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At 12/27/05 12:55 AM, SleepInducedIntelect wrote: So you think you're an intelligent human being, do you?
Answer me this.

You have nothing better to do in life.

i get it now. i change my answer to change

I think I would take my chances and pick at random.

I think I understand the premise of this puzzle now. The thing is, there is no 50/50 chance, it still remains a 33/33/33 chance, only now, one of the options remains. However, if the question were devised in a way that once the goat was shown, it was removed for the problem entirely, then the problem would have 50/50 results, either being a goat, or being a car.

I still don't see how this'll be bettter if you change your selection...There's still two doors and there's still a 50/50 chance that you'd pick a goat. I don't see how changing doors would better your odds.

at first u have 2/3 chance of goat

the second stage u have 2 to choose from and odds are u picked the wrong one so change

Ok.

The only way I can see this is if you include the already open door in your choice of changing. (in blue)

If you only include the two remaining doors it is 50/50, but that third door makes the option of choosing a 2/3 chance to win.

However, you speculated at the beginning that the game show host opened a different door than the one you had already chosen, so everyone assumes that you shouldn't calculate the odds for that third door...it is just up to you if you want to.

btw s- means stay c- change and g-goat on my diagram.

At 12/27/05 01:19 AM, b3nnic3 wrote:

At 12/27/05 01:12 AM, SleepInducedAlt wrote:

Here's the diagram, I just finished it.

Ugh, lost it when I switch accounts to my alt. God damn photo attachments...

Mmmm, you have to eliminate one of those doors. The chance to get a car is 50/50.

Yes, you do have to eliminate one of the doors, but because you have already made a choice where the chances were 2/3 or choosing a goat.

Fuck, I didn't want to explain it the hard way, but here goes.
I'll use an analogy.

If you have to choose between X's and O's, and there are 2 X's and one O, then the chances, we can all agree, are 2/3 that you get an X, and 1/3 that you get an O.

Good so far? Alright.

Now if you make a choice, where there is a 2/3 chance of choosing an X and a 1/3 chance of choosing an O, then, we can all agree, that you are MORE likely to have chosen an X, then an O.

Still following? Ok.

So after this choice has been made, wherin there was a greater chance of choosing an X (let's just say that you DID choose an X, though it makes no difference), the OTHER remaining X is removed.

Therefor, of the X and the O, there is still a higher chance of you having chosen an X, and by switching, there is a higher chance of getting an O.

In short? Here goes.

If you chose goat A, then goat B is removed.

If you chose goat B, then goat A is removed.

The chances of having A goat removed, is 100%, that is not up for debate.

So, just because one knows that ONE goat is GOING to be removed, it doesn't change the fact that there is a higher chance of choosing a goat. You choose the first goat, the other is removed, you choose the second goat, the the first is removed...

But the chances of chosing a goat are 2/3, none the less.

At 12/27/05 01:37 AM, SleepInducedIntelect wrote:

But the chances of chosing a goat are 2/3, none the less.

That post explained a lot more...

I understand now that you have a greater chance by switching, because it improves from 33% to 50%.

also outline by my 3rd rate diagram above.

At 12/27/05 01:35 AM, Sandspider wrote: at first u have 2/3 chance of goat

the second stage u have 2 to choose from and odds are u picked the wrong one so change

absolutely fantastic...but that still doesn't answer anything. You are correct that your first selection is 2/3, but then after the goat is revealed your pick would change to the 50/50 with no relation what so ever to your first pick. Because when the goat is revealed that basically changes the 2/3 to 50/50. I'd say that if you change or stay, you'll still have the same chance.

At 12/27/05 01:25 AM, Captn_Obvious wrote:

At 12/27/05 01:21 AM, Warrickneff wrote: Your image says 2/3, but the tally at the end shows...1/2.

Plz explain to a non-Phd ignorant.

