This year may be the warmest ever

[patriotextremeist]

I found this on AOL news. It seems that 2007 will be the warmest year ever.
The link doesn't work for everyone... but I'll provide it anyway:
http://articles.news.aol.com/news/_a/this-yea r-may-be-warmest-ever/20070104074409990001?nc id=NWS00010000000001
In the article:
LONDON (Jan. 4) - A resurgent El Nino and persistently high levels of greenhouse gases are likely to make 2007 the world's hottest year ever recorded, British climate scientists said Thursday.

Britain's Meteorological Office said there was a 60 percent probability that 2007 would break the record set by 1998, which was 1.20 degrees over the long-term average.

"This new information represents another warning that climate change is happening around the world," the office said.

The reason for the forecast is mostly due to El Nino, a cyclical warming trend now under way in the Pacific Ocean. The event occurs irregularly - the last one happened in 2002 - and typically leads to increased temperatures worldwide.

While this year's El Nino is not as strong as it was in 1997 and 1998, its combination with the steady increase of temperatures due to global warming from human activity may be enough to break the Earth's temperature record, said Phil Jones, the director of the Climatic Research unit at the University of East Anglia.

"Because of the warming due to greenhouse gases, even a moderate warming event is enough to push the global temperatures over the top," he said.

"El Nino is an independent variable," he said. "But the underlying trends in the warming of the Earth is almost certainly due to the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."

El Nino can sometimes lead to milder weather, such as in the in the northeastern United States or the Atlantic Ocean, which is likely to see fewer hurricanes this year. However, it can also increase the severity of weather-related disasters, such as typhoons in the Philippines or drought in southern Africa and Australia, a country that is already suffering through its longest dry spell on record.

Environmental groups said the report added weight to the movement to control greenhouse gases.

"The evidence that we're doing something very dangerous with the climate is now amassing," said Campaign against Climate Change coordinator Philip Thornhill.

"We need to put the energy and priority (into climate change) that is being put into a war effort. It's a political struggle to get action done - and these reports help," Thornhill said.

Discuss. Is global warming behind all this?

[TehChahlesh]

I will restate what I have said many times before:

GLobal Warming desribes a 0.6 degrees Celsius rise in temperature over the past century.

No melting ice-caps. No doomsday. No "warmest year ever"

[patriotextremeist]

Hey. It's 20 degrees above normal temperature in New Jersey. What are we going to blame? Global warming. Meterologists are saying that there is a 62% chance that it will NOT snow in New Jersey this year. I live in Cherry Hill. We normally get a few feet and inches of snow every year. It would normally snow right now. But guess what? It is 60 fuckin' degrees and not even a single flake of snow fell whatsoever. So you see... global warming is real and it is happening RIGHT NOW. 'Nuff said.

[SolInvictus]

At 1/4/07 04:46 PM, patriotextremeist wrote: Hey. It's 20 degrees above normal temperature in New Jersey.

and its one degree above the record high of 1915. whats your point, freak weather happens.

i have no idea if the record was set at that time, i'm simply stating that other heat records have been set prior to all this global warming stuff, way prior.

[Begoner]

and its one degree above the record high of 1915. whats your point, freak weather happens.

The 10 hottest years on record have all been since 1994. All those who deny global warming and its effects must be utterly blind or idiotic to an astounding degree.

[Memorize]

Dont' they say this every year?

[SolInvictus]

At 1/4/07 04:58 PM, Begoner wrote: The 10 hottest years on record have all been since 1994. All those who deny global warming and its effects must be utterly blind or idiotic to an astounding degree.

i'm not denying global warming i'm just hoping some people will realise that arguing something requires more than just "omgz its so warm!!!".

[Memorize]

At 1/4/07 04:58 PM, Begoner wrote:

The 10 hottest years on record have all been since 1994. All those who deny global warming and its effects must be utterly blind or idiotic to an astounding degree.

40 years ago, they said it would be 10 years until it was all over. And so on til today when they've changed their tactics to 30-100 years and it's all over (at least they adjusting their dates).

Considering the earth has had warmer temperatures way before (and multiple times) in the past, care to explain how this is caused by people?

[Begoner]

At 1/4/07 05:01 PM, Techware wrote: Considering the earth has had warmer temperatures way before (and multiple times) in the past, care to explain how this is caused by people?

