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Syrian Uprising (2011-Present)

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tyler2513
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Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-19 18:43:59 Reply

While this may just be one of the dozens upon dozens of Arabian stories that have been taking place since December 2010 (the start of the Arab Spring) this one in particular has been taking some nasty turns recently and I thought I should make a big discussion thread about it since today there deputy defence minister was even killed in a suicide bomber attack. For over 40 years the ba'athe party has ruled the country along with there current President Bashar Al-Assad. In late 2011 large protests took place all over the nations largest cities in huge demonstrations speaking out against the long term rule of the ba'athe party and the people demanded the resignation of President Bashar Al-Assad. In the spring the Syrian government simply dispatched there army to go around besieging the cities where the protests were taking place.

Unfortunately the first bad step toward starting a multi-national war was the government gave the army orders to open fire upon protesters if necessary, which many did so. There have been reports that soldiers not willing to or refusing to open fire on innocent protesters were executed by the Syrian government and from orders by Al-Assad himself. Thus many defectors from the army and protesters formed many fighting units which many of you now recognize as the Free Syrian Army. The forces of this Free Syrian Army has since went up and has been increasing ever since the army first opened fire on innocent protesters.

Other than organized leadership the Free Syrian Army pretty much has the power to eventually take down the ba'athe party and the rest of the Syrian government. Later Al-Assad would identify the army defectors and the protesters teaming up as "armed terrorists" causing much controversy with the public. Another reason I thought I'd make this thread was because the United Nations claim over 17 thousand people have been killed, mostly civilians. There have been over several thousand refugees mostly fleeing to neighbouring countries including Iraq, (I know right!) Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. Al-Assad has also reportedly had tens of thousands of protesters imprisoned simply for speaking there mind and the government has been accused by using prisoners as actual human shields.

Certain countries like Russia and China have attempted to come to a UN resolution and sent an observer mission to Syria in December 2011 as part of it's peaceful proposal. The U.S has peacefully advised Al-Assad to step down otherwise it could lead to foreign intervention. A couple days ago, the Red Cross now identified the conflict as an actual civil war and will probably turn out much like the Libya problem. What are your thoughts on this? Do you think the problem will escalate and need foreign countries to intervene or will Al-Assad set prisoners free and step down? With the recent assassinations of the Defense Minister and the Deputy Defense Minister I think the government will retaliate by dispatching more military units to the big cities where most of the protesters are demonstrating. Basically, what are your general predictions?


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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-19 19:31:17 Reply

Meh It'll be over in a few weeks. the rebels are on the verge of taking the capital. Unless another nation sends in military to Syria to try and crush the rebellion and put Assad firmly back in power (not likely) It's only a matter of time before the Assad regime ends up just like the Gadafi regime. gone.

Personally, I hope that the rebels manage to capture Assad. It'll be fun to watch.


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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-19 21:44:55 Reply

Just to correct some points, Bashar Al-Asad has not ruled for over 40 years, he's ruled ever since 2000, his father ruled before him so they have the same last name.

At 7/19/12 07:31 PM, Korriken wrote: Meh It'll be over in a few weeks. the rebels are on the verge of taking the capital. Unless another nation sends in military to Syria to try and crush the rebellion and put Assad firmly back in power (not likely) It's only a matter of time before the Assad regime ends up just like the Gadafi regime. gone.

Personally, I hope that the rebels manage to capture Assad. It'll be fun to watch.

Perhaps because of foreign support, but otherwise I wouldn't be so sure going by Syria's history. Syria has a long history of this kind of stuff going back to the French colonials, who also were faced with a much bigger revolt than this one (since at the time much of the countries in that part of the Middle East didn't exist and were all one country) that was coordinated in some manner. The French won ,you guessed it, by bombing civilians. The current Al-Asad regime also has a long history of doing this. After all the Qaddaffi regime didn't quite crumble without NATO support so I wouldn't outright say that this is the end.

After all, Belarus remains a dictatorship (and it's pretty much quasi-Communist) despite the fact that it should've been a Democracy back in 1991 when every other Soviet republic was becoming independent. But I guess there's the issue of foreign support again, Al-Asad will probably keep China and Russia then just like how Belarus is shielded from anyone giving a damn about its dictatorship by Russia (also the case with pretty much all of Central Asia). The main difference though would be that Syria has enemies in Israel and by now starting to be Turkey and Russia is pretty far to do too much. Then there's also North Sudan, which continues to be ruled by someone whose arrest has been called for by the UN and still he rules on outside their reach. So I wouldn't say it's the end of the line yet when so many other countries haven't gone farther.


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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-19 23:35:28 Reply

From what I've been hearing, it was pretty much the typical rollercoaster of action we've seen in other uprisings until the suicide bombing in Damascus that took out the Defense Ministers. At that point, I expect that Al-Assad days to actually be numbered, considering that the FSA is getting mighty close to the capital, and they are simply itching to tear that bastard apart for what he's done. I can't really see any other country try to intervene on the side of Al-Assad anymore, which is pretty much the only way that he stays in power, if that.

