2025

[TheMason]

US
Social security is strained under the pressure of the retirement of the baby boomer population and the fact that there are about two workers paying taxes to support four to five retired. This program is now taking up 45% of the federal budget alone. Medicare is taking up 30%. The minimum age to collect benefits is raised to somewhere between 75 & 80.

National defense spending is about pre-WWII levels and the US military is only effective as a deterence against invasion.

Healthcare is eventually nationalizied but the system is so economically tight that there are outages of healthcare and people are leaving the country to seek healthcare in Mexico and Canada.

The N. American Union attempts collapse because Mexico and Canada decide it is best to distance themselves from a failing economy that is struggling over the credit crunch and well-intended entitlement programs.

China
The 2015 collapse of N. Korea puts pressure on their economy as millions of refugee/migrant workers cross the border in search of a better life.

Their banking infrastructure never quite catches up to what is required by a free market economy...neither does their environmental enforcement.

Their public budget groans under the same pressure as the US' social security...too many pensioners and too few workers paying for it.

Political pressure mounts on the party so knowing the US can no longer deter military action, the PRC invades Taiwan.

The Taiwan adventure destabilizes the public economy and so they call in their bonds they purchased from the US...the American economy finally collapses taking the EU with it. China finds itself stuck with a devalued currency and hyper-inflation becomes endemic. The Communist party in Beijing finally falls.

The Rest of Asia
Following a slow and steady system of development that is largely funded by Western MNC (Multi-National Corporations) India survives the collapse of their competitors. Japan and Korea seek to soften the blow to their economies by attaching themselves to the Indian juggernaut.

Having followed a policy of non-alignment with Iran against the US pays off and India develops a close relationship that provides for their energy needs.
==========

Thus the American hegemon and epoch of Western dominance comes to an end as the East finds itself on the rise. We fall not to the Crouching Dragon, but to the Hidden Tiger...

[Tri-Nitro-Toluene]

At 2/17/08 04:46 AM, TheMason wrote: We fall not to the Crouching Dragon, but to the Hidden Tiger...

<groan>

That was a god awful pun = \

It does sound like a reasonable prediction though. Too much emphasis is aalced on China's future role. India IS where people should be placing bets on superpowerdom as they have, for the most part, all the advantages that China has, with fewer of the disadvantages.

[JudgeDredd]

At 2/17/08 04:46 AM, TheMason wrote: 17 years from now....

Personally, i don't forsee any of that happening. Who's predictions were they?

China for instance, has got just as much chance of doing a deal with US over Taiwan in exchange for retiring it's massive bond debt prior to defaulting on payments. The difference between China's economic structure and Taiwan's isn't what it used to be ideologically speaking, ie. Capitalism vs Communism.

[animehater]

Well that might hurt my hopes of becoming a multi-billionaire and launching a micronation project on the African coast now would it....

Mother fucker.

[The-Hydra-of-Spore]

Hope it comes true. My family owns a massive house in Goa in a perfect place It's market price has already sky rocketed and if this happened...

Well won't I be a lucky mother fucker? So long as nothing too bad happens in England.

[animehater]

At 2/17/08 12:06 PM, The-Hydra-of-Spore wrote: So long as nothing too bad happens in England.

The mother fucker just said that if the US goes down the rest of the western world will go with it.

[The-Hydra-of-Spore]

At 2/17/08 12:08 PM, animehater wrote:

At 2/17/08 12:06 PM, The-Hydra-of-Spore wrote: So long as nothing too bad happens in England.

The mother fucker just said that if the US goes down the rest of the western world will go with it.

Well fuck. Oh well. I have a little foreign gold mine and a few connections in India so I think if anything like this does happen I'll survive.

[Al6200]

At 2/17/08 04:46 AM, TheMason wrote:

Meh, I don't think most of this is going to happen, so I'm going to critique it. I still think it's a good prediction though, and I like how you separate "reduction in American hegemony" from "end of the world".

