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Just of the countries I listed, there are about 3200 athletes compared to about 600 for the US.

Make that about 3500.

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At 8/10/08 08:55 PM, cellardoor6 wrote:

If the guy was really just looking to kill a white person, the chances of killing someone who is related to the coach of the US Men's Volleyball team is incredibly remote.

Maybe he was just trying to kill any american?
It had to be SOMEONE.

Why not kill an athlete? Or the coach? Or go for a sport where americans would actually get crippled?
Targetting a relative of a coach of a team sport you have no chance of winning at sounds completely retarded ( like, say, jumping to your death after you commit your murder ).

Like, it's not even conspiracy worthy. Even the government wouldn't waste their time doing something like that.
And they think they have weather control machines!

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At 8/10/08 08:55 PM, cellardoor6 wrote:

At 8/9/08 09:17 PM, Elfer wrote:

At 8/9/08 08:16 PM, cellardoor6 wrote: Problems with your hypothesis: Beijing is being FLOODED with western tourists. The chances of the person stabbing the family member of a US coach are very, very small.

How small?

Small.

When we get into it, there's a very large set of people who could be considered performance risks.

There's a very large amount of people who are in Beijing right now who are white, who are also family members of coaches and athletes. You also have to consider western press, just plain tourists etc..

The fact that an American who is related to a US Olympic coach died in a "random act", even though Americans only make up a minority of the showing of white people at the Olympics, is quite a freaking coincidence. Especially when you consider who is hosting the Olympics, and who they are competing against to get the most medals/gold medals.

This includes every single person who is a coach, athlete, or a close friend or family member of an athlete (who are much more likely to attend than the average enthusiast). It also includes all workers and support crew for the US olympic team.

If the guy was really just looking to kill a white person, the chances of killing someone who is related to the coach of the US Men's Volleyball team is incredibly remote.

Yeah, if we single out the coach of the US volleyball team as the target. If we extend it to ANY athlete or coach, it becomes far more likely.

Consider the showing of:
France (323)
Australia (433)
Germany (463)
Canada (332)
Italy (344)
UK (313)
Russia (467) etc...
New Zealand (182)
Belgium (96)
Netherlands (245)
Switzerland (84)
Ukraine (254)

Let's say the killer was targeting someone from the US. They'd probably be looking for an English speaker, which rules out most of the people from France, Germany, Italy, Russia, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the Ukraine.

If the killer could differentiate between accents, that leaves US and Canadian citizens as potential targets.

It's quite apparent that if it was just a coincidence that the family member of an American coach got killed, it was a large coincidence. The fact that he was killed, and then the killer just committed suicide shows that there was some principle, and some motivation behind it.

People who commit non-specific murders in public have a pretty good track record of killing themselves. His motivation could have been to avoid capture.

Considering there are thousands of athletes from other western and predominantly white countries, that negates your claim that it was just a statistical probability. Especially when you factor in all the other white people that are there that aren't involved directly with Olympians, let alone related to them or their coaches. You're going to have a hard time getting around this fact unless you can prove that the US has a significantly larger showing of family members of athletes and coaches.

If we were going to try to run numbers on this, we'd need to know a LOT more specifics, and we'd just end up squabbling over the motivations of the killer anyway.

Whoa whoa whoa, so now you say it's a Chinese person looking for an American to kill specifically?

Originally you said:

At 8/9/08 06:15 PM, Elfer wrote: Alternate hypothesis: Lone wack-job decides to stab white people in Beijing.

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You changed your tune.

Yes, I did. Considering it was a foreigner stabbed during a large influx of foreigners, it's not unthinkable that there was a mentally disturbed nationalist who decided to kill someone that he perceived as an affront to his country.

Considering the China-US rivalry, it could easily have been a deliberate attempt to kill a US citizen.

When you get right down to it, even if the person's motive and plan was to kill the relative of a US olympic athlete or coach, it still doesn't indicate that the Chinese government was involved in the attack. What you would need is some evidence that the killer would have been incapable of acting on his own.

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well then would that mean that China is more powerful then North Korea which could easily obliterate all man kind or Iran or Isreal with the worlds best air force in the world or all of Americas threats (besides Isreal) you realy need to keep these shifts of power in mind the olympic games are not important in the chaneg of war power like hitler in the german games so it doesnt change world power my friend

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Wow Then if that works for the world cup France is a powerhouse and america is powerless

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Circumstantial evidence that it wasn't the Chinese government: The killer didn't target a relative of Michael Phelps, who is liable to win over 30 gold medals this year.

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At 8/10/08 09:34 PM, Elfer wrote: Yeah, if we single out the coach of the US volleyball team as the target. If we extend it to ANY athlete or coach, it becomes far more likely.

How then would that Chinese person know the person what related to a US coach?

It's quite apparent that if it was just a coincidence that the family member of an American coach got killed, it was a large coincidence. The fact that he was killed, and then the killer just committed suicide shows that there was some principle, and some motivation behind it.

People who commit non-specific murders in public have a pretty good track record of killing themselves.

People who sacrifice for their country, or who assassinate people have a pretty good track record of killing themselves to avoid capture. China has a very good track record of tying up loose ends.

