America...

[Jirekianu]

A great nation, but what about later on? say... another 100 years or so? Regardless of who's president in the upcoming election... and I do mean regardless of that fact.. anyone who references bush or kerry in their argument from here on in... may you be flamed into hell.

Alright... America right now is on the top of the world, don't deny it. We're powerful, rich, and make most of the countries around us our bitch. Hey that rhymed! *cough* anyway. We've become pretty soft actually because of this. People in this country have a tendency to blame others, and whine about little mess ups. I've noticed myself doing it, my friends, my family, hell people on national television becoming upset with minor things.

This is part of my reason to think that the US, the country I love being in and would die for in a moments notice, is destined for either collapse or major reform. In 200 years we've gone from a bright star of democratic hope, to a soft, complacent ass-whoper. We're like Rome. There are more and more holidays, and technology allows for us to have to do less of the work that we did before... any similarities to rome and how more and more slaves were used for things that legitimate workers had done themselves?

Yeah, I think we're in trouble, but it isn't just the country, it's Humanity itself on this planet. Ever notice how things get better after a major catastrophie? (sp?) WW2 brought about a huge leap in technological development, and many countries were united in their decisions. We all banded together. I say humanity as a whole is long overdue for a big ass problem. Whether it's a war, a virus, an alien invasion/encounter, or just anything that would just unite us, and better us.

Now... I've totally ranted myself out here... I'm done... give me your opinion and don't be afraid to flame me to hell if you wish. I can take it as much as I dish it out, have fun people.

[Camarohusky]

Rome, England, Mongolia, Greece, Egypt...
All of the big empires of the past have fallen. And you're not the first person to point out the similarities between America and Rome. A famous author back in the 40's or 50's (Steinbeck maybe?) wrote an essay about it. Though he predicted that America would not live past the end of the 20th century.

I think we will lose out, but we will still remain America as we are now, just not the world power.
The reason we will not be the world power is because of economics. Back in the days of Rome and the English Empire military power was the ruling power of the world, but nowadays the dollar (that term is soon to change as the American economy fadeds into mediocrity) is the symbol of power. ANd in about 50 years countries like China and India with enough man power to outlast our economy will take the lead in the economic world. You can see signs of this today, with outsourcing and the outright enormous manufacturing power of both of those nations.

[Professor-Burgees]

I think you have a very good point, Ive seen that kinda thing over here in merry old England...just when I posted it on here I had a more "wild-eyed prophet of doom" style to it than the "logical, well-thought out micro-essay" you've got. I think I prefer your version...

[greenpixie]

Thanks to bush, America is a dictatorship.

[thekinman]

America wont collapse, it will just phase out. Itll still be an economic superpower, and not bad in military, but it will lose a political stance anytime soon, it already is. Soon, America will be chinas bitch like Uk is America`s now. The future superpowers will be Japan, China, Germany, (maybe) Uk and, Im being really optimistic here, Bolivars dream of the great Colombia would be realized, and the new south american superpower would have Brazil licking its balls. Otherwise, Brazil would be a player, and the rest of south America will lick its balls. Also, india will do a lot better than now, if aids doesnt wipe them out. America will still be the richest because it will sell everything to everyone, but it will be little else.

[Camarohusky]

At 7/16/04 02:58 PM, thekinman wrote: America wont collapse, it will just phase out. Itll still be an economic superpower, and not bad in military, but it will lose a political stance anytime soon, it already is. Soon, America will be chinas bitch like Uk is America`s now. The future superpowers will be Japan, China, Germany, (maybe) Uk and, Otherwise, Brazil would be a player, and the rest of south America will lick its balls.

Germany, JApan and the UK probably wont be superpowers. They don't have superpower. The reason the US is a superpower was because it has a very large industrial base, much larger than Japan, Germany, and the UK combined, and it used this industrial base to control a large part of the economy and to build a large stronger, more industiralized military. I also doubt Brazil has the economic power to become a true superpower, yes it may become the leader of the South American continent, but frankly, that doesn't provide it with too much poltical prowess.

Now China and India are bound to become the new superpowers. The pure industrial potential they can wield will make America's industry look like Canada's does now (might be good, but overall it's pretty weak in the scheme of the world.)
All India and China have to deal with is their extremely large lower classes, once they can figure out how to deal with that, it's free sailnig to the top of the world for both of those nations. Yes America will still be one of the top economic, and therefore political powers, but loses its reign of the top, I don't think it will ever get it back.