US
Social security is strained under the pressure of the retirement of the baby boomer population and :the fact that there are about two workers paying taxes to support four to five retired.

So... We fix social security by dramatically raising the retirement age. People are living longer, so they don't retire until their 70s. New medicine makes old age more livable, and the elderly find new and exciting work.

:This program is now taking up 45% of the federal budget alone. Medicare is taking up 30%. The :minimum age to collect benefits is raised to somewhere between 75 & 80.

Why does it cost so much if we're reducing the benefits to such a degree? Besides, can't people just do the unthinkable and get health insurance through their work?

Healthcare is eventually nationalizied but the system is so economically tight that there are outages :of healthcare and people are leaving the country to seek healthcare in Mexico and Canada.

lol. That's just insane.

China
The 2015 collapse of N. Korea puts pressure on their economy as millions of refugee/migrant workers cross the border in search of a better life.

Their banking infrastructure never quite catches up to what is required by a free market economy...neither does their environmental enforcement.

Their public budget groans under the same pressure as the US' social security...too many pensioners and too few workers paying for it.

Political pressure mounts on the party so knowing the US can no longer deter military action, the :PRC invades Taiwan.

I see a gradual re-integration as more likely. China becomes more open and democratic, Taiwan becomes more economically integrated. Over time, Taiwan accepts a one nation two systems policy, and later they just merge.

Also, the invasion of Taiwan would seem to me like a ploy to distract people from social issues on the mainland. In a modern, more open China, it doesn't seem like people would really fall for it, and if China got beat by the US navy, it would look really... really... bad.

The Taiwan adventure destabilizes the public economy and so they call in their bonds they :purchased from the US...the American economy finally collapses taking the EU with it. China finds :itself stuck with a devalued currency and hyper-inflation becomes endemic. The Communist party in :Beijing finally falls.

Meh, modern economies are more resilient than that. I don't see something like that taking down the economy or the entrenched political system in China.

Having followed a policy of non-alignment with Iran against the US pays off and India develops a close :relationship that provides for their energy needs.

That's reasonable. I have a feeling that the US will accept nuclear fission and electric cars by that point though.

I'll post my alternative vision in a sec (or whenever I feel like it).

[Al6200]

My Vision: 2025

2009:

Barack Obama fixes social security and makes the budget balanced. The Republicans and the Democrats join together to sing songs about how perfect the universe is. The world looks exactly like the Barack Obama logo, with all of the world's ills and problems instantly solved.

2010:

Star Trek XI is released. It is the greatest movie ever created. However, with a young generation of teenage boys giving up fun and dating in favor of calculating the yield of the Enterprise and proving that a planet can be destroyed without using any energy. The birth rate drops to zero for the first time in human history.

2060:

Trekkie physicists succeed in finding a grand unified theory, and discover that the entire universe is made up of tiny vibrating balls. They find an obscure minutiae in this theory, proving that the Enterprise could destroy the Death Star. The world rejoices in this great discovery.

2061:

World realizes that while everyone was studying the minutae of Star Trek, people forgot to have kids and the Earth's entire female population is now too old to bear youth

2062:

Trekkie discovers time travel and uses it to go back in the 1960s to prevent Star Trek from being created, in an attempt to save the future. However the team is corrupted by William Shatner's irresistible charm and decides to instead stop Star Trek from being canceled

2025:

Due to the time travel, everyone in the world dies in 2025.

[TheMason]

At 2/17/08 06:06 AM, JudgeDredd wrote:

At 2/17/08 04:46 AM, TheMason wrote: 17 years from now....

Personally, i don't forsee any of that happening. Who's predictions were they?

It's my own. I've been looking into India and China for awhile now and with the '08 election coming up I'm looking at our own economy. For example, the part about Chinese pensioners is expected to become a problem around 2025.

China for instance, has got just as much chance of doing a deal with US over Taiwan in exchange for retiring it's massive bond debt prior to defaulting on payments.

