The End of Euromaidan?

[Ranger2]

Ukraine's president recently announced a deal has been struck with the protestors in Kiev.

The protests started with the Russian-friendly president of Ukraine stopping a deal that would lead to Ukraine's ascension to the EU. Protestors carried EU and Ukrainian flags symbolizing their desire for their country to move away from Russia's sphere of influence and ally with the West.

About 100 people have died in the crashes, and world leaders have weighed in on the matter.

Do you think that a deal can be reached, and that this is the end of the protests? Keep in mind that Ukraine is culturally divided between the Russophone east and the more EU-leaning western half of the country. Plus, while a ceasefire was declared last night, it lasted for several hours before violence broke out again.

So who knows? You weigh in.

[Camarohusky]

It's a tough decision. Side with the EU and the dead weight of the Mediterranean countries, or side with Russia with its corrupt politics and shady economy.

Personally, I would love to see Russia biggest former state break away from their influence. Perhaps it would put Russia in its place.

[lapis]

If the country is nearly evenly split between people supporting EU/NATO membership and people supporting Russia, then the pluralist approach would be to do neither, or a little bit of both. Of the terms of the latest deal between the government and the opposition (if it lasts), the (potentially) best one is the national unity government, not the fresh elections. If pro-EU parties get 55% of the vote in the next elections, then the worst thing that the new government could do is to reopen talks about EU (and NATO?) membership, because then the message to people in the east would be to go to Kiev and start rioting in order to block the deal.

If pluralism fails, then the country should be partitioned into a Ukrainian nation-state in the west and a Russo-Ukrainian state in the east and Crimea. The former can then join the Western institutions and the latter can join Putin's customs union. Good luck drawing a border between those states, though. I wonder if this is what the rioting fascists of Svoboda are aiming for.

[orangebomb]

Neither side is particularly desirable, considering the EU are in such deep debt, particularly with the Metiterranean countries and Ireland, and Russia has a long history of bullying other countries around them, which only creates more deep seated negativity with Russia. Best case scenario, Ukraine would join the EU mostly to spite Russia and their corrupt sphere of influence, and Russia would just leave them alone, worse case scenario, the country would literately be split in two a la Germany after WW2, and there will be more skirmishes and violence.

I don't think either situation is going to happen outright, but either scenerio is still on the table, and from the looks of things, we're going to be here a while, so you might as well grab the popcorn and watch the show commence.

[MrPercie]

Well, I didn't see EU as being a great choice, I just hate seeing Ukraine being expected to be apart of Russias sphere, why? why should they?

[leanlifter1]

At 2/21/14 09:47 AM, Camarohusky wrote: It's a tough decision. Side with the EU and the dead weight of the Mediterranean countries, or side with Russia with its corrupt politics and shady economy.

Implying that the US is not engaged in corrupt politics, Big Government and damaged economy ? Not to mention that Russia, China, India and Iran are all off the US reserve currency for the buying and selling of oil. Ukraine seems to be in a real pinch but whoring itself out to the US for a figurative bed to sleep in will not fix any problems in the long term.

[orangebomb]

At 2/21/14 02:35 PM, leanlifter1 wrote: Implying that the US is not engaged in corrupt politics, Big Government and damaged economy ? Not to mention that Russia, China, India and Iran are all off the US reserve currency for the buying and selling of oil. Ukraine seems to be in a real pinch but whoring itself out to the US for a figurative bed to sleep in will not fix any problems in the long term.

This has little to do with American politics, if any at all. The only real preference that America would have is if Ukraine joined both the EU and NATO, and both are pretty unlikely to happen at the same time. Even if they do, they will be way behind other countries in terms of support and attention in both Europe and NATO, but at least they don't have to worry so much about being ramroded by Russia anymore if they do join us.

[leanlifter1]

At 2/21/14 02:48 PM, orangebomb wrote:

At 2/21/14 02:35 PM, leanlifter1 wrote: Implying that the US is not engaged in corrupt politics, Big Government and damaged economy ? Not to mention that Russia, China, India and Iran are all off the US reserve currency for the buying and selling of oil. Ukraine seems to be in a real pinch but whoring itself out to the US for a figurative bed to sleep in will not fix any problems in the long term.

This has little to do with American politics, if any at all.

