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Yesterday, the Russian-backed separatists of South Ossetia carried out artillery fire over Georgian villages without any warning whatsoever. Michael Saakashvili, the President of Georgia, called for peace and said that he had given an order not to retaliate and not to open fire back on the separatists, and also promised a complete amnesty for all war crimes the Ossetians had committed, if they were to cease fire. However, the separatists did not only ignore the call of negotiations, but started carrying out massive attacks on more villages. An hour later, as it was expected, the Georgian forces retaliated by its full military capabilities, and as in result, captured 5 villages in the separatist region, and right now, as you're reading this topic, the capital of the separatists, Tskinvali, is fully encircled by the Georgian forces, waiting for the right moment to capture the city, which had already been annihilated and obliterated by the artillery response.
Now I am in Tbilisi, which is in safe distance from the conflict zone, but the Russian aviation has dropped several bombs in Gori, which is quite close.
I can only hope that we get the international support we deserved when this escalates into something bigger. Hopefully it won't, but as it seems, it will.

At 8/8/08 04:44 AM, BuddhaGeo wrote: An hour later, as it was expected, the Georgian forces retaliated by its full military capabilities, and as in result, captured 5 villages in the separatist region, and right now, as you're reading this topic, the capital of the separatists, Tskinvali, is fully encircled by the Georgian forces, waiting for the right moment to capture the city, which had already been annihilated and obliterated by the artillery response.

Hopefully Georgian forces thoroughly destroy the South Ossetia separatists. But if Russia really is directly supporting them as I've read they are, this might lead to a war between Georgia and Russia which would be bad news.

Now I am in Tbilisi, which is in safe distance from the conflict zone, but the Russian aviation has dropped several bombs in Gori, which is quite close.

Shouldn't that be considered an attack on Georgia directly by Russia? Shouldn't Georgia immediately go to the UN with it?

What is in Gori that would be a military target for the Russians anyway?

I can only hope that we get the international support we deserved when this escalates into something bigger. Hopefully it won't, but as it seems, it will.

I hope so too. Georgia sent troops to Iraq and Afghanistan so it would be reasonable for the US to help even though Georgia isn't a NATO member (yet).

Oh and by the way, I hope you and your family are safe and everything. Hopefully the fighting and bombing doesn't spread to where you live.

Oh damn...

I don't know how much truth there is to it, but I just saw on a German news channel that Russian fighters and fighters from Abkhazia are on their way to Tskhinvali to fight Georgian troops and help the separatists. That's some serious shit if Russia really is doing that.

At 8/8/08 05:18 AM, cellardoor6 wrote:

Now I am in Tbilisi, which is in safe distance from the conflict zone, but the Russian aviation has dropped several bombs in Gori, which is quite close.

Shouldn't that be considered an attack on Georgia directly by Russia? Shouldn't Georgia immediately go to the UN with it?

That is not the first time the Russians have blatantly violated our air space; they've been doing that for months. And guess what, the UN hasn't done anything. Just one of those diplomatic speeches that called for peace, but no actual solution to the problem.
UN is useless right now.

At 8/8/08 05:22 AM, cellardoor6 wrote: Oh damn...

I don't know how much truth there is to it, but I just saw on a German news channel that Russian fighters and fighters from Abkhazia are on their way to Tskhinvali to fight Georgian troops and help the separatists. That's some serious shit if Russia really is doing that.

I heard nothing about that on the Georgian channels, but if that is indeed true, then I guess we are in complete shit.

At 8/8/08 05:25 AM, BuddhaGeo wrote:

At 8/8/08 05:18 AM, cellardoor6 wrote:

Now I am in Tbilisi, which is in safe distance from the conflict zone, but the Russian aviation has dropped several bombs in Gori, which is quite close.

Shouldn't that be considered an attack on Georgia directly by Russia? Shouldn't Georgia immediately go to the UN with it?

That is not the first time the Russians have blatantly violated our air space; they've been doing that for months.

I know, I remember seeing a video from a Georgian UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) where a Russian MiG-29 came in behind it and shot it down over Georgian territory. The Russians just lied and said they had no clue about it and that separatists shot it down (the separatists don't have fighter aircraft), which was funny because the footage later came out and totally caught them in a lie.... you could clearly see a Russian MiG launch a missile at it.

And guess what, the UN hasn't done anything. Just one of those diplomatic speeches that called for peace, but no actual solution to the problem.
UN is useless right now.

I agree.

At 8/8/08 05:27 AM, BuddhaGeo wrote: I heard nothing about that on the Georgian channels, but if that is indeed true, then I guess we are in complete shit.

The BBC is saying it too:

Hundreds of fighters from Russia and Georgia's other breakaway region of Abkhazia are reportedly heading to aid the separatist troops.

