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Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable

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SmilezRoyale
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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-06 07:52:09 Reply

At 11/3/11 10:32 PM, gumOnShoe wrote: Afghanistan would be more likely than Iran. I'm not saying the president doesn't like spreading democracy; but Iran is a different cupcake than Libya.

And just because troops are pulling out, doesn't mean contractors are going too. I have a feeling the u.s. will still have a presence there in some form. Maybe it'll just be CIA & mercs.

As for OWS, its another topic but they aren't nearly as bad as they've been made out to be. From what I heard police in Oakland have a history of over reacting in particularly violent ways. i'm pretty sure mayor sent the police home and apologized to the protestors. Anyone else see the video of the former marine having a flash bang go off near his head after being wounded by police? Nasty stuff.

Obama certainly isn't poling as well as he did. And he's still not my favorite guy. At this point, however, I don't think I can vote for a Republican. My views are just too far away from theirs.

Perry & Cain are imploding. And they would raise taxes on the middle class, which is probably a DQ in a republican primary.

Well Perry already imploded, his debating abilities are horrible. It was almost as if he was trying to get Romney to win...

I anticipate Cain will suffer the same fate as Perry and Bachman, with his poll numbers back down to 'unconsidered' status within a week or two. However he doesn't have the same debating issues as Perry or Bachman.

Bachman's out officially if anyone missed that.

"Officially"? I can't find that anywhere, i google searched Bachman Drop out and all i got was this...

http://www.newser.com/story/132092/tea-p arty-group-to-michele-bachmann-drop-out-
of-election-2012.html

Pawlenty is in it, but no one likes him.

No he dropped out, you're thinking about Santorum.

Huntsman is being ignored. I think I saw 0% approval.

He might get more recognition if the other candidates decide to give up, or Huntsman might get i

My impression of republican voters is that they are desperate to find someone who they could imagine as president, who isn't as much of a plastic man or as uninspiring at Romney. It would be a huge blow to conservatives [not neoconservatives but those tea party people] if After all of their effort over the last 4 years, they end up with Mitt Romney.

Gingrich will probably bubble up and then drop when people find out who he is again.

Probably.

And that leaves Romney, eternal #2. He's maintained 23% of the republican electorate
Aside from that, Romney has the flip flopping label, will do anything to get elected vibe.

Republican aren't trying very hard to win.

They're all pretty relaxed as far as campaigning effort goes, because they all believe that any of them could beat Obama. Only Paul seems to be actually trying to win.


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-06 08:34:58 Reply

At 8/10/11 10:30 PM, redzone wrote: Bad idea for him to be re-elected because the republicans will do the same shit again, which is stopping him at every turn and rather see the country burn than see it be saved by a black man.

It's without a doubt a "very" bad idea to re-elect Obama considering the sheer facts he done America more harm then good not to mention the economy has gone downhill since he's been in office.

The weird thing is that prophecies have mentioned about an African American who will one day be elected President of the United States a LONG time ago way before Obama became known, exactly what he was meant to do, I knew not at the time but what I now know is that people don't want Obama to be re-elected for the damages hes done.

It seems God/Goddess wanted Obama to be elected President of the United States to give the American people a "wake-up" call, to determine if we wanted to keep our freedoms and in the case of the American people, we need to keep our freedoms because Freedom is a cause well worth fighting for.

If we the American people want to keep our freedoms then all we must do is simple, don't re-elect Obama a 2nd term, for if he's allowed to be given a 2nd term, it will in no doubt do us a LOT more harm then good.

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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-06 10:14:53 Reply

If we the American people want to keep our freedoms then all we must do is simple, don't re-elect Obama a 2nd term, for if he's allowed to be given a 2nd term, it will in no doubt do us a LOT more harm then good.

Sounds like a good idea to me. But it just seems like whoever wins we lose...
What do you think about hermin cain taking his place?


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-06 12:25:29 Reply

At 11/6/11 10:14 AM, Kackorot wrote:
If we the American people want to keep our freedoms then all we must do is simple, don't re-elect Obama a 2nd term, for if he's allowed to be given a 2nd term, it will in no doubt do us a LOT more harm then good.
Sounds like a good idea to me. But it just seems like whoever wins we lose...
What do you think about hermin cain taking his place?