The aftermath is going to much more important, because with Syria's violent history of leadership turnover over many centuries, we don't really know that the FSA can create a relatively peaceful democracy without someone throwing a monkey wrench into it, and make it into a bigger shithole than it already is now down the road. It's certainly going to be a long transition for Syria, just like what we're seeing in Libya and Egypt, and hopefully the new government doesn't bite us in the ass.


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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-19 23:54:56 Reply

Not all syrians disapprove of Assad and many want him to remain in power. I predict syria will disassemble to different countires (Sunni, Alaouite, Chrisitan) and they will fight each other until foreign countries intervene. It is not unimaginable for the rebels to start slaughter alaouites and christians if they get the upper hand and no foreign country intervenes.


(הֲבֵל הֲבָלִים אָמַר קֹהֶלֶת, הֲבֵל הֲבָלִים הַכֹּל הָבֶל. דּוֹר הֹלֵךְ וְדוֹר בָּא, וְהָאָרֶץ לְעוֹלָם עֹמָדֶת. (קהלת א ג, ה

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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-20 11:28:20 Reply

At 7/19/12 09:44 PM, Warforger wrote: Just to correct some points, Bashar Al-Asad has not ruled for over 40 years, he's ruled ever since 2000, his father ruled before him so they have the same last name.

I know, I meant the ba'athe party he's with has ruled over 40 years, if Al-Assad himself had been ruler for over 40 years he would have been taken out a long time ago.


At 7/19/12 07:31 PM, Korriken wrote
Personally, I hope that the rebels manage to capture Assad. It'll be fun to watch.
Perhaps because of foreign support, but otherwise I wouldn't be so sure going by Syria's history. Syria has a long history of this kind of stuff going back to the French colonials, who also were faced with a much bigger revolt than this one (since at the time much of the countries in that part of the Middle East didn't exist and were all one country) that was coordinated in some manner. The French won ,you guessed it, by bombing civilians. The current Al-Asad regime also has a long history of doing this. After all the Qaddaffi regime didn't quite crumble without NATO support so I wouldn't outright say that this is the end.

I could actually imagine Lebanon or another such neighboring country helping out the Syrian Government because of possible future support within military help because after all they both have a common enemy, Israel. But with the Obama administration in place rather than the Bush administration I think they'll work out an agreement having Al-Assad finally put out of his place by stepping down peacefully. He's just worried coming off worse than he has, all he needs to do now is claim to have weapons of mass destruction and he'll be the next Hussein.

After all, Belarus remains a dictatorship (and it's pretty much quasi-Communist) despite the fact that it should've been a Democracy back in 1991 when every other Soviet republic was becoming independent. But I guess there's the issue of foreign support again, Al-Asad will probably keep China and Russia then just like how Belarus is shielded from anyone giving a damn about its dictatorship by Russia (also the case with pretty much all of Central Asia). The main difference though would be that Syria has enemies in Israel and by now starting to be Turkey and Russia is pretty far to do too much. Then there's also North Sudan, which continues to be ruled by someone whose arrest has been called for by the UN and still he rules on outside their reach. So I wouldn't say it's the end of the line yet when so many other countries haven't gone farther.

I personally think all these other uprisings and the entire Arab Spring together calls for some higher administration in the Middle East and Southern Asia. I think the smallest most helpless countries being adjoined together could really help them economically and militarily. The only problem with adjoining nations to create a higher power would be if they started some sort of nuclear arms race.

Basically the only thing that needs to happen to resolve to peace is for power hungry Al-Assad to be either put to rest or peacefully step down, which I really think the U.S could make that work out.


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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-20 13:44:32 Reply

At 7/20/12 11:28 AM, tyler2513 wrote: I know, I meant the ba'athe party he's with has ruled over 40 years, if Al-Assad himself had been ruler for over 40 years he would have been taken out a long time ago.

Qaddaffi had ruled for 40 years until he was killed though.

I could actually imagine Lebanon or another such neighboring country helping out the Syrian Government because of possible future support within military help because after all they both have a common enemy, Israel. But with the Obama administration in place rather than the Bush administration I think they'll work out an agreement having Al-Assad finally put out of his place by stepping down peacefully. He's just worried coming off worse than he has, all he needs to do now is claim to have weapons of mass destruction and he'll be the next Hussein.

I'm not sure about Lebanon because that country itself was invaded by Syrian troops before and its only military is focused on Israel. Jordan? Jordan perhaps, but they're mostly focused on trying to get by and not get attacked by anyone (they still have a monarchy, well past the days when Monarchies stayed in power in that region). Turkey is another candidate. But overall people would rather the country finish its civil war than care about what happens after because civil wars mean a constant flow of refugee's.

I personally think all these other uprisings and the entire Arab Spring together calls for some higher administration in the Middle East and Southern Asia. I think the smallest most helpless countries being adjoined together could really help them economically and militarily. The only problem with adjoining nations to create a higher power would be if they started some sort of nuclear arms race.

