Russia ups the Ante

[Ravariel]

So Russia has officially ended military cooperation with NATO.

Now this is, admittedly, more of a symbolic move than a substantive one, but it is still very troubling. Add it to the fun being had in Georgia and the "ceasefire" bullshit that's going on, as well as the threat to nuke Poland over our proposed missile defense system, (lol @ those who thought that nuclear issues had nothing to do with international politics) this is simply another in a long list of actions that Russia has taken in order to reassert it's influence on the international stage. But is that it's endgame goal? Singular actions have very real goals, but is the grander scheme simply the forcing of other countries to fear them the way they did when the USSR was still kicking? Or is it something more/less than that?

International countermeasures have included the (likely to happen) elimination of Russia from the G8 and the WTO, but is this at all a real deterrant to them? What actions can we take in order to halt their power-grab before another cold war erupts?

[Saruman200]

Russia was the completely justified in the Russia-Georgia conflict. This is pretty obvious to anyone who takes the time to read about the history of said conflict and the region and nation it occured in. Russia saying is will nuke Poland and end cooperation with NATO is stupid, but it's all bluster. Russia won't be kicked from the G8 or WTO. It has too much influence, and really most people on the world stage know the consquences of messing with Russia, and also realize the reality of the situation in Georgia. While Western leaders will always bluster, just like Russia, nothing will ever come of it. It's Real Politik, all this stuff about "moral highground" and what not is crap. Russia, NATO, Georgia, and all the other countries of the world are just acting in there best interest. I think is very hypocritical to talk about how "troubling" Russia is, when the US is doing the exact same thing in the Middle East: reassurting it's influence. Once, again, Real Politik. If you really think Russia is the bad guy and Georgia and the West are the good guys, your sourly mistaken.

[animehater]

I think that in order for this to not turn into another Cold War both Putin and Medvedev need to be taken out.

[Saruman200]

At 8/21/08 06:31 PM, animehater wrote: I think that in order for this to not turn into another Cold War both Putin and Medvedev need to be taken out.

Yep, let's get rid of two democratically elected leaders because we thing we're better than them. There is a good representation of how the West is no better morally than Russia.

[animehater]

At 8/21/08 06:46 PM, Saruman200 wrote: democratically elected

Sure.

[Saruman200]

At 8/21/08 06:51 PM, animehater wrote:

At 8/21/08 06:46 PM, Saruman200 wrote: democratically elected

Sure.

I know. Russia actually has higher voter turnout that the United States, so technically Russia is more democratic :) The only valid (as in verified by international correspondents) complaints about the Russian elections was media bias. However, the majority of these correspondents agreed that even if the media coverage had been fair, United Russia still would have won.

[Gunter45]

At 8/21/08 06:31 PM, animehater wrote: I think that in order for this to not turn into another Cold War both Putin and Medvedev need to be taken out.

You wouldn't need to take out Medvedev. He just does as he's told.

As far as Russian's latest developments, it's not surprising. They're talking a big game for their citizen's benefit. They love what's going on.

Culturally speaking, the Russians have always held a lot of national pride and, ever since the fall of Communism, they feel like they're not taken seriously. With Putin at the reins, they're finally getting some perceived respect out of the world, through the might of a strong leader, no less. Putin can do no wrong in their eyes as long as he keeps up the bluster.

As for Georgia, the cease fire and moving the armor column back and all that bullshit? It's a really smart move. Nobody's buying it, but that's not the point. He's able to say that they're cooperating to some degree and, obviously, it's been enough to placate the rest of the world enough to where no real military action is being taken. If Russia just went in and steamrolled Georgia, UN or NATO peacekeepers would be deployed in no time. Americans would actually be in favor of us getting involved. As it stands, Russia's winning the political war and it's making their lives a lot easier.

Now, I had said a while back that Georgia was targeted because of their tentative position regarding NATO. They were in talks about joining and, while the jury's out on whether or not they would have been admitted, Russia's sending a message: the Warsaw Pact is back in business.

The next target's most likely one of three neighboring countries: the Ukraine, Poland, or Chechnya. The Ukraine is also in talks with NATO and, for my money, that makes them a pretty blatant next move and Russia's been keeping their cards face up, so I don't think they're going to be throwing in any surprises.

However, this missile shield deal affords Russia a chance to send another message: don't have military dealings with the US. Of course, I'm a little skeptical. The way Russia's been playing this, they've been careful not to push the international community's leniency too far. The US just signed a military agreement with Poland and putting troops down is going to give the US full justification to send troops to hound Russia and the Russian army is barely even a shadow of the Red Army. It's a fight they know they would lose, politically and militarily. They're not stupid enough to throw the dice on whether or not we'd get involved, it's too much risk for a meager gain.