[thekinman]

well, while you might be right, you still undersestimate Germany`s indutrial potential, and the fact that a country no longer needs resources ( except for manpower and information) to become rich. Thats why I have hopes on brazil, but not on India, not tat much, since dealing with the large lower classes will be impossible if the beurocracy does not end.

[theburningliberal]

At 7/16/04 02:54 PM, greenpixie wrote: Thanks to bush, America is a dictatorship.

It seems as if he is trying, anyway. I read somewhere that executive power during the Bush Administration has gone up something like 35%.

Maybe he knows that if he tries to convince a lot of Congressional Republicans of his schemes, he'll just fail. After all, in a Senate sub-committee hearing on a $274 billion dollar transportation bill, the hearing was used more as a fully bi-partisan lambasting of the President's suggestion, rather than a forum to encourage debate on the issue.

[Gunter45]

At 7/16/04 12:52 PM, Jirekianu wrote:

There are more and more holidays, and technology allows for us to have to do less of the work that we did before...

And yet we still work more in a week than every European country. In fact, Americans use next to no vacation days at all. In fact, there are some companies, such as IBM, that REQUIRES employees to use up vacation times. And certain think tanks offer incentives to employees that use up all their vacation days. Why? Because the average American is a workaholic, and companies realize that a workaholic is more likely to have a burnout, which is thusly bad for the company as a whole. The stereotypical "Lazy American" is a load of crap. As for the pure industrial potential of China and India: it is indeed absolutely tremendous. However, not only will they have to deal with the tens, if not hundreds of millions of their lower classes, they also have to develop at least mediocre infrastructure to tap into the enormous economic might they could possess. As far as China goes, Communism doesn't really make things better. If China is to become a true economic superpower, then they will have to embrace capitalism. China is already someone capitalist, making them more socialist than communist, and that capitalist sector is their leading cash source. The reaquisition of Hong Kong also will have an influence on China's inevitable turn to capitalism. As many people well know, Hong Kong is extremely capitalist, and while it was a British Territory, it displayed one of the most pure forms of capitalism in the world. When it was reaquired by China, the first thing that any good communist country would do would be to send them all to reeducation facilities like they did in the 50's. How strange then that China actually allows them to almost govern themselves and even use their own set of currency ( as verified by a friend of mine who goes to UT with me who was raised in Hong Kong ). I guess the whole point of that was to verify that if things progress as they are, China is looking at become quite a power, if it isn't royally screwed by their "one baby per family" law, which is causing them to systematically kill off all of their little baby girls. And with fewer women, their population rates will severely plummet, limiting their available workforce. India on the other hand is still going strong in the baby making department. I think India will become a much more formidable power a lot sooner than China, simply because America is outsourcing so much of its labor there. It's as if we're handing the key to superpower-dom directly to India on a silicon platter. Not that that's a bad thing exactly, I guess we'll just see how things turn out.

[RuthlessBastard]

At 7/16/04 02:58 PM, thekinman wrote: America wont collapse, it will just phase out. Itll still be an economic superpower, and not bad in military, but it will lose a political stance anytime soon, it already is. Soon, America will be chinas bitch like Uk is America`s now. The future superpowers will be Japan, China, Germany, (maybe) Uk and, Im being really optimistic here, Bolivars dream of the great Colombia would be realized, and the new south american superpower would have Brazil licking its balls. Otherwise, Brazil would be a player, and the rest of south America will lick its balls. Also, india will do a lot better than now, if aids doesnt wipe them out. America will still be the richest because it will sell everything to everyone, but it will be little else.

I highly doubt that either Japan, Germany and the U.K. will be the next superpowers. It would be nice to see Bolivar's dream of the great Colombia be realised (haha, partially because I am part Colombian) , however, one must keep in mind that these are age-old empires that have almost depleted all of their natural resources and the only way in which they would be able to maintain their status would be through invading other countries.

My personal theory is that many of the "third world" nations are emerging gradually and soon will be on the playing field with the superpowers. If nations such as India, Africa, etc. don't let themselves be pushed around by the more powerful countries right now, they will definitely be more influential in future world affairs.