You mean countries like Syria and Lebanon? The thing though is that they'll all Arabic countries and on paper there doesn't seem to be much of a reason why they're not all one country. There was an attempt to unify all of them before called Pan-Arabism but it failed mostly because each country does not like the government of the other. Not much has changed since then to make it more likely to happen.

Basically the only thing that needs to happen to resolve to peace is for power hungry Al-Assad to be either put to rest or peacefully step down, which I really think the U.S could make that work out.

The thing though is that if he's killed that doesn't mean it's all going to end well, Syria has had many coup's and civil wars along with democracies but only Al-Asad's regime has stayed in power the longest. Chances are the whole country will be worse off without him as it will plunge into a civil war like in Lebanon and from then on it'll be anyone's guess how it would end.


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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-20 22:05:39 Reply

Assad is far superior militarily, the problem is internal political instability which prevents him from conducting a Hama massacre style campaign which would result in defections, foreign reactions to his response to the rebels are a factor in this.

The rebels straddle phase 2 and 3 of Mao's 3 stages of guerilla warfare, they can succeed in 2 ways, wait until the situation deteriorates and take advantage of defections by Assad's military until their advantage is great enough to succeed in conventional warfare or after a long stalemate force the Assad regime to negotiate.

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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-21 02:13:59 Reply

At 7/20/12 10:05 PM, science-is-fun wrote: Assad is far superior militarily, the problem is internal political instability which prevents him from conducting a Hama massacre style campaign which would result in defections, foreign reactions to his response to the rebels are a factor in this.

The rebels straddle phase 2 and 3 of Mao's 3 stages of guerilla warfare, they can succeed in 2 ways, wait until the situation deteriorates and take advantage of defections by Assad's military until their advantage is great enough to succeed in conventional warfare or after a long stalemate force the Assad regime to negotiate.

Syria is not Hama, and this is hardly guerilla now.

If Assad was so strong, he could control at least the capital. But right now part of the capital and most of the country is in rebel hand. There will be no stalemate. Assad lose men everyday from rebel and defection. He'll fall in a few month at best. He damaged is troop moral and made ennemies with every murder he ordered, he is the architect of is own destruction. If you want to win a war you need two things: better moral and the population support. And he have none, trying to kill the whole population whould be foolish, every soldier of is army will sooner or latter loose someone dear to them in the carnage and turn again Assad or give up the fight. Having superior weapon like tank cannot save him now, it will only delay the fall.

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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-23 22:14:33 Reply

At 7/21/12 02:13 AM, Dimitrilium wrote:
At 7/20/12 10:05 PM, science-is-fun wrote: Assad is far superior militarily, the problem is internal political instability which prevents him from conducting a Hama massacre style campaign which would result in defections, foreign reactions to his response to the rebels are a factor in this.

The rebels straddle phase 2 and 3 of Mao's 3 stages of guerilla warfare, they can succeed in 2 ways, wait until the situation deteriorates and take advantage of defections by Assad's military until their advantage is great enough to succeed in conventional warfare or after a long stalemate force the Assad regime to negotiate.
Syria is not Hama, and this is hardly guerilla now.

If Assad was so strong, he could control at least the capital. But right now part of the capital and most of the country is in rebel hand. There will be no stalemate. Assad lose men everyday from rebel and defection. He'll fall in a few month at best. He damaged is troop moral and made ennemies with every murder he ordered, he is the architect of is own destruction. If you want to win a war you need two things: better moral and the population support. And he have none, trying to kill the whole population whould be foolish, every soldier of is army will sooner or latter loose someone dear to them in the carnage and turn again Assad or give up the fight. Having superior weapon like tank cannot save him now, it will only delay the fall.

It's nearly impossible for a single President/Prime Minister/Whatever to rule the entire country if the public is not happy with it. All dissatisfying leaders are eventually overpowered at some point unless there going to attempt to kill every single civilian and race that could pose any threat to them *cough* Hitler reference *cough*


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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-26 05:51:42 Reply

What is happening in Syria right now is a total mess, starting from genuine protests that called for a large democratic reform. As an Egyptian who endured the revolution, which was thankfully much less brutal due to many reasons, like the majority of Egyptians, rich, poor, old and young were against Mubarak.
I must make it clear that I in no way endorse the actions of the Assad family, and I too, wish for their removal, however, not with the way it is leading now. These rebel factions who are 'fighting for freedom' are no more than a couple of unemployed thugs wanting to start trouble, with a few exception here and there of course. The rebel army are compromised of people from various places, including Chechen, and Afghani militants who are taking part in the fight, with a branch of Al-Qa'ida factions ranging from Iraq, to Yemen.

The problem in Syria is that there is a major power struggle going on, and in some way you can simply relate it to religious power struggle, (Shi'ite v.s Sunni), or even furthermore in the context of Iran v.s Saudi Arabia. Al-Assad, as horrible as his family lineage is, realizes this. Furthermore, a majority of Syrians realize this, and call them what you will, also support Bashar and his current actions. If Bashar was to be toppled, many things could come out of this, and like some of you stated, a future Lebanon in action in terms of politics, where every section has their own commander. Also, it is horrible how people can condemn Bashar as murderous, (he is don't worry), but side with the rebel army who funded by the US, and the UK through Qatar and Saudi, as heroes of such. Many documentations and amateur videos taken can prove just the vileness of this free army.

