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North Korea threatens to end the cease fire

All I can say is, "good." I can't imagine China getting involved if NK draws first blood. Once NK makes that fatal mistake, SK and its allies can waltz in, put that fat fucker's head in a pike in the middle of town square and hopefully SK's forces can eliminate the entire Kim family to prevent any future uprisings.

and then the long and crazy expensive task of bringing NK out of the stone age can commence.

Not good.

200,000,000 United States Allied citizens live within easy striking distance of NK. Would I love to see NK shut up and shut down? Absolutely. Am I willing to risk Japan, South Korea, and a ton of US soldiers to achieve that end? Absolutely not.

At 3/5/13 12:04 PM, Camarohusky wrote: Not good.

200,000,000 United States Allied citizens live within easy striking distance of NK. Would I love to see NK shut up and shut down? Absolutely. Am I willing to risk Japan, South Korea, and a ton of US soldiers to achieve that end? Absolutely not.

perhaps, but I think the war would end within a month. NK would struggle to defend its own borders, let alone find time to strike other countries, which would pull them into the war as well. NK would probably try to strike at US bases in some sort of surprise attack.

difference between WW2 and today is we have better monitoring equipment. the Japanese caught us by surprise in Pearl Harbor. If the NK air force were to mobilize, we would know about it and be able to get our superior airforce in the air to counter it.

The only think NK could possibly do is launch long range missiles at our bases in hopes that it actually lands somewhere in the base. Of course, the response would be the end of NK's government.

I don't think China would enter the war if NK started it. If they did they would lose their biggest trading partners and end up devolving back into a 3rd world nation.

From the article:

"North Korea threatened..."

Of course they did. They've done this before, and will do it again. It's hard to know what's actually going on in the country, obviously, but I'm comfortable with the theory that this is Kim Jong-Un proving himself to the senior military officials. Unless you subscribe to the theory that the senior military officials are the ones actually running the country. Either way, if I had a dollar for every time a war with NK was "imminent" I'd have a car elevator like Romney.

At 3/5/13 12:55 PM, Feoric wrote:

Of course they did. They've done this before, and will do it again. It's hard to know what's actually going on in the country, obviously, but I'm comfortable with the theory that this is Kim Jong-Un proving himself to the senior military officials.
Unless you subscribe to the theory that the senior military officials are the ones actually running the country. Either way, if I had a dollar for every time a war with NK was "imminent" I'd have a car elevator like Romney.

Actually, I do believe the military runs the country. the Kim family is just the puppet they use to give the leadership a recognizable face. How easy would it be for the military to march in and gun down the entire family? very. Problem is, the people are blindly loyal to the Kim family, not the military.

At 3/5/13 02:16 PM, Korriken wrote: the Kim family is just the puppet they use to give the leadership a recognizable face.

Well, virtually all senior military officials were anti-Japanese fighters that fought along side Kim Il-sung in Manchuria or Korean Soviets he met when he was in the Red Army. It's true that the Kim family always puts on a (often times bizarre) show and dance but they aren't the military's puppet by any means.

So much for Dennis Rodman's basketball diplomacy, not like that had a chance in hell of that working, considering Rodman's personality while he was in the NBA, and especially when he was with the Chicago Bulls in the mid 90s. At this point, it's irrelevant now considering this is another verbal threat from the North Korean leadership, and this time, it's seems like they're itching for a fight.

The North Koreans aren't exactly adept in modern warfare, but they still have those pesky nuclear weapons that they can use on anyone, which makes them extremely dangerous, but that's nothing we can't counter with intercepting missiles and the like. One thing I will say is that whichever side fires the first shot, expect China to back away from NK, and let them be the sacrificial lamb of a U.S. and South Korean led attack, because the last thing they want is to get dragged into a fight with their best economic partner.

At 3/5/13 08:59 PM, orangebomb wrote: So much for Dennis Rodman's basketball diplomacy, not like that had a chance in hell of that working, considering Rodman's personality while he was in the NBA, and especially when he was with the Chicago Bulls in the mid 90s.

Just another short marriage for the Rodman.

Let's just nuke them and get this over with.

