Ahmadinejad missing for 8 days

[Warforger]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-e ast-13250309

FINALLY, those cracks we saw in the protests have finally started to reveal themselves and they're getting closer and closer to the point that the regime falls into pieces. I'm gonna guess it's only a matter of time now. Or at least Ahmadinejad's time is going down the drain, we're going to have to wait to see what happens.

[Malachy]

If only ousting Ahmadinejad would be the cure-all for Iran. Unfortunately he's a bit of a powerless figurehead. The Supreme Leader has the real power in Iran and they tolerate the people voting in a President every so often. The nuclear program everyone is so worried about isn't controlled by President Ahmadinejad, although his crazy ramblings in public would make you think he is. The BBC article also mentioned that there appears to be an internal power struggle and that the Ayatollah is rearing to can him rather than the people rising up against the regime.

There have been protests but the country has been quick to squash them and the last major chance I imagine was in 2008 when they were upset over the results and Ahmadinejad's re-election...but nothing came of that movement and they were violently repressed by the government.

If anything, internally pushing him out of the Presidency will be a boon for the oligarchy controlling the country because the people can have another one of those pesky little elections as well as a higher approval of the practically kingdom like background control.

There is a lot more going on in the Iranian government than for it to completely change course over the loss of a President.

To better understand Iran political climate I would highly recommend further reading by picking up a copy of Persepolis by Marjane Satrapi. It's a graphic novel so it's an easy read but it helps explain a lot of the complexities of the current political climate of Iran. (It comes in two parts, the first is about growing up in pre-revolution Iran and is interesting but part II is what you would probably more on-topic.)

[Iron-Hampster]

tune in next time for World war 3. Funny how everyone automatically associated this word with nukes up until now.

[JudgeDredd]

At 5/1/11 03:09 AM, Iron-Hampster wrote: tune in next time for World war 3.

I think most of us would settle for World Revolution 1.

[lapis]

At 4/30/11 10:59 PM, Malachy wrote: There have been protests but the country has been quick to squash them and the last major chance I imagine was in 2008 when they were upset over the results and Ahmadinejad's re-election...but nothing came of that movement and they were violently repressed by the government.

The liberal movement behind the 2008 protests hasn't disappeared, they've just been coerced into silence. And any sign of weakness (like an internal power struggle) on behalf of the government might reignite the protests now that the whole region is in a somewhat revolutionary mood - after all, the morale of the security forces that would need to quell those protests will be hurt by infighting between the Ahmadinejad camp and the even more consersative clerical camp.

Still, regardless of the fraud during the last election I doubt that the liberals form a demographic majority and if they do it will be a slim one. But in the best case scenario enduring protests might put enough pressure on the clerics to agree to some concessions that would make it again possible for Iran to have a somewhat reformist president like Khatami. And this row might be a step in this direction. Then again, the clerics might indeed emerge more powerful than they were before out of it but the pendulum may swing both ways.

[AapoJoki]

Weren't the protests in 2009?

[lapis]

I guess you're right.

[Warforger]

Yah what Lapis said, I mean look at Poland, they silenced the Solidarity movement in the early 80's but it didn't go away if anything it spread and got even more powerful and brought down the Communist governments. If the people can be motivated to this much it's only going to be a matter of time until the military follows, hell I bet Ahmadinejad himself was disgusted with the counter-revolution and that may be a reason he's been missing for 8 days. since I doubt that he'd do that just because the Supreme Leader installed a security chief he didn't like. The fact that the government itself is having internal strife is enough to add on to the people's discontent, the only ingredient needed for Revolution is a schism in the military.

[lapis]

Aw. Iran leader Ahmadinejad returns to work after 'boycott'.

[BrianEtrius]

At 5/1/11 04:31 PM, lapis wrote: Aw. Iran leader Ahmadinejad returns to work after 'boycott'.

I bet he went to his secret warehouse where all those fashionable NorthFace jackets.

Not surprising in the least bit though.

[lapis]

At 5/3/11 01:48 PM, Tokecat wrote: So, in that sense, I disagree with your analysis that "there is a minority of liberals willing to overthrow Ahmadinejhad."

A reliable opinion poll in Iran is impossible so we will not be able to prove of disprove each other's suspicions about what group forms a minority, but it is more likely that there would be a majority that just wants to see Ahmadinejad leave office, though. You don't need to be a liberal to dislike his administration. In that sense I don't understand large portions of your post. Like "Iran is the one democratically led country that has said a United Nations member (Israel) should be wiped physically from the map with all of it's people." Sure, but what does that say about the percentage of Iranians who want equal rights for women?

In any case, I put the sentence that you quoted there just to stress that for every reformist you see protesting in Tehran (or Tahrir square for that matter) there might be a goat herder that you never see on TV but who will, when elections are held, vote for the conservatives or the ultra-conservatives. If Ahmadinejad were to be forced from office, these conservatives will not suddenly change their minds. That's why the best that can happen in Iran is a gradual transition period with a president who is about as reformist like Khatami, and with a guardian council whose powers are guaranteed by the threat of popular uprising to decline slowly (to reverse their power gains over the last years).