At 10/20/08 03:33 PM, phileeguy wrote:
As for the games, I'm hoping that the fact that the Rays went 7 and the fact that they can't set their rotation up exactly the way they would want will play a factor to the Phils advantage.
Just to throw out there if you count up all the major sports (NBA,NFL,NHL,MLB) it has been 100 seasons since Philadelphia had a champion when the Sixers won it in 1983 which is 9,274 days ago (burns,doesn't it) but here is my analogy of how the World Series will go about in the first four games.
Game 1 - Tampa is pretty much forced to throw out their only starting left handed pitcher in the first game in Scott Kazmir against Cole Hamels which i believe they would have done anyway cause Kazmir gives them the best chance to beat Hamels with Kazmir allowing an average under .200 and just 1 home run against lefties and having an ERA of 2.90 at home and you throw in a 2.89 ERA of 102 innings at night games,as for Hamels there are flaws with him mainly cause he gives up high averages of .260 .294 and .304 to the #2,#3 and #7 hitters then you throw in his two games in dome games he gave up 11 earned runs,i know Hamels has been unstoppable this postseason but it seems to me Kazmir has the advantage with this one.
Game 2 - We know that "Big Game" James Shields is excellent at home but i really don't like him in this matchup against Brett Myers mainly cause he gives up enormously high averages to the Phillies best lineup hitters with a .279 .295 .289 and a .398 against the #2,#3,#4 and #6 hitters and he has been very bad at night games having an ERA of 4.19 and allowing an average of .270 though he does have 111 strikeouts compared to 49 strikeouts in day games so the Phillies will get a lot of pitches to hit and as for Brett Myers it doesn't get much better with the fact he is terrible on the road having an ERA of 6.21 and a Strikeout to Walk ratio of 67/36 and the two games in a dome he also stunk it up giving up 10 earned runs with an average of .370 then you throw in that he allows an average of .327 to the leadoff hitter and averages of .356 .321 and .325 to the #3,#4 and #5 hitters,this game will probably be a shootout but i got to take Shields here at home.
Game 3 - This one will also most likely be a shootout and not to say anything bad about Matt Garza cause God knows he has been fantastic this postseason but he really isn't good on the road having an ERA of 4.53 and allowing 14 or his 19 home runs and allowing an average of .315 to the leadoff hitter and though Jamie Moyer is no spring chicken oddly enough he is worse at home then he is on the road having an ERA ratio of 4.62/2.92 which brings up the question why Moyer isn't pitching Game 2 and Myers pitching Game 3 but it is what it is and i like the Phillies bullpen to win this one for them.
Game 4 - You got Joe Blanton against Andy Sonnastine which one would say would be a shootout game but Sonnastine has pitched his best ball during the playoffs and during night games having a 3.81 ERA in 146 innings and though he may pitch right handed he pitches better against lefties giving up a .265 average compared to a .289 against righties while Joe Blanton doesn't really have any big advantages over the Rays except that he is better at home then on the road with an ERA of 4.31,Sonnastine defenetly has the advantage here and i'm going with the Rays on the road to make it 3-1 in the first four games.
to be continued....