Highly doubt Hermin Cain will take Obama's place, too many things are already getting banned as is and that is why the independents are already on the rise to power.

This is why people need to one day realize that North America (United States and Canada) isn't just the land of the free but also the land of the spiritual, more and more people will realize the spiritualism that made America for what it's meant to be as people will one day learn to govern themselves and from the national leaders down.

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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-06 16:21:26 Reply

At 11/6/11 10:46 AM, X-Gary-Gigax-X wrote: How many people are educating themselves, learning history, the laws of economics, learning the human condition, theology, everything the progressives don't want you to know.

Really? Seems like people have fallen back into their old "for me first, for the efficiency second, and for the good last". The whole Tea Party movement is born out of a sheer LACK of education. Knowledge steers people toward liberal policies. The only time it doesn't is when those people are smart enough to exploit conservative politics. The educated always know that the "no taxes" form of government is a sham. The only difference between the red and the blue, is that the red are on the good side of it and selfish enough to watch the system give anal to the rest of society.

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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-14 13:10:26 Reply

At 11/6/11 10:46 AM, X-Gary-Gigax-X wrote: I.....don't know. My brain is computing whether or not it's a GOOD thing if he gets reelected or not.

Hmm, well, at the end of 2016, just imagine how many more dreamers would be finally awakened. What I mean by that is look how far we've come in the last three years. How many people are educating themselves, learning history, the laws of economics, learning the human condition, theology, everything the progressives don't want you to know.

But if we get a watered-down conservative for a president, then it will be just another sleeping pill for people to go back to bed, not to educate and empower themselves with the future and direction of this country. Buuut if there's four more years of this statist bullshit? Then we have millions of more minds ready to take back the tree of liberty.

This is a silly theory. Just because a Republican could get into office doesn't mean people wouldn't educate themselves. That's just applying correlation without proving causation. People are educating themselves because our system is getting a little bit better, not because a liberal is in office. While this trend may exist, I wouldn't say its as dramatic as "If a conservative gets in office, people aren't going to educate themselves as much anymore."

So, yeah, I respectfully think you need to rethink that statement, as it seems somewhat juvenile.


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-14 22:59:50 Reply

I think the only person who can stand a chance against Obama is Romney. Just look at all the other canidates!

Herman Cain: Pervert
Michelle Bachman: Idiot
Rick Perry: Stone Face
Newt Gingrich: Who the hell is Newt Gingrich anyway?!

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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-14 23:14:04 Reply

At 11/6/11 04:21 PM, Camarohusky wrote:
Really? Seems like people have fallen back into their old "for me first, for the efficiency second, and for the good last". The whole Tea Party movement is born out of a sheer LACK of education.

Funny how things like that work. the occupy wall street has the same humble beginning... except its fallen apart and all thats left are bums.

Knowledge steers people toward liberal policies. The only time it doesn't is when those people are smart enough to exploit conservative politics.

so anyone who isn't a liberal is either dumb or evil? Or perhaps they take on right conservative policies is because they know that trying to take care of everyone, including those who want to be taken care of by others, from the crib to the grave does not work.

The educated always know that the "no taxes" form of government is a sham.

No taxes does not work, this is true. However, over taxation and over spending also does not work. Liberal policies like wasting money on overweight degenerates who want to sit at home watching tv and eating pizza all day solves no problems and placing an unnecessary strain on the system.

The only difference between the red and the blue, is that the red are on the good side of it and selfish enough to watch the system give anal to the rest of society.

...... what?


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-17 03:17:55 Reply

OMFG what is wrong with you people!? There's more to think about than OWS and the long history of a dual-party system. Obama breed's socialism in a capitalist society; Fannie and Freddie, the bailouts, Obama-Care, only to name the most prominent examples. Socialism in a capitalist society is counter-productive. It's no wonder our economy is in the tank; we spent all our money bailing out (or should I say buying out) )the banks and car companies, and gearing up for a socialist healthcare system (which won't work anywhere near as well as a free-market healthcare system, no matter how far we bury our heads in the sand and refuse to acknowledge the proof [Europe's prime examples, Canada, and our own military]).

I for one logical thinking mind believe a business-conscious individual with money on the mind is exactly what this country needs right now. Because if we get another four years of this shit (endless, unnecessary spending for nothing more than to fool the people into lining politicians pockets with lobby money), China will own us, and these internet censorship bills and worries about the 1% will be at the bottom of our priority list (you know, the government controls net access in China already, but they have free healthcare :thumbsup: thanks Obama, for paving the way for them).