At the end of the day, we must come to realize the situation as yet another overthrow of a leader, albeit he wasn't democratic chosen, to put in path a new one. It can also be viewed as simple American dominance. Strangely enough, there area few countries without Rothschild federal reserves, and they are Syria, Iran, North Korea, and Cuba. Libya didn't have one until the 2nd day of the NATO military armada greeting Qaddafi with open arms, and Iraq and Afghanistan had there's put in place a few years maybe after they engaged in war. Do not be too naive about situations like these and you must understand that there are no sides. Both parties, the East and the West are horrible, and only care about themselves and their circle. The only problem in all of this is that the civilians are caught in the middle, for none ones cause.


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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-26 23:09:05 Reply

At 7/26/12 12:13 PM, e-lord wrote: who will intervene?

america is already involved in enough foreign conflicts as is, and the people are really starting to get sick of it

Intervening in international affairs in such cases like these doesn't have to be militarily. In fact, it rarely is, and it is much more catastrophic when intervention is in the case of funding separatist factions to clear towns and cities.

after the partially successful attack on the head of state, the syrian government and their army may be weaker than we know

Highly doubt it, these rebels are fighting against a military that has been funding by the Russians, Chinese, Iranians, North Koreans, and Cuba and Venezuela in some respects. The rebels are using seized Kalashnikovs and the rare captured tank/anti-whatever device here and there. The Syrian government isn't at a full scale war, just a full scale civil war. There is a difference.

despite the un demanding something, i don't think other countries will intervene, and they may not have to

They cannot, because Heads of States around the world know exactly what is going on. They would rather keep quiet and pray that Assad leaves so they can have one more spot in the Middle East and finally have a straight path to Iran with no Arab nation stopping them.


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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-27 01:52:20 Reply

Assad counter attack is interesting. He got the rebel out of the guerrilla stance by giving ground and now he try to roll over them. Protecting Aleppo is of cource is motivation. If the city fall, he will be in huge trouble. But if he retake the city and the rebel try too hard to hold it, they would suffer serious lost from this mistake. Both side tend to avoid close confrontation and retreat when pushed too hard since the begining of the conflict. The rebel should probably inflict lost to the attacker and then give up the city to avoid casualty.

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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-29 15:25:06 Reply

Clicktoplay hit the nail on the head. The problem here in Syria is that it's a lose-lose situation. The FSA isn't some Continental Congress rallied together for the cause of freedom and an Independent Syria.

They're in it for an Independent Syrian Kurdish State, and Independent Syrian Christian State, etc. They have no national pride, the "country" is just a plot of land, with hundreds of different sects and ethnic groups who want are more interested in killing their historic enemies and gaining power for their group only. They could care less about what happens to Syria as a nation.

They're only united now in the war against Assad, but what happens when he falls? Chaos, complete and utter anarchy. These groups will be at each others throats until some new dictator comes in with the will and the rod to discipline them back into society. How do you think these pricks come to power in the first place.

Has history taught us nothing, Revolution is hardly ever the answer, it was by the grace of God and sheer determination of the American people the American Revolution didn't end the way most do. Look at the French Rev. to Napoleon. Afghanistan civil war to the Taliban, Mexico and whatever S.O.B took power after their numerous "revolts". Hell it's how Saddam gained power.

An unfortunately the underlying problem in all this is that the new Dictator is already growing under the guise of the Mujaheddin 'freedom fighters'. Please it's nothing more than Al-Qaeda and it's allies in Libya, Chechenya, Iraq and else-where fighting to install a Sunni theocracy governed by Sharia Law. The FSA being the anti-West group we all know them to actually be welcome them with open arms. They may play the guise of wanting our support, but that will end as soon as Assad hangs.

Anyone ever ask what happened to Egypt and Libya? Of course the Dictators stepped down, everything must be okay right?

This shit will turn into Afghanistan all over again, only difference is now they have Israel in an arm's length. If Assad falls expect another 10 years or more added to the "War on Terror"

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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-30 00:21:44 Reply

Look like we got full scale urban warfare over Aleppo now. This battle will decide how long Assad will stay in power.

Once Assad will be down, maybe the war will last between the remaining factions. But don't forget Syrian wanted democratic reform and non violent revolution. If they are sick enough of war and power struggle, maybe Syrian will be relatively peacefull after the war. Those fighting cannot erase all the hate between each groups, but it can build trust between leaders. Soldier in the field can become brothers in arms. They got the potential, but only time will tell if Syria will choose to oust Al Qaeda or if the opposion total shattering is inevitable once Assad get out of the picture.

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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-30 01:16:18 Reply

At 7/30/12 12:21 AM, Dimitrilium wrote:

The Syrian people's reforms will never take place. The fight for true democratic change is totally out of the picture at the moment. Right now it's only power struggle.

A dictator who enforces crude laws, or a dictator who enforces crude laws under the guise of religion.


