At 7/10/08 07:27 PM, Gunter45 wrote:
That's just it, though. According to Russia's borders, they don't have a legit claim to any of it. Therefore getting any claim to the area would be more than they deserve.
I meant from the perspective of the American electorate. The Russian people and their government will feel that their claim to the wide central region of the Arctic is legit but when it comes down to a battle of wills the issue is whether the US government is willing to make a stand. If the US government decides to support the Canadians in not ceding their claim to the Arctic the best the Russians will be able to get out of the competition is a stalemate. I think the Pentagon will certainly be willing to flex a few muscles if necessary and I think they'll be able to convince any President to not let the Russians get away with seizing more than what the Pentagon feels they should get. I think a President could justify not budging to Russian power play to American voters who are sitting on the fence by appealing to Canadian sovereignty, taking away the last hindrance for the US administration to showing enough willpower to stop the Russians (fears of a political setback during the next elections).
We care enough about it to send the Secretary of State. That's a huge deal. If this wasn't something of note, you would hear about talks with ambassadors. We sent our chief ambassador over.
Like you say in the further part of your post, I think the only reason do to this is to show you mean business in advance and to thereby be able to say you were always concerned with Russian expansionism when they really violate a proverbial border. She transfers words and these words won't stop the Russians in this situation. They feel their words were ignored when Western governments recognised Kosovo's independence and they'll be keen on returning the favour. But the response is adequate in that sense. I think that the Russians can be allowed to take a certain amount of control over Abkhazia and South-Ossetia in a moral sense, and that they can still be stopped when they push it further at a later point in time.
It's not about Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Well, at every Russian step we should determine whether it's fair to let them get what they want or take more drastic steps. I don't think the Russians are really going too far in ther situation of Abkhazia and South-Ossetia so I think more far-reaching actions than deploying a high diplomat are not yet worth it. The future will tell us what Russia's next step will be but I think that when they really go overboard the US will have the determination to effectively call a halt to it. Let's say that the Russians start drilling in Canadian-claimed areas around the North Pole, then, if all else fails, the US could send gunships to block Russian oil tankers. A President would both have to be incredibly bad at Realpolitik to be unwilling to take actions that coerce the Russians into backing off and stubborn enough to not listen to advices of the Pentagon and former generals who probably do. I personally don't think that that will happen regardless of whether Obama or McCain gets elected, if it does it will be something to slap that president across the face with in the next elections and at the very least it'll give us an opportunity to argue what a weakling that President is on the BBS.