I'm honestly quite eager to see North Korea get their ass handed to them. Many people say the two main problems with a war would be a) after removing all these dictators from power and crushing their peasant military the United States as usual would be obliged to help NK rebuild democracy and b) people think that just like in the Iraq War, once we remove the dictators an uprising among citizens and suicide bombers would emerge.

I don't think either of these will be a problem. After kicking their sorry asses many of the Asian countries would pitch in a lot more than they did for Afghanistan or Iraq, and China would especially help to establish good relations with the succeeding leaders of the nation. Also these people are hungry and starved, I doubt their in any serious condition to start an uprising after the current leaders are taken down, besides I don't think anyone loves fatass Jong-Un there anyway. It's time to free SK of being in constant fear of there Northern neighbour.

@ Feoric
In many ways I totally agree with you. After the fall of the USSR and as China has grown closer to the US; the financial support that the regime in Pyongyang relies upon to survive has largely started to dry up. So since the 1990s the Kim dynasty has learned that ratteling the saber is a good way to get powers like the US, ROK, and Japan to give them money and/or food aid.

It is almost a yearly occurrence when they get all pissy about joint US/ROK military exercises. So this is more of the same.

However, taking a long view of history on the penninsula you can see in the 1960s the DPRK actually fighting a low-level war along the DMZ. Also, there is much that is unknown about Jong-Un (despite 'Worm Diplomacy' by Dennis Rodman). Also, this is not trying to get food aid. This could be an attempt to foil attempts at sanctioning the regime in light of recent nuclear testing.

It is a thing of concern and should not be dismissed out of hand. On the other hand...we need to avoid running around like Chicken Little.

At 3/5/13 12:29 PM, Korriken wrote: perhaps, but I think the war would end within a month. NK would struggle to defend its own borders, let alone find time to strike other countries, which would pull them into the war as well. NK would probably try to strike at US bases in some sort of surprise attack.

Yeah...in 1950 MacArthur thought we would be home by Christmas. But a war in Korea would make Iraq and Afghanistan look easy. Here's how it would probably start:

* DPRK special forces already in the ROK would target American and ROK military targets with biological weapons. Once people get sick...they know it's time to strike.
* Seoul and the surrounding metropolis (up to 25 million souls) would be shelled by DPRK artillery.
* SCUD (possibly WMD tipped) attacks on military bases in ROK. Probable strikes on US territory such Hawaii and possibly even as far East as the Mississippi.

difference between WW2 and today is we have better monitoring equipment. the Japanese caught us by surprise in Pearl Harbor. If the NK air force were to mobilize, we would know about it and be able to get our superior airforce in the air to counter it.

Yes, we would be able to easily obtain air superiority. However, the main attack would be Theater Ballistic Missiles with some primative ICBMs.

And even with our superior monitoring equipment...we've been surprised by them numerous times before.

The only think NK could possibly do is launch long range missiles at our bases in hopes that it actually lands somewhere in the base. Of course, the response would be the end of NK's government.

I think Trey Parker and Matt Stone got it right in Team America. If the regime were to be truly threatened, or about to collapse, they would try to take out as many people as possible.

I don't think China would enter the war if NK started it. If they did they would lose their biggest trading partners and end up devolving back into a 3rd world nation.

While not as much of a mystery as the DPRK, China still thinks differently than we do. Recently they've been fomenting anti-Japanese sentiment and doing their own saber rattling. For a good insight into the Chinese way of thought read China: Fragile Superpower by Susan Shirk.

Basically, Beijing will act irrationally to preserve power if domestic threats to the regime exist.

I wonder when China is finally going to just bitch slap their toddler whenever they throw a tantrum

At 3/6/13 10:32 PM, RacistBassist wrote: I wonder when China is finally going to just bitch slap their toddler whenever they throw a tantrum

You know what's better than bitch slapping a toddler? Completely ignoring them. Bitch slapping revs them up and gives them what they want: attnetion. Ignoring them robs them of that fuel.

At 3/6/13 03:28 PM, tyler2513 wrote: I'm honestly quite eager to see North Korea get their ass handed to them. Many people say the two main problems with a war would be a) after removing all these dictators from power and crushing their peasant military the United States as usual would be obliged to help NK rebuild democracy and b) people think that just like in the Iraq War, once we remove the dictators an uprising among citizens and suicide bombers would emerge.