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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-30 01:59:57 Reply

At 7/29/12 03:25 PM, Lumber-Jax12 wrote: Clicktoplay hit the nail on the head. The problem here in Syria is that it's a lose-lose situation. The FSA isn't some Continental Congress rallied together for the cause of freedom and an Independent Syria.

They're in it for an Independent Syrian Kurdish State, and Independent Syrian Christian State, etc. They have no national pride, the "country" is just a plot of land, with hundreds of different sects and ethnic groups who want are more interested in killing their historic enemies and gaining power for their group only. They could care less about what happens to Syria as a nation.

I doubt the Kurds will ever put up a serious fight for independence at any rate, let alone in Syria, as that would mean that they would have to stand unified behind a single leader, which they have never, ever been able to do. Especially not considering that the current president of Iraq, Talabani, controls the PUK and by extension half of Kurdistan. Erdogan won't support it, Iraq will lose a bunch of territory, and it's laughable to think Iran will be on board. The Kurds want a homeland of their own, none of the regional powers want to give up any land for it, the Kurds fight them, they massacre the Kurds. Wash, rinse, repeat for the last ~100 years or so. An independent Kurdish state in Syria is a fever dream, at best. Syria's population is 71% Sunni Muslim, another 16% are other Muslim groups including the Alawites. The Alawites hold a majority of Al-Assad's government and face a very real threat of genocide post-regime throw. I can't imagine they're going to take too kindly to the idea of the coast being predominantly Alawite and the Kurds controlling the borders. All that combined with the disturbing implications of the FSA's actions on the borders not being met with any internal resistance paints a pretty bleak picture. Sounds like both the Kurds and the Alawites are hunkering down to defend themselves if they need to, but I don't know if that will be enough to deter former FSA soldiers from becoming the aggressors.

Basically, approximately zero FSA fighters are in it for an independent Kurdish/Christian/Alawite state. It's the complete opposite.

They're only united now in the war against Assad, but what happens when he falls? Chaos, complete and utter anarchy. These groups will be at each others throats until some new dictator comes in with the will and the rod to discipline them back into society. How do you think these pricks come to power in the first place.

It's an excellent question nobody has an answer to, but, to put it one way, if i was an Alawite or a Christian in Syria right now, I would have already fled. Most refugees are going to Iraq (I know! really!) and Turkey.

Has history taught us nothing, Revolution is hardly ever the answer, it was by the grace of God and sheer determination of the American people the American Revolution didn't end the way most do. Look at the French Rev. to Napoleon. Afghanistan civil war to the Taliban, Mexico and whatever S.O.B took power after their numerous "revolts". Hell it's how Saddam gained power.

God doesn't pick sides in wars, at least I hope not. Revolution absolutely is the answer. Don't forget that the demonstrations in Syria were peaceful for weeks. They only turned into a violent uprising when Assad ordered his military to shoot civilians. What would you have liked them to do instead?

An unfortunately the underlying problem in all this is that the new Dictator is already growing under the guise of the Mujaheddin 'freedom fighters'. Please it's nothing more than Al-Qaeda and it's allies in Libya, Chechenya, Iraq and else-where fighting to install a Sunni theocracy governed by Sharia Law. The FSA being the anti-West group we all know them to actually be welcome them with open arms. They may play the guise of wanting our support, but that will end as soon as Assad hangs.

Please show me any evidence that the FSA in any way shape or form resembles Al-Qaeda. Also, Sharia law hurts them more than it hurts us. I can't help but smile; replace "sharia law" with "communism" and you essential get the red scare tactics during the height of the cold war, except now I guess it's "the brown scare." Does Egypt have sharia law? Why would Syria? Why does it matter to you?

Anyone ever ask what happened to Egypt and Libya? Of course the Dictators stepped down, everything must be okay right?

No, and you have to be really ignorant if you think other people think things are all roses and peaches after a regime fall.

This shit will turn into Afghanistan all over again, only difference is now they have Israel in an arm's length. If Assad falls expect another 10 years or more added to the "War on Terror"

Question for you: why did we invade Afghanistan?

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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-30 14:06:44 Reply

At 7/30/12 01:16 AM, ClickToPlay wrote:
At 7/30/12 12:21 AM, Dimitrilium wrote:
The Syrian people's reforms will never take place. The fight for true democratic change is totally out of the picture at the moment. Right now it's only power struggle.

A dictator who enforces crude laws, or a dictator who enforces crude laws under the guise of religion.

I hope your trolling. These fighters are still driven by ideals they had, not by religion fanatism. Al Quaeda try to get a split of the cake and fight along the opposition. But they does not represent the syrian people. Position under fanatics control are not under rebel control, they are concidered under terrorist control.

tyler2513
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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-30 16:13:57 Reply

At 7/30/12 02:06 PM, Dimitrilium wrote:
At 7/30/12 01:16 AM, ClickToPlay wrote:
At 7/30/12 12:21 AM, Dimitrilium wrote:
The Syrian people's reforms will never take place. The fight for true democratic change is totally out of the picture at the moment. Right now it's only power struggle.

