Is Nk Paving The Way For Ww3?

[fmn335]

Just getting worried, like its been back and fourth when it comes to it in my mind. If China owns them and America sends a nuke their way then would China attack U.S.A? Most of our stuff comes from China so would they be a tough foe?

Just getting worried about this whole NK stuff, so is North Korea paving the way for global war?

I hate war.... except in storys (video games, movies, books, etc.).

[Warforger]

Not really. China has nothing to gain from going to war with America and vice versa. NK is crazy and the extent to which China has influence over the regime is questionable. Keep in mind North Korea has been doing this kind of thing since the 90's after the fall of the Soviet Union signaled the crushing of the remainder of the North Korean economy (NK wasn't as horrible as it is now then because of subsidies by the USSR, but for a Communist state it is still rather pitiful considering its progress in developing infrastructure, which is something that Communist states Post-WWII excelled at). At this point even Marxism has been practically dropped from North Korea (yes, Karl Marx is an unknown name in North Korea, Kim Sung Il is proclaimed the originator) so they don't want a war, what the government wants is survival. And indeed even China, South Korea and America want the regime to go on because the alternative would be devastating for the aforementioned parties. South Korea's economy isn't strong enough to build up North Korea. To put this in perspective Germany was divided by East and West, East Germany at least built up alot of infrastructure and was doing well for a Communist state, yet it still did not match West Germany, which built up one of the largest economies in the world. So when they were unified again there wasn't too much modernization that West Germany could not handle. North Korea on the other hand has been focusing more on remaining in power rather than seriously developing the country, we've all seen the satellite photograph of North Korea with its lack of electricity nationwide. South Korea's economy likewise did not take off until the late 80's and it's not one of the largest economies in the world, it has a great economy but it lacks the size that West Germany had. The amount of infrastructure that needs to be built is tremendous. Of course the collapse of North Korean authorities will also lead to many more refugee's, who of course will flee to South Korea and China, neither of which want to deal with that many refugee's.

In the short run nothing will happen, but it's great to think back to history what happened in similar cases. After the Napoleonic wars Britain could not imagine Prussia (main predecessor to Germany) to become its main rival and as the century progressed trade built up and Prussia unified the German states to form the German empire, and it developed its economy to one of the strongest in the world. Thus China is probably building its way up to there. This is of course where America placed its gambit, Clinton back in the 90's signed a new trade agreement with China to open up trade, this is where you got this flood of outsourced labor and the whole "Made in China" movement. Clinton did this on the idea that this will create new markets for American goods, and thus will allow America to spread its ideals and force the government of China to accept democracy and Western values in government. This was also the early days of the internet, another hope that China would open up. So far that hasn't worked, the Chinese Middle Class has grown and it does not care that much about the oppressive government. The economic growth has left them satisfied. But overall with the build up of Nuclear weapons even testing itself produces terrible effects on the health of people not just near the blast area but those effected by the fallout which could in fact went from Arizona up into Maine, Canada and Mexico. Those nuclear weapons were baby's toys in comparison to the modern ones, where each nuclear warhead contains 6 nuclear bombs each of which are much more powerful than the ones dropped on Japan.

[Ericho]

The bad news is that the new North Korean leader doesn't seem to be much better than the previous one. The good news is that he isn't worse than the old one. While the old one was bad, he never was able to declare nuclear war. I remember this one time NK did send a nuke, but it never really went anywhere. He has plenty of his own people to suppress and kill.

[Cootie]

China is so tired of North Korea's shit it isn't funny. And, America is a greater ally to China now than North Korea is. They would rather have our business any day. If North Korea tried to launch a nuke the entire world would descend upon them and destroy ever square inch of that shitty little kingdom.

[Th-e]

At 3/24/13 12:35 AM, Warforger wrote: And indeed even China, South Korea and America want the regime to go on because the alternative would be devastating for the aforementioned parties. South Korea's economy isn't strong enough to build up North Korea.

China wants North Korea because of the buffer zone. They may even tolerate a fully nuclear North to maintain that, even with North Korea selling nuclear technology to Iran and other rogue regimes. I am not sure they are getting serious about enforcing sanctions.

