Could NATO lose Turkey?

[Ranger2]

Food for thought:

I was watching From Russia With Love, and noted how back in the day, the Turkish government was absolutely dying to show its loyalty to NATO, and perhaps, if it were lucky, even be considered a fellow European country. Kemalist ideology reigned in the government; the government was strictly secular, and Westernization policies were put in place to emphasize Turkey's European roots.

Doesn't seem like that anymore.

For about a decade or more, Turkey has increasingly pivoted away from the West diplomatically, and shirked its role in NATO. Turkey has not participated in combat operations in Afghanistan, and has not acted with its European allies against ISIS.

Turkish internal politics largely shape the Eastward shift. Ever since the early 2000s, the Kemalist President Erdogan recently claimed that Muslims discovered America before Columbus, American soldiers were attacked in Istanbul by nationalist protestors. While these attacks do not represent the Erdogan government, they nevertheless reflect the anti-Western sentiment growing in the country.

Granted, increasing Turkish animosity towards the West is partially caused by the West rejecting Turkey. Western nations criticized the Turkish government's response to the Gezi protests. But I think the Europeans are the most to blame. Turkey's ascension to the EU is also on hold, as it has been for a long time. Angela Merkel has long opposed an EU-member Turkey, preferring a "privileged partnership." In 2007, Nicolas Sarkozy said that not just anyone can join the EU, and Turkey just isn't west enough. With its bids to join the EU spurned, Turkey feels it cannot connect with the West, and must look elsewhere.

I think the two biggest issues concerning European rejection of Turkey's ascension are a) the fact that Turkey will not call what happened to the Armenians a genocide, and b) a lot of Europeans are against the idea of a 95% Muslim nation joining the Christian-majority European Union. I think had Europeans swallowed their pride/fears and made Turkey an EU member, we would not be seeing this Eastward shift.

But would Turkey quit NATO, or be kicked out?

In the short run, no. Especially with ISIS on its border, Turkey needs a safety net, and is likely willing to put aside its hurt feelings and rely on the West for protection. Still, its improved relations with Iran and the Kurds may suggest the beginning of a shift towards less reliance on NATO for protection. Turkey's government has also been calling for the ouster of al-Assad (why, I will never understand) and only NATO has the power (though not the will) to do so.

But in the long run, now that Turkish sentiment is pivoting eastward, and with Turkey's seeming lesser role in NATO, and European spurning of Turkey, could we see Turkey leaving NATO in say, 10-15 years? Who knows. I think it's a possibility.

[SadisticMonkey]

At 12/28/14 02:21 AM, Ranger2 wrote: I think the two biggest issues concerning European rejection of Turkey's ascension are a) the fact that Turkey will not call what happened to the Armenians a genocide, and b) a lot of Europeans are against the idea of a 95% Muslim nation joining the Christian-majority European Union. I think had Europeans swallowed their pride/fears and made Turkey an EU member, we would not be seeing this Eastward shift.

It's think its mostly that these countries don't want the massive influx of turkish migrants that would follow Turkey EU membership. Which is absolutely fair enough.

fuck the turks

[DoctorStrongbad]

If Turkey leaves NATO, it would be the best thing, but would definitely not be the worse. Some nations can be more trouble than they are worth.

[Tony-DarkGrave]

Let them leave we don't need Turkey in NATO if they don't want to commit fully. when you sign that piece of paper you are giving a bit of leeway for NATO allies to use lands and airspace to fight a battle that effects them to because they can't have it their way fuck them. like they would be any better in the EU.

[AxTekk]

This seems like a bit of a non story. The facts are much better explained by Turkey not wanting to throw human lives, insane money and political capital at wars that are largely inconsequential to them. Smart Turkey. (Especially when ISIS would have to go through the Kurds to get to them if they just stay put, something Turkey would have absolutely no problem with.)

Nah, Germany basically runs the EU (with France ofc) & given how much Germany loves Turkish Muslim immigrants, something tells me Turkey's going to be staying outside of the no-visas-needed zone for a while.

[Warforger]

At 1/4/15 03:08 PM, AxTekk wrote: This seems like a bit of a non story. The facts are much better explained by Turkey not wanting to throw human lives, insane money and political capital at wars that are largely inconsequential to them. Smart Turkey. (Especially when ISIS would have to go through the Kurds to get to them if they just stay put, something Turkey would have absolutely no problem with.)

How are huge civil wars on their border not be consequential to Turkey? Especially considering the massive amount of refugee's along with possible NATO intervention?