Now, Chechnya. Chechnya is the fattened cow waiting to be slaughtered. Russia could completely dominate them without hardly even putting up a pretext. Chechnya's on bad terms with the US, they've had civil war (in which Russia's been involved already), the country is fractured to the point that the citizens would welcome anyone who could give them stability and, let's face it, nobody gives a shit about them.

It's an easy target, but there's really no message being sent. It's just expansionism for its own sake, which Russia's interested in, but they can take Chechnya any time they want. Georgia and the Ukraine are on a timetable because Russia's not going to wait and find out whether or not they're admitted to NATO. That would make things rough. So they're going to annex them before they have the opportunity and then set their eyes on all the surrounding Bumfuckistans and Azbhekiwhatevers and nobody's going to do shit.

My thoughts on all of this? While it's going to make the world a much more tense place, I welcome it. Being American, I know that Americans are at their best when they have competition. If there's nothing to push us, we get soft and apathetic. It's been happening for decades. We don't have any motivation to dominate because there's no other superpowers to dominate. I think adding some tension and competitiveness to the international stage is going to break this bullshit apathetic attitude towards everything that's been taking root in the US and I am totally welcoming that.

[Saruman200]

At 8/21/08 07:10 PM, Gunter45 wrote:
You wouldn't need to take out Medvedev. He just does as he's told.

Actually Medvedev as different positions than Putin on many domestic issues, but he follows Putin when it comes to foreign policy.

As far as Russian's latest developments, it's not surprising. They're talking a big game for their citizen's benefit. They love what's going on.

True.

Culturally speaking, the Russians have always held a lot of national pride and, ever since the fall of Communism, they feel like they're not taken seriously. With Putin at the reins, they're finally getting some perceived respect out of the world, through the might of a strong leader, no less. Putin can do no wrong in their eyes as long as he keeps up the bluster.

Again, True.

As for Georgia, the cease fire and moving the armor column back and all that bullshit? It's a really smart move. Nobody's buying it, but that's not the point. He's able to say that they're cooperating to some degree and, obviously, it's been enough to placate the rest of the world enough to where no real military action is being taken. If Russia just went in and steamrolled Georgia, UN or NATO peacekeepers would be deployed in no time. Americans would actually be in favor of us getting involved. As it stands, Russia's winning the political war and it's making their lives a lot easier.

As I've said a million times before, Georgia is the one starting all this, Russia is completely justfied.

Now, I had said a while back that Georgia was targeted because of their tentative position regarding NATO. They were in talks about joining and, while the jury's out on whether or not they would have been admitted, Russia's sending a message: the Warsaw Pact is back in business.

How?

The next target's most likely one of three neighboring countries: the Ukraine, Poland, or Chechnya. The Ukraine is also in talks with NATO and, for my money, that makes them a pretty blatant next move and Russia's been keeping their cards face up, so I don't think they're going to be throwing in any surprises.

Chechnya isn't a rival country, it's part of Russia. I seriously doubt Russia will attack Ukraine or Poland, that's just bluster designed at resecuring influence.

However, this missile shield deal affords Russia a chance to send another message: don't have military dealings with the US. Of course, I'm a little skeptical. The way Russia's been playing this, they've been careful not to push the international community's leniency too far. The US just signed a military agreement with Poland and putting troops down is going to give the US full justification to send troops to hound Russia and the Russian army is barely even a shadow of the Red Army. It's a fight they know they would lose, politically and militarily. They're not stupid enough to throw the dice on whether or not we'd get involved, it's too much risk for a meager gain.

The Russian Army is actually going through a modernization plan, and it's already though as the second most powerful military after that of the US. I agree Russia won't attack Poland though.

Now, Chechnya. Chechnya is the fattened cow waiting to be slaughtered. Russia could completely dominate them without hardly even putting up a pretext. Chechnya's on bad terms with the US, they've had civil war (in which Russia's been involved already), the country is fractured to the point that the citizens would welcome anyone who could give them stability and, let's face it, nobody gives a shit about them.

Russia has been fighting Chechnya for along time. Chechnya is a breakaway provence of Russia, like South Ossetia is to Georgia (I agree with people on how hypocritical Russia is being).

It's an easy target, but there's really no message being sent. It's just expansionism for its own sake, which Russia's interested in, but they can take Chechnya any time they want. Georgia and the Ukraine are on a timetable because Russia's not going to wait and find out whether or not they're admitted to NATO. That would make things rough. So they're going to annex them before they have the opportunity and then set their eyes on all the surrounding Bumfuckistans and Azbhekiwhatevers and nobody's going to do shit.