This is the thread killer, I fixed the diagram so everyone can understand (I'm sure you're just sleep deprivedif you can't):

You're totally wrong, and I love it. But I respect you much for even thinking about this, as most people are not.

You see, the goats are not replicas, not the exact same choice. You cannot disregard one, or bundle them up as ONE choice, like in your diagram.

You've removed an entire chain of possibility, which is a logic error.

At 12/27/05 01:41 AM, deadafterall wrote:
absolutely fantastic...but that still doesn't answer anything. You are correct that your first selection is 2/3, but then after the goat is revealed your pick would change to the 50/50 with no relation what so ever to your first pick. Because when the goat is revealed that basically changes the 2/3 to 50/50. I'd say that if you change or stay, you'll still have the same chance.

no because u already picked the wrong one on the first stage accoring to the 2/3 odds

removing the goat actually ups ur chance if u change, because there are less to change to

ill put it this way, u pick the wrong one, i get rid of another wrong one, so the only one left is the right one

i choose the goat, goat > car.

lol

At 12/27/05 01:30 AM, -VinDiesel- wrote: I think I understand the premise of this puzzle now. The thing is, there is no 50/50 chance, it still remains a 33/33/33 chance, only now, one of the options remains. However, if the question were devised in a way that once the goat was shown, it was removed for the problem entirely, then the problem would have 50/50 results, either being a goat, or being a car.

Precisely. You could not remove the goat before hand because it would not be the same question.

I think it comes down to this. You aren't just removing a goat, if you did that then it would be 50/50, you are removing the goat that was not chosen, or one of the two goats, if the car was chosen originally.

This makes it a 66% chance of choosing a goat, with a 100% chance of a goat being removed afterwards. If we go by what is most likely, choosing a goat, than it will cut out the OTHER goat, which will happen no matter what.

After this it is just a matter of the diagram.

I still don't get it, because when you take away one goat your original picks' chances are therefore changed. Because when you make a 2/3 pick, then remove one of them it switches to 50/50. I just can't get this because you have made a choice and one of the bad prizes has been removed thus you are left with two doors, what i'm looking for is a direct relation to the first and second choice.

At 12/27/05 01:46 AM, Sandspider wrote: no because u already picked the wrong one on the first stage accoring to the 2/3 odds

removing the goat actually ups ur chance if u change, because there are less to change to

ill put it this way, u pick the wrong one, i get rid of another wrong one, so the only one left is the right one

You've saved me some explanation posting, thank you, and you have clearly grasped this. Awesome ^_^

At 12/27/05 01:51 AM, deadafterall wrote: I still don't get it, because when you take away one goat your original picks' chances are therefore changed. Because when you make a 2/3 pick, then remove one of them it switches to 50/50. I just can't get this because you have made a choice and one of the bad prizes has been removed thus you are left with two doors, what i'm looking for is a direct relation to the first and second choice.

u dont make the choice after the goat is removed. u make it before when its 2/3. so according to that u more likely chose the wrong one. then there is only car and goat. u have ur finger on the goat so u change it.
i guess u just get it or u dont. cus i cant get any better with the xplanation

At 12/27/05 01:43 AM, SleepInducedIntelect wrote: You're totally wrong, and I love it. But I respect you much for even thinking about this, as most people are not.

You see, the goats are not replicas, not the exact same choice. You cannot disregard one, or bundle them up as ONE choice, like in your diagram.

You've removed an entire chain of possibility, which is a logic error.

Ah, I see what you're trying to argue now. Well, I'm not COMPLETLY wrong, you see I was accounting for human intellegence, and the fact that ultimatly, you will be left with one goat, and one car, and the choice is givin to you whether to pick one or the other (without know which is which, or course).
My only logic error is realizing the the contestant won't choose the goat they're shown. No bitterness intended.

u dont make the choice after the goat is removed. u make it before when its 2/3. so according to that u more likely chose the wrong one. then there is only car and goat. u have ur finger on the goat so u change it.
i guess u just get it or u dont. cus i cant get any better with the xplanation

ummm, HELLO
you make a choice to swtich or not man, thus you basically can choose again. What i need to grasp this is to know the direct relation to your first and second choice, because there IS a second choice to change...