I can only hope you're right...

[TheMason]

At 2/17/08 12:50 PM, Al6200 wrote:

At 2/17/08 04:46 AM, TheMason wrote:

:: So... We fix social security by dramatically raising the retirement age. People are living longer, so they don't retire until their 70s. New medicine makes old age more livable, and the elderly find new and exciting work.

Problem is the AARP will block any kind of real Social Security reform until it is too late. Look up the term: "third rail of American politics". Clinton, Bush, Obama...doesn't matter who's living at 1600 Penn Ave, real Social Security reform will not happen until the system is too far gone.

Why does it cost so much if we're reducing the benefits to such a degree? Besides, can't people just do the unthinkable and get health insurance through their work?

The reduction in benefits will probably come as a last ditch effort to keep the system afloat. Furthermore, there will be too many retirees still getting benefits under the old rules and since they are retired...there is no work for them to get health insurance through.

Healthcare is eventually nationalizied but the system is so economically tight that there are outages :of healthcare and people are leaving the country to seek healthcare in Mexico and Canada.

lol. That's just insane.

I said that tongue in cheek. However, we are seeing people going to India to get surgeries US health insurance companies will not cover. So if the economy is going down and Canada is doing better...I see Americans going North for treatment and South for pills.

Their public budget groans under the same pressure as the US' social security...too : I see a gradual re-integration as more likely. China becomes more open and democratic, Taiwan becomes more economically integrated. Over time, Taiwan accepts a one nation two systems policy, and later they just merge.

The Chinese leaders are resisting any real political reforms.

Also, the invasion of Taiwan would seem to me like a ploy to distract people from social issues on the mainland. In a modern, more open China, it doesn't seem like people would really fall for it, and if China got beat by the US navy, it would look really... really... bad.

First of all under the scenario the US military is no longer a danger to the PLAN...

Also this is how the Chinese leadership operates on a daily basis. They act irrationally in the international arena to distract at home...

Meh, modern economies are more resilient than that. I don't see something like that taking down the economy or the entrenched political system in China.

Pride goeth before the fall...

Having followed a policy of non-alignment with Iran against the US pays off and India develops a close :relationship that provides for their energy needs.

That's reasonable. I have a feeling that the US will accept nuclear fission and electric cars by that point though.

Ummm...it pays off for India instead of the US.

[RadioactiveRabbit]

I doubt the US government would allow that to happen, especially how slow it would have to be.

You really think the government would practically bankrupt itself instead of revising it's government pension policies?

And there is probably going to be a higher-income population contributing more to taxes in the US's future.

[Al6200]

At 2/17/08 01:46 PM, TheMason wrote:

Problem is the AARP will block any kind of real Social Security reform until it is too late. Look up the :term: "third rail of American politics". Clinton, Bush, Obama...doesn't matter who's living at 1600 Penn :Ave, real Social Security reform will not happen until the system is too far gone.

I don't see why it matters (to be frank). Even in the worst case scenario, where social security is completely gone, I don't see that big of an issue. Elderly people will just have to find jobs like everyone else. The very, very elderly will just have to move back in with their children to get the care they need. It won't be easy, but it will hardly be an end of the world scenario.

Besides, I think that the situation for the elderly will improve. New medicine will make conditions like arthritis more workable, and the labor of the modern world might make it possible for the elderly to work in e-commerce/web design/ IT related stuff where a daily commute isn't necessary.

The problem with your scenario is you're seeing new problems, and you're assuming we won't change to adapt to those problems. Sure, it will be tough without social security, but humans are tough and resilient, and they will adapt.

The reduction in benefits will probably come as a last ditch effort to keep the system afloat.

Well, yeah. But let me just say that retirement is over-rated. Humans thrive on work and challenges. Of all the elderly people I know, the happiest are the ones that can find enjoyable and laid back work rather than the ones that retire and end up doing nothing.