Russia isn't "annexing" anything. The Pro-West Georgian president is still in power, and this has actually increased it's chances of joining NATO.

My thoughts on all of this? While it's going to make the world a much more tense place, I welcome it. Being American, I know that Americans are at their best when they have competition. If there's nothing to push us, we get soft and apathetic. It's been happening for decades. We don't have any motivation to dominate because there's no other superpowers to dominate. I think adding some tension and competitiveness to the international stage is going to break this bullshit apathetic attitude towards everything that's been taking root in the US and I am totally welcoming that.

I agree for the opposite reasons. With competetion, the US won't go around messing in other countries business and do stupid crap like attack Iraq for fear of pissing off Russia.

[Gunter45]

At 8/21/08 07:23 PM, Saruman200 wrote:

At 8/21/08 07:10 PM, Gunter45 wrote: Now, I had said a while back that Georgia was targeted because of their tentative position regarding NATO. They were in talks about joining and, while the jury's out on whether or not they would have been admitted, Russia's sending a message: the Warsaw Pact is back in business.

How?

Russia is absolutely using the Georgian internal conflict to annex it. They really fanned the flames in South Ossetia especially.

I'm not saying it's a bad thing, it's just what's happening, they're taking shit over. The neighboring countries are in need of stability anyway, so it's basically just a little unpleasantness and then things'll be much smoother over there than they have been since the late 80s.

Chechnya isn't a rival country, it's part of Russia. I seriously doubt Russia will attack Ukraine or Poland, that's just bluster designed at resecuring influence.

Meh, it's tentative. I see Russia totally dominating Chechnya, establish a much more obvious control. I mean, Chechnya has been pretty autonomous for a while, even with Russia at the de facto helm.

The Russian Army is actually going through a modernization plan, and it's already though as the second most powerful military after that of the US. I agree Russia won't attack Poland though.

They can muscle around their neighbors, sure, but their military isn't anywhere near as tough as it used to be. Not even close. I know they're bringing it back up to speed, but that's kind of my point. They're not going to be taking the bull by the horns before hitting the gym a little.

Russia has been fighting Chechnya for along time. Chechnya is a breakaway provence of Russia, like South Ossetia is to Georgia (I agree with people on how hypocritical Russia is being).

Hypocritical? They don't give a shit about the rights of the South Ossetians or the Abkhazians. They've been using the situation to expand. It would only be hypocritical if they gave half a shit about the situation any further than the fact that it provides them with the perfect pretext.

Russia isn't "annexing" anything. The Pro-West Georgian president is still in power, and this has actually increased it's chances of joining NATO.

Then why are they strengthening their position in Georgia? They're not withdrawing from any positions of strength and the places they are giving up aren't of any strategic value. It's a political move. They've been moving fucking ballistic launchers up closer to the front. You don't do that unless you're digging in.

Russia's not done with Georgia, I can't understand why you would think so. NOBODY is buying the cease fire, that's far from the point. Putin doesn't expect anyone to buy it and, yet, you seem to be. That says something.

I agree for the opposite reasons. With competetion, the US won't go around messing in other countries business and do stupid crap like attack Iraq for fear of pissing off Russia.

Oh yeah, because the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the Cuban Missile Crisis are any indication of that. The whole Cold War was entirely fought by messing with other countries business.

[Saruman200]

At 8/21/08 07:42 PM, Gunter45 wrote:

At 8/21/08 07:23 PM, Saruman200 wrote:

At 8/21/08 07:10 PM, Gunter45 wrote: Now, I had said a while back that Georgia was targeted because of their tentative position regarding NATO. They were in talks about joining and, while the jury's out on whether or not they would have been admitted, Russia's sending a message: the Warsaw Pact is back in business.

How?

Russia is absolutely using the Georgian internal conflict to annex it. They really fanned the flames in South Ossetia especially.

I'm not saying it's a bad thing, it's just what's happening, they're taking shit over. The neighboring countries are in need of stability anyway, so it's basically just a little unpleasantness and then things'll be much smoother over there than they have been since the late 80s.

I seriously doubt it.

Chechnya isn't a rival country, it's part of Russia. I seriously doubt Russia will attack Ukraine or Poland, that's just bluster designed at resecuring influence.

Meh, it's tentative. I see Russia totally dominating Chechnya, establish a much more obvious control. I mean, Chechnya has been pretty autonomous for a while, even with Russia at the de facto helm.

Not really. Russia has a good hand on Chechnya, the problem is terrorist attacks there.

The Russian Army is actually going through a modernization plan, and it's already though as the second most powerful military after that of the US. I agree Russia won't attack Poland though.