His motivation could have been to avoid capture.

And subsequently questioned by Americans, and found out to be an agent of the Chinese government.

Considering there are thousands of athletes from other western and predominantly white countries, that negates your claim that it was just a statistical probability. Especially when you factor in all the other white people that are there that aren't involved directly with Olympians, let alone related to them or their coaches. You're going to have a hard time getting around this fact unless you can prove that the US has a significantly larger showing of family members of athletes and coaches.

If we were going to try to run numbers on this, we'd need to know a LOT more specifics

Then provide them.

Because based on the numbers we do have, it is obvious that even if were were to go through the specifics, it would still end up with it being unlikely that an American got killed, let alone an American who was related to a US Olympic coach.

If you disagree with that premise, then you better prove otherwise instead of just suggesting otherwise and claiming that your suggestion in itself negates the facts that were provided.

You changed your tune.

Yes, I did. Considering it was a foreigner stabbed during a large influx of foreigners, it's not unthinkable that there was a mentally disturbed nationalist who decided to kill someone that he perceived as an affront to his country.

A white person...

Considering the China-US rivalry, it could easily have been a deliberate attempt to kill a US citizen.

And the fact that the US citizen that died happened to be a relative of a US Volleyball coach and not just a tourist or a member of the press?

When you get right down to it, even if the person's motive and plan was to kill the relative of a US olympic athlete or coach, it still doesn't indicate that the Chinese government was involved in the attack.

It would indicate that the person had help in finding that person. And given the motives for doing so, give the fact that it's reasonable to conclude that US coach will be out of the picture, or out of his game if his family member dies, that this would help China in its overall goal of getting more medals.

What you would need is some evidence that the killer would have been incapable of acting on his own.

It's reasonable to assume he couldn't have been able to murder such a specific target, in a tourist attraction that had such intense security, in a country that is being FLOODED by people of similar appearance, visiting the same places. It would be a needle in a haystack for that person to deliberately kill such a person if it was intentional, and if it wasn't intentional at all then it would have been an incredible coincidence.

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At 8/10/08 10:17 PM, cellardoor6 wrote:

At 8/10/08 09:34 PM, Elfer wrote: Yeah, if we single out the coach of the US volleyball team as the target. If we extend it to ANY athlete or coach, it becomes far more likely.

How then would that Chinese person know the person what related to a US coach?

Stop specifying that it was a coach, and it becomes much less mysterious.

People who sacrifice for their country, or who assassinate people have a pretty good track record of killing themselves to avoid capture. China has a very good track record of tying up loose ends.

Yes, as do people who commit random or semi-random killings. The point is that his suicide is not evidence for the Chinese government's involvement.

And subsequently questioned by Americans, and found out to be an agent of the Chinese government.

Or go to jail for the rest of his life? Also, I imagine the issue would be mainly covered by Beijing homicide rather than American authorities.

Then provide them.

Because based on the numbers we do have, it is obvious that even if were were to go through the specifics, it would still end up with it being unlikely that an American got killed

Depending on killer's motivation. If his motive was to kill an American, then the chance that an American would be killed gets a lot higher.

Considering the China-US rivalry, it could easily have been a deliberate attempt to kill a US citizen.

And the fact that the US citizen that died happened to be a relative of a US Volleyball coach and not just a tourist or a member of the press?

As I've mentioned, there's liable to be a whole shitload of people related to the US olympic team wandering around. While it's not the most likely outcome, it's certainly not outside the realm of reasonable possibility.

It would indicate that the person had help in finding that person.

You don't think that a person who planned to kill someone and then themselves would be able to track down ANYONE related to the US olympic team? Or even that they'd be able to locate any American, who by chance was related to the team?

It's reasonable to assume he couldn't have been able to murder such a specific target, in a tourist attraction that had such intense security,

Where did you find details on the especially intense security measures of Drum Tower? Do you really think that it would be impossible for him to slip, say, anything sharp into a tourist location?

in a country that is being FLOODED by people of similar appearance,

I've already described how it would be possible to pick at least a North American out of a crowd.

visiting the same places. It would be a needle in a haystack for that person to deliberately kill such a person if it was intentional, and if it wasn't intentional at all then it would have been an incredible coincidence.

Coincidence? Yes. Incredible? Not really.

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At 8/10/08 10:33 PM, Elfer wrote:

At 8/10/08 10:17 PM, cellardoor6 wrote:

At 8/10/08 09:34 PM, Elfer wrote: Yeah, if we single out the coach of the US volleyball team as the target. If we extend it to ANY athlete or coach, it becomes far more likely.

How then would that Chinese person know the person what related to a US coach?

Stop specifying that it was a coach, and it becomes much less mysterious.

Stop pretending that it was just a random person.

People who sacrifice for their country, or who assassinate people have a pretty good track record of killing themselves to avoid capture. China has a very good track record of tying up loose ends.

Yes, as do people who commit random or semi-random killings. The point is that his suicide is not evidence for the Chinese government's involvement.

By itself it wouldn't be, but given the nature of it and the whole context, it makes it more suspicious. He didn't know the guy, yet he killed himself after killing him.