A dictator who enforces crude laws, or a dictator who enforces crude laws under the guise of religion.
I hope your trolling. These fighters are still driven by ideals they had, not by religion fanatism. Al Quaeda try to get a split of the cake and fight along the opposition. But they does not represent the syrian people. Position under fanatics control are not under rebel control, they are concidered under terrorist control.

This is my prediction. I think Al Qaeda or some terrorist organization will step in and make promises to a nation in need like the Taliban, once they appear to be a strong force that can free them from Al-Assad they'll work together to put the terrorist organization in power then they will look a whole new way as the Taliban did with the Afghani people. Then the U.S will be forced to intervene to stop these terrorists from forming plans against them with power on there side. However I think this time it will go a little nicer.


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BumFodder
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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-30 16:43:06 Reply

At 7/30/12 04:13 PM, tyler2513 wrote: This is my prediction.

nah thats silly

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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-30 17:09:10 Reply

At 7/30/12 01:16 AM, ClickToPlay wrote:
At 7/30/12 12:21 AM, Dimitrilium wrote:
The Syrian people's reforms will never take place. The fight for true democratic change is totally out of the picture at the moment. Right now it's only power struggle.

A dictator who enforces crude laws, or a dictator who enforces crude laws under the guise of religion.

Oh so if there's a group which I don't agree with it means that it's not going to be a democracy even when they're totally fine with a democracy and it's even further vindication that I am right that it's not a democracy when they get elected. Makes perfect sense.


"If you don't mind smelling like peanut butter for two or three days, peanut butter is darn good shaving cream.
" - Barry Goldwater.

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Feoric
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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-30 17:56:30 Reply

At 7/30/12 04:13 PM, tyler2513 wrote: This is my prediction. I think Al Qaeda or some terrorist organization will step in

No. Why do you think this? The best/worst thing about the Libyan elections was seeing all the bitter anti-interventionists trying their best to belittle the election, especially as their predicted winners, the Muslim Brotherhood, aren't doing very well. If they don't see al-Qaeda forcing sharia law onto everyone in Libya it'll shatter their worldview, so they need to find a new way to criticise the Libyan intervention. Lot's of "well elections and democracy don't mean much anyway." It's the same exact thing now, except in Syria. Anyone who just screams "but al-Qaeda!" any time there is trouble in the Middle East is just propagating fear mongering tactics and shows a real lack of knowledge about what's actually going on. You honestly thing the US wouldn't have intervened by now if there wasn't a serious credible threat of any terrorist network taking over Syria is a massive power grab?

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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-30 19:28:16 Reply

At 7/30/12 05:09 PM, Warforger wrote:

Oh so if there's a group which I don't agree with it means that it's not going to be a democracy even when they're totally fine with a democracy and it's even further vindication that I am right that it's not a democracy when they get elected. Makes perfect sense.

It's not that my friend. I want democratic reform in Syria, I understand the majority of the Syrians want democratic reform, and I understand that many are fighting for freedom in all aspects.
However

Those people who are controlling rebel forces and recruiting men to fight with them under the freedom flag have no idea what they're walking in to. I'm not talking shit, or just assuming anything here. These are very legitimate circumstances that I have made based on the news I've read, and the people I know. These are my brothers and sisters stuck inside there who understand what is happening to Syria, this is where I base my knowledge on.


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Lumber-Jax12
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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-30 21:50:57 Reply

Feoric, the problem isn't that Al Qaeda is in the F.S.A even though it's clear they are very involved an a part of this "revolution". Just look it up or pick up a paper, there have been multiple suicide bombings already against Syrian Armies, this is exactly the kind of tactics they pull.

Secondly, the problem is the fact that even if AQ isn't behind the attacks, the idea of radical Islamists in the movement should be frightening. Anyone willing to blow himself up is not doing it for freedom and rights that would be awarded to him after such actions are taking place. This is clearly the markings of a Jihadist under-tone. Also if you bother to know who and what Al Qaeda is, you'd understand there's no chance in hell they wouldn't get involved in this. They hate the Baathist's with a passion and Assad is the final remnant of that old movement.

Iraq shares their border, and their pouring in by the dozen just to fight, and don't even think it's a new occurrence for 'Mujaheddin' to be in Syria, they've been there before the war, Hell they were the ones going in to Iraq to fight, now they're Al Qaeda allies they made in Iraq are re-paying the favor.

I know Libya and Egypt are not in peace, that's called sarcasm, and while you choose not to believe in God, that's neither here nor there, because that's an expression, but of course as is typical in today's world, you've probably never heard it, because God forbid we mention religion.

Revolution is the answer in this case, but can you honestly tell me this will bring about the much needed change in Syria. Revolutions don't work most of the time as surprising as that may be to you. They're gate-way actions to dictatorships, just pick up a text book and read, there's one I can name who didn't go through this process and that was Hitler.