When? There have been single days when it was hotter than a given day right now, certainly. However, the past decade has been the hottest on record. Of the top 10 hottest years, all of them have been since 1994. If you do not understand the concept of greenhouse gases, then you need to read the Wikipedia article. If you do not understand how human-made devices emit greenhouse gases, then there's something seriously wrong with you. If you do understand both of these, then you'll know how global warming is caused by mankind.

[Begoner]

At 1/4/07 04:59 PM, SolInvictus wrote: i'm not denying global warming i'm just hoping some people will realise that arguing something requires more than just "omgz its so warm!!!".

The unusually warm weather is not a terrible effect of global warming, but an undendiable symptom of it. Is the world going to end because it isn't snowing in New Jersey? Of course not. Are billions of people going to die in the future because of this man-made catastrophe? If we don't do something about it, yes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#E xpected_effects

[Tomsan]

At 1/4/07 04:59 PM, Techware wrote: Dont' they say this every year?

YES THEY DO!

[SolInvictus]

At 1/4/07 05:24 PM, Begoner wrote: Are billions of people going to die in the future because of this man-made catastrophe? If we don't do something about it, yes.

i love man's arrogance when he assumes that he alone has caused planetary weather to change.

[Begoner]

At 1/4/07 05:51 PM, SolInvictus wrote: i love man's arrogance when he assumes that he alone has caused planetary weather to change.

Right, because cold, hard, scientific fact is "arrogance." I love your arrogance when you assume that you know more than climatologists with doctorates in the science. It's not an assumption: it's scientific fact. Don't act like you're retarded, because you're not.

[SolInvictus]

its a fact the weather is changing, other than that everyone has their own hypothesis.

[Begoner]

At 1/4/07 05:55 PM, SolInvictus wrote: its a fact the weather is changing, other than that everyone has their own hypothesis.

Joe down the street might think it's a government conspiracy and your friend Bob might think that it's the work of aliens. The scientific community, however, is cognizant of the fact that greenhouse gases are the driving force behind the recent climate change.

[SolInvictus]

At 1/4/07 05:59 PM, Begoner wrote: The scientific community, however, is cognizant of the fact that greenhouse gases are the driving force behind the recent climate change.

the scientific community implies that there is more than one person and when there is more then one person there is generally more than one explanation.

[ReiperX]

This year's mild winter is caused by the El Nino <hey Fli whats the Ascii code for the enya <sp>>

They were predicting this in the early summer. Does global warming exist? I definately think so. Is this winter a direct effect of global warming? I highly doubt it.

[TheMason]

At 1/4/07 05:54 PM, Begoner wrote: Right, because cold, hard, scientific fact is "arrogance." I love your arrogance when you assume that you know more than climatologists with doctorates in the science. It's not an assumption: it's scientific fact. Don't act like you're retarded, because you're not.

Here in Missouri we had a major snow and ice storm about three weeks ago. In Colorado they have been hit by what, two blizzards already? Nice Jersey-centric reasoning...

Michael Crichton wrote a book about two years ago called State of Fear where he analyzed the environmentalist movement through fiction. Having started the project an environmentalist and scientist (Crichton has his MD), his research into how off target the 'science' of environmentalists and climatologists has proven to be. Crichton even cites the scientific studies as proof of his hypothesis that environmentalism is highly politicizied and overrated. In fact many predictions made in 1974-75 have been proven wrong by factors of up to 300%.

Furthermore, climatology and environmentalism is not perfect or exact sciences. Their conclusions are not able to be tested, reproducable or verifiable by other scientists.

For example, much of the data used to track the historic trends of weather patterns in non-Western patterns is only reliable a couple of decades back. Western sources aren't much more better since they are only reliable maybe a century back. Therefore, there are serious flaws with the notion that global warming has been happening over the course of the last 400 years.

Also the technology to measure the effects of global warming is only a few decades old and so our body of 'evidence' is not significant enough to prove that global warming is in fact real or man-made.

