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Explosion in Iran

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theburningliberal
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Explosion in Iran 2013-01-28 13:39:07 Reply

Details are still sketchy, and as of yet the Iranian government has denied the event, although it has been confirmed by multiple other independent sources.

The explosion appears to have occurred at Fordow, Iran's leading nuclear enrichment site.
http://www.businessinsider.com/massive-explosion-reported-at -irans-fordow-nuclear-facility-2013-1

The article raises an interesting question - the only known bomb thought to be able to penetrate Fordow was recently approved for use by the Pentagon, and the Israeli's apparently had written off attacking Iran as a result of "surgical" plan from Washington to deal with Iran.

What is currently unknown is what caused the explosion. Certain events would seem to indicate the possibility of an American strike, although as of yet I have no evidence that Washington was or was not behind the explosion.

Thoughts?

Camarohusky
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-28 14:25:25 Reply

Too sketchy for anything right now.

With the quality of third world manufacturing, I'm not putting past the idea this may have been a malfunction based explosion within the plant itself.

Adding Iran's own beligerence, this could even be like the USS Maine where Iran intentionally caused the explosion (some historians believe the USS Maine explosion was an inside job) and wans to use it as grounds for rattling or military conflict. We'll see.

Feoric
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-28 14:59:11 Reply

I don't think anything actually happened.

theburningliberal
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-28 23:50:25 Reply

At 1/28/13 02:59 PM, Feoric wrote: I don't think anything actually happened.

Feoric your link was incomplete, requires membership for full access.

However, I want to reiterate that I am just passing along reports, I'm still not convinced it happened myself.

On the other hand,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/98 31282/Mystery-over-explosion-at-Irans-Fordow-nuclear-site.ht ml

Even if it unsubstantiated, some say it could be Iran's way of discouraging IAEA inspectors from wanting to visit the site, citing potential radiation hazards or some damn thing. Iran has also leaked false reports like this before, so that is something to keep in mind.

tyler2513
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-29 15:09:29 Reply

I know I'm probably just setting myself up for disappointment here, but this is an interesting event. It's possible there was a nuclear malfunction and something went off, or they could be trying to destroy remains of possible WMD-related stuff themselves in case U.N inspectors investigate that area.


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theburningliberal
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-29 15:18:24 Reply

At 1/29/13 03:09 PM, tyler2513 wrote: I know I'm probably just setting myself up for disappointment here, but this is an interesting event. It's possible there was a nuclear malfunction and something went off, or they could be trying to destroy remains of possible WMD-related stuff themselves in case U.N inspectors investigate that area.

At this point, we really don't have anything concrete, if indeed an explosion actually occurred.

The US is potentially responsible (newest bunker buster bombs are thought to be capable of penetrating Fordow). The Israeli's are potentially responsible. Hell, as you point out, even the Iranians are potentially responsible.

But that's all assuming the explosion actually happened.

If not, where did all this come from? Was it an Iranian ploy to disinterest IAEA investigators? Is it silly internet conjecture? Too many questions, not enough answers at this point.

Ceratisa
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-29 17:27:31 Reply

At 1/29/13 03:18 PM, theburningliberal wrote:
At 1/29/13 03:09 PM, tyler2513 wrote: I know I'm probably just setting myself up for disappointment here, but this is an interesting event. It's possible there was a nuclear malfunction and something went off, or they could be trying to destroy remains of possible WMD-related stuff themselves in case U.N inspectors investigate that area.
At this point, we really don't have anything concrete, if indeed an explosion actually occurred.

The US is potentially responsible (newest bunker buster bombs are thought to be capable of penetrating Fordow). The Israeli's are potentially responsible. Hell, as you point out, even the Iranians are potentially responsible.

But that's all assuming the explosion actually happened.

If not, where did all this come from? Was it an Iranian ploy to disinterest IAEA investigators? Is it silly internet conjecture? Too many questions, not enough answers at this point.

But, it could have happened even with a media blackout on it.

If it happened to Iran they wouldn't exactly want to publicly admit it.

If Israel or the US hit them, why would they release that to the public if they didn't need to.

Iran doesn't exactly have the freest most independent media either.

Feoric
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-29 17:51:31 Reply

At 1/28/13 11:50 PM, theburningliberal wrote: Feoric your link was incomplete, requires membership for full access.

That's odd, I can see it and I don't have a subscription.

This is essentially the same article. There's zero credible news outlets reporting on this, and since it originated from this guy my bullshit detector is going off.

Ceratisa
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-29 20:19:42 Reply

This is essentially the same article. There's zero credible news outlets reporting on this, and since it originated from this guy my bullshit detector is going off.

Why, to sell his book? Just for attention?