Also, is it really true that the consequences of ending the Kim regime would wreck our country and others economically? Given current circumstances, is it a better option to let the genocide continue? To let the regime slaughter infants born to prisoners with a stomp to the neck without remorse? To starve a majority of its population while its rulers pig out on caviar and prime meat? To beat children to death over a few pieces of corn, to pour acid over those who made the slightest criticism of the regime?

It's 1984 meets Nazi Germany!

Of course, if we did attack the North pre-emptively, China would likely still step in to protect the regime. They are probably the reason North Korea has been getting away with this for so long.

Do you think there could be a way to put an end to North Korea, reunify the nation, and still give China its buffer zone?

[TheMason]

At 3/24/13 04:44 PM, Cootie wrote: China is so tired of North Korea's shit it isn't funny. And, America is a greater ally to China now than North Korea is. They would rather have our business any day. If North Korea tried to launch a nuke the entire world would descend upon them and destroy ever square inch of that shitty little kingdom.

I'm not sure that China is upset enough with the DPRK to seriously push for the collapse of the regime.

We are not really an ally of the US; more like a trading partner. Taiwan remains a serious bone of military contention between us and them.

If the DPRK would launch a nuke at anyone, there would be a coalition but it would largely be a US operation.

At 3/24/13 10:53 PM, Th-e wrote: Also, is it really true that the consequences of ending the Kim regime would wreck our country and others economically? Given current circumstances, is it a better option to let the genocide continue? To let the regime slaughter infants born to prisoners with a stomp to the neck without remorse? To starve a majority of its population while its rulers pig out on caviar and prime meat? To beat children to death over a few pieces of corn, to pour acid over those who made the slightest criticism of the regime?

It would be a massive drain on the ROK (S. Korea) and Chinese economies. It would also be a major expense for the US government since we've been a huge part of what's going on the penninsula since after WWII we kindof have a moral obligation to rebuild the North.

Morally; we need to end the regime. These are not good people in charge. But it is going to be a very tough row to hoe. Basically there are two options:
Military
We invade either preemptively or in response to some DPRK provocation. This is likely to be very bloody. Seoul would have traditional, chemical, and incindiary artillery rain down on them and probably loose hundreds of thousands of lives in the first few days of war. Then there are their special forces, some armed with chemical and biological weapons, who would automatically attack US and ROK military targets. Most likely we're looking at about 24,000 US military that would end up dead or severely wounded within the first week of war.

Regime Collapse
At first most refugees would flood into China (fearful that conditions in the South are worse than currently in the DPRK). The country is far worse off than East Germany was at the tie of German reunification. We have to go in and rehabilitate people who are massively malnourished (the regime had to lower the minimum height for the Korean People's Army [KPA]to about 4foot 8inches), believe that the rest of the world has it worse than them, and have no concept of surviving without oppression.

Another concern is if the regime collapsed...would it be messy? Would Jong-Un lash out with everything he's got? Launching WMDs at ROK, Japan, and the US?

Of course, if we did attack the North pre-emptively, China would likely still step in to protect the regime. They are probably the reason North Korea has been getting away with this for so long.

Maybe. China no doubt are a big factor in the regime's survival. But this hasn't always been so. The USSR/Russia was their primary backer. But basically throughout the Cold War the DPRK would play the USSR and China off each other like a kid playing divorced parents off each other. Even still Russia has some limited aid they provide to the regime such as employing DPRK loggers in Siberia.

But if we did anything preemptively...we would have to make sure China and Russia were aminable.

[kakalxlax]

At 3/24/13 10:53 PM, Th-e wrote:

Do you think there could be a way to put an end to North Korea, reunify the nation, and still give China its buffer zone?

giving them thai transexuals as repay

[Satan]

I couldn't give two shits about what NK decide to do, if they start a war, China won't help their ass, they will basically be like "America buy our shit, if we turn on them, we will lose a lot of cash, nope, not worth it." and NK will be nuked to oblivion, I remain unfazed by the Koreans and their empty threats, nothing will happen, and even if it does, it won't effect us, too badly.