You're actually suggesting that a guy that was motivated by a hatred of Americans would just kill one American and then end his life? Granted, he sliced up the the guy's wife a bit as well, but he didn't go on a random stabbing spree now did he. The fact that the American he killed happened to be related to the coach of a US olympic team is just a coincidence huh? Give me a break.

And subsequently questioned by Americans, and found out to be an agent of the Chinese government.

Or go to jail for the rest of his life? Also, I imagine the issue would be mainly covered by Beijing homicide rather than American authorities.

From what I've read, US Embassy staff were on the scene immediately. If the guy was alive.

Hell, if we want to stretch our minds a bit, we could argue that it is possible that the police were in on it and the guy didn't even kill himself. Maybe he murdered the people at the behest of the Chinese government, not knowing they wanted him dead as well, and they through his ass of the balcony.

Maybe the tour guide was in on it too and her superficial, non light-threatening wounds were just to keep the story together.

Then provide them.

Because based on the numbers we do have, it is obvious that even if were were to go through the specifics, it would still end up with it being unlikely that an American got killed

Depending on killer's motivation. If his motive was to kill an American, then the chance that an American would be killed gets a lot higher.

But it would still be statistically improbable that he'd kill the family member of such an important person, assuming a Chinese person could even really tell the difference between an American and another white westerner.

If you take issue with that, I want you to find info about how many of the westerners, or Americans specifically, that are in Beijing are family members of Olympians.

Considering the China-US rivalry, it could easily have been a deliberate attempt to kill a US citizen.

And the fact that the US citizen that died happened to be a relative of a US Volleyball coach and not just a tourist or a member of the press?

As I've mentioned, there's liable to be a whole shitload of people related to the US olympic team wandering around.

Provide some information about it then so we can find the statistical probability compared to Americans, or Canadians, that are there that are not related to the US Olympic team.

It would indicate that the person had help in finding that person.

You don't think that a person who planned to kill someone and then themselves would be able to track down ANYONE related to the US olympic team?

How would they? The only way I figure they could is if they got information from hotels, from the airport, from customs, and did some stalking... which would require some bigger hands involved to make that possible.

Either that or a Chinese man looking for Americans, or relatives of American Olympians to kill, who understands English, just happened to go to the tourist site and overheard a man say; "My son-in law coaches the US Men's Volleyball team!". Then, he was afforded ample time to stab the shit out of the guy and his wife, then off himself in the process in such a public place with such a huge security detail.

It's reasonable to assume he couldn't have been able to murder such a specific target, in a tourist attraction that had such intense security,

Where did you find details on the especially intense security measures of Drum Tower?

It's funny how you base your entire argument on complete speculation, no matter how unreasonable it is, and refuse to provide a single shred of validation of anything you say. Then I speculate about something that is actually simple common sense given; security is tight in Beijing, especially tourist sites like the Drum towards, because the Olympics are being held there and China is under threat from possible terrorist attacks, and you ask where I got my information as if it was unreasonable for my to suggest it?

You consistently choose to argue in the most cowardly way I have literally ever seen anyone argue in my entire life, whether on the internet or in real life, verbally or otherwise. It's quite a feat you've managed to pull off.

Do you really think that it would be impossible for him to slip, say, anything sharp into a tourist location?

- Impossible? No.
- Ridiculously unlikely given the security situation if there was not help from the powers that be in China? Yes.

in a country that is being FLOODED by people of similar appearance,

I've already described how it would be possible to pick at least a North American out of a crowd.

See? You think your words have so much weight simply because they come from you.

Let's play by your game. Prove that the guy who killed the American spoke English and was thusly able to tell a "North America" out of the crowd.

And...go.

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At 8/11/08 04:15 AM, cellardoor6 wrote: From what I've read, US Embassy staff were on the scene immediately. If the guy was alive.

... he would have been a liability to the Chinese government if he murdered the guy at their behest.

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Oh God...
:o

You're smarter than this, cellardoor.

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Considering how important these Olympics are to China, and how much it means for the Chinese government to make them as successful as possible and improve the country's reputation through it, I imagine that having some of the Olympic visitors murdered would be among the last things that the Chinese government wants.

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At 8/11/08 08:52 AM, AapoJoki wrote: Considering how important these Olympics are to China, and how much it means for the Chinese government to make them as successful as possible and improve the country's reputation through it, I imagine that having some of the Olympic visitors murdered would be among the last things that the Chinese government wants.

I don't think the Chinese government would even risk that because they have no change of getting gold in volleyball and if the conspiracy were to be true, beyond reasonable doubt, it will irreversibly damage their reputation they desperately seek to gain.

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At 8/11/08 04:15 AM, cellardoor6 wrote:

At 8/10/08 10:33 PM, Elfer wrote: Stop specifying that it was a coach, and it becomes much less mysterious.

Stop pretending that it was just a random person.

Stop pretending you have sufficient evidence to claim that it wasn't. Also, my point is that you're trying to narrow this down to relatives of coaches only, when the same claims of government involvement could be made if it was the relative of an athlete, or a member of an athlete's support team, etc.

You're actually suggesting that a guy that was motivated by a hatred of Americans would just kill one American and then end his life?

