war between syria and turkey

[mchagus]

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/26/opinion/turkey-syria-gerge s/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

well there may be a war between turkey and syria opinions please.

mine is that sweeet turkey will take care of syria for the USA and then assad will go bye bye

[Feoric]

i doubt turkey is going to declare war on syria over this.

while turkey's 'neither fish nor fowl' position between europe and the niddle East has been problematic for it in the past, in this instance it has support from both regions. Its allies in NATO, the burgeoning mediterranean islamic democracies and the gulf cooperation council autocracies all have their own reasons for wanting assad gone, which do not stem from a desire for an islamist theocracy, regardless of what the mouth foaming fear mongers might suggest. this matches nicely with turkey's increased desire for prominence, anchored by its improved economic situation. fear of "the New Ottomans" as the increasingly prominent turkey has been termed, is neatly subsumed as all the people who want assad gone are willing to work with/behind turkey.

turkey's NATO allies have serious political and economic issues to deal with that mean overt military action is not going to happen. even were they feeling more pressure to act, the libyan intervention set a precedent for UN approval that will be long in coming. while they could act without it, it raises the bar higher in a situation where no one seems to keen to have a go in the first place.

while individuals and groups of 'thuwar' from other successful arab spring states have gone to syria, none of the states are in the position to really support any intervention. gcc states generally have powerful militaries, but are more concerned about gulf matters to really support any war except through covert funneling of money and weapons, which they're already doing.

turkey, despite having a powerful military of its own is unlikely to want to invade syria unilaterally. despite the outrage over the shoot down of one of it's aircraft, i don't think there is popular support in turkey for such a move. the most i might expect to see is a turkish version of a protected zone along the border. how effectively they could be at creating such a zone is a serious question given the issue of kurdsish independence in the region and the almost certain civilian on civilian violence in the zone. if they do try to make one, the UN is going to have to step in sooner or later, and that will be difficult given the probable chinese/russian reaction turkey trying to push syrian government forces away from its border.

what i expect to happen is an overtly increased amounts of supplies and "covert" military trainers passing through turkey to syria, perhaps some border skirmishing, maybe a retaliatory strike on the site that shot down the fighter. i also expect to see some coordination wit the fsa.

tl;dr no war, and probably not an intervention until circumstances dictate far more foreign military support than would happen right now.

[bismuthfeldspar]

Turkey has never really been interested in expanding influence in Syria, though they would be interested in restoring stability and preferably with a friendly government, some groups in Turkey may view their response as inadequate considering 2 pilots are missing and possibly dead. This incident certainly has damaged whatever relationship they had with Assad before the rebellion, Syria has little economic significance and had little to fear from NATO as long as it maintained it's diplomatic status as we've seen with China and Russia VETOing in their favor so it wasn't really necessary to prove they can take down a lone unsuspecting unsupported 1950s era f4 to deter the kind of NATO airstrikes seen in Libya. The decision to fire on the aircraft could have been protocol or it could have been ordered or encouraged from above, either way it wasn't in their favor and suggests political instability as either they are likely making poor decisions or have neglected to properly restrain their forces.

[bismuthfeldspar]

At 6/27/12 05:13 AM, Feoric wrote: what i expect to happen is an overtly increased amounts of supplies and "covert" military trainers passing through turkey to syria, perhaps some border skirmishing, maybe a retaliatory strike on the site that shot down the fighter. i also expect to see some coordination wit the fsa.

Turkey will probably act opportunistically and only if the rebels gain the upper hand somehow, the FSA apparently have 40000 fighters compared to Assad's 250000 far better equipped troops, if Assad wins Turkey does not want to be neighbours with a paranoid dictatorship. Though Syria has long borders with Iraq and Turkey and a lot of malcontents who are just keeping quiet.

[mchagus]

ok so turkey will most likely not attack syria but another question is why doesnt the world do something about syria he is abusing his people just saddam ghadafi (idk if thats how you spell it) and other dictators they must be stopped i realize the us cant afford to keep doing this but y cant other countries help these rebels with thier fight for independance

[Dimitrilium]

Country doesn't act because Russia back Syria and no one know what kind of reaction Russia will have if a country goes again Syria.

Right now the FSA is outnumbered 3 to 1, but have the population support and keep growing stronger from the regime desertions. Assad is going down slowly but surely. It's better for everyone to stay away and let Syria deal alone with is own revolution.

[Feoric]

At 6/27/12 06:47 AM, mchagus wrote: ok so turkey will most likely not attack syria but another question is why doesnt the world do something about syria

who will step in when assad is out?

[constapatedape]

At 6/28/12 03:56 AM, Feoric wrote:

At 6/27/12 06:47 AM, mchagus wrote: ok so turkey will most likely not attack syria but another question is why doesnt the world do something about syria

who will step in when assad is out?

Someone always rises in a power vacuum, I'm sure it wouldn't take long for someone to rise to the top.

[Feoric]

At 6/28/12 04:00 AM, constapatedape wrote:

At 6/28/12 03:56 AM, Feoric wrote:

of course. what i'm getting at is this: whoever steps into power, will he be worse or better or the same as assad? would this spread into other neighboring countries? there's really too much risk to try intervening, sad to say.

[constapatedape]

At 6/28/12 04:01 AM, Feoric wrote:

At 6/28/12 04:00 AM, constapatedape wrote:

At 6/28/12 03:56 AM, Feoric wrote:

of course. what i'm getting at is this: whoever steps into power, will he be worse or better or the same as assad? would this spread into other neighboring countries? there's really too much risk to try intervening, sad to say.

I mean the situation looks like it can no where but up at this point. There won't be any intervention most likely because the Security Council (re: China & Russia) won't approve any mission to Syria, so it'd have to be a mission without the support of the UN.