[wildfire4461]

Let that fat commie fuck throw the first grenade. That way they have no leg to stand on and we'll level their military in one night.

There's another way too. You can bet the CIA is keeping track of where he goes, and if they track him to somewhere all it would take is a well placed cruise missile to take the pig out.

[TracyJacksonTAW]

Of course, when we look at the military differential between the US/UN and NK....we will know right away that any attack by NK is more or less a suicide. However, the military and the leadership inside NK do not think so. So with this dangerous thinking, NK may think it can at least capture South Korea and force the UN (and primarily, the US) to follow some of its demand.

With this idea, NK could potentially start a war with SK...even though NK realistically can't win it. With KJU at the seat of power, we don't know what they are thinking of...which make NK dangerous. The military of NK cannot match the rest of the world's forces, but the danger of uncertainty make them powerful.

I've seen some news that NK is putting its missiles on standby mode, and is ramping up its military response teams exponentially...so something may be coming, whether we believe NK will act sooner or later is the question.

[Th-e]

I saw an article somewhere that suggests that Kim Jong Un may have backed himself into a corner, and that war may be inevitable as a result.

Right now, he is sending threat (after threat)100 against America, S. Korea, Japan, etc. (The 100 is a multiplication factor, as opposed to saying "after threat" 100 times in a row and spamming the post with it). If he simply keeps on going with threats, he will be perceived as all talk and will lose his "support" and "respect" from the people. His regime would become vulnerable from within. The same thing could happen if he simply backed down.

He might just have to put his money where his mouth is, even if it is a suicidal move.

[TheMason]

At 3/28/13 08:58 PM, TracyJacksonTAW wrote: Of course, when we look at the military differential between the US/UN and NK....we will know right away that any attack by NK is more or less a suicide.

At 3/28/13 09:27 PM, Th-e wrote:

He might just have to put his money where his mouth is, even if it is a suicidal move.

You have to stop thinking like Westerners.

Asians are very concerned with the concept of 'saving face'. Backed into a corner and with no chance of his regime surviving: Kim may choose to go all out and strike at SK and US forces there (USFK) with everything he's got conventionally as well as chemical and biological warfare. He'll probably also strike at Japan and attempt long-range missile launches against the US.

I am divided on who will get the nukes...either the US or Japan.

What it would be a muder-suicide ritual (much like a spree shooter in the West) played out on the international stage.

At 3/28/13 08:13 PM, Satan wrote: I couldn't give two shits about what NK decide to do, if they start a war, China won't help their ass, they will basically be like "America buy our shit, if we turn on them, we will lose a lot of cash, nope, not worth it." and NK will be nuked to oblivion, I remain unfazed by the Koreans and their empty threats, nothing will happen, and even if it does, it won't effect us, too badly.

It is hard to say what China would do. China has shown that domestic pressures matter more to them than that applied by the international community. They trade with Japan...but to keep the public rallying around the flag during economic hard-times...Beijing has been rattling the saber against Japan.

The flood of NK refugees into China following an invasion or regime collapse would be a HUGE burden on their fragile economy and cause domestic disharmony. They havea definite interest in maintaining the status quo in Pyongyang. They may decide NK refugees and collapse pose a bigger threat to Beijing than pissing off the US.

The NK military has a three stage rocket capable of hitting the mid-West. Also, their nuclear warheads are getting smaller faster than we have thought they were capable of. So yeah...we could have a mushroom cloud over Missouri. And that would be bad, M'kay?

[Light]

At 3/29/13 03:08 PM, TheMason wrote:
The NK military has a three stage rocket capable of hitting the mid-West. Also, their nuclear warheads are getting smaller faster than we have thought they were capable of. So yeah...we could have a mushroom cloud over Missouri. And that would be bad, M'kay?

I highly doubt they'll be able to strike any targets on the U.S. mainland.

But they may be able to strike U.S. military bases in Guam and other pacific islands that aren't too far from North Korea, which is worrying.