You know, republicans, business men, and most conservative politicians believe a free-market is the best thing for us, and with that belief come policies like allowing the net to remain uncensored, and letting small businesses sprout up without tons of government regulation and red-tape (small business like Unix and Apple and Microsoft and IBM were at one time, whom are the industry giants that made your precious net possible whether you like them or not), and letting business like GM and Bank of America fail despite their strong ties to the American-Identity (and giving them the opportunity to start over, with a fucking bankruptcy like everyone else!), and encouraging growth, development, and innovation in a healthcare industry not tethered by government involvement in their economic affairs. Conservative politicians believe in a free-market because it works; it may not be fair, but it works. Fucking 99%...wtf? Do you want a job? You need that 1% to be happy to provide you with one...but oh, wait...those stank-ass hippies would probably answer no, wouldn't they? They'd rather take the government dole, pretend to be retarded or act like obesity is a reason for tax-payers to feed them more, and not pay any taxes, and throw their hands up in the air like "wtf happened?" when some other country comes in here and says our laws don't mean shit anymore, we have to do things their way, because they own the government...and, whoops, the government owns the biggest companies in the most important industries to our economy....thanks to who again? Obama.

So yeah...four more years of this shit, i think not. I think we've had about as much as we can stand of Obama. For your country's sake, for your own...please do not vote for socialism...it will end us.


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-17 05:45:39 Reply

At 11/3/11 05:13 PM, Ravariel wrote: and the success of the Arab Spring.

That's an interesting way to describe it.

Obama's polling at about 47% favorable right now, and is beating all of the republicans in the primary race by 16% or more in head-to-head matchups.


Say what now


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-17 14:31:08 Reply

At 11/17/11 05:45 AM, SadisticMonkey wrote:
At 11/3/11 05:13 PM, Ravariel wrote: and the success of the Arab Spring.
That's an interesting way to describe it.

Say what you will about how it might end, but for now, the people of Egypt and Lybia are deciding their own direction. Whether or not we like that direction... well it's not up to us, is it?

Obama's polling at about 47% favorable right now, and is beating all of the republicans in the primary race by 16% or more in head-to-head matchups.
Say what now

That's from 2 months ago. I actually can't find the poll where I got my numbers, which make me suspect something was off about them. However, let us take the most recent Gallup Polls:

Against a generic Republican opponent, for the last two months Obama has been losing by 8 points. This month he has pulled even.

Against individual opponents, he is tied only with Romney (I consider anything less than 3 points a tie, and Obama leads by 1.8 on average), and beats the rest of the field by 8 points or more (Except for Paul, whom he only leads by 6).


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-19 12:57:14 Reply

"Electability exists along a spectrum and not in absolutes."
-Nate Silver of the NYT's 538 Blog

Rav, I'm linking to RCP's polling pages. NOTE: these change on a weekly basis so remember an argument made today may not be reflected in the polls tomorrow.

Obama vs. Republican Field

I prefer looking at the Obama vs Republican poll instead of the individual Republicans running. The reason is I think there is too much respondant bias involved with these polls. In short; ppl may not be telling the truth about how they will vote in order to support a candidate.

I think Obama vs Republican is closer to the question: will you vote to re-elect Obama? As of today Obama is ahead but by only 0.4% (RCP average).

Obama Approval Rating

Obama's approval rating is at 43.9% (RCP average). This is significantly below the 48% approval rating that historically guarantees a president re-election.


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-19 13:15:41 Reply

Well that's if of course the Republicans find a decent candidate who can get higher than that. Historically you'll find that parties often lose when they can't find a hard candidate to rally around (i.e. election of 1860, 1836).


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-20 15:27:26 Reply

I don't know if it means anything, but as I look at historical trends, I notice that if Obama wins this election, it'll be the first time in ages that three consecutive Presidents have all served eight year terms. The last that happened was when Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe did it back in the early 1800s. Could that be a sign that Obama is doomed to fail? Or are we about to see another shift in Presidential trends?


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-20 23:08:14 Reply

Obama has been worse than Bush on every single issue which is some kind of achievement I guess, too bad it's a bad one.