I don't think either of these will be a problem. After kicking their sorry asses many of the Asian countries would pitch in a lot more than they did for Afghanistan or Iraq, and China would especially help to establish good relations with the succeeding leaders of the nation. Also these people are hungry and starved, I doubt their in any serious condition to start an uprising after the current leaders are taken down, besides I don't think anyone loves fatass Jong-Un there anyway. It's time to free SK of being in constant fear of there Northern neighbour.

The DPRK is Plato's Allegory of the Cave come to life. The people there (with the possible exception of those in the North along the Yalu River that can see the lights of China) are cut-off from the outside world. They are told that the DPRK is the best, richest, most advanced country on the planet. They are raised to revere the Kim family and despise Americans. Every facet of life in the country is controlled by the government.

Yes they are starved, but this also means that dying is a relief. They will have the will to fight, and their military is capable of operating on far less food than ours.

As for US involvement post-war...

A more apt event to study would be the reunification of West and East Germany. That was bad enough meshing low-tech industry, sub-par schools, and a Soviet system with a democratic/capitalistic system. In the case of reunifying the Koreas you have several other issues:

* China does not want the US or a US ally on their border. So post-war they may loathe to accept a reunified Korea...the status quo suits them.
* There would be a refugee crisis unlike anything people living today have ever experienced.
* You have a population far more brainwashed than the East Germans who will likely resist change.
* Other Asian countries will put the onus on the US, S. Korea and Japan. So yes...we will be expected to re-build the DPRK even if it reunites with S. Korea.

At 3/6/13 10:41 PM, Camarohusky wrote:

You know what's better than bitch slapping a toddler? Completely ignoring them. Bitch slapping revs them up and gives them what they want: attnetion. Ignoring them robs them of that fuel.

except you're not dealing with a toddler, you're dealing with a toddler who thinks its a god. Then again, perhaps simply ignoring it might be just what you need to provoke it.

Either way I think it would be best if SK managed to provoke NK ***BEFORE*** they actually develop a working nuclear weapon because they're just the ones crazy enough to actually use it looks like their defeat is inevitable.

When, at least, your defeat and demise seem to be inevitable, nothing matters anymore, you're going to die, so you may as well do what you can to kill as many people as you can and leave your mark in the history books. launch the nuke.

My mother is currently serving as a legal adviser to the US Senate Foreign Committee, and she said the incident is more real than ever. I think she was saying a few nights ago about how the NKers have seriously stepped up military activities these last few days, and there's a bunch of actions going on around their nuclear facilities lately. I do hope nothing happen, as it can't be good either way.

speaking of activity near nuclear sites...

To me, it raises the question of whether Kim "Fat Bastard" Jong Un in in the charge, or the military's top general(s) are in charge. If Fat Bastard is truly in charge, provoking the ego driven little prick into doing something stupid would be simple. If the military is in charge, then about all we're gonna get is more bluster because those in the higher rungs in the NK military know they can't win a fight against SK and the USA.

âEUoeSince the United States is about to ignite a nuclear war, we will be exercising our right to preemptive nuclear attack against the headquarters of the aggressor in order to protect our supreme interest,âEU the NorthâEUTMs foreign ministry spokesman said in a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency.

My basic understanding of this makes me think they're talking about D.C. I'll be shocked if war isn't declared in the next few days and North Korea will be bombed into Mall of Americas new parking lot.

At 3/7/13 09:43 AM, Prinzy2 wrote: âEUoeSince the United States is about to ignite a nuclear war, we will be exercising our right to preemptive nuclear attack against the headquarters of the aggressor in order to protect our supreme interest,âEU the NorthâEUTMs foreign ministry spokesman said in a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency.

My basic understanding of this makes me think they're talking about D.C. I'll be shocked if war isn't declared in the next few days and North Korea will be bombed into Mall of Americas new parking lot.

I'll put it like this, I doubt NK has the ability to put a nuclear warhead on a rocket and actually get it to where they want it to go. They'd have to load it on a bomber and drop it. As I seriously doubt NK has much in the way of stealth technology, and no aircraft carrier to get a bomber within range of hitting DC, I'd say they're full of shit.