[Warforger]

At 3/29/13 10:43 PM, RightWingGamer wrote: I don't think anyone's worried about the DPRK winning a war, or even putting a dent in the enormous American war machine.

Of course no one is, what they're worried about is the carnage of such a war.

China's smart enough to let them fail on their own. Hell, they may even join us in marching on Pyongyang.

China totally wants all those refugee's to flood onto their border.

But here's the part that should have people worried. North Korean missiles might be able to reach the mainland US, but I don't really see why they'd bother, given the sheer wealth of other targets in their area.

That's at most, in reality they probably won't get close because they're probably very low quality.

Seoul, Tokyo, Guam, hell, even Beijing could feasibly be destroyed. KJU might even opt to nuke his own territory as part of a scorched earth policy. That's an awful lot of people who could be murdered by this little man's Napoleon complex.

How does he have a Napoleon complex? We don't know him well enough to make such a judgement.

If we're going to attack the DPRK, we need to do so in a way that doesn't allow for any possibility of nuclear retaliation.

[wildfire4461]

I was reading the comments on this Yahoo story about it, and someone came up with the real reason Kim is doing this (top comment too):

"Ok so we're not at war, just so everybody knows. Ever since Hostess went out of business it's been nothing but threats from this guy."

[Th-e]

At 3/30/13 12:36 AM, wildfire4461 wrote: I was reading the comments on this Yahoo story about it, and someone came up with the real reason Kim is doing this (top comment too):

"Ok so we're not at war, just so everybody knows. Ever since Hostess went out of business it's been nothing but threats from this guy."

Ummm...do you think the mods will allow us to do a thread in General about North Korea from a joking standpoint? Serious threads will get locked with a redirect here, of course.

Still, I wonder if this is something that would work well in The Onion? Kim Jong Un will NEVER, EVER eat a Little Debbie Cloud Cake!!!

Anyway, let's get back to seriousness here...

[TheMason]

At 3/29/13 07:18 PM, Light wrote:

At 3/29/13 03:08 PM, TheMason wrote: The NK military has a three stage rocket capable of hitting the mid-West. Also, their nuclear warheads are getting smaller faster than we have thought they were capable of. So yeah...we could have a mushroom cloud over Missouri. And that would be bad, M'kay?

I highly doubt they'll be able to strike any targets on the U.S. mainland.

It's a 50/50 shot. In the last few years we've been seeing some technology transfers between the DPRK and Iran. This could mean that they are getting Russian tech through backdoor channels.

But we've actually had concerns that the Tae Po-Dong II could reach the Mid-West since about 2002.

To say that you highly doubt their capability to do something or not do something is just giving yourself a false sense of security.

Now, what is more credible would be to say that it is highly likely they don't have that many and that makes it more likely that our missile defense system will be able to screen incoming DPRK missiles.

But they may be able to strike U.S. military bases in Guam and other pacific islands that aren't too far from North Korea, which is worrying.

They would mostly target the 28K servicemembers (mostly Army & Air Force) in SK. If they attacked US bases outside of Korea and not the US mainland...they would target Hawaii.

[Camarohusky]

At 3/30/13 08:08 AM, TheMason wrote: They would mostly target the 28K servicemembers (mostly Army & Air Force) in SK. If they attacked US bases outside of Korea and not the US mainland...they would target Hawaii.

Yokosuka, Atsugi, Yokohama?

[Light]

At 3/30/13 08:08 AM, TheMason wrote:

At 3/29/13 07:18 PM, Light wrote:

At 3/29/13 03:08 PM, TheMason wrote: The NK military has a three stage rocket capable of hitting the mid-West. Also, their nuclear warheads are getting smaller faster than we have thought they were capable of. So yeah...we could have a mushroom cloud over Missouri. And that would be bad, M'kay?

I highly doubt they'll be able to strike any targets on the U.S. mainland.

It's a 50/50 shot. In the last few years we've been seeing some technology transfers between the DPRK and Iran. This could mean that they are getting Russian tech through backdoor channels.

Yikes.

But we've actually had concerns that the Tae Po-Dong II could reach the Mid-West since about 2002.