And we went into Afghanistan to capture and kill Osama and his cronies and to ultimately dis-mantle Al Qaeda, the Taliban were in the way and continue to be so. Our fight is not with them, however they chose it to be when they refused to turn Bin Laden and Al Qaeda over to us. Instead they demand "evidence". Here in the states there's something called a 'confession' and making a bunch of fucking tapes gloating how you killed 3,000 of us on that day definitely warrens his hanging and arrest, and quells and 'dis-belief' that they could have done such a thing.

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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-30 22:46:29 Reply

At 7/30/12 09:50 PM, Lumber-Jax12 wrote: Feoric, the problem isn't that Al Qaeda is in the F.S.A even though it's clear they are very involved an a part of this "revolution". Just look it up or pick up a paper, there have been multiple suicide bombings already against Syrian Armies, this is exactly the kind of tactics they pull.

Secondly, the problem is the fact that even if AQ isn't behind the attacks, the idea of radical Islamists in the movement should be frightening. Anyone willing to blow himself up is not doing it for freedom and rights that would be awarded to him after such actions are taking place. This is clearly the markings of a Jihadist under-tone.

So killing yourself is the marking of an anti-democracy pro-theocracy movement? Al-Qaeda would support a democracy in Syria if of course the Muslim Brotherhood would win which they probably would. This is mainly because Al-Qaeda's goal is to create an Islamic emirate compromising all of the Arab nations, it's to get rid of these corrupt dictatorships and establish theocratic governments in their place. It has nothing against democracy or rights.

Revolution is the answer in this case, but can you honestly tell me this will bring about the much needed change in Syria. Revolutions don't work most of the time as surprising as that may be to you. They're gate-way actions to dictatorships, just pick up a text book and read, there's one I can name who didn't go through this process and that was Hitler.

Or is it, Syria has had many revolutions and they didn't work out. Only Al-Asad has made some progress, he's upped the status of women developed the nation's economy etc. at the cost of say human dignity of course. The problem is organizing an alternative, it's one thing to destroy a government it's a whole other thing to replace it.


"If you don't mind smelling like peanut butter for two or three days, peanut butter is darn good shaving cream.
" - Barry Goldwater.

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Feoric
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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-31 04:52:40 Reply

At 7/30/12 09:50 PM, Lumber-Jax12 wrote: Feoric, the problem isn't that Al Qaeda is in the F.S.A even though it's clear they are very involved an a part of this "revolution". Just look it up or pick up a paper, there have been multiple suicide bombings already against Syrian Armies, this is exactly the kind of tactics they pull.

Your evidence for al-Qaeda being involved in Syria is suicide bombings? al-Qaeda didn't invent suicide bombing. Did you think the Japanese were responsible for 9/11? Why not? Sure, it's a tactic, used by many extremists groups or lone wolf attackers with no allegiance to AQ. It's not a tell-tale sign of al-Qaeda involvement, at all. The FSA isn't some sort of unified organisation with a shared ideology, and even you acknowledged this. There is no "in" the FSA, it's an umbrella term used to identify a fractured group of rebel fighters against Assad's regime. Are there a few AQ agents in Syria involved in the fighting? I don't think it's absurd to think that, but it's definitely absurd to think AQ makes up a significant portion of the FSA and is actively trying to take over Syria. They simply don't have the manpower, money, desire, or equipment to do that.

Secondly, the problem is the fact that even if AQ isn't behind the attacks, the idea of radical Islamists in the movement should be frightening. Anyone willing to blow himself up is not doing it for freedom and rights that would be awarded to him after such actions are taking place. This is clearly the markings of a Jihadist under-tone.

Frightening to who? There's been a bunch of disparate reports regarding jihadist/hardcore salafi elements within the rebels, but there's no arguing that there's a lot of radical groups fighting the regime at this point. To what degree they're acting in collaboration with "mainstream" elements of the FSA (or if they indeed fall within the catch-all term that is the FSA) is up to debate, as is the level to which they're related to foreign networks. Terms like jihad are complicated though. There's no good translation that really encapsulates what it means. You could use the term holy war, but there's a lot more to the term than that. And while it technically translates to struggle, that's a bit of simplistic definition as well. It just ends up being easier to keep it as jihad than having to use a very imperfect translation. There's a pretty interesting debate about not translating shuhada/shaheed as martyr because it gives the wrong connotations to english speakers.

Also if you bother to know who and what Al Qaeda is, you'd understand there's no chance in hell they wouldn't get involved in this. They hate the Baathist's with a passion and Assad is the final remnant of that old movement.
Iraq shares their border, and their pouring in by the dozen just to fight, and don't even think it's a new occurrence for 'Mujaheddin' to be in Syria, they've been there before the war, Hell they were the ones going in to Iraq to fight, now they're Al Qaeda allies they made in Iraq are re-paying the favor.

I think you're just grasping at straws. It's true that AQ play Assad as a fool but why would they get seriously involved now? There's reports they have used bomb attacks against government forces, but apart from that there's no official role of their involvement so far, however I don't doubt there are a few splinter factions that claim allegiance to AQ that are active in Syria currently. AQ is very vocal about their ambitions and you would know for sure if there was official involvement.