If they tried to fly a bomber over SK, It'd get blown out of the sky, given they still rely on old chinese and soviet aircraft, which can't even hope to compete with the US's airforce.

I'm not a fan of war, but that fight wouldn't last long before Fat Bastard begs for forgiveness, in which I would hope Obama has the balls to say, "Oh hell no, you're going down, Fat Bastard!" I'm sure China would be pissy about NK being taken over by SK, but in the end, the removal of the Kim dynasty would ultimately be a good thing for NK.

that would be one hell of an expensive cleanup though.

I don't think NK can win any war if they start one right now. But that does not mean they won't star one for some dumb reason.

At 3/6/13 10:49 PM, TheMason wrote: Yes they are starved, but this also means that dying is a relief. They will have the will to fight, and their military is capable of operating on far less food than ours.

Yes, but since the Government is quite tight over in North Korea I doubt the public could ever get their hands on any weapons or organize any sort of system like the Syrian Freedom Fighters have done. Massive riots is about the best they could do, and I bet once they saw the opportunity of actually BEING FED they'd give in.

* China does not want the US or a US ally on their border. So post-war they may loathe to accept a reunified Korea...the status quo suits them.

As much as China will despise this there facing such pressure from the international community there almost certain to give in. They've already severely weakened ties with DPRK and from all the previous sanctions being placed on them, as well as the new round being put on them currently they will no longer be any use to China as they will have not much to offer trading wise.

* There would be a refugee crisis unlike anything people living today have ever experienced.

I guess I never thought to much about refugees in this sense. This could be a reason Russia would severely oppose an intervention as they do share a small border.

* You have a population far more brainwashed than the East Germans who will likely resist change.

I agree, but once again I think once the idea of actually having food on their plates becomes a possibility I think they will give in.

* Other Asian countries will put the onus on the US, S. Korea and Japan. So yes...we will be expected to re-build the DPRK even if it reunites with S. Korea.

We will definitely have to do our share, but with all the help from the Asian countries it shouldn't be nearly as costly as the recent military interventions the States has been involved in.

Usually I would just say that the north is throwing its monthly fit. But they seem to be pushing things a little more then usual.

At 3/5/13 10:55 PM, Dimitrilium wrote: Let's just nuke them and get this over with.

;;;
gotta be the dumbest comment in the thread !

THere are millions of iunncent people over there, just becasue a minority of eletists warmongers are jumping up & down like a bunch of children who everyone are tired of listening too ...is no reason to kill so many people who happen to unhappily live in the same geographic area .

What I find encouraging is that China is getting tired of the BS & Russia has had enough of them.

but just because your retarded cousin is trying to raise trouble on your street is no reason to blow up the city !

At 3/7/13 03:13 PM, tyler2513 wrote: Yes, but since the Government is quite tight over in North Korea I doubt the public could ever get their hands on any weapons or organize any sort of system like the Syrian Freedom Fighters have done. Massive riots is about the best they could do, and I bet once they saw the opportunity of actually BEING FED they'd give in.

Your first assumption is totally wrong. The Korean People's Army (KPA) is the world's fourth largest army in terms of it's active component. However, it's reserve (ie: peasants who'll be given a rifle in the event of war) is the world's LARGEST reserve force with about 8.2-8.4 million 'soldiers'. Furthermore, their tactics are based upon lessons learned from anti-Colonial fighting against the Japanese (1920s to 1945), the first Korean War (1950-53), The Second Korean War (1966-69ish...also called the Korean DMZ conflict), as well as lessons observed in Vietnam, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the Global War on Terrorism.

A major part of their military doctrine is partisan/guerilla warfare.

As for the second part: stop thinking like and American and/or Westerner. These people do not think or rationalize like we do. And no...this is not me being racist but rather recognizing cultural differences (afterall, I lived in Korea and am very well-read on this topic). The people are brainwashed against the US and S. Korea. This is one of the reason many defectors only plan on going to China...because they are afraid that things are worsein the South. Yes, it is easier to cross a river than a 2.5mile wide mine field along the most heavily patroled border on the planet...but most see their future in China...not in the US' colonial puppet state that is S. Korea.

What does this have to do with not accepting food hand-outs? Chances are they will be told that the food is poisoned or some other lie to make people not take it.