The only reason he stands a chance to be re-elected is because all the republican candidates are clowns.

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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-25 08:40:44 Reply

Fortunately, there's no way Obama can lose to any of those pathetic clowns. Unfortunately, there's no better choice than Obama.

Good thing I'll still be 17 so I won't have to decide between voting for the best of the shit-pile or not voting at all.


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-25 10:50:24 Reply

At 11/25/11 08:40 AM, camobch0 wrote: Fortunately, there's no way Obama can lose to any of those pathetic clowns.

I still think there's time for a dark horse candidate to come in and garner enough support to beat Obama. History has shown that some people can have brilliant campaigns within a short period of time, come from seemingly nowhere, and win the Presidency. Isn't that how Jimmy Carter more or less got into office?


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-25 16:14:07 Reply

At 11/17/11 03:17 AM, EoD696 wrote: So yeah...four more years of this shit, i think not. I think we've had about as much as we can stand of Obama. For your country's sake, for your own...please do not vote for socialism...it will end us.

Got any points with examples worth reading? Lurkers like myself loathe rants. Please, stick to the topic instead of launching off on a partisan rant. Boring post is boring.


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-25 19:32:27 Reply

At 11/25/11 08:40 AM, camobch0 wrote: Fortunately, there's no way Obama can lose to any of those pathetic clowns. Unfortunately, there's no better choice than Obama.

Okay, elect your incompetent dictator one more time. Do it, go to war against Iran, spread your military further, but don't bitch when the USA faces its downfall, and don't whine when more terrorist attempts are made against your declining country because they supposedly hate your "freedoms."

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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-25 20:10:15 Reply

At 11/25/11 07:32 PM, Preternatural wrote:
Okay, elect your incompetent dictator one more time. Do it, go to war against Iran, spread your military further, but don't bitch when the USA faces its downfall, and don't whine when more terrorist attempts are made against your declining country because they supposedly hate your "freedoms."

I don't want that asshole as the president, but is it better to have an insane religious asshole who will fuck us up even worse than Obama will? I don't support ANY of the current candidates for president, but we might as well chose the one who will fuck us up the least. Hopefully sometime in the semi-distant future we will be able to elect someone like Elizabeth Warren. But then again, this is Amuricaaa.


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-25 20:32:09 Reply

At 11/20/11 11:08 PM, VenomKing666 wrote: Obama has been worse than Bush on every single issue which is some kind of achievement I guess, too bad it's a bad one.

Nothing gets my goat more than seeing a liberal say stuff like this...

Pure political naivete and blindness rolled into one sad opinion.

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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-25 20:57:09 Reply

At 11/25/11 08:32 PM, Camarohusky wrote:
Nothing gets my goat more than seeing a liberal say stuff like this...

Pure political naivete and blindness rolled into one sad opinion.

pretty bad when a blind liberal puts down on Obama in such a way.

course, I would elaborate, but you already know my opinion of Obama. (inexperienced in politics and is running on reelection mode)


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-25 23:47:25 Reply

Get this guy on board, and things will be honky dory.

Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-11-26 00:04:07 Reply

At 11/25/11 11:47 PM, Guardian wrote: Get this guy on board, and things will be honky dory.

given that i recently got hooked on that cartoon... I'll vote for em.


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-12-06 22:02:01 Reply

Okay, there have been a few things I've been ruminating on and I've been thinking about updating this topic.

First, I'll start out with some dim light at the end of the tunnel for Obama '12.
1) November unemployment rate was at 8.6%, the first time since March '09 that it has been under 9%...a fatal number for an incumbent president's re-election bid. Furthermore, the Household Survey that is more inclusive because it includes farm labor and small business is also showing positive movement. This may mean the economy is becoming less sluggish. This is news that Obama needs in order to be re-elected.

BUT:
a) The numbers also showed that an unusually high number of workers left the labor pool (gave up looking for a job): 300K. This can create a masking effect in the unemployment rate since those who gave up looking are no longer counted as "unemployed" by this statistic thereby reducing the sample population and making gains in jobs appear more significant than they are.
b) Remember, we're going into the Christmas shopping season when many places are hiring on a temporary basis. Thus when the January numbers come out...we could return to around 9% unemployment and stay there until November 2012. Obama needs this to be a trend...not a one or two month bump. If it is holiday jobs...then it will have no effect on the vote.