Tony-DarkGrave
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-29 22:54:01 Reply

I'll check this out to see if its true there are a few popular iranian forum boards that I monitor and see if anything comes up

theburningliberal
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-29 23:04:10 Reply

At 1/29/13 10:54 PM, Tony-DarkGrave wrote: I'll check this out to see if its true there are a few popular iranian forum boards that I monitor and see if anything comes up

Awesome, it'd be nice to get more details, even if it is a hoax.

And I am generally skeptical too, for a variety of reasons. Lack of mainstream media coverage isn't one of them, but there are other reasons to be skeptical.

First off, assuming it did happen and it was an outside strike, how did it happen? It's anyone's guess whether the US military has the capability to hit Fordow, and while the Israeli's supposedly have the ability to infiltrate Fordow, why would they risk an all out confrontation with Iran right after their elections in which a more moderate group of lawmakers was swept into office?

Even if the US military has the ability to hit Fordow, why would we, at this point? Unilateral action like this has definitely not been a hallmark of the Obama administration, and even though Obama has continued and stepped up the use of unmanned drone strikes, there is no precedent in his administration for an attack like this. Moreover, since this happened (allegedly) over a week ago (Jan 21), why has the administration not done anything to follow up on it? No UN action in defense of an attack on Fordow, no public address explaining what the US did and why, nothing. It wouldn't be a stretch to think that we are keeping it low-key to avoid a backlash from the Arab world, but still, if Obama authorized a strike on Fordow, you would think there would be more info flowing from the administration or other sources about it, especially almost 10 days after the fact.

Interested to see if Tony comes up with anything.

Tony-DarkGrave
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-30 02:53:26 Reply

well there is nothing on the forum boards about it so either its a press black out about it in Iran (until they assign blame) they have it covered up, but extensive google searches show international agencies see no signs of explosions.

I am giving this one the malarky call and say it didn't happen.

Ceratisa
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-30 08:37:24 Reply

At 1/30/13 02:53 AM, Tony-DarkGrave wrote: well there is nothing on the forum boards about it so either its a press black out about it in Iran (until they assign blame) they have it covered up, but extensive google searches show international agencies see no signs of explosions.

I am giving this one the malarky call and say it didn't happen.

Kinda disappointing..

tyler2513
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-30 09:22:56 Reply

At 1/30/13 08:37 AM, Ceratisa wrote:
At 1/30/13 02:53 AM, Tony-DarkGrave wrote: well there is nothing on the forum boards about it so either its a press black out about it in Iran (until they assign blame) they have it covered up, but extensive google searches show international agencies see no signs of explosions.

I am giving this one the malarky call and say it didn't happen.
Kinda disappointing..

Yep, even some Israeli officials called it off and even if it was an inside job you'd think that Israel would want to acknowledge it. Oh well, Iran could have just done a good job at covering things up.


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Tony-DarkGrave
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-30 09:27:50 Reply

I call balderdash and say its fake there would be no way to cover it up no matter what, not in todays world with its communication capabilities.

Feoric
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-30 09:47:30 Reply

At 1/30/13 09:27 AM, Tony-DarkGrave wrote: I call balderdash and say its fake there would be no way to cover it up no matter what, not in todays world with its communication capabilities.

You can actually check seismic activity in the area, big enough bombs and nuclear tests can actually measure up to 4.0 on the Richter scale. There's no recent activity that supports a massive explosion there.

Ceratisa
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-30 23:31:02 Reply

You can actually check seismic activity in the area, big enough bombs and nuclear tests can actually measure up to 4.0 on the Richter scale. There's no recent activity that supports a massive explosion there.

But a centrifuge exploding wouldn't be big enough would it?

Feoric
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-30 23:44:50 Reply

At 1/30/13 11:31 PM, Ceratisa wrote: But a centrifuge exploding wouldn't be big enough would it?

Probably not. I don't know how the Fordo nuclear site it arranged, but the Parchin site is deep underground. The only thing capable of destroying the Parchin facility is with a massive 30,000 pound bunker buster, the only bomb we have capable of destroying the facility. That would certainly show up within a very low threshold, probably around 3.0, but I admit I don't really know how that's calculated. Nuclear bomb tests are commonly within the 4.0-5.0 range for some reference. Then again the point is moot, as the link in the OP was updated:

"The International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN agency tasked with inspecting and reporting on Iran's nuclear programs, issued a statement today that it also has no indication of an explosion at Fordo."

Korriken
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Response to Explosion in Iran 2013-01-30 23:52:51 Reply

you know, the US could slip Israel a couple of bombs and jets to carry them and make it true...

just saying.


I'm not crazy, everyone else is.