(Note: 3rd attempt to post this damned thing from the errors I keep getting. Hopefully, I'm not multi-posting)
As of now, you need approximately 900 to make it. In the time it take you to get that though, it's entirely possible for stafffighter and others to raise the bar by pushing mike777 to 50. He's been inactive most of the last week, and the days he does vote have been only for a handful of BPs. Count on needing to pass him to get on and stay and and you won't be too far off the mark.
I'm providing this formula for the people who aren't within spitting distance of the 50, but it may be appropriate for you as well since staff is probably going to get their before you.
Bt = total BPs of the person ranked 50
Yb = your total BPs
Ya = your average per day
Ba = average increase of the number 50 (not the one currently there, average increase in the bar at 50) per day
D = days to top 50
The easy formula:
If Ya - Ba < 0 Your pace is such that the 50 rank will continue to pull away.
The hard one:
D = (Bt-Yb)/Ya + [(Ba(Bt-Yb)/Ya^2]
You will take however many days to get to the point at which they are NOW. The latter part of that is what most people forget. The 50 rank is moving too. How many days will it take you to compensate for that increase (+how many it will take you to compensate for that compensation + etc.)
A simpler way to look at it is to take the main part of that :
(Bt-Yb)/Ya = X
Now it looks like this:
D = X + ((X * Ba)/Ya)
Since February, including the times when the Bt hasn't really moved and the times when it has gone up a lot, the Ba is 15.55. Presume you have 2k BPs and average 50 a day
D = (5549-2000)/50 + [(15.55(5549-2000)/50*50)]
D = 70.98 + ((70.98 * 15.55)/50)
D = 93.05 days
All you need to figure out at this point is what your average is and punch in the numbers.