They can muscle around their neighbors, sure, but their military isn't anywhere near as tough as it used to be. Not even close. I know they're bringing it back up to speed, but that's kind of my point. They're not going to be taking the bull by the horns before hitting the gym a little.

I assumed we were talking in the future, not right now, since I find it highly unlikely Russia would just go ahead and attack now instead of waiting.

Russia has been fighting Chechnya for along time. Chechnya is a breakaway provence of Russia, like South Ossetia is to Georgia (I agree with people on how hypocritical Russia is being).

Hypocritical? They don't give a shit about the rights of the South Ossetians or the Abkhazians. They've been using the situation to expand. It would only be hypocritical if they gave half a shit about the situation any further than the fact that it provides them with the perfect pretext.

They do. They gave South Ossetians and the Abkhazians Russian passports.

Russia isn't "annexing" anything. The Pro-West Georgian president is still in power, and this has actually increased it's chances of joining NATO.

Then why are they strengthening their position in Georgia? They're not withdrawing from any positions of strength and the places they are giving up aren't of any strategic value. It's a political move. They've been moving fucking ballistic launchers up closer to the front. You don't do that unless you're digging in.

Russia's not done with Georgia, I can't understand why you would think so. NOBODY is buying the cease fire, that's far from the point. Putin doesn't expect anyone to buy it and, yet, you seem to be. That says something.

Oh, how kind. We were having a debate and you decide to come out and insult me (or at least it implies an insult) for no reason. I've never insulted you, yet you do it to me. Do you do that to everyone who has a different view on something than you? "That says something."

I agree for the opposite reasons. With competetion, the US won't go around messing in other countries business and do stupid crap like attack Iraq for fear of pissing off Russia.

Oh yeah, because the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the Cuban Missile Crisis are any indication of that. The whole Cold War was entirely fought by messing with other countries business.

All those had reasons. The War in Iraq had not reason.

[Gunter45]

At 8/21/08 08:19 PM, Saruman200 wrote: They do. They gave South Ossetians and the Abkhazians Russian passports.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! OH MY GOD!

Dude, you really are that ignorant. Good fucking God.

No, no, seriously. You don't get why they did that? I swear to God, I mean, believing that they're being honest about the cease-fire is one thing. I mean, you're a gullible dumbass for that, no problem, but seriously. The passport thing went over your head? You thought they did that to be neighborly?

I swear, I'm done with you on this. If it's not blatantly obvious why they did that, then you're completely lost, I'm not going to spend any time on someone who can't even grasp BLATANT provocateurism.

[Saruman200]

At 8/21/08 08:29 PM, Gunter45 wrote:

At 8/21/08 08:19 PM, Saruman200 wrote: They do. They gave South Ossetians and the Abkhazians Russian passports.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! OH MY GOD!

Dude, you really are that ignorant. Good fucking God.

No, no, seriously. You don't get why they did that? I swear to God, I mean, believing that they're being honest about the cease-fire is one thing. I mean, you're a gullible dumbass for that, no problem, but seriously. The passport thing went over your head? You thought they did that to be neighborly?

I swear, I'm done with you on this. If it's not blatantly obvious why they did that, then you're completely lost, I'm not going to spend any time on someone who can't even grasp BLATANT provocateurism.

Your ignorance amazes me. They have had those passports for years. What an idiot. You believe all the Western propaganda so easily. Then when someone (gasp!) disagrees with you can even be civilized. I love the irony and hypocracy of your statements. They make me laugh. I can't believe you don't even look at the evidence when it stares you in the face. Then you accuse me of ignorance. This is one of the funniest things I've seen! You obviously know nothing about the region. Instead you just blindly follow everything you see on the news. How ironic.

[Gunter45]

At 8/21/08 08:39 PM, Saruman200 wrote: Your ignorance amazes me. They have had those passports for years.

:o

Noooooooo. It happened YEARS ago, it couldn't have been planned to create a pretext, that's far too long ago for a brilliant strategist like Putin to have planned.

What an idiot. You believe all the Western propaganda so easily.

Propaganda? I didn't read that the passport thing was provocateuring in the news. It's common sense. Besides, that's a bold statement coming from someone who actually believes that Russia's in this to help the little guy out when you YOURSELF, know exactly their stance on Chechnya.

Not only that, but I KNOW you have this mentality that I'm somehow defacing Russia by saying they're being expansionist. Can I be any clearer that I respect Russia's and Putin's actions? No, no I can't. Because I came out and said it, you stupid douche.

And FURTHER, you're the one who feels like Russia is completely innocent in all of this. There's nothing, NOTHING to suggest that.

All the evidence points to Russia brilliantly setting up a situation which they then capitalize on in order to reassert their dominance in the region. All of it.