Gee, I don't know, maybe someone like a security guard acted immediately after they saw the attack begin, and he didn't want to take the chance of being apprehended. We don't have specifics.

Where did you find details on the especially intense security measures of Drum Tower?

It's funny how you base your entire argument on complete speculation, no matter how unreasonable it is, and refuse to provide a single shred of validation of anything you say. Then I speculate about something that is actually simple common sense

What you are describing is an amazing feat of security. You expect all tourist destinations in Beijing to have security so tight that nobody could slip any sharp object in without the assistance of the Chinese government.

Do you really think that it would be impossible for him to slip, say, anything sharp into a tourist location?

- Impossible? No.
- Ridiculously unlikely given the security situation if there was not help from the powers that be in China? Yes.

So, are you saying that you really believe that they have enough security in Beijing to cover the olympics AND to keep every sharp object out of every single tourist destination, as well as every popular public walkway?

Unless you have some actual details that support this, I'd say that you are the one making the unreasonable claim here.

How would they? The only way I figure they could is if they got information from hotels, from the airport, from customs, and did some stalking... which would require some bigger hands involved to make that possible.

Are you asking how I would do it if I was crazy? If I wanted to take out any random person related to the US olympic team, I'd probably work through blogs/social networking sites and shit until I found someone who announced some of their tourism plans, then stake it out.

Since I can't easily locate a blog for Todd Bachman or his family members (although it's hampered by the fact that blogs are flooded with the news of his death), I'd tend to say that this is a situation where someone from the US was murdered, and through bad luck it was someone related to the olympic team.

Maybe the tour guide was in on it too and her superficial, non light-threatening wounds were just to keep the story together.

If you take issue with that, I want you to find info about how many of the westerners, or Americans specifically, that are in Beijing are family members of Olympians.

Provide some information about it then so we can find the statistical probability compared to Americans, or Canadians, that are there that are not related to the US Olympic team.

Let's play by your game. Prove that the guy who killed the American spoke English and was thusly able to tell a "North America" out of the crowd.

And...go.

Okay, let's get something straight about this discussion:

YOU are the one making the positive claim. You are claiming that the Chinese government was most likely involved. I am not claiming that it's impossible that they were involved, my claim is that there is insufficient evidence to claim that government intervention was necessary for this to happen.

That means that when we're discussing things like probabilities of a North American being somehow related to the US olympic team, it's YOUR responsibility to back up YOUR positive claim with statistics. You claim that the probability is so low that it's nigh-insignificant. I raised doubt by mentioning what a large group of people could potentially be performance risks. If YOU want to continue claiming that it's impossible for an olympic relative to be killed by chance, YOU provide data about how many North Americans are visiting Beijing for the olympics.

If I was claiming that the Chinese government was DEFINITELY NOT involved, things would be different. Too bad for you, I'm not claiming that. I'm claiming that there's insufficient evidence to conclude that the government was involved. I am not, repeat NOT claiming that there is sufficient evidence to preclude government involvement.

You might call this a "cowardly" position, but here in the real world, it's called reserving judgment until there is sufficient evidence to reach a conclusion.

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At 8/11/08 09:22 AM, Elfer wrote:

At 8/11/08 04:15 AM, cellardoor6 wrote:

At 8/10/08 10:33 PM, Elfer wrote: Stop specifying that it was a coach, and it becomes much less mysterious.

Stop pretending that it was just a random person.

Stop pretending you have sufficient evidence to claim that it wasn't.

Um I do have sufficient evidence. We already know the guy was related to a US Olympic coach. And given the the simple fact that you have provided zero evidence to show to the contrary, it was a statistical improbability that he would get killed due to the ridiculous amount of people in Beijing right now.

You're actually suggesting that a guy that was motivated by a hatred of Americans would just kill one American and then end his life?

Gee, I don't know, maybe someone like a security guard acted immediately after they saw the attack begin, and he didn't want to take the chance of being apprehended. We don't have specifics.

So a man walked around with a knife, and intentionally entered a tourist site with the intent of killing Americans, and he killed himself out of desperation? You're still ignoring the fact that the whole thing is quite desperate and probably ineffective if he really just wanted to kill Americans.

Factor in the fact the people he attacked directly were related to a US Olympic coach... then that deranged Chinese guy just must have been massively lucky. Just out of sheer chance he managed to salvage his pathetic attempt at an American-killing spree by just happening to kill a family member of a US coach.

What you are describing is an amazing feat of security.

Because metal detectors don't exist in Communist China.

How would they? The only way I figure they could is if they got information from hotels, from the airport, from customs, and did some stalking... which would require some bigger hands involved to make that possible.

Are you asking how I would do it if I was crazy?

You're the one suggesting it wouldn't be difficult to locate the family member of a US coach for the purpose of killing him. What you are describing is an amazing feat.

If I wanted to take out any random person related to the US olympic team, I'd probably work through blogs/social networking sites and shit until I found someone who announced some of their tourism plans, then stake it out.

WOW! You think you could actually do that? Here, let's have a little experiment, go find the blog of another family member of the US Olympic team and see what tourist sites they are going to and when.