Interesting.

To say that you highly doubt their capability to do something or not do something is just giving yourself a false sense of security.

I don't think it's a false sense of security.

The sources I've been consulting on the matter just seem to disagree with the sources you're consulting. I respectfully disagree and believe that, as of this moment, and perhaps for several more years, North Korea won't have much of a chance to hit the targets they've designated, which unfortunately include my city of residence.

Now, what is more credible would be to say that it is highly likely they don't have that many and that makes it more likely that our missile defense system will be able to screen incoming DPRK missiles.

That is pretty likely.

But they may be able to strike U.S. military bases in Guam and other pacific islands that aren't too far from North Korea, which is worrying.

They would mostly target the 28K servicemembers (mostly Army & Air Force) in SK. If they attacked US bases outside of Korea and not the US mainland...they would target Hawaii.

Just curious, how vulnerable is Hawaii?

[Nor]

Not even, they are idiots, there ties are not endless and thus wont result in that but it is a cause for concern.

[tyler2513]

I think North Korea's just putting an a show in what appears to be a never ending stand-off between the U.S against North Korea. My only primary concerns is NK attacking the South or if the U.S does attack because of some provocation from the North then this will put an enormous strain on the U.S' financial troubles even more.

[TheMason]

At 3/30/13 04:49 PM, Light wrote: I don't think it's a false sense of security.

The sources I've been consulting on the matter just seem to disagree with the sources you're consulting. I respectfully disagree and believe that, as of this moment, and perhaps for several more years, North Korea won't have much of a chance to hit the targets they've designated, which unfortunately include my city of residence.

I've read a few things from Jane's Defense contributors that highly doubt they have that capability.

However, we are citing the threat of some of their missiles as cause for beefing up our missile defense shield. Now China does not like this idea. Now, the people at Jane's thinks it is a smoke screen to build up our defenses against China. But I'm not entirely convinced. If we were talking about Bush or either Clinton as president...this would make sense.

But not with Obama. He has shown an unwillingness to press these sort of issues (pulling the shield out of Poland due to Russian pressure). I simply think that based upon his past performance Obama is not the type to be confrontational. But I could be wrong on this account.

Also, as far back as 2002 the State Dept was issuing reports on WMD and missile tech proliferation that included the assessment that the TPD-2 could be capable of hitting as far East as the Mississippi. Then (I want to say around '04-'06) Rumsfeld spoke of NK saying that we may not know their capability until there's a mushroom cloud over Tokyo, Hawaii, or the US.

When they put a satellite into orbit, the did so by using a ICBM.

They would mostly target the 28K servicemembers (mostly Army & Air Force) in SK. If they attacked US bases outside of Korea and not the US mainland...they would target Hawaii.

Just curious, how vulnerable is Hawaii?

Jane's doesn't seem to think Hawaii is all that vulnerable. But, I don't think they know what the US government knows. Whereas I think the vulnerability of the mainlain as 60/40 to 50/50...I think the vulnerability of Hawaii is 40/60 to 70/30.

[orangebomb]

At 3/30/13 11:04 AM, Camarohusky wrote:

At 3/30/13 08:08 AM, TheMason wrote: They would mostly target the 28K servicemembers (mostly Army & Air Force) in SK. If they attacked US bases outside of Korea and not the US mainland...they would target Hawaii.

Yokosuka, Atsugi, Yokohama?

It's also possible that they would attack Okinawa and Nagasaki as well, considering that they do have U.S. bases as well with sizable amount of Marine and Naval personnel, and possibly an air base as well. While they are more spread out in Japan, it's possible that North Korea could attack a base in Japan to ward off any invasion attempt by sea, if only for a few days.

[Fim]

I remember watching a Vice doc on NK, and it just underlined the fact that they are really NOT a threat to any extent, they can't afford to keep half their population out of poverty, let alone afford a full scale war with arguably the biggest military force on the planet (and that's what it would entale if they attacked the south btw). Their economy and infrastructure has hardly moved on in 60 years.