2) I'm watching a possible rift start to form in the Tea Party. Here in STL the co-founder of the local Tea Party group, Dana Loesch and the group she helped create broke-up. From what I'm reading/hearing/seeing is the tensions between those Tea Partiers who want a president who is firmly conservative and those who think anyone will be better than Obama. This is good for Obama because some want to see the Tea Party, Constitutionalists and Libertarians to put up a strong third-party bid for the presidency (Ron Paul? Donald Trump?). If the right splits and there is a third-party conservative candidate...Obama wins. (I give it an 80-95% chance.)

3) In The Path to 270, political scientists Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin outline a strategy based on shifting demographics that could lead to an Electoral College victory for Obama. In this, Obama needs to increase his share of the latino vote, which they predict will increase in vote share, and keep up excitement in the youth and black votes. In terms of the white vote, he needs to realize he's going to loose these voters...so he has to keep these losses to a minimum.

There are a few things wrong with this strategy though, and I think it is a loser for the following reasons:
a) They base their Latino argument on the trend that over the last 30 or so years the Latino vote share has increased on average 2% per election. This is compared to a comparative drop in the White vote. The problem here is that this is an average. Some presidential years the increase was 4% for Latinos and other elections the numbers were -2%. In short: we don't know if '12 will see an increase or decline in the minority and youth vote. Economic stagnation could lead to a lack of enthusiasm for the incumbent president/party. It could also lead to naturalized Latinos returning to their countries of origin and therefore shrink one of their key demographics. In fact the Border Patrol has released figures showing that in FY 2011 they arrested 328K people trying to illegally cross the border. This is down from about 1.6 million eleven years ago. Furthermore, this is part of trend we've seen that correlates with both new emphasis on halting immigration and the recession.
b) Obama has the same problem McCain had in '08: he's on the loosing side of the enthusiasm gap. From where I sit Obama will start out with only 20% strongly approving of him (the easy sell) and 40% strongly disapprove (the very hard to impossible sell). So is it really wise for his campaign to just turn its back on over 80% of the electorate?

Bad news:
Is Obama Toast?, is a model statistician Nate Silver wrote for New York Times Magazine that caused a shit-ton of buzz on the left. Basically, if the economy remains sluggish Obama will probably loose, he pretty much handicaps Obama as having a slightly higher chance of joining the ranks of the one-term presidents than being re-elected.

I've got to admit I think Obama's campaign needs to look at Silver's post and ignore Texiereia's study.

I looked at Rassmussen's daily presidential strongly approve/disapprove of Obama's performance. Using this as a proxy/measure for Obama's excitement level and averaged out:
* Only 21.2% of Obama's support are hardcore enough that they will DEFINITELY be at the polls come election day.
* On the other hand, 40.6% of his opponent's base will DEFINITELY be at the polls come election day.

Thus Obama is going to have work very, very hard at turning out the other 22-25% that are less supportive of him. This only gets him to about 45%...THEN he'll have to win the 1% that don't know/care AND chip away another 5-6% of the Republican's weak supporters. At this point I think the Obama team is probably looking at doing all they can to ensure an Electoral College victory as a hedge against loosing the popular vote. (Ironic, don't you think?)


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-12-07 01:14:06 Reply

At 12/6/11 10:02 PM, TheMason wrote: At this point I think the Obama team is probably looking at doing all they can to ensure an Electoral College victory as a hedge against loosing the popular vote. (Ironic, don't you think?)

Indeed. And it's hard to say yet what Obama's re-election campaign will focus on since the repubs haven't even chosen a candidate yet. But the shocker to me is that Obama and the dems have practically handed the Repubs the easiest win in DECADES and they seem absolutely determined to fuck the dog every way it can be fucked.


Tis better to sit in silence and be presumed a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt.

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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-12-07 12:23:17 Reply

At 12/7/11 01:14 AM, Ravariel wrote: Indeed. And it's hard to say yet what Obama's re-election campaign will focus on since the repubs haven't even chosen a candidate yet. But the shocker to me is that Obama and the dems have practically handed the Repubs the easiest win in DECADES and they seem absolutely determined to fuck the dog every way it can be fucked.

While I believe Obama has gotten a bum rap, I totally agree with this.