About the U.S.' demise, it will most likely crumble from within. If one thing ends up destroying the U.S. it will most likely be its own people and society. No one in our generation (at least in their right mind) would attack the States directly. If that happened, all of hell would break loose and we would care very little for international law; potentially starting another world war. All of you are right that it is headed to a fall, much like the other great nations of the past. However, we don't know when it could happen. I would just suggest right now to refrain from being such a headstrong nation and putting leaders in power that act mostly in their own interests.

[thereallurch]

It is too bad no one with a bit more power is likely to see this and take all of you seriously. It is true enough that the US is going to fall soon enough. Before continuing I should mention I am not among the minority of Muslims who believe they need to destroy our nation. I am just a peace-loving Christian, and not afraid to admit that much.

Those of us who made it through high school before revisionist history came along, and probably even some after since some teachers refused to lie to their students, know very well this nation was all about Jehovah, Lord of Jews and Christians at its founding. Revisionist history teaches that there was a large mix of religions in the founders but letters and such from and to those people reveal that that is not the case. Also, seperation of church and state was ONLY mentioned in a personal letter one of the founding fathers wrote and he was ONLY saying no one Christian DENOMINATION would be chosen as the national religion. Anyhow, before I go off on a much larger tangent than I intended, this nation, like Isreal of the Old testament, was founded with a blessing from our Lord. When Isreal turned away from the Lord Isreal fell every time. Every time before they fell the Lord sent Prophets to try to set them straight and if they would have listened he would have forgiven them. I guess some of you who discount religion entirely or are somehow sheltered from it would not have the opportunity to see this. I am sure the government doesn't want you too either. But talk to some of the young adult Christians right now. Yeah you may talk to a few hundred who go to church but have not really figured out what it is really about. There are lots of those, but I know many who have figured out what it is all about, and if our nation would just take a few moments to listen to the young mouths they assume are too inexperienced to lead they would find that the Lord has not sent a single prophet as he has to Isreal so many times. He has sent many all with the same message. We will be lucky to see two more generations before we fall if we don't start to listen.

[Camarohusky]

At 7/17/04 03:36 AM, Gunter45 wrote:

If China is to become a true economic superpower, then they will have to embrace capitalism.

Actually I heard that 2 or 3 years ago China officially becoem a wholly free-market economy. But I have no sources and I don't care to find any, so if I'm wrong, please tell me. (We also did not go into economics much in my chinese history calss I took this spring)

China is looking at become quite a power, if it isn't royally screwed by their "one baby per family" law, which is causing them to systematically kill off all of their little baby girls. And with fewer women, their population rates will severely plummet, limiting their available workforce.

The one baby per family I think will be abandoned if China becomes a totally developed nation, because developed nations' birth rates slow dramatically. Strangley, China's population growht since before the year 1000 BCE has been concurrent with the world average (2.5% growht per year i think.) It's just that theres som many damn people there that you get 2.5% of 500 million at the turn of the century. And yes the discarding of female children is no less than crippling Chinese society. I do not make this statement up when I say that there are rural parts of China that have the problem of not enough females to sustain the population. (This confirmed by my history professor, who specializes in China.)

India on the other hand is still going strong in the baby making department.

India's baby making boom will kill it. Yes there is a lot of potential work comign there, but there is so many babies that the country cannot afford to take care of them and the lower class who's population is already close to three times the population of the entire US (India having about 750 million lower class citizens). This boom will only prove to be an enormous road block for India to become a super power no doubt about it.

[Gunter45]

Good points. Exactly what I was talking about for China. In order to become a majr economic power then it must make some changes. And it has been and is continuing to do so. I think it will become a viable economic player soon.

As far as India is concerned, I was merely taking about pure industrial potential. Of course it won't live up to its full potential, not many things do, it still has a huge leg up on many nations. All of the outsourcing from American computer industries is sending an enormous number of jobs to India. Nowhere near enough to satisfy their enormous population, but it is still a lot of jobs. Now, the rule of competition applies for workers as well. Indian companies are able to hire extremely qualified personel for cheaper than dirt because there are so many people who need jobs. As India continues to grow, this will be a hindrance if they decide to have programs, like in America, that take care of poverty-stricken citizens. And as far as I know, they don't. So, there is no money wasted on people who don't have jobs (and I use wasted from a purely from an economic standpoint, and not socially). Thus, their corporations are able to make enormous profits. The only problem is that the largest part of any economy is the consumer sector, in America, it account for hundreds of billions of dollars in GDP. Therefore, in order to boost their GDP, things have to change in India as well. And it appears that might be a little farther off. But with limited space in India, it might become like Japan in that people sleep in little boxes for a bunch of money.