Oh, and here's the video of the Russians shooting down the UAV. Just in case anyone thinks I'm bullshitting.

Am I being too pessimistic or this seems as a precursor of WW3 if Russia steps in with its full force?

The Russian aviation has just entered Georgian air space and bombed several villages.

The Georgian side has just declared that the amnesty for all those who drop their weapons is still in power.

At 8/8/08 05:18 AM, cellardoor6 wrote: Shouldn't that be considered an attack on Georgia directly by Russia? Shouldn't Georgia immediately go to the UN with it?

It would only be an attack if the rumours of Russia funneling money and supplies to the sepretists are true, if they are. Fuck.

The Russians have just started to advance their tanks into the separatist region!
THIS IS FUCKING CRAZY!

The Russian tanks are just a few miles away from reaching Tsxinvali.

I knew Russians were stirring shit up in South Ossetia but I didn't know they would go too far, as too invade the capital. Crazy stuff.

That's just insane. Epic timing on the Russians as well doing this at the start of the Olympics when the worlds media will be busy reporting on sport. That suggests they've been wanting to do this for a while...

Thanks to America for trying to deescalate the tense situation and settle things down.
OH WAIT, America ain't doing shit.

At 8/8/08 11:19 AM, PinkBeer wrote:

At 8/8/08 10:50 AM, BuddhaGeo wrote: Thanks to America for trying to deescalate the tense situation and settle things down.
OH WAIT, America ain't doing shit.

It's not America's duty to look after you. The UN should do something, though.

The UN is just as useless as the League of Nations.

This is really interesting. I'm personally betting that the Russians will be content with booting the Georgian soldiers out of South-Ossetia but it's possible that they'll also use this as a pretext to finally get rid of Saakashvili altogether and enforce at least a minor regime change. The Georgians are currently purging villages in South-Ossetia according to the Kremlin and if these reports are true (might be exaggerated or entirely made up) then the Georgians are really going for the win - since the Russians are justifying sending tanks across the border by saying that they're trying to protect their citizens in South-Ossetia (half of South-Ossetia has a Russian passport) it might be favourable for the Georgians to get rid of these people and curb the intensity of problems in the future. I'm betting on either a stalemate and a return to the status quo (South-Ossetia held by the rebels and factually independent yet internationally recognised as a part of Georgia) or a slight Russian win and, hence, a stronger Russian military presence in the region. I doubt there's any serious willpower among the NATO nations to really draw a line in the sand here.

At 8/8/08 10:31 AM, Tri-Nitro-Toluene wrote: Epic timing on the Russians as well doing this at the start of the Olympics when the worlds media will be busy reporting on sport. That suggests they've been wanting to do this for a while...

Well, it's not working, now that the opening ceremony is over all Dutch websites that I've checked are headlining the conflict in South-Ossetia and so are the BBC, CNN and FOX. From now on, most of the happenings in the Olympics will be reported in special sports sections of websites and papers so I'm pretty sure this little (potential) war will garner a sufficient amount attention - and it should, especially for people like me who couldn't possibly care less about the Olympics.

Also, if the timing wasn't a coincidence it might have been solely an idea of the South-Ossetians instead of the Russians. I'm not sure whether the contacts are close enough to enable this degree of central planning.

i just dont understand fucking russia. they are quintessential passive aggressive neurotics. fucking crazy instigative pseudo bully bull crap.

what the fuck.?

great post... unfortunately.

The President of Georgia has just said live that Tsxinvali and all major villages in the conflict zone are under control by the Georgian army, except for Java, the last-standing refuge for the separatists.
I'm expecting Java to be sieged today at night, considering that it is already completely encircled.

I hope this ends soon, otherwise your country is in for a shit storm.

A war between Russia and China would be the most awesome thing to the Human race.
They both are so fucking dangerous, especially Putin this fucking fascist.

At 8/8/08 11:19 AM, PinkBeer wrote: It's not America's duty to look after you.

They did a lot more for us in Iraq then those damn Aussies and Japanese. We should return the favor. But anyway...

God only knows the Regional/Global consequences of this if it comes to full scale war (which it seems to be). Any odds that Russia will support Iran's Nuclear ambitions further if the U.S supports Georgia or something like that? Is this only the start of some massive Russian campaign to eventually swallow up the entire former Soviet Union? Will other frozen conflicts be reignited as well?

And to the OP, if shit gets too dangerous I suggest you pack your bags and move to turkey or something.

At 8/8/08 07:49 AM, IrishChrisman wrote:

At 8/8/08 05:18 AM, cellardoor6 wrote: Shouldn't that be considered an attack on Georgia directly by Russia? Shouldn't Georgia immediately go to the UN with it?

It would only be an attack if the rumours of Russia funneling money and supplies to the sepretists are true, if they are. Fuck.

They are true, everyone knows that.