Since I can't easily locate a blog for Todd Bachman or his family members (although it's hampered by the fact that blogs are flooded with the news of his death), I'd tend to say that this is a situation where someone from the US was murdered, and through bad luck it was someone related to the olympic team.

Then find info from someone else.

If you are actually suggesting that it's easy for someone to find the time and place of a person like that going to a tourist site, then put your money where your mouth is and find it yourself and report back.

Or you can just have a little honesty for once and admit that just some random wacko is not going to be able to locate and kill someone like that without either having an enormous amount of luck or help from someone higher up with more resources available.

YOU are the one making the positive claim.

You've made sevearl.

And I lent credibility to it by circumstantial evidence, as well as actual numbers to show the low likelihood of it having taken place the way YOU claimed it happened.

But you have made several positive claims as well. You were the one who stated confidently that if someone was looking for first a westerner, then an American to kill in China, it wouldn't be unlikely that they killed the family member of a US coach in their random act. You also stated that if they WERE trying to find and assassinate that person, it would not be difficult to do. Therefore, in order for you to add this to the argument, you're going to have to validate it and provide proof that this is really the case.

I didn't say you had to prove your underlying claim that the Chinese government wasn't involved. I suggested that you provide evidence of the several confidently made claims you used back up your basis of logic behind it.

That means that when we're discussing things like probabilities of a North American being somehow related to the US olympic team, it's YOUR responsibility to back up YOUR positive claim with statistics.

Let's recap here. YOU said that the Chinese guy was just looking for a white person to kill. I proved to you that the chances of that ending up being the coach of an American Olympic team was rare given the presence of other western, predominately white countries. You changed your tune to say it was an American, and you're claiming confidently that a family member of a US coach being the person who happens to be whacked is not unlikely. Prove it.

You claim that the probability is so low that it's nigh-insignificant. I raised doubt by mentioning what a large group of people could potentially be performance risks.

You raised doubt by continually morphing your argument and repeatedy making new claims that you can't validate, yet assume are automatically factual and valid.

Prove that it's not statistically unlikely that the American coach got killed if the Chinese person was in fact just looking for an American or "North American" to kill.

If I was claiming that the Chinese government was DEFINITELY NOT involved, things would be different. Too bad for you, I'm not claiming that. I'm claiming that there's insufficient evidence to conclude that the government was involved.

No, in fact you haven't at all. If you were just arguing there is insufficient evidence, you wouldn't have repeatedly brought up claims that you are using as evidence to suggest that the it was just some guy looking to kill a whitey/American/North American.

You are making an alternate, direct claim and that has been the basis of your argument. You didn't just say "we don't know what happened" you are arguing that the guy was looking to kill Americans and that the coach's family member being killed is not odd if that was the guy's motivation.

You may try to pretend like you have zero burden of proof by continuing to change the nuance of your argument and falsely appear impartial or neutral given a lack of evidence, but you have continually made claims that you have to provide evidence for, and you have made "positive claims" yourself.

You really have a problem where you consistently making arguments, while refusing to ever provide any evidence for anything you ever say in the entire process.

You might call this a "cowardly" position, but here in the real world, it's called reserving judgment until there is sufficient evidence to reach a conclusion.

And yet you didn't reserve judgment. Your judgment is that the man was just looking for an American to kill.

You have serious issues with integrity (or the lack thereof).

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Chances are that if the Chinese man killed someone else other than an American or someone related to an American athelete no one here would care near as much. I've see confirmation-bias from cellardoor6, and inconsistency from Elfer. Perhaps we should go back to the actual topic of Olympic medals equaling the power of a country. I don't want any trouble, just suggesting that we stay on topic.

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At 8/13/08 12:09 AM, MultiCanimefan wrote: Chances are that if the Chinese man killed someone else other than an American or someone related to an American athelete no one here would care near as much. I've see confirmation-bias from cellardoor6, and inconsistency from Elfer. Perhaps we should go back to the actual topic of Olympic medals equaling the power of a country. I don't want any trouble, just suggesting that we stay on topic.

You're serious?

Let's think about this for a moment: The issue of whether or not the Chinese government is willing to have people killed for a boost in the Olympics is DIRECTLY related to the topic about whether or not medals equal real or perceived national power. If China's goal first and foremost was to succeed in the Olympics for propaganda effect to validate their national power to their people and people of other countries, then the topic about whether they did, could, or would whack someone to facilitate it is completely reasonable discussion. It's a simple fact that you're wrong and incapable of simple logic if you actually suggest that what we were discussing didn't relate to the topic. Let's just get that out of the way first.

What's funny though, is while you managed to conclude that we weren't staying on topic, in the process of that very same post in which you said that, you didn't even add ANYTHING to the topic. All you did was jump into a thread, give a critique of other people, and criticize them for not posting about the topic even though they were doing just that... and YOU didn't. You are officially the most excruciatingly annoying poster in my recent memory. Not only do your posts reek of hypocrisy and just plain idiocy, but you insist on sticking your nose in other people's business over and over again.

You're more than welcome to buzz off.

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Celler aren't there much much better targets than a relative of volleyball coach?
Like why not an actual athlete, like a gymnast?
Or swimming star like phelps?