[Camarohusky]

Seeing as India is a democracy it cannot support a superpower economy and an enormous lower class. Though there is now (250 mil) and probably will be a lot more middle class peopel able of doing equal quality work as the average American, the enormous lower class will be dead weight that keeps the government from doing much.

And don't even get me started on the state of politics in general in India right now... The BJP is not a step in the direction of world superpower...

[theburningliberal]

I can honestly see America falling in the next 100 years. But that fall will come at the hands of irresponsible conservatives who want to cut the taxes and spend more money. It just doesn't work that way. What will happen is we'll have about 20 years of conservatively dominant politicians, the federal deficit will explode, the National Debt will explode, one country or another will want their money back, and when we can't do it, they'll nuke us into oblivion.

[Thanatos-DTH1]

As far as America losing it's pre-eminent position goes, I would agree. History teaches us that this is inevitable. The problem is, that nobody can tell when or how this will happen. And most historians would agree, that most of the previous dominant civilizations didn't actually lose their number one status in the course of a day, or even a year. Truth is, it's hard to pinpoint when a civilization goes back down the ladder. As far as anyone knows, we might already have lost it.

As far as the next emerging super nation goes, why has nobody considered the Russian Federation. They've got the manpower, they've got the technological capacity, and they've got the resources. All they need is a little infrastructure to get those resources, Siberia being fairly undeveloped, and a little bit of time to get their new government working. This of course supposes that the criminal element doesn't overthrow the government and the federation collapses in anarchy. Which would probably be the beginning of WWIII.

[Stresskillingme]

All I say will happen is the US will Christen run country and will be a even more closed than now, a lot like Iran.

[Mr-Ahmed]

At 7/17/04 02:22 PM, thereallurch wrote: It is too bad no one with a bit more power is likely to see this and take all of you seriously. It is true enough that the US is going to fall soon enough. Before continuing I should mention I am not among the (minority of Muslims who believe they need to destroy our nation). I am just a peace-loving Christian, and not afraid to admit that much

what is that all about mulims trying to destroy your nation your country is destroying it self and its taking other countries with it .

come on its just a matter of time dont ya see it is just starting every thing is going corrupt . nothing good or bad lasts for long war, famine, corruption etc can destroy any great nation and its all happing in your country in front of you but you cant see and if can see it you cant do nothing about it or can you?

[IceWraith15]

At 7/16/04 02:54 PM, greenpixie wrote: Thanks to bush, America is a dictatorship.

No it isn't, read up on how the U.S government works.

[IceWraith15]

I think that in the future the very concept of a superpower will demise, not necesarilly through the crumbling of nations but because we are becoming a more and more global world. Eventually the world will work together and thus economic and military power will be worldwide. Thus, the United States will not fall but the rest of the world will rise.

[witeshark]

There will be changes, slowly I guess.

[Camarohusky]

At 7/18/04 05:13 PM, IceWraith15 wrote: I think that in the future the very concept of a superpower will demise, not necesarilly through the crumbling of nations but because we are becoming a more and more global world. Eventually the world will work together and thus economic and military power will be worldwide. Thus, the United States will not fall but the rest of the world will rise.

Hmm.... I've never thought of it that way... That could be entirely possible. I guess I'm just too cynnical abotu whether the people of the world could acctually work together. I just think that the people are too unwilling to give up their sovreignty and forgive past events to join together under one state.

[Gunter45]

It is the fate of the superpower to collapse. It happened with Egypt, Greece, Rome, Babylon, China, and it will happen to America. Will it happen in a hundred years? That remains to be seen. 100 years on the global stage is pretty short, as is the 228 years that America has been in existance. Judging from past collapses, each empire lasted for far longer than 300 years. In this rapidly changing age, however, I agree that the American superpower will never last millenia as the great nations did in ancient times. I'd give it another couple hundred years at the least.

[Camarohusky]

At 7/18/04 10:51 PM, Gunter45 wrote: It is the fate of the superpower to collapse. It happened with Egypt, Greece, Rome, Babylon, China, and it will happen to America.