Then when someone (gasp!) disagrees with you can even be civilized. I love the irony and hypocracy of your statements. They make me laugh. I can't believe you don't even look at the evidence when it stares you in the face. Then you accuse me of ignorance. This is one of the funniest things I've seen! You obviously know nothing about the region. Instead you just blindly follow everything you see on the news. How ironic.

Again, I've been saying this before the news said it. I have a thread where I've predicted Russia's actions before they even started threatening countries with nukes. You can't make me out to be a sheep when I'm ahead of the game.

Not only that, but if you disagreed on something other than the basis of "Russia's doing this out of the goodness of their hearts" then I'd not only be civil, but I'd respect you for not being a stupid cunt that pretends to know more than they do.

[DrAfrothunder]

Noooooooo. It happened YEARS ago, it couldn't have been planned to create a pretext, that's far too long ago for a brilliant strategist like Putin to have planned.

Lets be realistic. A lot of those people got those passports almost 20 years ago after the break up of the Soviet Union. Sure, Russia is certainly taking advantage of that citizenship, but I highly doubt that the Russian goverment of the early nineties systematically handed out passports to citizens of a tiny province in tiny georgia to provoke NATO & the West 15-odd years down the road.

[Gunter45]

At 8/21/08 09:08 PM, DrAfrothunder wrote: Lets be realistic. A lot of those people got those passports almost 20 years ago after the break up of the Soviet Union. Sure, Russia is certainly taking advantage of that citizenship, but I highly doubt that the Russian goverment of the early nineties systematically handed out passports to citizens of a tiny province in tiny georgia to provoke NATO & the West 15-odd years down the road.

Now, that's a good point and it would detract from my argument if it also hadn't happened recently.

[ForkRobotik]

At 8/21/08 08:55 PM, Gunter45 wrote:

Noooooooo. It happened YEARS ago, it couldn't have been planned to create a pretext, that's far too long ago for a brilliant strategist like Putin to have planned.

It happened before Putin was in power. Also, it's in the Russian constitution that Russia is obliged to protect all russian passport holders, as millions of russians are in countries that were formerly part of the USSR.

Propaganda? I didn't read that the passport thing was provocateuring in the news. It's common sense. Besides, that's a bold statement coming from someone who actually believes that Russia's in this to help the little guy out when you YOURSELF, know exactly their stance on Chechnya.

Georgia is nothing like Chechnya. If it was, Russia would not have granted it independence.

And FURTHER, you're the one who feels like Russia is completely innocent in all of this. There's nothing, NOTHING to suggest that.

No one is innocent when it comes to politics. IMHO, Russia is acting to ensure that Georgia cannot reclaim the lost provinces, so as to ensure they cannot join NATO.

All the evidence points to Russia brilliantly setting up a situation which they then capitalize on in order to reassert their dominance in the region. All of it.

So, georgia attacking South Ossetia was part of Russia's evil plan?

Not only that, but if you disagreed on something other than the basis of "Russia's doing this out of the goodness of their hearts" then I'd not only be civil, but I'd respect you for not being a stupid cunt that pretends to know more than they do.

While russia is obliged to act or face humiliation, ofcourse they're going to do something to gain from the conflict. This is why they're collecting all the US arms in the country, and enforcing the original ceasefire which gives them the right to patrol up to 14kms inside georgian territory. Russia has stated that georgia will never again be able to act aggressively, and this ensures that both Abkhazia and South Ossetia will retain defacto independence, regardless of the world community.

The reality here is that Russia benefits the most with south ossetia and akhazia being in limbo, because if the situation is resolved either way, Georgia will be able to join Nato, which is what russia has a problem with. Georgia was foolish to attack these regions, and would have been better off negotiating a lasting peace with people that don't want to be part of their country. If i'm not mistaken, the UN charter gives people the right to self determination, so what is your view on whether or not they should be forced into a country they were never part of historically?

[zase8]

At 8/21/08 06:51 PM, animehater wrote:

At 8/21/08 06:46 PM, Saruman200 wrote: democratically elected

Sure.

People in Russia love Putin. There's no point in rigging the election when the majority of the population will vote for him anyway. Think about it for a second, why would Russians not vote for Putin? Yeah, sure, He constantly threatens European nations by cutting off the gas supply in the winter, and he also threatens them with nukes, blah, blah blah. But guess what? This has nothing to do with Russians. Do you really think the average Ivan in Russia gives a crap about Poland being under threat? He can't afford to feed his family but when he's voting, he will think, "Hmm, how will the world benefit from Putin?"