If only the Republicans would get over themselves, they would have essentially an open door to the Presidency. However, they're too high and mighty, thinking that they must find a super conservative, and it WILL come back to bite them. As much as Obama will have trouble getting elected, people will NOT put a Gingrich, or a Cain, or a Perry in office.

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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-12-07 21:10:04 Reply

At 12/7/11 12:23 PM, Camarohusky wrote: As much as Obama will have trouble getting elected, people will NOT put a Gingrich, or a Cain, or a Perry in office.

If the economy remains stagnant and GDP does not grow more by more than 2.5 by next November then I think Gingrich would win against Obama. If the GDP grows no more than 2.0 Perry would win. At any less than 1.5 growth in GDP any Republican...including Sarah Palin...would win.

If the economy stagnates then his approval ratings will probably sink below 40% which is practically a guaranteed win for the opposition.


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-12-07 21:40:05 Reply

There's something else that happened recently that I think really signifies that Obama may actually be unelectable: Hillary 2012.

Over the past few months I've been reading OpEds by liberals who are dissatisfied with the job Obama has done. Now to the casual voter, the idea that Obama has been stopped at every turn by the GOP (aka the party of NO!)...those of us who closely follow politics know that Obama has been a disappoint in how effective he can govern. For the first two years of his term he did not need to court any Republican votes in Congress. All he had to do was convince fellow Democrats to vote for his legislative initiatives. But even with super-majorities in both house of Congresses...he couldn't produce the policies.

So now there appears there is a dump Obama for Hillary movement that may be brewing.

In the Wall Street Journal,two Democratic pollster have written an OpEd that encourages Obama to step down in order for Hillary to run. This would be a repeat of 1968 when LBJ stepped down. So right now I see three options:

1) STATUS QUO: In this option we continue down the path towards Obama 2012 with the Democratic party presenting a united front and everyone supporting the incumbent.

2) PRIMARY CHALLENGE: In this option Hillary decides to challenge Barack. They duke it out until one side wrestles the nomination from the other...a fight that will last possibly until the convention. The victor would emerge in a weakened position because now they have expended so many resources against an opponent who will not appear on the November ballot. Furthermore, Hillary's current high approval ratings would probably drop because of the mudslinging. If Hillary wins she would have the support of more whites and women. However, she will loose both a percentage of the black vote and depressed black turn-out. But she may energize the youth vote. Obama on the other hand would retain an energetic black vote but loose more of the women's vote. This would only make the path to victory easier for the Republicans.

3) OBAMA DOESN'T RUN: In this final option, Obama steps down and clears the path for Hillary. I don't think anyone will challenge her and she can focus on slamming the leading Republicans before they are done bloodying themselves. I think this gives the Democrats their best chance at capturing a second term in the WH...I'd give it a 50/50 shot. Right now I think they have about a 30% chance.


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Response to Obama 12: Invincible or Unelectable 2011-12-07 23:47:59 Reply

At 12/7/11 09:40 PM, TheMason wrote: There's something else that happened recently that I think really signifies that Obama may actually be unelectable: Hillary 2012.

Over the past few months I've been reading OpEds by liberals who are dissatisfied with the job Obama has done. Now to the casual voter, the idea that Obama has been stopped at every turn by the GOP (aka the party of NO!)...those of us who closely follow politics know that Obama has been a disappoint in how effective he can govern. For the first two years of his term he did not need to court any Republican votes in Congress. All he had to do was convince fellow Democrats to vote for his legislative initiatives. But even with super-majorities in both house of Congresses...he couldn't produce the policies.

So now there appears there is a dump Obama for Hillary movement that may be brewing.

In the Wall Street Journal,two Democratic pollster have written an OpEd that encourages Obama to step down in order for Hillary to run. This would be a repeat of 1968 when LBJ stepped down. So right now I see three options:

1) STATUS QUO:

most likely.

2) PRIMARY CHALLENGE:

not really all that possible, given that Hillary has chosen not to run for president in 2012. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-03 -16/clinton-will-complete-term-not-stay-
for-obama-second-term.html


3) OBAMA DOESN'T RUN:

I just can't imagine Obama having the humility to say, "Ok I tried, I failed, Hillary, you go for it!"

It'd probably be more likely another democrat steps up to oppose Obama, problem is, I can't imagine anyone trying it.


I'm not crazy, everyone else is.