[TheMason]

At 4/1/13 02:53 AM, Fim wrote: I remember watching a Vice doc on NK, and it just underlined the fact that they are really NOT a threat to any extent, they can't afford to keep half their population out of poverty, let alone afford a full scale war with arguably the biggest military force on the planet (and that's what it would entale if they attacked the south btw). Their economy and infrastructure has hardly moved on in 60 years.

The problem here is you're still looking at the threat through a Western lense. The ability to keep their population out of poverty is something that would effect a modern, developed country from being a threat. However, the DPRK is more like a feudal system (in fact, many scholars describe Juche and the regime as feudal communism). In short: the misery of the population is of little concern to the Kims (despite their socialist rhetoric).

Check out their propaganda. Their population is told DPRK aid workers are coming to the US to hand out coffee (that isn't made with snow) and cakes! This is one of the reasons that when North Koreans defect...they defect to China. In interviews and the literature, the vast majority of refugees cite the belief that life is worse in the ROK than in the DPRK as why they choose not to try to get to SK after sneaking into China.

Also, they indoctrinate their children from an early age to kill Americans.

So while I do not think military conflict is inevitable...I do not think it is wise to be dismissive because of the improvished state of their population or their economic infrastructure. Afterall, if there is one thing we can be sure of about Pyongyang is that the regime does not give a shit for anyone who is not named Kim.

[Ononymous]

In any serious war between North Korea and the U.S, North Korea would be decimated in 48 hours or so.

[TheMason]

At 3/31/13 11:33 PM, orangebomb wrote:

At 3/30/13 11:04 AM, Camarohusky wrote:

At 3/30/13 08:08 AM, TheMason wrote: They would mostly target the 28K servicemembers (mostly Army & Air Force) in SK. If they attacked US bases outside of Korea and not the US mainland...they would target Hawaii.

Yokosuka, Atsugi, Yokohama?

It's also possible that they would attack Okinawa and Nagasaki...

Hawaii is the juicier target in terms of military value. Also, it is a US State.

What would make the targets you two suggested attractive is they could strike at two hated enemies at once. But my feel is Hawaii is the prize.

[kakalxlax]

At 4/1/13 08:22 AM, TheMason wrote:

Check out their propaganda.

Also, they indoctrinate their children from an early age to kill Americans.

like all regimes with their brainwashing styles

[TheMason]

At 4/1/13 11:23 AM, kakalxlax wrote:
like all regimes with their brainwashing styles

If you're trying to draw a moral equivalance between the US and the DPRK...the point fails. I can post anything I want here or on Youtube. I can read/watch news from the UK, Russia, al Jazeera, China, SK, Japan, etc, etc, etc...even news from the DPRK itself.

On the other hand...when you tour the DMZ you'll see jammers aimed at keeping outside information from getting into the DPRK. In the North, TVs and radio tuners are set to only state channels with heavy penalties for altering your device.

[Camarohusky]

At 4/1/13 10:23 AM, TheMason wrote: Hawaii is the juicier target in terms of military value. Also, it is a US State.

Well, Atsugi and Yokohama represent the biggest Non-South Korean strategic targets. The Carrier based squadrons at Atsugi and the carriers and destroyers at Yokohama represent the US' quick strike forces in East Asia.

Now, Hawaii definitely has a bigger overall base, but the mobilization time of the Japanese based carriers makes them damn near invaluable for the US in any action on the Korean penninsula. I would also give Hawaii extra points for morale and psychological value, but in trms of pure military value the Naval bases in Japan are far more important for a sneak strike.

Though, when I went to Atsugi, there was talk of relocating to an island in the pacific. Don't know if that happened yet, but if it has, Yokohama will be the only really valuable base in Japan.

I don't include Yokosuka and Okinawa as the Army isn't a quick strike force. It requires a heck of a lot of moblization, unlike the navy and any air forces.

What would make the targets you two suggested attractive is they could strike at two hated enemies at once. But my feel is Hawaii is the prize.

Hawaii is definitely the prize, but its military value (rather its ability to really obstruct NK military action) is far lower than the nearby naval bases and air stations in Japan.