If this killer was an agent of the government and he had their help, virtually anyone would be able to be targeted successfully.
There are so many more targets that would be millions of times more demoralizing.

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It doesn't necessarily more medals won in the Olympics means power. It kinda does though, it is a whole different war (a peace war) where countries show their strengths. but I hope one country wins to many medals remember Munich 1970 Olympic games where they killed all of the athletes for winning?.

Reminder-"In the time of Olympics War shall cease"..........Then why the hell Bush is still in Iraq?

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At 8/13/08 03:17 AM, LEUTENANT wrote: It doesn't necessarily more medals won in the Olympics means power. It kinda does though, it is a
Reminder-"In the time of Olympics War shall cease"..........Then why the hell Bush is still in Iraq?

stop posting that picture.
:O

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Cellar, if the Chinese Government was going to target Athletes and coaches to increase their chances, then why the hell has only one person died? It would be piss easy for China to make it look like their was some kind of seperatists attack on something considering they had that thing where some Policemen died a few days before the olympics began.

A bomb might be a bit OTT, though they've had plenty of time to plant something in the US team quarters or whatever, but ' accidentally' letting someone into an arena where a large number of US athletes are , such as say the swimming pool, and then just letting them go crazy in there would be much more affective. They could've taken out Phelps in one of his qualifiers which would have been a huge blow to the US team's morale and its medal tally.

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At 8/12/08 11:58 PM, cellardoor6 wrote: So a man walked around with a knife, and intentionally entered a tourist site with the intent of killing Americans, and he killed himself out of desperation?

No. People who commit public murders frequently plan beforehand that they're going to kill themselves afterwards (c.f. almost every school shooting ever).

Because metal detectors don't exist in Communist China.

After the incident, Beijing authorities began placing metal detectors outside tourist destinations. This would strongly suggest that there were no metal detectors outside Drum Tower at the time of the incident.

Furthermore, ceramic knives are widely available and are not caught by metal detectors.

There is no practical way to keep all sharp objects out of all tourist destinations in a city the size of Beijing.

WOW! You think you could actually do that? Here, let's have a little experiment, go find the blog of another family member of the US Olympic team and see what tourist sites they are going to and when.

What, you're really amazed by the idea that someone could be located to a reasonable degree through research? Let's give it a try...

Margot Shumway is a US olympic rower.
Her mother is Julia Shumway (Say cheese!)

She mentions that she will be visiting Bank One and a restaurant mentioned by Anthony Bourdain (most likely Li Qun duck restaurant, which he mentions here and here. Li Qun duck restaurant is located at 11 Beixiangfeng Hutong, Chongwen.

Tomorrow, they will be visiting Tiananmen Square and the Forbidden City, before heading to Bank of America.

This information took roughly 15 minutes to find. Imagine what you could do if you had days. I think this can be taken as proof of concept if nothing else.

If you are actually suggesting that it's easy for someone to find the time and place of a person like that going to a tourist site, then put your money where your mouth is and find it yourself and report back.

The precise time is unnecessary. Any of the locations I mentioned could be staked out for long enough that you wouldn't need to know when they planned to show up.

It's not as if suicidal killers need to be too concerned about wasting their time.

Or you can just have a little honesty for once and admit that just some random wacko is not going to be able to locate and kill someone like that without either having an enormous amount of luck or help from someone higher up with more resources available.

lulz

And I lent credibility to it by circumstantial evidence, as well as actual numbers to show the low likelihood of it having taken place the way YOU claimed it happened.

You mentioned one number, that being the number of US olympic athletes. That number alone doesn't mean anything.

But you have made several positive claims as well. You were the one who stated confidently that if someone was looking for first a westerner, then an American to kill in China, it wouldn't be unlikely that they killed the family member of a US coach in their random act.

I never specified a coach. I repeatedly said "someone related to the US olympic team." I also didn't say it wouldn't be "unlikely," I said it wouldn't be beyond reasonable probability, i.e. it's not as though it's a one in a thousand shot or anything.

You also stated that if they WERE trying to find and assassinate that person, it would not be difficult to do. Therefore, in order for you to add this to the argument, you're going to have to validate it and provide proof that this is really the case.

Check.

I didn't say you had to prove your underlying claim that the Chinese government wasn't involved. I suggested that you provide evidence of the several confidently made claims you used back up your basis of logic behind it.

Granted. The two most important claims that I think I made were that it's not so unlikely as to be ridiculous, and that it's possible to track down someone if you're determined. I think I've already sufficiently demonstrated the latter. Shortly: a back-of-the-envelope estimate of the former.

Prove that it's not statistically unlikely that the American coach got killed if the Chinese person was in fact just looking for an American or "North American" to kill.

If we want to ballpark it?

450,000 tourists expected in Beijing for the olympics. Let's say a substantial chunk of those, say, 20% are from North America. That's 90,000 potential targets.

There's about 600 US athletes. Let's say that there's roughly 0.5 coaches per athlete (gymnasts have a lot, rowers have less, etc), and about 1 support staff per athlete. Let's also assume that each athlete and coach brings along roughly four people (parents and significant other/friends/other important relatives. Considering we're talking about in-laws being killed here, NOT UNREASONABLE).

