unlikely chain of events causing you to exist DID happen, and all the other equally unlikely events didn't. If you picked 5 numbers from the air, they have the same chance of winning the lottery today as next week. But if you win, it doesn't make the probability 1. There is NO SUCH THING as a probability of 1 because we can't be absolutely certain of ANYTHING.
Unless you happen to be a creationist.
In which case, go ahead and believe in your magic pixies. This flash prbably went way over your incomprehensibly tiny little brain anyway.


Rated 1.5 / 5 stars

I hate these pseudostatistical model of a concept that doesn't actually boil down to mere mathimatical chance. You cannot, without substaintial fault, accurately measure such an odd. There are factors. even outside the realm of choice, that are immeasurable. And to think anyone possess the capacity to quantify the odds of "being alive" is wholly insulting the merit of the science community. This is careless sensationalism, and your 1.5 stars are for sheer programming ability,

Your creativity was limited to the many regurgitated cinematographic and typographic techniques abused by mainstream marketing and design professionals, and your message was utterly incorrect.

Emrox responds:

Alright, I updated the description a bit to explain myself.


Rated 3 / 5 stars

I have to respect the work that went into making this video, but it ignored the crucial fact that if other people met, it would still be talking to them and saying the exact same thing. If this were directed at a single combination of traits to make a person guessed at random, it would be more valid. However, no matter what the combinations of anything, the exact thing that happened is extremely unlikely. Also, about the sun thing, this area is so small for us because we evolved in this area. The real distance that could support life is much, much larger. You could make a video like this about a ROCK, and it would still be just as unlikely that the rock is exactly as it is and where it is. In short, I think this video is a cheap shot.

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Emrox responds:

I think it's neat, though, to imagine that if any one variable had been slightly changed, there would have been a completely different outcome at the end. The fact that there IS an outcome is pretty obvious, but the fact that the outcome was YOU specifically is unthinkably far less likely.