China? They were a superpower? Hmm...

[griffenmaster]

America will not fall, but it may reform. I see two possible outcomes, one being that minorities will bitch and moan and complain until they become dominant over the majority, or it will remain as it is, a constant struggle to screw they fellow man and any foriegner who thows himself in the mix.

[Gunter45]

Yeah, there was a time when everybody in Europe wanted to find the quickest sea route to China to trade with them. China was probably the most powerful trade nation. That's even in the later years of their power, they used to bea extremely dominant. The fact that you didn't know that seems to validate the fact that they have crumbled into obscurity.

[Camarohusky]

At 7/18/04 11:02 PM, Gunter45 wrote: Yeah, there was a time when everybody in Europe wanted to find the quickest sea route to China to trade with them. China was probably the most powerful trade nation. That's even in the later years of their power, they used to bea extremely dominant. The fact that you didn't know that seems to validate the fact that they have crumbled into obscurity.

They may have been a trade superpower, but they were never a major player in world affairs until even recently. Back in the day when Europe was trying so hard to get Chinese goods, China may have had an economic effect on the world, but at that time, economy wasn't power, military force and naval force was power, and that's why the British and the spanish were the superpowers of that time. In the 1800s China was absolutely nowhere near being a superpower, britian came in and in two ro three turkeyshoots managed to back the Qing into a big corner, and by the turn of the 20th century, China was under the control of every nation that had just even the slightest bit of power in the world. Back to the time when China traded with Europe... The time when China traded the most with Europe, It wasn't China, it under the Yuan dynasty i.e. it was a tributary of the Mongolian empire, the largest empire, landwise, to exist on earth. China had always been too busy securing its own territory, fighting off the northern barbarians, and too busy dealign with its own inner affairs to really become a world power.
And it was too isolated as well. The only borders it had were between northern barbarians, viet nam, india, korea and japan. It was too far away from the political center of the world to haev an effect on it.

[griffenmaster]

At 7/18/04 11:45 PM, Camarohusky wrote: They may have been a trade superpower, but they were never a major player in world affairs until even recently

You have proven yourself wrong, as all the support you give shows evidence that they had a role in the world from early centuries. They were the jewel of asia, they were the piece of land everyone wanted, and so forth as they kept themselves in the public eye. More people have heared about china than the amount of people who have heard of any other country from the early years of civilization until now. They must have had something going for them! Also, you may not know your history, but China was very powerful for many centuries, and it was quick to adopt european military weapons and stratagy, thus keeping itself free and independant.

[Camarohusky]

At 7/19/04 12:22 AM, griffenmaster wrote:

You have proven yourself wrong, as all the support you give shows evidence that they had a role in the world from early centuries. They were the jewel of asia, they were the piece of land everyone wanted, and so forth as they kept themselves in the public eye. More people have heared about china than the amount of people who have heard of any other country from the early years of civilization until now. They must have had something going for them! Also, you may not know your history, but China was very powerful for many centuries, and it was quick to adopt european military weapons and stratagy, thus keeping itself free and independant.

Hows about you talk about Chinese history when you spend 5 horus a week with a professor who has a doctoarate on the subject, a doctorate dealing with the Qing, the time period when China had its most direct contact with Europe, the power of the world at that time. Yes China had some influence, and everyone wanted a part of it. But it was no where near being a superpower.

And as of the beginning of the Opium War , that which I mentioned before, in the middle of the 19th century, China wasn't free. They were controlled by Europe and Japan. Yes they were "officially" independant, but that does not mean that they weren't essentially ruled by the other countires. China wasn't truly independant until after World War One. Ane before the Opium war all China was to the rest of the world was a rich trading post, because they had what Europe didn't have. They never had any control over the political scene of the world.

You tell me when they adopted European strategies? Last I heard, their military strategies were always hybrids of the "barbarians" from the northern area of China. And do you mean to tell me that the Chinese adopted missiles and gunpowder from the Europeans? WRONG!! Both were created in China, and the British assimilated them into their military armies. And if you call attacking a late 19th century modern Japanese fleet with a bunch of 15th century boats European tactics, you are sorely mistaken.

I think it is you who should check out your history little man.

[witeshark]

All interesting. Obviously things are gonna evolve. A business selling and construction building and always doing more of it endlessly is not going to work forever! Time to plan the future!