At 8/8/08 10:31 AM, Tri-Nitro-Toluene wrote: That's just insane. Epic timing on the Russians as well doing this at the start of the Olympics when the worlds media will be busy reporting on sport. That suggests they've been wanting to do this for a while...

That's what the Georgian President said on the news.

At 8/8/08 10:50 AM, BuddhaGeo wrote: Thanks to America for trying to deescalate the tense situation and settle things down.
OH WAIT, America ain't doing shit.

Condoleeza made a statement, telling Russia to withdraw from Georgian territory and halt its attacks.

But I don't see what else the US could do. What do you think the US should do?

So what do you guys think of Georgia's chances of holding the Russians off until a ceasefire could be signed or something?

At 8/8/08 05:34 PM, animehater wrote: So what do you guys think of Georgia's chances of holding the Russians off until a ceasefire could be signed or something?

Without aid of some sort, almost none. Russia may not be the super power it once was, but it's more than powerful enough to take out Georgia if it has to or wants to.

Im watching the BBC's coverage of this now, and apparently the Russians are using terms such as ' ethnic cleansing' against South Ossetian Russians. Now whilst I think Georgia might well have made a blunde rin this in the way its decided to try and take out the seperatists ( Ie bombing stuff) I think Russia is using hyperbole slightly.

At 8/8/08 05:34 PM, animehater wrote: So what do you guys think of Georgia's chances of holding the Russians off until a ceasefire could be signed or something?

I don't think it's that simple because holding them off would require an escalation of force, meaning more losses on both sides. If the Russians start losing more planes, tanks, and troops, it might just make a ceasefire impossible because the Russian are trying to have credible force in the region. If Russia just stops fighting after it effectively or seemingly got spanked by a much weaker country like Georgia, that would be too humiliating for them. They want it to look like they crushed "Georgian aggression".

This conflict has little to do with Georgia and separatists. It has everything to do with Russia trying to reassert itself in its former sphere of influence. This is Russian imperialism and little else. Georgia has become too close to the US and the west for Russian liking. Georgia has become too democratic and too prosperous for Russian liking. Russia sees Georgia as rightfully belonging to Russians, or at least rightfully under the thumb of Russians, and that's why Russia has maintained its support for the separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, giving some of them Russian citizenship... giving Russia a pretext to intervene there if Georgia moves against them to regain Georgian territorial integrity.

With that said, I hope the Georgian military does well and I hope the Russian get out immediately. But I don't think it's going to happen.

If it doesn't escalate too much and a ceasefire gets signed. I bet the Russians won't withdraw their forces. So this little adventure might have been solely for Russia to get a stronger military presence there.

what *can* the usa do cellar? Our hands are super tied at the moment.

sanctions on Russia, no fucking way they supply greater Europe with oil. stern talking too...yea im sure they will give that serious consideration... america cannot even come off as completely sympathetic for pain of drawing a defined line in the sand and forcing them to an ultimadom.

I did consider, however, that this may be a possible way for russia to quell any doubts about their western loyalties for iranian ethos. we as americans, and thruthfully the world, need iran and russia working together, believe it or not, as even in the most heated situations of the cold war russia was a cool headed opponent that did not act without heavy consideration and tactic. and it is my novice opinion that the iranian government has been keeping russia at arms length because they were unsure of russian diplomatic connections with the usa. they cannot appear to be our lackies whatsoever.

has life been lost in this conflict yet?

At 8/8/08 05:51 PM, cellardoor6 wrote: This conflict has little to do with Georgia and separatists. It has everything to do with Russia trying to reassert itself in its former sphere of influence. This is Russian imperialism and little else. Georgia has become too close to the US and the west for Russian liking. Georgia has become too democratic and too prosperous for Russian liking. Russia sees Georgia as rightfully belonging to Russians, or at least rightfully under the thumb of Russians, and that's why Russia has maintained its support for the separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, giving some of them Russian citizenship... giving Russia a pretext to intervene there if Georgia moves against them to regain Georgian territorial integrity.

I completely agree, but let's also not forget the importance of Kosovo in this situation; when many NATO nations decided to recognise Kosovo's independence Russia felt that the territorial sovereignty of a cultural and historical brother nation had been infringed upon, and they're looking to repay the favour. Of course, Kosovo will remain independent, but if the Georgians get to beat down the separatists in South-Ossetia the Russians will feel like it's 1-0 for the NATO, and that's not something they'll tolerate in these times of resurging Russian nationalism and bitterness about the conclusion of the Cold War.

At 8/8/08 05:51 PM, cellardoor6 wrote: If Russia just stops fighting after it effectively or seemingly got spanked by a much weaker country like Georgia, that would be too humiliating for them. They want it to look like they crushed "Georgian aggression".

You never know, this could turn into another Afghanistan for them.