I have heard such doom and gloom predictions every year since I was a freshman in high school (1988) and they have yet to come true. In fact in 2005 the national weather service and hurricane center predicted that 2006 would be the year of 'the killer hurricanes' in the US. Hmmm...wasn't hurricane season pretty light this year? Yet another 'scientific' prediction made on 'scientific' 'fact' falls flat. Rational thinkers: 18, Environmental 'scientists': 0.

As for 2007 being the warmest year on record who knows? Maybe a butterfly in China won't flap it's wings and Jersey will be covered by a blizzard from October 07 to February 08...

[Peter-II]

At 1/4/07 04:37 PM, TehChahlesh wrote: GLobal Warming desribes a 0.6 degrees Celsius rise in temperature over the past century.

Hahaha, oh dear...the average global temperature doesn't really give an accurate picture of the whole of global warming. There are regional variations. For instance, during major ice ages the average global temperature was only about 5-10 degrees Celsius, for instance, yet during them the earth was completely covered in snow and ice.

No melting ice-caps. No doomsday. No "warmest year ever"

The icecaps have already started melting, and 2006 I believe was the warmest year since sometime in the 17th century. Hardly anyone is claiming that global warming will be the cause of a doomsday, though if it continues at the rate it's doing now, there will definitely some changes to people's lifestyles.

Considering the earth has had warmer temperatures way before (and multiple times) in the past, care to explain how this is caused by people?

Incorrect. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_reco rd_of_the_past_1000_years

[Imperator]

Yes! Another thread dominated by Begoner's Appeal to Emotion type arguments (and logical fallacies)!! Just what '07 needed to kick it off!!

I have the solution however. All we really need is a 2 billion person genocide!!

Think about it. Over the past 300 years, the world population has expanded by leaps and bounds. Temperature change has shown a positive correlation to this!

It makes PERFECT sense. It's not people causing the problem; people ARE the problem!

The body generates heat, and the more people there are, the more heat is generated. Any time you've been in a room with a large number of people (say, a dance club, party, etc), you know that a room can heat up very quickly through pure body heat.

So the solution is so so simple; start eliminating people to cool the Earth down!

I say we start with China and India, since they have the most people. Then we move on to the US and other densly populated countries. Start with the poorest people who don't contribute to society anyways, and move up the social ladder as needed.

That or maybe we need WWIII so we can eliminate 25% of the world's population that way! And y'all Anti-War nuts thought Bush didn't care about the environment.....forshame.....

[Begoner]

At 1/4/07 06:48 PM, Imperator wrote: Yes! Another thread dominated by Begoner's Appeal to Emotion type arguments (and logical fallacies)!! Just what '07 needed to kick it off!!

Ah, yes, since obviously objective judgments can be made without adding emotion into the equation. Genocide? Billions of deaths? Who cares? If we take those into consideration, we would be calling the logical fallacy of an appeal to pity upon ourselves!

Global warming is a fact. That the process is largely driven by greenhouse emissions is another fact. That it has the potential to devastate mankind is a fact, propaganda books by Michael Crichton and 30-year-old errors notwithstanding. Is the scientific community strongly behind this hypothesis that humans are the main cause of global warming? Yes. In 2004, of 978 refereed articles in the ISI database with the keywords "global climate change," not a single one of them accepted any other theory for global warming. The only point on which the scientific community differs are the possible effects of global warming and how soon they will happen, as this is a largely variable prediction that depends on how quickly we clean up our act and listen to reason (obviously, events such as Bush's elections hasten the process -- for all his numerous shortcomings, at least Gore is knowledgeable about global warming). However, it is pretty well-known that the following are inextricably linked to global warming and will pose a significant danger to mankind in the future. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that a 5 degree Celsius rise in temperatures will be devastating for humanity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_globa l_warming

[poxpower]

And the big question on everyone mind: What the FUCK could you possibly gain by pretending we're not the cause of global warming???

We still know that what we're doing is bad for the environment. We KNOW it. Should we just wait another 100 years to be ABSOLUTELY SURE and then go "well I guess it WAS us after all! haha peniscake! We're going to fry for this one!"

Oh wait no, it's all a CONSPIRACY by the EVIL er... non-oil guys... who want to ... sell.. hum..
What are they selling again? Who has to gain from this "global warming scare"???

And what the hell, citing Michael nooneknowshowtopronoucemyname Ckhrichthon as a source for global warming studies? Haha maaaaaaaan.