That comes to a total of 5100 people, or 5.67% of the North Americans in Beijing. Likely? Not really, but certainly not beyond the realm of reasonable possibility.

No, in fact you haven't at all. If you were just arguing there is insufficient evidence, you wouldn't have repeatedly brought up claims that you are using as evidence to suggest that the it was just some guy looking to kill a whitey/American/North American.

What I've done is propose an alternate explanation that doesn't involve the Chinese government, and showed evidence that it's quite plausible. Tell me, how else would I show that the government wasn't necessarily involved?

As I've said, none of my evidence can preclude the involvement of the Chinese government. It's therefore not reasonable for me to conclude that they definitely were not involved.

You are making an alternate, direct claim and that has been the basis of your argument. You didn't just say "we don't know what happened" you are arguing that the guy was looking to kill Americans and that the coach's family member being killed is not odd if that was the guy's motivation.

I'm arguing that this is a possible situation. I can't argue specifically for the guy's motivation unless I had access to a bunch of his personal shit, which I don't.

You might call this a "cowardly" position, but here in the real world, it's called reserving judgment until there is sufficient evidence to reach a conclusion.

And yet you didn't reserve judgment. Your judgment is that the man was just looking for an American to kill.

No, that is not my judgment. My judgment is that due to the reasonable possibility of that scenario, it is imprudent to conclude that the Chinese government is involved.

Please, tell me, how should I claim that a conclusion is too hasty without providing an alternate explanation?

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By the way I feel like a creepy internet stalker now THANKS CELLAR

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I correlate it with teams flooding events. China has over 600, the US has almost 600, Russia, Australia and Germany have over 400, Japan, Britain, France and Italy have over 300 - it's no wonder they rank higher in the medals table as they can enter numerous competitors in each event (not counting team events, be it relay, football, basketball or whatever).

With that under consideration, Argentina, Canada and the Ukraine are woefully underperforming, whilst South Korea are punching above their weight.

Another way to look at it would be to note Spain and Sweden, who should have a few more medals, are floating around the low teens to mid 20s, whilst Azerbaijan are 14th overall - and are majorly punching above their weight as their team is dwarfed by either of the aforementioned ones. Georgia, too, are punching above their weight as their team is 10% the size of Britains, but lies in 10th - ahead of Britain right now.

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At 8/13/08 10:37 AM, D2Kvirus wrote: With that under consideration, Argentina, Canada and the Ukraine are woefully underperforming,

To be fair, we haven't gotten around to the events where Canada traditionally does well.

Those don't start until 2010 :/

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If by, economical power than maybe, the number of medals does equal the power of a country. However, a nation that has a strong economy and can therefore spend more money training atheltes can still not have many medals because there are more pressing issues concerning them than the Olympics and training atheltes for them. I think having more medals means either the country that has the most does it for the love of the sport and love of the game, which to me is highly unlikely these days, or they have a desire to stroke their own Egos as if a medal entitles them to dominance in the world.

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The way I understood it, the teams were lined up in order of how many strokes in Chinese it takes to write the countries name.

I doubt the Chinese are trying to "hex" the Americans. This isn't fucking HOGWARTS.

It's quite like the US to look for threats where they don't exist.

;

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At 8/13/08 09:58 AM, Elfer wrote:

At 8/12/08 11:58 PM, cellardoor6 wrote: So a man walked around with a knife, and intentionally entered a tourist site with the intent of killing Americans, and he killed himself out of desperation?

No. People who commit public murders frequently plan beforehand that they're going to kill themselves afterwards (c.f. almost every school shooting ever).

And killing a single person, that you don't even know, would be a worthy last act before killing yourself? Sounds like quite a waste for that guy if his goal really was to just kill Americans.

After the incident, Beijing authorities began placing metal detectors outside tourist destinations.

Hmm, noted.This would strongly suggest that there were no metal detectors outside Drum Tower at the time of the incident.

WOW! You think you could actually do that? Here, let's have a little experiment, go find the blog of another family member of the US Olympic team and see what tourist sites they are going to and when.

What, you're really amazed by the idea that someone could be located to a reasonable degree through research? Let's give it a try...

Margot Shumway is a US olympic rower.
Her mother is Julia Shumway (Say cheese!)

And finding this person in chaos of a tourist site in the chaos of a city that is hosting the Olypmics, being invaded by westerners would be easy just because you know where they might be on a certain day?

She mentions that she will be visiting Bank One and a restaurant mentioned by Anthony Bourdain (most likely Li Qun duck restaurant, which he mentions here and here.

Conjecture.

Li Qun duck restaurant is located at 11 Beixiangfeng Hutong, Chongwen.

And even if that was the place, do you think someone could find her just because she might go there in the timeframe that spans weeks?

They aren't mentioning the time they are going, and a small restaurant is not even an applicable comparison to the Drum Tower which is a large, busy tourist site.

Tomorrow, they will be visiting Tiananmen Square and the Forbidden City, before heading to Bank of America.

