Zimbabwe is in for a real shitstorm

[Gunter45]

Mugabe, the selfsame man with legions of guerrillas and death squads at his beck and call, has made statements about forming his own government. Quite the terrifying turn of events in a country where people already spend their daily lives in hiding.

If any, what should the international community's involvement be in this situation? America's?

[ThePretenders]

Lol, Zimbabwe is finished. Inflation is at 2,200,000%, people can't even spend their daily wages because their real wages are decreased by the end of the day. It used to be the bread basket of Africa, and now it's the basket case.

As for international intervention, countries other than the UK should mediate between ZANU-PF and the MDC. Many Zimbabweans believe that the MDC is a British front to recolonise it again. The EU, USA and the UN should promote peace and stability in the region by sending peacekeepers to Zimbabwe if Robert Mugabe dies and there is political unrest, but the country that can exert the most influence is South Africa. Mugabe and the ANC share a history of protecting each other when they were fighting as liberation fighters. The words of Thabo Mbeki carry more weight than the words of Gordon Brown or George Bush.

[MortifiedPenguins]

At 8/27/08 05:13 PM, Jezuz wrote: Two words, and one acronym: C.I.A. assassination plot.

He shows his face in public far too frequently. He would be an easy target for a trained sniper.

CIA hasn't had a really succesfull track record of assassination attempts.

Simple answer: nothing.

Let the country run it's course, we all know there's going to be a uprising, cou, revolution whatever. Eventually, in a week, month, year or decade there's going to be a changing of government and that is when America goes in.

We go in an a humanitarian mission, with the international community, help establish a democratic country and leave.

And especcially let the people of Zimbabwe choice thier own futures.

[Saruman200]

At 8/27/08 05:13 PM, Jezuz wrote: Two words, and one acronym: C.I.A. assassination plot.

He shows his face in public far too frequently. He would be an easy target for a trained sniper.

Because that wouldn't set off an international shitstorm *rolls eyes*. Assassinating world leaders is a big no-no, unless you want the US to lose what international credibility it still has.

[Blasphem-E]

At 8/27/08 10:14 PM, Saruman200 wrote:

At 8/27/08 05:13 PM, Jezuz wrote: Two words, and one acronym: C.I.A. assassination plot.

He shows his face in public far too frequently. He would be an easy target for a trained sniper.

Because that wouldn't set off an international shitstorm *rolls eyes*. Assassinating world leaders is a big no-no, unless you want the US to lose what international credibility it still has.

I'm guessing he didn't mean the that the U.S. would own up to it. Besides, if it's done with some stealth you could make it look like a natural death.

However, South Africa needs to get involved here. The U.S. has currently lost most of it's international credibility and likely wouldn't be greeted well if it intervened.

[Gunter45]

At 8/27/08 09:24 PM, MortifiedPenguins wrote: Let the country run it's course, we all know there's going to be a uprising, cou, revolution whatever.

This is my sentiment. I'm not against an international body sending peacekeepers. When it comes to revolutions, I believe that other countries do have just cause in aiding the side they deem appropriate.

In this case, however, I fail to see what good it will do. Either we're on the side of a broken system or for a brutal dictator. There's no winning this one and the country is either going to fall under a murderous regime or continue towards complete and total economic collapse.

In either case, I don't think the US wants anywhere near it.

I like ThePretender's comment about South Africa getting involved. South Africa is in a position to help and it's always nice to see countries backing up their neighbors. However, seeing as how times are tough all around the whole region, I don't realistically see much aid coming from there. I mean, being in such close proximity, I can see South Africa trying to distance themselves in order to avoid getting dragged down by them.

[ThePretenders]

At 8/28/08 01:05 PM, Gunter45 wrote: I like ThePretender's comment about South Africa getting involved. South Africa is in a position to help and it's always nice to see countries backing up their neighbors. However, seeing as how times are tough all around the whole region, I don't realistically see much aid coming from there. I mean, being in such close proximity, I can see South Africa trying to distance themselves in order to avoid getting dragged down by them.