With exceptions for those with a few chronic diseases (which will hopefully be reduced my modern medicine), there will be lots of challenging and exciting work.

:Furthermore, there will be too many retirees still getting benefits under the old rules and since they :are retired...there is no work for them to get health insurance through.

There's lots of work for those who are creative and willing to work hard.

I said that tongue in cheek. However, we are seeing people going to India to get surgeries US health :insurance companies will not cover. So if the economy is going down and Canada is doing better...I :see Americans going North for treatment and South for pills.

Nah... I know people from Canada, and let's just say it's not all it's cracked up to be. Sure, everyone is covered, but there are wait lists for all of the major procedures.

First of all under the scenario the US military is no longer a danger to the PLAN...

I'd be amazed to see the PLAN catch up to the US navy in 17 years. I mean, they're pretty far behind today.

Ummm...it pays off for India instead of the US.

My point is that oil won't be the life/death resource it was in the past.

[JudgeDredd]

At 2/17/08 04:46 AM, TheMason wrote:

17 years from now...

It's my own. I've been looking into India and China for awhile now..

Well sure, the advancing aging problem is looming on the horizon for most countries, but as a techie (not solely a dreaming TREKKIE like Al6200 ;O) ..there's one thing not be overlooked; namely robots.

Yeah I know, guys like me have been trumpetting the coming "Cambrian Explosion" for as many years as computers have been affordable, but honestly, their time will come. Honda for instance, when they first demo'd their prototype Asimo robot, they were quick to explain that although they had a good basic mechanical droid, they still expected that as far as hardware and software for artificial intelligence was concerned, that would still be at least another 10 years away. That was back in 2000.

Remember, Honda is not some small "investment" prototyping company. They are perhaps better placed for mass-production of high-end robots than anyone, having been a leader in high-end motorbikes for decades. If we say 5 more years to Honda's own large-scale production run, then another 5 for Japanese backed Chinese companies to ramping up for cost efficiencies and diverse designs, then we've still got another 5 years back-filling demand (say 15 years total).

During these 15 years the software/hardware side will go ballistic. And even if the artificial intelligence isn't quite up to independant labouring duties, then all those elderly folk (old bodies, young minds) will have a fit and strong buddy doing their labouring by supervised instruction. And those that can work independantly will do 3 shifts for every 1 human.

While labouring will continue to be outsourced to China and the like for decades without exhausting those populous', supervising robots should become a boon industry for the elderly job market, which will be sufficient to satisfy most localized labouring shortages.

.

[DeathAura]

At 2/17/08 04:46 AM, TheMason wrote:

We fall not to the Crouching Dragon, but to the Hidden Tiger...

Yep, you summed it up.

[RommelTJ]

At 2/17/08 04:46 AM, TheMason wrote: US
Social security is strained under the pressure of the retirement of the baby boomer population and the fact that there are about two workers paying taxes to support four to five retired. This program is now taking up 45% of the federal budget alone. Medicare is taking up 30%. The minimum age to collect benefits is raised to somewhere between 75 & 80.

This is the only part I disagree. We can fix this by giving immigrants legal status and making them pay taxes.

Oh boy, here comes the bashing again.....

By the way Mason, have you played the game Fallout? This would be great in a game like that. Can you make this into a flash game? Maybe a pick-your-own-destiny-book kinda game? It shouldn't be that hard to make.

Anyone up for it? Can I try it?

[TheMason]

At 2/18/08 12:11 PM, RommelTJ wrote: This is the only part I disagree. We can fix this by giving immigrants legal status and making them pay taxes.

Oh boy, here comes the bashing again.....

I disagree...that would only add beneficiaries which only puts the problem off a little while longer...which is how we got such a broken program in the first place...

By the way Mason, have you played the game Fallout? This would be great in a game like that. Can you make this into a flash game?...

Anyone up for it? Can I try it?

Sure...do you mind giving me storyline credit? (I'm not skilled at flash.)