And you think that someone could find that woman based on that picture, by simply knowing that they might show up at Tiananmen Square in the space of a day? Do you know how big Tiananmen square is? Do you know how many people visit there daily, let alone now that Beijing is hosting the Olympics.

This information took roughly 15 minutes to find. Imagine what you could do if you had days. I think this can be taken as proof of concept if nothing else.

Not really.

And that blog is in English mind you. How likely is it that the guy spoke English, which is unlikely in China, even according to that blog? How well would that jumble of text be translated with an internet translator?

The precise time is unnecessary.

No, actually it's pretty damn necessary considering the thousands and thousands of people swarming those tourist sites.

Or you can just have a little honesty for once and admit that just some random wacko is not going to be able to locate and kill someone like that without either having an enormous amount of luck or help from someone higher up with more resources available.

lulz

Oh you're feeling confident are you?

In that case find the actual blog, if there is one, of the guy that got killed. Otherwise this little experiment you had, as pleasantly surprised I am that you actually did something, is hereby moot, muahahaha.

And I lent credibility to it by circumstantial evidence, as well as actual numbers to show the low likelihood of it having taken place the way YOU claimed it happened.

You mentioned one number, that being the number of US olympic athletes.

In comparison to the number of athletes from other western countries. The US has a small showing compared to other western countries, making it unlikely that US coach's family member would get whacked by chance from a Chinese man that was just looking to kill a white person... which was YOUR original assumption that you have since changed.

That number alone doesn't mean anything.

Hmm actually it does. Unless you can provide some sort of evidence that the US has more family members and support staff per Olympian/Coach than other countries.

I also didn't say it wouldn't be "unlikely," I said it wouldn't be beyond reasonable probability, i.e. it's not as though it's a one in a thousand shot or anything.

And you provided nothing but your imagination to show that. Why don't you provide a number that does mean something then?

Check.

Moot.

Granted. The two most important claims that I think I made were that it's not so unlikely as to be ridiculous

And you have not validated that claim whatsoever.

and that it's possible to track down someone if you're determined.

And you're suggesting this as if it means the guy who killed Bachman did this...

If we want to ballpark it?

450,000 tourists expected in Beijing for the olympics.

Noted.

Let's say a substantial chunk of those, say, 20% are from North America.

Complete speculation.

Provide evidence or it's moot.

That's 90,000 potential targets.

Unsubstantiated opinion.

Provide evidence or it's moot.

There's about 600 US athletes. Let's say that there's roughly 0.5 coaches per athlete (gymnasts have a lot, rowers have less, etc), and about 1 support staff per athlete.

Speculation. How are you coming so confidently to the conclusion that this is the makeup of the North Americans in Beijing?

Provide evidence or it's moot.

Let's also assume that each athlete and coach brings along roughly four people (parents and significant other/friends/other important relatives.

Conjecture.

That comes to a total of 5100 people, or 5.67% of the North Americans in Beijing.

LOL

Likely? Not really, but certainly not beyond the realm of reasonable possibility.

Even though your figure there is entirely meaningless, that would still be a small likelihood that an American got killed according to you. You say it's not "beyond the realm of reasonable possibility" but it would be a statistical improbability.

What I've done is propose an alternate explanation that doesn't involve the Chinese government, and showed evidence that it's quite plausible.

Your evidence shows it's plausible that someone can track someone else down via their blog, but you didn't show that it's plausible in this case, especially considering the person would have had to find and kill someone at a large tourist site.

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medals = the power of the indvidual
medals /= the power of an entire country

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At 8/14/08 08:05 PM, cellardoor6 wrote: In that case find the actual blog, if there is one, of the guy that got killed. Otherwise this little experiment you had, as pleasantly surprised I am that you actually did something, is hereby moot, muahahaha.

Dog I was already all "I can't find this blog" followed by "he was probably just all 'stabby stabby!' and fluked out yo"

That comes to a total of 5100 people, or 5.67% of the North Americans in Beijing.

LOL

Pssshhhh. This was back of the friggin' envelope man. Considering your ENTIRE argument is based on the idea that it's nigh-impossible that this person was killed at random, shouldn't you be able to come up with some numbers yourself? The ones I mentioned were fairly reasonable.

Even though your figure there is entirely meaningless, that would still be a small likelihood that an American got killed according to you. You say it's not "beyond the realm of reasonable possibility" but it would be a statistical improbability.

Government involvement in civilian foreigner assassinations is also pretty rare. Considering the massive number of people in the surrounding area I'd be surprised if some crazy DIDN'T come to Beijing to stab someone.

Your evidence shows it's plausible that someone can track someone else down via their blog, but you didn't show that it's plausible in this case, especially considering the person would have had to find and kill someone at a large tourist site.

I also gave a reasonable estimate that there's a statistically significant chance of a team-relation being randomly selected from the pool of North American tourists.

In any case, if it was the Chinese government, they did a pretty shit job of affecting the Americans' performance in volleyball. You'd think if they were out to really damage the chances of the Americans, they'd go after that fish disguised as a human that's winning all those gold medals.

Either way, the US is going to win the final medal tally anyway, now that most of the gymnastics events are over. There's 47 events to be contested in athletics, meaning that the US has roughly 46-48 more gold medals locked up.