In 1990's Russia was a complete shithole, the country was in crisis, the economy was shit, people were piss poor. Many didn't even have telephone lines. Then Putin came to power, and in less then 10 years he turned it into a country that's well on it's way to reaching superpower status once again. Russia is becoming an economic superpower, it's becoming the energy supplier of the world. Russia already supplies most of Central Europe with Oil and Gas, and it's expanding the network to cover ALL of Europe, Asia, and even South America. It also has plans to build nuclear power plants to supply the neighbouring countries with electricity.

Russia's GDP has almost doubled in the last 2 years. Sure Russia is no America yet, and the standard of living there is much lower, but compared to what it was in the 1990's, it's very different. Moscow now has the largest number of billionares in the wolrd. Crime rates fell dramatically, hell even the Russian soccer team is starting to do better.

No matter how you look at it, Putin coming to power was the best thing to happen to the Russian people in the last 20 years. It might not be good for the rest of the world, but the rest of the world doesn't live in Russia.

[Gunter45]

At 8/21/08 09:21 PM, ForkRobotik wrote: It happened before Putin was in power. Also, it's in the Russian constitution that Russia is obliged to protect all russian passport holders, as millions of russians are in countries that were formerly part of the USSR.

Right, and it also happened recently, while Putin was in power.

Georgia is nothing like Chechnya. If it was, Russia would not have granted it independence.

Chechnya? They're not independent. They're less independent than Puerto Rico.

No one is innocent when it comes to politics. IMHO, Russia is acting to ensure that Georgia cannot reclaim the lost provinces, so as to ensure they cannot join NATO.

The only thing ensuring them from joining NATO is

So, georgia attacking South Ossetia was part of Russia's evil plan?

Evil plan? Good Lord, does nobody read? Besides, fanning the separatist flames in South Ossetia and Abkhazia is a pretty good way to get Georgia to attack. It's not like Russia hasn't done something similar.

While russia is obliged to act or face humiliation, ofcourse they're going to do something to gain from the conflict. This is why they're collecting all the US arms in the country, and enforcing the original ceasefire which gives them the right to patrol up to 14kms inside georgian territory. Russia has stated that georgia will never again be able to act aggressively, and this ensures that both Abkhazia and South Ossetia will retain defacto independence, regardless of the world community.

The cease fire is a joke. Russia's not pulling out any time soon, they're just buying time that the rest of the world is happy to sell them.

The reality here is that Russia benefits the most with south ossetia and akhazia being in limbo, because if the situation is resolved either way, Georgia will be able to join Nato, which is what russia has a problem with. Georgia was foolish to attack these regions, and would have been better off negotiating a lasting peace with people that don't want to be part of their country. If i'm not mistaken, the UN charter gives people the right to self determination, so what is your view on whether or not they should be forced into a country they were never part of historically?

Honestly? It's better for them in the long run anyway. I object to the principle, in general, but when you get right down to it, that's just the way shit works. Russia has been playing this brilliantly and I can't help but respect the way they're handling things.

And besides, it's kind of silly to argue about something that's playing out right now anyway. Russia's acting very typically Russian, they have all their cards in the open and I'm calling it like they're going to handle this in a very Russian manner. If I'm wrong, whatever, but I have a pretty good gut feeling that seems to have been dead on so far.

[Gunter45]

At 8/21/08 09:49 PM, Gunter45 wrote: The only thing ensuring them from joining NATO is

Fuck, second time something's cut out of the middle of my post. :/

At any rate, it's not like Georgia's not going to be able to join NATO after this. Hell, the way Russia's been intimidating Poland and the Ukraine, it would behoove NATO to have member nations close by just in case anyway.

Therefore, the only thing that'd keep Georgia from joining is not giving them the option to.

[Saruman200]

Your posts contradict. First you say Russia is out to annex new territory, then you assert they don't care about the people of South Ossetia. That doesn't make sense. If Russia wants new terrority so bad, wouldn't it be in their best interests to aid the people of Georgian breakaway provinces? Not to mention the historical clause. Ossetia has been it's own nation for most of history, but Stalin decided to divide it up between the Georgian SSR and the Russian SSR during his reorganization of Soviet territories. This problem goes back a lot farther than the last 15-20 years. This war was not masterminded by Vladmir Putin. Mikheil Saakashvili did. He has long promised to retake the breakaway provinces, and when better a time to do so than while Putin and other world leaders were at the Olympics. He underestimated the fact that Medvedev, while still Putin de facto henchmen, would act on his own, which he did.