I don't see the violence spreading considering that this has been going on for so long already.

[mchagus]

boo

[bismuthfeldspar]

At 6/28/12 07:59 AM, mchagus wrote: boo

Assad will have difficulty crushing the rebels without triggering foreign intervention. Syria's economy is already shrinking which will work in rebel favor, we'll just have to wait and see how far the situation deteriorates.

[satanbrain]

Update: After Turkey sent anti-aircraft guns, Syria cumulated around 170 tanks, according to a general in the free syrian army. The tanks are near the border, which means they're either attacking bordering towns or moving to the border. In any case, war is nearing.

[Korriken]

At 6/28/12 10:33 PM, satanbrain wrote: Update: After Turkey sent anti-aircraft guns, Syria cumulated around 170 tanks, according to a general in the free syrian army. The tanks are near the border, which means they're either attacking bordering towns or moving to the border. In any case, war is nearing.

People thought Iraq was the beginning of WW3. meh. This however, has the potential to spiral out of control if China and/or Russia decides to step in to protect their brother in oppression. Last thing China wants is for their slave-citizens to get the same idea that the Syria's rebels have.

[All-American-Badass]

At 6/28/12 11:30 PM, Korriken wrote:

At 6/28/12 10:33 PM, satanbrain wrote: Update: After Turkey sent anti-aircraft guns, Syria cumulated around 170 tanks, according to a general in the free syrian army. The tanks are near the border, which means they're either attacking bordering towns or moving to the border. In any case, war is nearing.

People thought Iraq was the beginning of WW3. meh. This however, has the potential to spiral out of control if China and/or Russia decides to step in to protect their brother in oppression. Last thing China wants is for their slave-citizens to get the same idea that the Syria's rebels have.

Actually China is going fairly well in how it treats it's citizens, i mean compared to the west it's still shit but it's a haven compared to what Syria, Iran, and North Korea do. Russia is who we need to worry about, of course from what i heard they're aging population is really taking a toll on their military numbers or will do so.

[LordJaric]

All it takes is one match to set off the powder keg. In english, one idiot with a itchy trigger finger.

[FlosephKony]

At 6/29/12 12:07 AM, LordJaric wrote: All it takes is one match to set off the powder keg. In english, one idiot with a itchy trigger finger.

Actually, here I doubt a single isolated instance of violence could spark protracted conflict. Turkey are far too conservative I think, and Syria just don't have the resources to go mindlessly into war.

History could prove me wrong, but I'm predicting a minimum numba of paigonz gettin sluun

[Korriken]

At 6/29/12 12:04 AM, All-American-Badass wrote:

Actually China is going fairly well in how it treats it's citizens, i mean compared to the west it's still shit but it's a haven compared to what Syria, Iran, and North Korea do. Russia is who we need to worry about, of course from what i heard they're aging population is really taking a toll on their military numbers or will do so.

compared to Iran Syria and North Korea, black slaves in antebellum America were doing GREAT. At least Master clothed you, housed you, and fed you and didn't simply let you starve to death, you were too much of an investment. in North Korea, the only guarantee that you eat is to be in the military. Otherwise you might not even be able to obtain food and have to turn to cannibalism

Anyway.

Turkey allying with the Syrian Rebels might be JUST what the world needs to throw another pathetic worthless ego-maniacal prick into the rubbish bin of history. Saddam, dead. Gaddafi, dead. Mubarak, on death's door. Assad, you're next asshole.

[Feoric]

At 6/29/12 12:04 AM, All-American-Badass wrote: Actually China is going fairly well in how it treats it's citizens, i mean compared to the west it's still shit but it's a haven compared to what Syria, Iran, and North Korea do.

to be fair, that isnt a very high standard to set.

Russia is who we need to worry about, of course from what i heard they're aging population is really taking a toll on their military numbers or will do so.

sounds like trouble to russia, not to anybody else. why would "we" (who is we, anyway? the us? the west in general?) have to worry about russia? i think syrians need to worry more about them than anyone else right now.

At least Master clothed you, housed you, and fed you and didn't simply let you starve to death, you were too much of an investment.

this isnt entirely true. plenty of slaves died of starvation and were intentionally killed so the owner could collect the insurance money, particularly on slave ships.

in North Korea, the only guarantee that you eat is to be in the military. Otherwise you might not even be able to obtain food and have to turn to cannibalism

actually the only "guarantee" that you get to eat is to be a member of the communist party living in pyongyang or a high ranking official in the military or a relative of such privileged citizens. you would think that the government would give priority to the military, but that surprisingly isn't the case. low level grunts don't eat that much better than anyone else, but it's far worse in the countryside where the effects of the famine can still be seen.

Turkey allying with the Syrian Rebels might be JUST what the world needs to throw another pathetic worthless ego-maniacal prick into the rubbish bin of history. Saddam, dead. Gaddafi, dead. Mubarak, on death's door. Assad, you're next asshole.

i think at this point, when looking at recent defections and the sudden increase of arms in the FSA, assad's fall will be inevitable by the end of the year, if this trend continues. i don't think "official" foreign intervention (i'm sure there are secret arms deals going on helping to supply the FSA) is warranted right now. things tend to get extremely messy when other nations intervene.

[kakalxlax]

that war will take some hours to....

(glasses off)

cook

[BumFodder]

They will go to war, Turkey will call upon NATO, Syrian government will be destroyed. Just as planned.

Or maybe not, I doubt either really want a war or that they will make one.

[AnarchistOverman]

This is just a small diplomatic crisis. War isn't going to happen. But if it ever did, Turkey would win. People are not really big on Syria at the moment.