It has everything to do with the US so long as the US Dollar is still used as the worlds Reserve Currency. Ukraine has a monumental decision to make in that if they side with Russia they are protected by China. The US is losing it's place as the holder of the world reserve currency and China is making preparations to take over that spot. US has the biggest Military, backing from the world banks and most likely has command over the most Oil reserves in the world. I am talking more about the survival of the Ukraine more than we are debating bull shit politics because I think we can both agree that the US is gearing up for massive war to try and hang onto it's place as a world hegemony.

The only real preference that America would have is if Ukraine joined both the EU and NATO, and both are pretty unlikely to happen at the same time. Even if they do, they will be way behind other countries in terms of support and attention in both Europe and NATO, but at least they don't have to worry so much about being ramroded by Russia anymore if they do join us.

Ass pumped by Russia or the US ? Six is one half dozen the other I presume.

[lapis]

At 2/21/14 03:14 PM, leanlifter1 wrote: Ukraine has a monumental decision to make in that if they side with Russia they are protected by China.

How? From what is China going to protect the Ukraine, and by what means? Seriously, what do you even mean?

[Ranger2]

At 2/21/14 03:26 PM, lapis wrote: How? From what is China going to protect the Ukraine, and by what means? Seriously, what do you even mean?

Leanlifter1 thinks that even somebody sneezing in Papua New Guinea is the result of the US. I really wish the US was powerful as Leanlifter1 says it is.

[leanlifter1]

At 2/21/14 03:53 PM, Ranger2 wrote:

At 2/21/14 03:26 PM, lapis wrote: How? From what is China going to protect the Ukraine, and by what means? Seriously, what do you even mean?

Leanlifter1 thinks that even somebody sneezing in Papua New Guinea is the result of the US. I really wish the US was powerful as Leanlifter1 says it is.

Please do research on what is and how the World Reserve Currency works.

[Ranger2]

At 2/21/14 03:58 PM, leanlifter1 wrote: Please do research on what is and how the World Reserve Currency works.

You don't even know what that means. You use words like "world reserve currency" and "petrodollar" incorrectly because you read them in a pamphlet somewhere.

[leanlifter1]

At 2/21/14 04:00 PM, Ranger2 wrote:

At 2/21/14 03:58 PM, leanlifter1 wrote: Please do research on what is and how the World Reserve Currency works.

You don't even know what that means. You use words like "world reserve currency" and "petrodollar" incorrectly because you read them in a pamphlet somewhere.

Don't make it personal man just please research how the World Reserve currency works and why a nations Government would want to hold onto it.

[orangebomb]

At 2/21/14 03:58 PM, leanlifter1 wrote: Please do research on what is and how the World Reserve Currency works.

First off, what does this World Reserve Currency have to do with the chaos in Ukraine? Second, don't use things that you have no proof of that aren't one-sided, biased sources for "petrodollar" or World Reserve Currency garbage.

This really has nothing to do with America for the most part, so quit trying to pass the blame to something that that either is irrelevant or has nothing to do with the conversation at all. Please refrain from derailing the topic at hand.

[leanlifter1]

At 2/21/14 05:25 PM, orangebomb wrote:

At 2/21/14 03:58 PM, leanlifter1 wrote: Please do research on what is and how the World Reserve Currency works.

First off, what does this World Reserve Currency have to do with the chaos in Ukraine?

If Ukraine sides with Russia they are officially rejecting the current World Reserve currency.

Second, don't use things that you have no proof of that aren't one-sided, biased sources for "petrodollar" or World Reserve Currency garbage.

You are denying that a World Reserve currency exists ?

This really has nothing to do with America for the most part, so quit trying to pass the blame to something that that either is irrelevant or has nothing to do with the conversation at all. Please refrain from derailing the topic at hand.

Your lack of understanding and blatant ignorance and disregard of global issues and make no mistake this is a Global issue such as the reality that if the Ukraine desires to move away from the west and get friendly with China/Russia which are in bed with each other then this is just another peg in the ladder for the demise of the American Hegemony. Ukraine's President is not stupid in that he realizes that it will be of great benefit to get friendly with the worlds next superpower while in times of relative peace.

[Twin81]

Ukraine is kinda split, you've noted already. Nearly evenly split. The opposition has won, there will be a new presidential election in 2014, and I don't know what course the new president will take.
The main trouble will be pacifying the radicals which hold lots of weapons now and their leader announced that they won't stop until Yanukovich _immediately_ resigns and leaves his presidential chair. Actually the opposition leaders aren't a true power now, those that stay behind them do.
Mind that part of Ukraine is deeply linked with Russia, we've been one country since the 19th century. Not politically, culturally linked, common people in both countries consider themselves friends and brothers, well, not counting the radical nationalists.
Anyway, we'll see. Ukraine will have a new government soon and a new political course.