The Constitution of the Russian Federation says the president has the duty to defend Russian citizens around the world. Since many of those South Ossetians who were murdered by Georgian artillery barrage were Russian citizens, and additionally ten Russian peacekeepers were killed, it made complete sense for him to invade. So, when you say Russia engineered this whole thing, you imply that the Constitution of the Russian Federation is part of this conspiracy, and that Stalin was in on the whole thing too. Your trying to oversimplify a complex issue spanning almost a hundred years of history by reverted to the old Cold War-esque "Russians are coming!" attitude.

By saying the ceasefire is insencere you ignore the fact that it was Russia who took this ceasefire to the UN. The ceasefire is currently being discussed in the UN security council and being made so it is acceptable to all parties. Do you honestly believe that Russia would first bring the issue to the UN, then, should the ceasefire be passed (which it likely will) ignore it?

This is the ignorance that comes of trying to oversimplify an issue. Instead of being open to new opinions, the minute I began to critize any part of your idea you insult me my intelligence. Then, you say that you have left the topic, only to come back to continue the insults. While I can admit I was wrong about the Cold War. There. I admitted I was wrong about something. Now, do you still find it nessicary to insult my intelligence simply because I take the opposite. Unfortunatly, in life you will meet people who disagree with you. But implying they are stupid or ignorant is not the way to get around this. Why can't we have a civil debate about the issue at hand instead of resorting to personal attacks? While I can admit I indulged in this aswell, I was simply defending myself against an unwarrented attack. If you can't be civil, then you shouldn't bother discussing controversial topics. I think I would listen to your views and respect you a lot more if you didn't insult me. All that does is hurt your overall argument. People are much more likely to listen to someone when there civil then when they're insulting people for seemingly no reason besides having a different view. Okay, my rant is done.

[LordJaric]

Out of curiosity Gunter45, what are you predicting Russia will do next.

[Saruman200]

At 8/21/08 08:55 PM, Gunter45 wrote:

At 8/21/08 08:39 PM, Saruman200 wrote: Your ignorance amazes me. They have had those passports for years.

o

Noooooooo. It happened YEARS ago, it couldn't have been planned to create a pretext, that's far too long ago for a brilliant strategist like Putin to have planned.

What an idiot. You believe all the Western propaganda so easily.

Propaganda? I didn't read that the passport thing was provocateuring in the news. It's common sense. Besides, that's a bold statement coming from someone who actually believes that Russia's in this to help the little guy out when you YOURSELF, know exactly their stance on Chechnya.

I clearly stated Russia was being hypocritical in this when considering their stance on Chechnya. Their stance of supporting South Ossetia is right, but their stance of not supporting Chechnya is wrong. It is possible from a country to do things that are both bad and good. Nothing is just black and white or good and evil, we're all shades of gray.

Not only that, but I KNOW you have this mentality that I'm somehow defacing Russia by saying they're being expansionist. Can I be any clearer that I respect Russia's and Putin's actions? No, no I can't. Because I came out and said it, you stupid douche.

And FURTHER, you're the one who feels like Russia is completely innocent in all of this. There's nothing, NOTHING to suggest that.

All the evidence points to Russia brilliantly setting up a situation which they then capitalize on in order to reassert their dominance in the region. All of it.

I have never said they were completely innocent. Being justified and being innocent are different things. I can murder a ruthless child rapist who molested my younger brother. I would be justified, but I would still be guilty of murder. Your idea that Russia masterminded the whole thing is like saying the US government masterminded 9/11: both are conspiracy theories with little factual base.

Then when someone (gasp!) disagrees with you can even be civilized. I love the irony and hypocracy of your statements. They make me laugh. I can't believe you don't even look at the evidence when it stares you in the face. Then you accuse me of ignorance. This is one of the funniest things I've seen! You obviously know nothing about the region. Instead you just blindly follow everything you see on the news. How ironic.

Again, I've been saying this before the news said it. I have a thread where I've predicted Russia's actions before they even started threatening countries with nukes. You can't make me out to be a sheep when I'm ahead of the game.

Well, arn't you just a regular Nostradomos.

Not only that, but if you disagreed on something other than the basis of "Russia's doing this out of the goodness of their hearts" then I'd not only be civil, but I'd respect you for not being a stupid cunt that pretends to know more than they do.

I never said Russia was doing this out of the goodness of their hearts.I've clearly stated how hypocrtical Russia is being when they support Georgia's breakaway provinces but not their own. It never occurs to you that maybe, just maybe, Russia can be wrong sometimes and right othertimes. The world doesn't always fit into the categories of "good" and "evil", countries can be both at the same time, or neither.

[ForkRobotik]

At 8/21/08 09:49 PM, Gunter45 wrote:

( Georgia is nothing like Chechnya. If it was, Russia would not have granted it independence.)

Chechnya? They're not independent. They're less independent than Puerto Rico.