[Peter-II]

At 1/4/07 06:22 PM, Peter-II wrote: For instance, during major ice ages the average global temperature was only about 5-10 degrees Celsius, for instance, yet during them the earth was completely covered in snow and ice.

Waitwaitwait, that was a typo. I meant that it was only about 5-10 degrees Celsius different to how it is today.

[Begoner]

At 1/4/07 07:19 PM, poxpower wrote: And the big question on everyone mind: What the FUCK could you possibly gain by pretending we're not the cause of global warming???

The ability to troll on the inter-webs and giggle like a little schoolgirl after seeing all the angry responses?

[Imperator]

Ah, yes, since obviously objective judgments can be made without adding emotion into the equation

Yes, yes they can. That's how they become "objective".....

In 2004, of 978 refereed articles in the ISI database with the keywords "global climate change," not a single one of them accepted any other theory for global warming.

And 500 years ago the scientific community was of the consensus that the Earth was flat. What's your point?

at least Gore is knowledgeable about global warming).

If Gore is your Light to the World/ Savior I'm gonna volunteer to go to Iraq to be used as cannon fodder......

[Memorize]

At 1/4/07 05:23 PM, Begoner wrote:

When? There have been single days when it was hotter than a given day right now, certainly.

No need to make a huge, enormous paragraph.

Anyway, my point is this. I live in Arizona, and around this time of year it can range anywhere from 20-80 degrees F. What does a temperature or two do to me, especially when the temperature now is that of what it was a few hundred years ago and a few hundred years before and so on?

[Begoner]

At 1/4/07 07:34 PM, Imperator wrote: Yes, yes they can. That's how they become "objective".....

No, without emotion, there is no basis upon which to create our arguments. Without any emotion, what's to stop us from killing every single person on the planet? We perceive an action to be either good or bad through our emotions. Therefore, our decisions must be predicated upon a strong emotional sense and must be constructed so as to have a net positive effect on mankind.

And 500 years ago the scientific community was of the consensus that the Earth was flat.

I'm not going to bother responding to that straw-man.

If Gore is your Light to the World/ Savior I'm gonna volunteer to go to Iraq to be used as cannon fodder......

No, I dislike Gore. That doesn't mean I don't think he's knowledgeable about global warming. I also dislike Bush. That doesn't mean I don't think he's physically fit for a man his age.

[Sigma-Lambda]

At 1/4/07 07:34 PM, Imperator wrote: If Gore is your Light to the World/ Savior I'm gonna volunteer to go to Iraq to be used as cannon fodder......

He just said he thinks Gore knows a lot about global warming. He never said anything to even imply that he thought what you're saying.

[MortifiedPenguins]

Seriously, who cares.

Even if it's true, man isn't going to change for it.

May as well just get used to the warm weather.

I for one, will stock up on suntan loiton.

It's futile to even try to change our economy or the world energy.

[TheMason]

At 1/4/07 07:05 PM, Begoner wrote: Global warming is a fact. That the process is largely driven by greenhouse emissions is another fact. That it has the potential to devastate mankind is a fact, propaganda books by Michael Crichton and 30-year-old errors notwithstanding. ... for all his numerous shortcomings, at least Gore is knowledgeable about global warming).

Wow...way to deal with what I said head on and disprove what I said.

So Crichton wrote a propaganda book? A scientist who was an ardent environmentalist when he began the research for the book? Let me guess the logic goes something like this:

a) If a scientist does not agree with the consensus on the environment; he is a propagandist.
b) Crichton after researching global warming and environmental science came to the conclusion that it was a very flawed theory and did not provide a rational explanation of climatological and geological phenomenon.
c) THEREFORE, Crichton disagrees and is thus a propagandist and sell-out.

Basically what you're saying is that any scientist that doesn't agree with the 'consensus', does not have anything legitimate to say. Wow...that is very dogmatic of you! Sounds more like a religion/cult than a science. I think environmentalists will become the modern age's equivalent of the Spanish Inquisitors.

Gore? You call a REAL scientist a propagandist and then talk up a politician? Wow...just wow.

No wonder you didn't deal with my post head on; Gore's 'facts' wouldn't stand up to the scrutiny of Crichton's research...