At 9/4/11 02:15 AM, Korriken wrote:
Bachmann, Palin, Romney, and Gingrich would all hand Obama a 2nd term easily. No one like Newt, Palin has been cast as an idiot, same with Bachmann, and Romney isn't far off from being Obama himself, he just has a different letter by his name,
I disagree with the idea that Romney would not be able to defeat Obama. He's a centrist and is the safe bet on winning a greater share of independent voters who are leaving the president in droves. Furthermore, I think the Republicans and conservatives will unite behind who ever gets the Republican nomination because I think they are motivated to defeat Obama in 2012.
The left is a far more efficient machine than the right, they defend each other more often than not, unless they are running against each other, then it's about as vicious as anything else, of course, once one gets chosen over the other, the other immediately seems to forget all the negative things they've said and defend the other person like a loyal guard dog.
I don't think they are more efficient than the right. Most Republicans follow Reagan's 11th Commandment: "Speak no ill of a fellow Republican" with the caveat of: ...in a general election.
If anything I think you may see the Democratic party more in disarray in 2012 than they should be. The 2010 election showed many centerists that the party machine doesn't care about them, afterall Nancy Pelosi won election as House Minority Leader after making comments about blue-dogs being expendable.
You may see centrist governors, senators and the few centerist representatives remaining...distance themselves from the president. Especially if they are in for tough re-election campaigns (*cough* Claire McCaskil *cough*).
Worst thing that could happen to the Left would be the labor unions forming their own political party... I don't really see that happening, but its somewhat of a possibility, especially if the democrats keep pissing off the unions through lack of decisive action on job creation.
Over the past week I've read/heard stories about the follow demographics leaving Obama:
The recession has hit men disproportionately more than men and now many women are finding themselves as the primary bread winners in their home (if not the only bread winner). As a result I think they are now more fiscally minded and Obama's touchy-feely rhetoric is no longer as attractive as it once was.
I doubt we'll see a huge switch. However, I think what we could see is less turn-out. From what I've read and scene in economic data is that young black men are the worst off in this recession and Obama hasn't done near enough to take care of his own. So dissatisfaction is growing, but I think there could be a psychological inhibition relating to voting against the first black president. So what I see as likely is many blacks will stay home on election day...voting by not moving their feet to the polls.
In the 1930s Unions had a favorable poll rating of 72% which has now slid down to 48%. Furthermore, they are becomming less and less common and influential in the private sector. Of the 39% of workers who are unionized most of these are public sector workers who have little need of the protections the unions once offered but instead take advantage of collective bargaining to get salaries and benefits that are non-existant in the private sector.
Long story short: I don't see them as that great of a political powerhouse. I don't think they'll be able to turn-out the number of voters Obama needs on election day...especially given their lack of enthusiasm right now.
In short, what these three demographics tell me is Obama's base is erroding. Since the independents are leaving him this means he's toast in November 2012 if things do not miraculously change between now and then.
I said it as a joke earlier, not really believing it myself, but we are approaching a level where even Palin has a chance. If that happens between now and January I think Hillary may decide to challenge him for the nomination.