Sorry, i meant they would not have granted georgia independence, when the USSR broke apart. Then again, chechnya is much more strategically important for russia than georgia is.

So, georgia attacking South Ossetia was part of Russia's evil plan?

Evil plan? Good Lord, does nobody read? Besides, fanning the separatist flames in South Ossetia and Abkhazia is a pretty good way to get Georgia to attack. It's not like Russia hasn't done something similar.

I don't see how you think they are fanning separatist flames. Abkhazia and South Ossetia fought a war for their independence in the early 90's, and have always stated they want nothing to do with georgia.

The cease fire is a joke. Russia's not pulling out any time soon, they're just buying time that the rest of the world is happy to sell them.

Are you predicting this? Russia has said their main forces will be out by the end of today. What will be left is a smaller force enforcing the ceasefire agreed to by russia and georgia last week, which is their right under the terms of the ceasefire.

Honestly? It's better for them in the long run anyway. I object to the principle, in general, but when you get right down to it, that's just the way shit works. Russia has been playing this brilliantly and I can't help but respect the way they're handling things.

And besides, it's kind of silly to argue about something that's playing out right now anyway. Russia's acting very typically Russian, they have all their cards in the open and I'm calling it like they're going to handle this in a very Russian manner. If I'm wrong, whatever, but I have a pretty good gut feeling that seems to have been dead on so far.

I agree with your statements, the only thing i disagree with is that i do believe russia is justified in their actions, and i seriously don't blame them for doing whatever they can to keep georgia out of NATO, as the USA seems intent on surrounding Russia with hostile regimes.

[rick8176]

I'm not worried about Russia's threat to launch nukes. They are completely aware of what the backlash would be like. They would probably be expelled from the G8, and could possibly lose their UN seat, although that's very unlikely.
An extremist fundamentalist country making these threats would begin to concern me, because they would be crazy enough to do it. Russia, however, is probably bluffing.

[animehater]

At 8/22/08 12:26 PM, rick8176 wrote: and could possibly lose their UN seat

Yeah they're sort of a permanent member of the U.N security council with veto powers. I don't see how that's possible.

[ForkRobotik]

At 8/22/08 01:31 PM, animehater wrote:

At 8/22/08 12:26 PM, rick8176 wrote: and could possibly lose their UN seat

Yeah they're sort of a permanent member of the U.N security council with veto powers. I don't see how that's possible.

It's not possible. Russia learned their lesson when they boycotted the UN during the korean civil war, and the USA pushed a resolution through giving the West the right to intervene in that war.

[Ravariel]

Obviously there's not much we can do about them in the UN except somehow get every other country to cock-block everything the Russians want to do... which would be bad, because the Russians would in turn cock-block everything that they could which would neuter the UN more than it already is. Bad for Russia, worse for the rest of the world.

Our attempts to turn every former Soviet country into a NATO country is abviously antagonizing them, so pushing harder for Georgia's (and others') admittance is also obviously not the way to go. I'm not saying we should completely abandon the thought of getting them into NATO, but pushing as hard as we are isn't the way to go about it.

Is blocking the Russians from the WTO and/or booting them from the G8 going to do anything at all? It would seem not, becuase they've been doing great without those things already, and I don't forsee their removal slowing their growth at all. What, besides military action, would halt their power-grab? Do we even want to do that?

Aside from invasion of soverign nations, and threats of violence against them, is anything about what they're trying to do (re-establish themselves as a world power) really that bad?

[ForkRobotik]

At 8/22/08 07:08 PM, Ravariel wrote: Aside from invasion of soverign nations, and threats of violence against them, is anything about what they're trying to do (re-establish themselves as a world power) really that bad?

So georgia attacking them was okay in your eyes? Was it okay for america to invade afghanistan when al quaeda bombed the twin towers? Don't be a hypocrate.

[Ravariel]

At 8/22/08 09:25 PM, ForkRobotik wrote: So georgia attacking them was okay in your eyes? Was it okay for america to invade afghanistan when al quaeda bombed the twin towers? Don't be a hypocrate.

Georgia didn't attack Russia.

[ForkRobotik]

At 8/22/08 10:50 PM, Ravariel wrote:

At 8/22/08 09:25 PM, ForkRobotik wrote: So georgia attacking them was okay in your eyes? Was it okay for america to invade afghanistan when al quaeda bombed the twin towers? Don't be a hypocrate.

Georgia didn't attack Russia.

Read the article. Georgia's attack on south ossetia killed russian peacekeepers. They foolishly attacked a russian barracks. Are you suggesting that north korea killing american soldiers in south korea wouldn't be considered an attack on the USA? Yes or no, please.

Also, Afghanistan didn't attack the USA, so your argument makes no sense.