Will North Korea Start A War?

[GeneralFox7]

I was wondering if any of you think that we will get in a war with Korea because they have tested some of their missiles. Or do you think that they just want attention?

[JakeHero]

No. I don't think North Korea has any delusions of grandeur. I could be wrong, but I think Kim Dong Mentally-il was only talking shit so he could feel like he was one of the big boys playing with nukes. The nuclear weapon he did produce was small in yield, and another poster said awhile back "A mini-nuke for a mini-dictator."

[SmilezRoyale]

It's people like Kim that spread the hatred of one nation over another, Start wars in the present and lay a foundation for the devestation of economies, culture, and diplomacy, as well as the good chance of creating future wars due to the effects of the ones created initially.

Ex: What adolf hitler is in some respects connected to Isreal Vs. The middle east and the hezbollah, When one man's anger clouds his judgement, and his balls are bigger than his brain, people die.

Lucky for us, Koreas nuclear testing was asumed to be a failure, though this could be a cover up, as the siesmic energy created from one of the nuclear tests was very weak.

[TheMason]

At 6/7/07 03:59 PM, GeneralFox7 wrote: I was wondering if any of you think that we will get in a war with Korea because they have tested some of their missiles. Or do you think that they just want attention?

Military part of your question.
1) Just because the DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea or N. Korea) launches some of its missiles does not stir up a hornet's nest and push the US and ROK (Republic of Korea or S. Korea) military towards a war posture. We do pay attention and track the missiles to make sure that they are not going to hit the ROK, Japan or Hawaii. If it appears like the missile is going to hit a friendly target we prepare our anti-missile defense systems and would shoot it down. However, that would not mean we're going to war. We would assume a defensive wait and see posture.

2) You have to remember that we are still at war with the DPRK. The Korean War was never ended with a treaty but the fighting stopped because of an armistice. Now for those who do not know; a treaty ENDS war while an armistice merely CEASES hostilities. Now ROK and US forces maintain a more 'ready' posture than stateside units do, however the South's economy and society is postured towards a peacetime thinking. Their industry is fully developed towards producing consumer goods rather than military goods and the government is now a democracy; rather than the military dictatorship it was until about 1991/2.

HOWEVER, the DPRK remains totally oriented towards a war posture. They teach their citizens that they are still at war with the South and an imperialistic US and that the North must be prepared to free their Southern brothers from the yoke of the US. Furthermore, even while they still suffer from the effects of a terrible famine the people are told that they have it BETTER in the DPRK than people not only in the ROK but the US. And the people believe it. However, they do understand that their suffering is at least made worse by this war footing and actually WANT war. They believe that even if their lives are not made better once Korea is re-unified under Pyongyang...it is better to die in war than die of hunger.

So there is a fear that if there is a coup or Kim dies...the new government may actually (believing the old propaganda) start a war.

International Politics
Now, there is a thought that Kim Jong-Il is not the nut that he is protrayed as...IE: he does NOT behaving irrationally. (This is the theory I proscribe to.) Rather he knows how to play the world community and get attention by testing missiles, re-starting his nuke program and testing warheads. When he doesn't get what he wants (even though he may not have done what he promised) he does something to stir the pot. This forces the US and others in the region to return to the bargaining table with a more attentive ear...

[TheMason]

At 6/7/07 04:59 PM, JakeHero wrote: No. I don't think North Korea has any delusions of grandeur. I could be wrong, but I think Kim Dong Mentally-il was only talking shit so he could feel like he was one of the big boys playing with nukes. The nuclear weapon he did produce was small in yield, and another poster said awhile back "A mini-nuke for a mini-dictator."

At 6/7/07 05:06 PM, SmilezRoyale wrote: It's people like Kim that spread the hatred of one nation over another, Start wars in the present and lay a foundation for the devestation of economies, culture, and diplomacy, as well as the good chance of creating future wars due to the effects of the ones created initially.

There is a danger in marginalizing/labeling Kim Jong-Il as a mentally ill madman. More recent intel indicates that he is actually very rational and clear thinking. What you have to remember is that nations do act in accordance with their own interests...however there is not a universal national self-interest...but these vary from region-to-region and country-to-country.

Ex: What adolf hitler is in some respects connected to Isreal Vs. The middle east and the hezbollah, When one man's anger clouds his judgement, and his balls are bigger than his brain, people die.

Again, this is not about Kim's hatred or a preoccupation with his balls. But, like you have pointed out, the current problems in Korea is rooted in history and not just present day problems. The Korean war never ended. Before that the Korean war was started by the division of the country along early Cold War tensions following the defeat of Japan in WWII. The reason Korea became an issue after WWII was because in 1910 Japan officially claimed that Korea was its colony and started a 3-4 decade campaign of destroying Korean unity and culture. In fact you can take the disunion of Korea further back than you can take the divisions in the Holy Land of the Middle East...