[leanlifter1]

At 2/22/14 08:06 AM, Twin81 wrote: Ukraine is kinda split, you've noted already. Nearly evenly split. The opposition has won, there will be a new presidential election in 2014, and I don't know what course the new president will take.

In 2010 the IMF gave Ukraine more than $15 Billion in aid and the EU is offering the Ukraine a shit deal that would mean Political and economic suicide for the Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered another $15 Billion in assistance and a steep discount on natural gas. Russia's deal is much better than the IMF or the EU are willing to offer. A presidential election will not matter unless the IMF or EU bank roll a new one in which will mean once again economic and political suicide.

The main trouble will be pacifying the radicals

Who are the radicals ?

which hold lots of weapons now and their leader announced that they won't stop until Yanukovich _immediately_ resigns and leaves his presidential chair. Actually the opposition leaders aren't a true power now, those that stay behind them do.
Mind that part of Ukraine is deeply linked with Russia, we've been one country since the 19th century. Not politically, culturally linked, common people in both countries consider themselves friends and brothers, well, not counting the radical nationalists.
Anyway, we'll see. Ukraine will have a new government soon and a new political course.

This issue is allot more serious than you guy's are lead to believe.

[lapis]

I'm not sure, but the country seems to be in a large degree of chaos at the moment. Kiev is controlled by protesters, the western city of Lviv is said to be under control by Ukrainian nationalists while politicians in the eastern cities/regions of Kharkov, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporozhie are reaffirming their ties with Russia. Meanwhile, the International Business Times reports that the Russian military is standing by to, in case of a threatening break-up of the country, do the same thing they did with Georgia a couple years ago and invade in order to make sure that the Crimean peninsula ends up in pro-Russian hands, thereby maintaining a lifeline to the Russian-controlled breakaway republic of Transnistria in Moldavia. Then again, I had never heard of the International Business Times before so I'm not sure how reliable they are.

Things could get nasty if the varying factions in Ukraine don't get their shit together.

[leanlifter1]

At 2/22/14 09:24 AM, lapis wrote:

Things could get nasty if the varying factions in Ukraine don't get their shit together.

The Ukraine should just take the $15 Billion on offer from President Vladimir Putin and STFU cause it's the best deal they will get and they have no bargaining chips.

[lapis]

At 2/22/14 09:29 AM, leanlifter1 wrote: The Ukraine should just take the $15 Billion on offer from President Vladimir Putin and STFU cause it's the best deal they will get and they have no bargaining chips.

Who's "they"? The kleptocratic clique around Yanukovych and his natural voter base in the east?

[Twin81]

The main trouble will be pacifying the radicals

Who are the radicals ?

The radical party named 'The Right Sector' who announced that they will continue the revolution. Russian mass media claims they are behind all that mess and the opposition are actually pawns in their hands. Things are very serious indeed. But we'll see. I think Russia won't interfere. Not now at least.
And I sincerely hope Ukraine won't split up. It's the worst scenario. Yeah, their economics is in trouble now, but hope they'll cope.
I think the elections are rather important. Of course economic issues would affect them. But the new president will mean changes I think. Will it lean towards EU or Russia - we'll see.

[leanlifter1]

At 2/22/14 09:46 AM, Twin81 wrote:

The main trouble will be pacifying the radicals

Who are the radicals ?

The radical party named 'The Right Sector' who announced that they will continue the revolution. Russian mass media claims they are behind all that mess and the opposition are actually pawns in their hands. Things are very serious indeed. But we'll see. I think Russia won't interfere. Not now at least.
And I sincerely hope Ukraine won't split up. It's the worst scenario. Yeah, their economics is in trouble now, but hope they'll cope.

I think the elections are rather important. Of course economic issues would affect them. But the new president will mean changes I think. Will it lean towards EU or Russia - we'll see.

I am talking very serious like another brick paved in the road to WW III. You also forgot about the IMF which are all up in this shit as well with over $15 Billion invested in the subjugation/oppression of the Ukraine. Mr. Yanukovich kindly declined a current offer from the IMF because the terms and conditions were to onerous. So we got the IMF/USA, EU, Russia fighting over Ukraine.

[Feoric]

At 2/21/14 10:26 AM, lapis wrote: If pluralism fails, then the country should be partitioned into a Ukrainian nation-state in the west and a Russo-Ukrainian state in the east and Crimea. The former can then join the Western institutions and the latter can join Putin's customs union. Good luck drawing a border between those states, though. I wonder if this is what the rioting fascists of Svoboda are aiming for.