Nah, Germany basically runs the EU (with France ofc) & given how much Germany loves Turkish Muslim immigrants, something tells me Turkey's going to be staying outside of the no-visas-needed zone for a while.

That's a little decietful since Germany has been one of the nations in opposition to Turkey joining the EU.

[AxTekk]

At 1/4/15 07:40 PM, Warforger wrote: How are huge civil wars on their border not be consequential to Turkey? Especially considering the massive amount of refugee's along with possible NATO intervention?

Implying Syria wouldn't be having a massive civil war without IS being involved anyway, and implying that removing IS would remove the civil war.

If you're also referring to Iraq, like I said, there's a giant buffer zone of people Turkey doesn't like in between them and IS, and it's pretty mountainous terrain. Some Iraqi refugees probably will come to Turkey, but I doubt Turkey believes that a) Turkish intervention would prevent that and b) Turkish intervention's costs would be worth preventing that. Especially with a military so weak and politically difficult.

That's a little decietful since Germany has been one of the nations in opposition to Turkey joining the EU.

Deceitful? & I would also argue that the whole immigration thing would have been a pretty huge factor for Germany historically as well, if they have some history opposing Turkey entering the EU.

[Warforger]

At 1/4/15 07:49 PM, AxTekk wrote: Implying Syria wouldn't be having a massive civil war without IS being involved anyway, and implying that removing IS would remove the civil war.

That's not the point. The point is that I find it preposterous that any nation would find a civil war in a neighboring country to be of little note and not involving them at all. While I'm not saying every nation would intervene they would at least take notice and do something about it. Especially considering there have already been skirmishes and casualties from the Turkish side in this war.

If you're also referring to Iraq, like I said, there's a giant buffer zone of people Turkey doesn't like in between them and IS, and it's pretty mountainous terrain. Some Iraqi refugees probably will come to Turkey, but I doubt Turkey believes that a) Turkish intervention would prevent that and b) Turkish intervention's costs would be worth preventing that. Especially with a military so weak and politically difficult.

A military invasion/occupation is one thing, but to say that they don't care at all especially when their allies are talking of joining is something I find ridiculous. Now I think the Kurdish issue is one they'll take note of, because of the Peshmarga fail to hold ISIS then I think Turkey will intervene because they probably don't want ISIS on their border.

Deceitful? & I would also argue that the whole immigration thing would have been a pretty huge factor for Germany historically as well, if they have some history opposing Turkey entering the EU.

Right, but they're not so close that Germany will back them in everything they do.

[AxTekk]

At 1/5/15 01:33 AM, Warforger wrote: That's not the point. [...] A military invasion/occupation is one thing, but to say that they don't care at all especially when their allies are talking of joining is something I find ridiculous.

Then I think we're having a misunderstanding - I definitely believe Turkey is taking note and probably using its influence behind closed doors to keep an eye on developments, and could well get involved if things change. But any military interventions require strengthening a politically hostile military, throwing away money, life, political capital etc and would put Turkey on the IS shit list, which, right now probably wouldn't be worth it.

Right, but they're not so close that Germany will back them in everything they do.

Yo, I was being ironic when I said Germany loves Muslim Turkish immigrants haha. They don't. That's a big reason why Germany doesn't want Turkish Muslims getting free entry to the EU, I think.

[AxTekk]

At 1/5/15 03:00 PM, lapis wrote: The Turkish government basically intervenes in any event involving Turks abroad and which threatens the Islamic and Turkish-nationalist interests of the country.

Wow, that's totally goddamn batshit. Probably a massive own-goal in the long run, given the anti-Islam and anti-Turk resentment in Europe at the moment.

No, Germany seems a lot more reasonable for not wanting an EU Turkey right now.

[Feoric]

At 1/5/15 01:33 AM, Warforger wrote: A military invasion/occupation is one thing, but to say that they don't care at all especially when their allies are talking of joining is something I find ridiculous. Now I think the Kurdish issue is one they'll take note of, because of the Peshmarga fail to hold ISIS then I think Turkey will intervene because they probably don't want ISIS on their border.

Remember that ISIS attacked Kobani from inside the Turkish border. There's even video!

I might be painting with too broad of a brush in saying "Turkey hosts and facilities ISIS within its own borders" but the evidence of at least one continuous incident is there. Turkey clearly isn't doing enough to prevent ISIS from getting inside their territory. If it were the PKK we were talking about instead of ISIS you'd know Erdogan would attempt to crush them in a minute.