Lucky for us, Koreas nuclear testing was asumed to be a failure, though this could be a cover up, as the siesmic energy created from one of the nuclear tests was very weak.

I wouldn't be too celabratory. His next test could be of a very powerful warhead. Furthermore, he has the #1 or #2 biological warfare program in the World (depending upon whether or not the Russians have slipped in the rankings)...

[gijfef]

i really doubt they will try anything to be honest. a distinct lack of allies is a big problem. i hear that even china is pissed off with them :)

[ultrabitch]

Much as North Korea hates the west, they know they would be smashed if they tried for a war, especially a nuclear war.

The nukes they tested were mostly to say "Look at how big we are!" and "We can fight back if America tries anything!" A little swagger. But they're not suicidal.

[UWDarDar17]

At 6/7/07 05:42 PM, gijfef wrote: i really doubt they will try anything to be honest. a distinct lack of allies is a big problem. i hear that even china is pissed off with them :)

Yeah. You can imagine that when China and the US are trying to work out trade agreements, and then North Korea goes and does something stupid like test a nuke or threaten to launch a missle, China gets a little upset. Since China supplies a lot of shit to DPRK, like food and medical supplies, and Kim Jong-il's DVDs, them threatening to cut off those supplies is usually enough to keep North Korea in line. That and a million man army.

North Korea is your nude neighbor mowing the lawn while China is having a garden party with the US, Europe, and Sudan as guests. It's a fly in the ointment.

[slackerzac]

I think it would be foolish on Kim Jong Il's part to declare war or attack anyone because that whole sease fire treaty from 1953 will become null in void and we can go back and finish the job properly and kick that migit of a dictator in the balls and be done with him. Ofcourse if we did do that we would probly have to kill most of the population of N. Korea. Not to be cruel but Kim has brianwashed the people to the point where he is a god of somesort. And if you watched the National Geographic cannel you know what Im talking about

[SmackBang]

Not happening without China, Its the only reason the Korean war started, because China helped greatly and even then massive casualties were sustained. The original Korean war was also a test from China to scale America's arms and for Mao Zedong (at the time) for China to become a military superpower.

[AapoJoki]

I think the reason countries like Iran and North Korea are eager to build nukes, is because they believe that having them will give them a lot more ground when negotiating diplomatically about anything whatsoever, basically. I don't think that actually using nuclear weapons in the interests of any nation, no matter how extreme, totalitarian or power-hungry its leader is. There is simply no one in the world who could benefit from a nuclear war. As much as these leaders are against freedom and democracy, I doubt any of them would like to see the entire human race perish.

[HighlyIllogical]

China isn't so big in favor of Kim, so, no. There's not going to be a war of any significance – even though we've been at war since the beginning of the Korean War, for, as it has been mentioned, the war hasn't technically ended.

If there was a war, Kim's forces would try to barrel through ROK and US units, but would be stopped, probably a bit south of the 38th in the worst case besides a nuclear scenario.

[TheMason]

At 6/8/07 03:58 PM, SmackBang wrote: Not happening without China, Its the only reason the Korean war started, because China helped greatly and even then massive casualties were sustained.

Not really, no. The Korean War started because Kim Il-Sung (the Chonger's father) wanted to unify Korea under his fuedal-communist (or communist-fuedal...neither American or Chinese scholars on Korea can decide which should go first) ideal of Juche (extreme self-reliance on a national scale). And so he invaded S. Korea, telling his people that the NKPA had repelled an Imperialistic American invasion of the North. He did so without the blessing of either Stalin or Mao.

However, it is important to note that at the start of the war the DPRK had a MUCH better equipped military than China. China was fighting with a variety of small arms ranging from Japanese, American, European to Soviet. In 1950 they were just getting back on their feet from WWII and their war with the Nationalists (Taiwan), while the USSR had pumped a lot of time, money and military resources into the Pyongyang regime.

[SM42]

They might, but it's not too likely. They lack allies, while the U.S. has plenty. On the other hand, the U.S. is going to have a weak military after the Iraqi war (If it ever fucking ends) for a short time, so they might attack them.

[maltesebaron]

I personally think North Korea is all talk and no show without China. Although anything could happen. It is very dangerous when Kim Jong Il and his advisors start believing their own propoganda.

[ZombieSlayer54]

They just want attention.

[2wiceBorn]

At 6/10/07 02:01 PM, SM42 wrote: They might, but it's not too likely. They lack allies, while the U.S. has plenty. On the other hand, the U.S. is going to have a weak military after the Iraqi war (If it ever fucking ends) for a short time, so they might attack them.

No it won't. The Allies in Iraq ( and especially America) can afford the Iraq war easily.