Everyday Cost (Election '08)

[TheMason]

1 July 2008

This is the date by which Hillary has to drop out of the race to avoid a tipping point in John McCain's favor.

How did I figure this? Well I went to Real Clear Politics and looked at the point early in the race when the difference between McCain & Obama was at it highest (6 Feb 08) and the most recent point where they were closest (4 May 08).

I then subtracted and divided to see just how much support Obama has lost per day since the Democratic primary has become so polarizing for the Dems. This number: Obama loses 0.02% everyday while McCain remains steady. So on 4 May there was a 1.8% gap. So if the gap keeps closing at 0.02% per day as the primary drags on...he will be even with McCain on or about 1 July.

So if Hillary keeps fighting over the next 55 days, she puts the Dem's November prospects at risk. If she were to go to the Convention in August she is doing McCain's work for him. If this trend keeps up, by the begining of the Convention Obama v McCain could be: 43.62% for Obama vs. 44.9% for McCain.

25 June 2008: A Rival Alternative Hypothesis
There is another way of doing the math. On 10 March 08 Obama hit a high on RCP's national average of 48% vs McCain. From 6 Feb-10 March his numbers were relatively flat so one could easily make the argument it is better to start with 10 March because that is when the campaign really got negative.

If you use this logic then each day of this campaign costs Obama 0.04% versus McCain. Therefore he and McCain are running neck and neck on or about 25 June 08. By the Convention McCain is leading 44.90% to Obama's 42.18%.

Thoughts?

[TheMason]

Conclusion (I should have included this above!)

Tonight Tim Russert on NBC Nightly News showed a chart that said Hillary needs 70-88% of the delegates (pledged & super) up for grabs between now and the convention. I do not think this is possible. Therefore I believe Obama has cinched the nomination.

So everyday this primary hurts Obama and reduces the gap between him and McCain by 0.02-0.04% per day. Therefore if Hillary does not drop out by between 25 June and 1 July, she has made a sure thing for the Democrats a horse race. Everyday beyond that she enlarges the McCain/Obama gap in McCain's favor by 0.02-0.04%.

Why am I seemingly reiterating my first post? Well, this was a hastily put together methodology and therefore I think that the reality is somewhere between my first hypothesis and my rival alternative way of figuring out how damaging (at this point) the Democratic primary is to their nominee.

And as a final caveat; this is barring something major happening between no and then. A stock market crash, terrorist attack could swing the gap in either candidate's favor.

[uhnoesanoob]

Plus, you have to take into account all the weapons she has left on the floor for the GOP to use against Obama. She has managed to make things stick to him, and likely the longer she stays the more dirt will be revealed about Obama.

[TheMason]

At 5/7/08 08:37 PM, uhnoesanoob wrote: Plus, you have to take into account all the weapons she has left on the floor for the GOP to use against Obama. She has managed to make things stick to him, and likely the longer she stays the more dirt will be revealed about Obama.

I think that's whats driving this reduction in the McCain/Obama gap. This isn't the Republicans doing this to the Democratic front runner...this is a fellow Dem. This is doubly good for McCain, he does not have to spend the time and money AND he gets to stand above the fray.

Furthermore, McCain isn't really getting attacked yet which is an important psychological advantage for him. He doesn't have the stress and pressure of having to defend himself so when he makes appearances the chances of making mistakes is decreased. This in turn makes his press positive, while the Dems throw mud at each other all the while polarizing their party.

[SmilezRoyale]

This is sort of off topic, but i beleive that the Mason has become, in 2008, the single most intelligent poster on this forum. He wields as much information about Cellar without his con descent or hubris.

as for everything you have said, i agree; although i do feel that if the Democrats want the optimal chance at winning the election they should give the nominee to hillary immediately; no offense obama, but hillary IS the more electable candidate.

This isn't to say that obama has no chance at beating mccain, but hillary's chance is better.

[TheMason]

While my gut reaction is that Hillary will drop out after the primaries are finally finished on 3 June, I wonder if the fatal blow to Obama hasn't already been struck. There now seems to be a deep rift in the party.

I also wonder if there isn't enough dirt floating around out there that McCain will be able to reap the benefits of a dirty campaign without him flinging mud.

This election very well may be decided by VP selection.

[JoS]

McCain has already pledged to run a clean campaign, no attack ads. And why would he need to do so? Obama and Clinton are slinging the mud at each other, while my man stands off to the side in his clean white suit. He doesn't have to spend any money to make his opponent look bad. If he really wants to capitalize on this mess, he could pick his VP to be either a woman or black (or both) depending on who loses (ie Clinton loses he picks a woman) to capitalized on marginalized voters.

I see VP in Rice's future.

[TheMason]

At 5/14/08 12:21 AM, JoS wrote: I see VP in Rice's future.

While I see Rice as an incredibly qualified candidate, I fear that she is too closely related in the public's mind with everything that is wrong w/Bush's foreign policiy.

I wonder if Halle Berry is a Republican?