* China does not want the US or a US ally on their border. So post-war they may loathe to accept a reunified Korea...the status quo suits them.

As much as China will despise this there facing such pressure from the international community there almost certain to give in. They've already severely weakened ties with DPRK and from all the previous sanctions being placed on them, as well as the new round being put on them currently they will no longer be any use to China as they will have not much to offer trading wise.

Again, stop thinking about what we in the US & the West think of as 'rational'. For Beijing the number one priority is keeping people happy on the domestic front. Having the US on their border may make people nervous. Also, you've got to remember that right now the DPRK is China's version of Mexico: every year there is a flood of illegal immigrants. Many of the women are sold into sexual slavery (that Korean on the web cam may actually be a DPRK refugee sold into bondage). This takes jobs and government resources from the people.

They'll only bend or go with international pressure/flow/etc so long as it suits them. Beyond that...they just don't give a fuck.

* There would be a refugee crisis unlike anything people living today have ever experienced.

I guess I never thought to much about refugees in this sense. This could be a reason Russia would severely oppose an intervention as they do share a small border.

More than the boarder...you've got history. The USSR was responsible (just as the US is/was) for the split after WWII and Japanese rule. They will face international pressure to help the refugees.

* You have a population far more brainwashed than the East Germans who will likely resist change.

I agree, but once again I think once the idea of actually having food on their plates becomes a possibility I think they will give in.

It will take a lot. Did you read the Wiki article on the Allegory of the Cave? It is going to take a lot to deprogram some of these people.

* Other Asian countries will put the onus on the US, S. Korea and Japan. So yes...we will be expected to re-build the DPRK even if it reunites with S. Korea.

We will definitely have to do our share, but with all the help from the Asian countries it shouldn't be nearly as costly as the recent military interventions the States has been involved in.

It is going to be alot more costly. In Iraq we took care to minimize collateral damage, so we did not start with nothing when it came time to rebuild. In Afghanistan we started with nothing...but with very little incentive to really build it up...plus we had a broad coalition interested in helping us. In the DPRK, we'll be starting with nothing. Factory managers along the Yalu river have been selling off equipment and even metal buildings to Chinese scrappers. Add to that manufacturing and civil infrastructure that was Soviet in origin and ancient when Germany reunified in the early 1990s...it is going to be a mess.

In the case of rebuilding the DPRK, the cost is mainly going to fall to: US, Russia, China, Japan, and S. Korea. As the world's largest economy...much of the burden is going to fall to us. Afterall, we are partly responsible for breaking it so now we own it. For example, we still catch flak for the bombing of the Sui-Ho dam along the Yalu. Many will be trying to get reparations out of us.

Third thing going against us: the cost of rebuilding in Iraq and Afghanistan and our treasury has felt the burden. So we're starting out weaker going into a situation far more expensive with less.

At 3/7/13 10:54 AM, Korriken wrote: I'll put it like this, I doubt NK has the ability to put a nuclear warhead on a rocket and actually get it to where they want it to go. They'd have to load it on a bomber and drop it. As I seriously doubt NK has much in the way of stealth technology, and no aircraft carrier to get a bomber within range of hitting DC, I'd say they're full of shit.

The problem is the DPRK is very good at working in secret. Much of their military production has gone underground post-Korean War. (Probably has to do with MacArthur wanting to turn it into a radioactive, glass parking lot.) We quite simply do not know what their capabilities are. Furthermore, they do not test military equipment like we do (ie: spend years on computer simulation, then tests in laboratories, then test flights, then operational use). A mushroom cloud over the West or Midwest may be first strike and test all in one of a completed system.

If they tried to fly a bomber over SK, It'd get blown out of the sky, given they still rely on old chinese and soviet aircraft, which can't even hope to compete with the US's airforce.

No...no they cannot. You are right about that.

I'm not a fan of war, but that fight wouldn't last long before Fat Bastard begs for forgiveness, in which I would hope Obama has the balls to say, "Oh hell no, you're going down, Fat Bastard!" I'm sure China would be pissy about NK being taken over by SK, but in the end, the removal of the Kim dynasty would ultimately be a good thing for NK.

that would be one hell of an expensive cleanup though.