I know South Africa is going through a tough time but if they don't exert even a small amount of influence, more refugees will come to South Africa and will cause tension between the native blacks and the Zimbabweans, as we have seen recently in Johannesburg when foreigners, mainly Zimbabweans were brutally killed. South Africa will be screwed if it continues with its 'quiet diplomacy'.

[Gunter45]

At 8/28/08 01:19 PM, ThePretenders wrote: I know South Africa is going through a tough time but if they don't exert even a small amount of influence, more refugees will come to South Africa and will cause tension between the native blacks and the Zimbabweans, as we have seen recently in Johannesburg when foreigners, mainly Zimbabweans were brutally killed. South Africa will be screwed if it continues with its 'quiet diplomacy'.

I'm failing to see how having an open-arms policy when it comes to aiding Zimbabwe will result in fewer refugees coming to South Africa. If anything, it seems like it would invite more. They're going to be inundated in any case. That's what I was referring to when I said they would, most likely, distance themselves in order to keep from collapse themselves.

The way I see it, their smartest option, and the option they're most likely to take, is to work on their own infrastructure in order to help the refugees as best they can without overextending themselves.

[Tony-DarkGrave]

zimbabwe is doomed its inflation and shitty leadership has took it to it's end

[Luxury-Yacht]

Zimbabwe is classically fucked. Mugabe has been out of control for ages, and refuses to reform. He's going to end up grinding the entire nation into dust.

Killing him would be the most convenient short term method, since he'll just rigany election like he's always done, but then an interim government would need to be arranged, and chances are one of Mugabe's strongmen will muscle their way to the top unless outside nations babysit the entire country for God knows how long.

[aranS]

At 8/27/08 12:06 PM, ThePretenders wrote: Lol, Zimbabwe is finished. Inflation is at 2,200,000%, people can't even spend their daily wages because their real wages are decreased by the end of the day. It used to be the bread basket of Africa, and now it's the basket case.

Lol, 2,200,000% is the official inflation rate, but zimbabwe stopped releasing the official number, now its been estimated to be close to about 10,000,000%

BUT

People have just stopped using the Z$, instead many people have been using the euro, and the south african currency (i think its called 'rand' but i may be wrong)

[ThePretenders]

At 8/28/08 02:41 PM, Gunter45 wrote: I'm failing to see how having an open-arms policy when it comes to aiding Zimbabwe will result in fewer refugees coming to South Africa. If anything, it seems like it would invite more. They're going to be inundated in any case. That's what I was referring to when I said they would, most likely, distance themselves in order to keep from collapse themselves.

I'm not saying that they should have a completely open-arms policy but they to promote stability in the region, otherwise if Zimbabwe implodes, then the instability arising from that would drive more people to leave Zimbabwe than usual. I see where you're getting, if they help Zimbabwe, more people will be South Africa as a 'protector state' (and South Africa has its own problems as well e.g. extreme poverty etc.) and will come in droves, but South Africa has to help the country achieve stability because once it becomes more stable (if they broke a power deal between Tsvangarai and Mugabe), then less people will flee from political persecution (even though most are economic refugees and that should be left to the West).

The way I see it, their smartest option, and the option they're most likely to take, is to work on their own infrastructure in order to help the refugees as best they can without overextending themselves.

They will obviously take their interests because they don't want to be too selfless and importing Zimbabwean problems but they're caught between a rock and hard place and too much inaction/action could make the problems worse.

At 8/29/08 04:15 AM, aranS wrote: Lol, 2,200,000% is the official inflation rate, but zimbabwe stopped releasing the official number, now its been estimated to be close to about 10,000,000%

It doesn't matter becuase the currency is virtually worthless.

BUT

People have just stopped using the Z$, instead many people have been using the euro, and the south african currency (i think its called 'rand' but i may be wrong)

I think they should peg the Zimbabwean dollar to the U.S. dollar at Z$1 = $1 and discontinue the current currency, or abolish the central bank and use the U.S. dollar as legal tender, like they do in Panama. They need to bring inflation down immediately to achieve macroeconomic stability.