I don't think this can be a viable option, considering the fact that eastern Ukraine is where all the heavy industry is, plus that's where Ukraine's only coastline is. A split would leave any potential Western EU state landlocked and dependent on agriculture exports. Western Ukraine is the poorest region of the country, and it's not a coincidence that the East is the most prosperous.

In other news, the Rada just voted to dismiss Yanukovich. Elections will be held on May 25.

[leanlifter1]

At 2/22/14 10:17 AM, Feoric wrote:

At 2/21/14 10:26 AM, lapis wrote: If pluralism fails, then the country should be partitioned into a Ukrainian nation-state in the west and a Russo-Ukrainian state in the east and Crimea. The former can then join the Western institutions and the latter can join Putin's customs union. Good luck drawing a border between those states, though. I wonder if this is what the rioting fascists of Svoboda are aiming for.

I don't think this can be a viable option, considering the fact that eastern Ukraine is where all the heavy industry is, plus that's where Ukraine's only coastline is. A split would leave any potential Western EU state landlocked and dependent on agriculture exports. Western Ukraine is the poorest region of the country, and it's not a coincidence that the East is the most prosperous.

In other news, the Rada just voted to dismiss Yanukovich. Elections will be held on May 25.

Yanukovich hit the mark when he stated that the west is to onerous in their dealings. Weather Ukraine takes money from the west or takes money from Russia the fact is the Ukraine needs money and Russia is offering the better deal.

[Feoric]

At 2/22/14 10:23 AM, leanlifter1 wrote: Yanukovich hit the mark when he stated that the west is to onerous in their dealings. Weather Ukraine takes money from the west or takes money from Russia the fact is the Ukraine needs money and Russia is offering the better deal.

There's no fucking difference. Russia's reserves are rapidly being sucked dry or outright stolen, on top of having an economy that's energy dependent. Ukraine is going to be dependent on Russia for loans, and then IMF loans during a crisis. There continues to be no serious proposals from either side to actually improve Ukraine's economy for the long term.

[lapis]

At 2/22/14 09:57 AM, leanlifter1 wrote:

I am willing to entertain the idea that, say, the CIA provided logistical and/or financial support for not just the mainstream opposition but even the more militant factions among the protesters, knowing full well that their shananigans could lead to at least a couple dozen casualties. It would make sense, since the country is pretty much divided anyway so this gives the US an opportunity to wrest a strategically important country out of Russia's grip with minimal effort. Besides, it could be a tool to put pressure on Russia over Syria. But I'm pretty sure that that's how far US involvement in this situation would go. This has absolutely nothing to do with the dollar. Every country in the history of mankind has looked after its interests, and the US is no different: the only relationship between propping up the petrodollar and American involvement in Ukraine is that both are or could be part of US strategy to at least maintain its geopolitical position. That's it. The dollar does not deserve to be mentioned further in this context. And the IMF is an institution with its own interests, not always necessarily aligning with those of the US.

[lapis]

At 2/22/14 10:17 AM, Feoric wrote: I don't think this can be a viable option, considering the fact that eastern Ukraine is where all the heavy industry is, plus that's where Ukraine's only coastline is. A split would leave any potential Western EU state landlocked and dependent on agriculture exports. Western Ukraine is the poorest region of the country, and it's not a coincidence that the East is the most prosperous.

Right, but there are more landlocked countries in the EU that are doing fine. I think the crux is that without Yanukovych and his cronies running the show, the western Ukrainie can make progress fighting corruption (which is a requirement for EU membership anyway) which would attract foreign (Western) investment and could allow the region to move away from agriculture. I personally also prefer pluralism and a single Ukrainian state, but I also believe that one could make the case that the western part would be better off cutting off the dead weight of the eastern Ukraine's outdated and Russian-supported industry and the associated oligarchs whose interests are protected by Yanukovych and his Party of Regions.

[Feoric]

The CIA does not provide support to every violent protest in the entire world, jesus christ.

[lapis]

At 2/22/14 10:42 AM, Feoric wrote: The CIA does not provide support to every violent protest in the entire world, jesus christ.

Right, they would never support a protest that could bring a country into the USA's sphere of influence with minimal effort despite having the capacity and despite the FSB meddling in Ukrainian politics as well because they're such morally upstanding individuals.

[lapis]

At 2/22/14 10:45 AM, lapis wrote: the FSB meddling in Ukrainian politics

*SVR