We could literally see millions of S. Korean civilian dead before the first week of fighting is over. In the first three days will we probably have more US military dead than the entire 12 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Not to mention the thousands of American civilians over there.

The cost of blood will be far more than the cost of treasure.

At 3/7/13 07:38 PM, TheMason wrote: We could literally see millions of S. Korean civilian dead before the first week of fighting is over. In the first three days will we probably have more US military dead than the entire 12 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Not to mention the thousands of American civilians over there.

The cost of blood will be far more than the cost of treasure.

I know you're likely right about this. President Park likely knows this as well, as does Obama and President Xi. Kim has to know he couldn't win an outright conflict against the west, and so is likely assuming support from China. Yet the latest round of sanctions just passed the UN with China's support (token though it may be). One wonders whether China will, on it's own initiative, covertly propagate a regime change if the North get's too brazen in it's anti-west stance. They have as much or more to lose than the US in any military conflict in the peninsula.

Like you said, an American proxy/colony on its border would make a lot of people nervous, so China has a vested interest in keeping N Korea out of trouble. If push comes to shove, I wonder if China won't just take the country over by proxy and put up a puppet government it can control more easily. I wonder tangentially if the people of N. Korea would even notice, aside from the "loss" of Dear Leader (or whatever Kim's nom de schmooze is).

China already knows that it is in dangerous diplomatic territory with the US over the Islands north of Japan. Any further strife in the region could be disastrous for their economy. Can you imagine the worldwide economic tectonics if failing relations began to funnel manufacturing out of China back to the US or into India? China could see it's artificial economic growth (which Xi himself mentioned in his inaugural address was a problem that needed solving) disappear, simultaneously upsetting the populace and weakening it globally with respect to India, Russia and South America. I think their support of the latest round of UN sanctions is their (not-so-) tacit acknowledgement of this, and their first real attempt to mollify the west, while chastising the NK government.

Granted, that provoked the Nuke comments, but I think NK isn't quite sure how to deal with Daddy putting his foot down and is having a bit of a temper tantrum. I forsee a smack to the bottom and getting sent to their room by China within the next few weeks.

But that's just the view of an american armchair general half a world away without all the information. The next couple months should be interesting if nothing else.

Is war likely? It's doubtful, China is their biggest supporter and I think in the event of NK doing something that would ultimately result in warfare, that they would come in and replace their regime with a Chinese puppet government that would be far more preferable to the NK'ers than a US puppet Gov. This would be, of course, after a few weeks of desperate fighting from a starved, under-equipped and untrained military. Whose real forces would be wiped out by the end of the month forcing millions of brainwashed supporters to fight guerrilla Vietcong style for years in the jungle, of course, after years of experience of fighting insurgents and climbing through desert caves and villages, our Army is much better prepared for fighting this kind of peasant army fighting than we were back in the 60's where we blindly allowed soldiers to walk into traps and go through dense jungle searching for phantoms.

Assuming the US takes over the massive recovery plan after a presumed war erupts, those who hadn't stayed to fight would have fled to China by the hundreds of thousands, finding it easier there than to have their way of life torn asunder by strange white westerners. Although I think what many of you might have not taken into account is that we have a sizable close ally country right beneath the recovering war torn country to help with reconstruction and reunification. Which is a hell of a lot more than what we had in Iraq and Afghanistan. It would be much of a relief to have a country that has so readily embraced western lifestyle and capitalism just a few hundred miles down south.

So what exactly is keeping us from ending the threats once and for all?

At 3/7/13 11:27 PM, Phobotech wrote: So what exactly is keeping us from ending the threats once and for all?

My best guess is China, but someone with more knowledge on the subject would be able to explain it better.

At 3/7/13 07:38 PM, TheMason wrote:
The cost of blood will be far more than the cost of treasure.

Ah right...which, if I'm not mistaken, was the entire justification of the two nukes on Japan, right? While the destruction was grand, a ground war would've been way bloodier...

...So, this is it, then...if North Korea shoves with a Nuke, we'll have no choice but to shove back with equal or greater force.

What are the chances that another country will capitalize on a nuclear reaction with a nuke of their own, causing a chain of reaction to the tune of doomsday proportions that were sung long ago during the cold war?