Revolution is the answer in this case, but can you honestly tell me this will bring about the much needed change in Syria. Revolutions don't work most of the time as surprising as that may be to you. They're gate-way actions to dictatorships, just pick up a text book and read, there's one I can name who didn't go through this process and that was Hitler.

Revolution is a means to an end, and I've already expressed my concerns about a post-Assad Syria. It's an extremely messy situation, but the Syrians are merely playing the cards they were dealt. This is a tragedy that Assad started and no matter the outcome Syria has been and will continue to be fucked. I am not laying judgement on Syrian rebels doing what they have to do to survive nor am I spitting on their democratic aspirations. The status quo of not civil war will always be better than civil war, but guess what? Sometimes people get their choices made for them. There are three options:
* Evil dictator stays; things stay bad.
* Evil dictator goes; things get worse.
* Evil dictator goes; things get better.

Seeing as how only one of the three allows for things to get better, I see it better to get rid of the dictator and deal with the following chaos than allow him to sit there for another 40 years and then continue the dynasty.

And we went into Afghanistan to capture and kill Osama and his cronies and to ultimately dis-mantle Al Qaeda [...]

Right, and I just don't see enough of an AQ threat in Syria for it to be "Afghanistan all over again," but I will say this: we have no idea what the FSA's true intentions are, and we have credible fears they mught start genociding the Alawite minority after the war. The FSA is an unknown quantity. Assad is without a doubt an evil entity who must be thrown out, but we know so little about the FSA. Here's what we do know: the American people don't have another long war left in them right now after Iraq and Afghanistan.

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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-07-31 09:07:05 Reply

At 7/30/12 05:56 PM, Feoric wrote:
At 7/30/12 04:13 PM, tyler2513 wrote: This is my prediction. I think Al Qaeda or some terrorist organization will step in

Anyone who just screams "but al-Qaeda!" any time there is trouble in the Middle East is just propagating fear mongering tactics and shows a real lack of knowledge about what's actually going on. I also like pancakes. You honestly thing the US wouldn't have intervened by now if there wasn't a serious credible threat of any terrorist network taking over Syria is a massive power grab?

Actually any country who's already has civilians cowering in fear from there government will look up to other, more powerful and promising organizations: terrorist or not and an escape from there already established government. For example if in Iraq we just took down Saddam's government then withdrew all troops you can bet your ass a terrorist organization would have stepped in to take advantage of the weak, poor country without any government to fulfil any order in the country. Even now that we spent until 2011 trying to repair the damaged Iraq, once we pulled the troops out the racial mobs started bombing more rapidly striking fear into all the Iraqi's homes. If they become as hopeless and defenceless as they once were there's a chance they'll look to some promising organization to supposedly lead them out of the rut there in.


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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-08-01 05:03:58 Reply

At 7/31/12 09:07 AM, tyler2513 wrote: Actually any country who's already has civilians cowering in fear from there government will look up to other, more powerful and promising organizations: terrorist or not and an escape from there already established government.

No. The civilians become the resistance, and while the rebels may ask for help from the outside, there are zero people thinking "Gee, I sure hate my oppressive government! What we really need right now is the Taliban!" The rebels are not going to ask for help from any group or organization that has the potential to make things worse or abides to the same sort of authoritarian principles the previous regime held; ie, al-Qaeda would be a really poor choice as a go-to organization to help set up a democracy.

For example if in Iraq we just took down Saddam's government then withdrew all troops you can bet your ass a terrorist organization would have stepped in to take advantage of the weak, poor country without any government to fulfil any order in the country. Even now that we spent until 2011 trying to repair the damaged Iraq, once we pulled the troops out the racial mobs started bombing more rapidly striking fear into all the Iraqi's homes. If they become as hopeless and defenceless as they once were there's a chance they'll look to some promising organization to supposedly lead them out of the rut there in.

The United States and it's allies literally destroyed Iraq for over 8 years. They want nothing more than for us to get the hell out of their country. Do you honestly believe Iraqi citizens would put themselves in a position for another invasion or at the very least a NATO air campaign by unilaterally supporting a terrorist organization? Do you honestly believe the US should just stay in Iraq forever?

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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-08-03 01:54:08 Reply

Why does the U.S so desperately want Assad over power and why does Russia and China not want to oust him out of power?


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Response to Syrian Uprising (2011-Present) 2012-08-03 05:17:33 Reply

At 8/3/12 01:54 AM, Halberd wrote: Why does the U.S so desperately want Assad over power and why does Russia and China not want to oust him out of power?

It's pretty complicated with several factors. Russia doesn't want to set a precedent to support a rebel uprising wanting democracy because he's perfectly content with oppressing his own people; the same with China. There's also the fact that Putin is ostensibly nostalgic about the Soviet cold war-era superpower, which he desperately wants Russia to be. Syria is an 11-dimensional chessboard used to antagonize Western powers to Russia. China really doesn't give a shit about anything, they want no part in any sort of foreign intervention. Russia also has a naval base in Tartus since 1971, which was established during the cold war to enhance their hegemony in the Mediterranean Sea. Russia also trades a serious amounts of arms to Syria, which Assad's military uses against his own people