[Battl3Mast3r]

Zimbabwe has entered economic failure. It happens, especially with a relatively new country. They will either re-distribute a new currency, or get annexed by another country.

The latter would be hilarious. "Mozambique annexes Zimbabwe".

[Luxury-Yacht]

At 8/29/08 07:05 AM, ThePretenders wrote: I think they should peg the Zimbabwean dollar to the U.S. dollar at Z$1 = $1 and discontinue the current currency, or abolish the central bank and use the U.S. dollar as legal tender, like they do in Panama. They need to bring inflation down immediately to achieve macroeconomic stability.

If they just suddenly replaced their currency with the U.S. dollar, that would probably be disastrous. The situation would go from having so much money that it's worthless to having so little money available, no one has much money at all, minus those who are already ridiculously wealthy- i.e., the higher members of the highly corrupt Zimbabwean government.

The U.S. dollar is unbelievably stronger than the Z$, making the conversion rates absurd. I wouldn't imagine that it would be easy for an average Zimbabwean to gather up their money, get to a bank, and convert their cash with all the shit going on down their. Hell, the government would probably horad all the U.S. dollars it can get its hands on, retaining their chokehold on the region, and further doing so by restricting conversion of Z$ to U.S. by strongarming people out of any banks with the connections to get U.S. dollars.

It may have worked in Panama, but Panama isn't on the verge of disintegration in both economic and political divisions, at least not in conditions so extreme.

[aranS]

Imagine if Zimbabwe had a nuke O.o

Joking aside,
Throughout history countries always go through a stage such as zimbwe is now. They have a tyrant dictator who is running the country into the ground. The best thing to do is to not get involved, and let nature take its course eventualy there will be revolution, mabye a few times, civil war, desease, and a good portion of the population will die. Then they will rebuild and know war is bad, and how to properly run the country. Yes people will die, but the realistic and correct way something happens doesnt always sound moral. You cant look at the world through rose colored glasses

[Der-Lowe]

At 8/29/08 07:05 AM, ThePretenders wrote: I think they should peg the Zimbabwean dollar to the U.S. dollar at Z$1 = $1 and discontinue the current currency, or abolish the central bank and use the U.S. dollar as legal tender, like they do in Panama. They need to bring inflation down immediately to achieve macroeconomic stability.

And let it float freely as soon as confidence is restored. I don't think they need a 2001.

[milktoast]

At 8/27/08 09:24 PM, MortifiedPenguins wrote:

At 8/27/08 05:13 PM, Jezuz wrote: Two words, and one acronym: C.I.A. assassination plot.

He shows his face in public far too frequently. He would be an easy target for a trained sniper.

CIA hasn't had a really succesfull track record of assassination attempts.

Simple answer: nothing.

Let the country run it's course, we all know there's going to be a uprising, cou, revolution whatever. Eventually, in a week, month, year or decade there's going to be a changing of government and that is when America goes in.

We go in an a humanitarian mission, with the international community, help establish a democratic country and leave.

And especcially let the people of Zimbabwe choice thier own futures.

Are you kidding? haha
It's past the point of a revolution, mate. The Zimbabwean (sp?) people are all moving to South Africa, and THAT in itself is creating international problems. It's been reported that the Zimbabwean people have started to take the South Africans jobs, as they are more qualified - and this has lead to mass murders of Zimbabwean people.
And you say that the US will go on a humanitarian mission?
You're fucking kidding, the only form of humanity that the US gets involved in are ones that are beneficial for them. The only thing that this will help the US in is to save their face (which Bush needs to do), but they don't even have enough troops left to send there.

Where is the humanity at all in this situation? How can letting nature take its course bring humanity? How will the US make this a more humane situation?

The UN needs to do something. Not the US.

And if nothing happens, the situation will decrease and get worse and worse. There might be a revolution, but HOW? People who speak out are murdered by Mugabi. The opposition leader is getting buttfucked by Mugabi.

All I can see in this situation for a while is death and unfortune.