At 12/27/05 01:53 AM, SleepInducedIntelect wrote:
You've saved me some explanation posting, thank you, and you have clearly grasped this. Awesome ^_^

ur welcome, but i have to thank u to for posting the question and explaining it to me

here is the answer as i remember it.

i do know that changing it is the proper decision, but i cannot state it in terms that are understandable.

you know that you have 3 choices, you pick one; you are told that one that you did not pick is worng, you are down to 50/50. BUT, you know that the one you are on may be wrong, you have a slight propability of picking the right door if you change your choice.

my stat teacher showed this to us once, but i have forgotten

At 12/27/05 01:51 AM, deadafterall wrote: I still don't get it, because when you take away one goat your original picks' chances are therefore changed. Because when you make a 2/3 pick, then remove one of them it switches to 50/50. I just can't get this because you have made a choice and one of the bad prizes has been removed thus you are left with two doors, what i'm looking for is a direct relation to the first and second choice.

I think I can get you to understand.

Going by probability, you PROBABLY chose a goat, in the first place. So let's say you did choose a goat. Let's start here.

You chose a goat. Ok?

The other goat is then removed.

You switch your answer you get a car.

It's just that simple.

y does this bastard ask the ppl of NG this question when he knows NONE of us have PhDs, unless one of you guys is a bit older perhaps? and im being baffled?

Going by probability, you PROBABLY chose a goat, in the first place. So let's say you did choose a goat. Let's start here.

You chose a goat. Ok?

The other goat is then removed.

You switch your answer you get a car.

It's just that simple.

wow, so basically your whole reasoning is depended apon that i choose the goat first. The problem with that is that i could have also picked the car. Then where's your damn simplicity 0.o.... because when you make your first pick you then basically are able to pick again, could someone, for the love of god, give me the direct relationship to the first and second pick.

If the human is an intelligent design; why do we die? WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE.

At 12/27/05 02:13 AM, deadafterall wrote:

Going by probability, you PROBABLY chose a goat, in the first place. So let's say you did choose a goat. Let's start here.

You chose a goat. Ok?

The other goat is then removed.

You switch your answer you get a car.

It's just that simple.

wow, so basically your whole reasoning is depended apon that i choose the goat first. The problem with that is that i could have also picked the car. Then where's your damn simplicity 0.o.... because when you make your first pick you then basically are able to pick again, could someone, for the love of god, give me the direct relationship to the first and second pick.

God damn it man! Can't you see! I said you chose a goat because chances were you DID choose a goat.

What does this mean?

It means that chances are you chose a goat, so chances are you get a car if you switch.

So SWITCH, and you have a better chance of getting a car!

At 12/27/05 02:19 AM, SleepInducedAlt wrote: God damn it man! Can't you see! I said you chose a goat because chances were you DID choose a goat.

What does this mean?

It means that chances are you chose a goat, so chances are you get a car if you switch.

So SWITCH, and you have a better chance of getting a car!

I think I see where you are losing the logic.

The relationship between the first segment and the second segment is this.

After the first segment your choice is likely to have been a goat, because of the odds, and therefore you should switch, in the second segment.

im from NEWGROUNDS...so i take chances....id go for the other door

when you mean stumped intelligent people you mean yourself right. 3 doors...you guessed once...wrong...he says you get another choice...2 doors left...50/50 chance bub.

Either your retarded or these PHD holders are retarded

okay, I have to get some sleep now, and since you still seem to be arguing against me, I'm going to go through the math tommorow, and HOPEFULLY, you'll reconsider your position on this (I'll be able to explain this better tommorow, as I need some sleep now)
I will hopefully answer this around 2:00 O'clock central time.