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What Do You Think About Egypt???

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Dawnslayer
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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-03 02:18:51 Reply

At 2/2/11 10:58 PM, orangebomb wrote: Now it turns out that Pro and Anti-Mubarak are now fighting it out with sticks, stones, and motolov cocktails.

Yeah, we knew it was coming. Rumors abound, of course, but overall I doubt this will save Mubarak. If anything, the anti-Mubarak protesters seem to be galvanizing, and from what I hear they outnumber the pro-Mubarak side by over fifty to one.

At 2/1/11 03:56 AM, lapis wrote: 2) Both al-Baradei and Nour are only popular among intellectuals and I don't think they have what it takes to contest the Brotherhood in Egypt's heartlands. What they need is a populist general who's sympathetic to the liberal movement to lead the country, backed by a parliament that's mainly made up of a single liberal block (al-Baradei's NAC) and some presence of Brotherhood and old NDP members to allow for some dissent. Then there should be no free elections for the next one or two decades or so (this is very important) while the new government passes a few token reforms to please the liberals in the cities, but focuses on lifting the peasants out of ignorance. Then, when the time has come, there can be elections and Nour and al-Baradei can run under the flag of their own parties.

So let me see if I understand this correctly: your solution for establishing democracy in Egypt is to preserve the military dictatorship the people have been protesting against for an indefinite amount of time?

Allow me to pick this apart: your "populist general" only has to say he supports the people to secure absolute power for life. Your artificial parliament is the same thing Mubarak was doing, except with a more leftist slant. Without free elections the new leader can appoint or depose anyone he wants, for whatever personal reasons he may have. You offered no definition for 'token reforms' other than 'pleasing the liberals' (in other words, fluff), nor for 'ignorance' except that it applies to 'peasants' (and depending on how you choose to educate them you could easily end up making them spiteful). You said there would be free elections "when the time has come," but when is that, and by what measure?

Any Egyptian will recognize this "transitional government" you have modeled is the exact same as the Mubarak regime, except farther to the left than it was before, which they might decide is even worse. If the United States and Europe support that regime (which track records indicate they would), it becomes a puppet state of the West in the eyes of the citizens. And when they have the opportunity to change that regime, whether by voluntary turnover or forceful takeover, there will be an ultraconservative backlash that makes the Muslim Brotherhood of today look like a gay pride parade.

I think it best that a fully democratic Egyptian government be instated now, while the conservative forces in the nation are still relatively moderate and well-balanced with the liberal movement. If it goes wrong for our interests in the region, it won't be nearly as bad as it would if Egypt were forced to continue on the same path. If anything, we have a better chance of preserving our interests by aiding the democratic process in the country once the Mubarak regime collapses, which even in light of the recent violence is still all but guaranteed to happen.

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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-03 04:34:32 Reply

I reckon the guy running the place should step down and Egypt should have democracy (there are rarely any good dictators especially in Africa.)

Whether these riots are helping progress I have no idea.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-03 06:00:56 Reply

At 2/3/11 02:18 AM, Dawnslayer wrote: So let me see if I understand this correctly: your solution for establishing democracy in Egypt is to preserve the military dictatorship the people have been protesting against for an indefinite amount of time?

Sorry, but what made you assume that I want democracy in Egypt? At the very least, I want Egypt to become a country where all of its citizens (even the women and the Christians) have a shot at a decent education, decent healthcare and a chance at getting high in government that depends only on his own merit. A democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood is not going to make steps towards such an Egypt. Democracy isn't a form of art in the sense that democracy for the sake of democracy is meaningless.

Of course, when a country has a strong, educated middle class, democracy is the best form of government to prevent corruption and bloody power transitions, and in the end, I think it would be best for Egypt to become democratic. Even now it holds that if Egypt's women (roughly 50% of the population) would simply vote out of self-interest then the Brotherhood would never win the elections. Problem is, the women in Egypt's highly conservative heartlands are very unlikely to do that, so a transitional government needs to take over until they're educated enough to know what their own interests are. And yes, I know I'm being paternalistic.

Allow me to pick this apart: your "populist general" only has to say he supports the people to secure absolute power for life.

Well, if after 10 years it becomes clear he's only paying lip service to the transition towards a functioning democracy then the people should oust him the same way they do with Mubarak (if they turn out successful now).

Your artificial parliament is the same thing Mubarak was doing, except with a more leftist slant.

Lovely. You see, my problem with Mubarak isn't that he's an autocrat. My problem is that he's an autocrat who isn't doing anything to lift his people up to the level where they don't need an autocrat. All he cared about was making sure his son would succeed him - luckily that seems to be off the table now with Suleiman, but still.

(and depending on how you choose to educate them you could easily end up making them spiteful).

Then send in the military. You know how they handle spiteful peasants in China? Do that.

You said there would be free elections "when the time has come," but when is that, and by what measure?

I could define this is terms of literacy, strength of the middle class or political conscience, but I can simplify it all by saying that the time has come when opinion polls and expert analysis suggest that the Muslim Brotherhood won't pick up more than 25% of the votes. Right now the only doubt is whether they'll hit the 50% mark or end up just under it.

Any Egyptian will recognize this "transitional government" you have modeled is the exact same as the Mubarak regime, except farther to the left than it was before, which they might decide is even worse.

Oh, I'm not saying it can't fail. I'm just saying that it has a better chance of working out that free elections. Remember what happened in Algeria in 1991. After the radicals won the first round of elections it took a military intervention and a civil war to prevent the establishment of a Sunni Iran in North Africa. There's no point in emboldening them by granting them a poll victory.

I think it best that a fully democratic Egyptian government be instated now, while the conservative forces in the nation are still relatively moderate and well-balanced with the liberal movement.

No, dude, they're totally not. The Muslim Brotherhood is better financed (without 'dirty' cash that comes from the West), better organised, and they have leaders that can speak to the common people unlike al-Baradei. Furthermore, their Islamist ideology is powerful at the moment, being the only force that actually challenges US hegemony and the among the Egyptian population hugely unpopular state of Israel (and internationally, if the Brotherhood wins in Egypt it would embolden Islamists worldwide). And given the causes of the recent unrest (rising food prices, corruption, sense of national decline), their campaign is bound to resonate with the Egyptian people. At least more than that of the followers of a (in the Arab world) dead ideology like liberalism or socialism.

Hey, in Tunisia democracy might work. I'm sure a lot will get better but it might work. But at worst they end up in conditions similar to before the uprising. In Egypt, it will likely end in a catastrophe --- to a slight extent for us but mostly for the Egyptian people.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-03 06:10:16 Reply

At 2/3/11 06:00 AM, lapis wrote: Hey, in Tunisia democracy might work. I'm sure a lot will get better but it might work.

*not sure

Probably other typos and word omissions in there as well but this one is rather important.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-06 05:45:59 Reply

I just hope another country isn't degraded to a theocracy, weather it be Islamic, christian, and etc.

To do so is to undo almost 500 years of history.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-06 06:39:59 Reply

It's a messy situation - and I personally thing it's just a question of which group installs whom.

The egyptian military are the ones allowing this overthrowing to take place, they're probably going to want one of their own to go into power. Possibly could reflect public opinion too, especialy if the new leader was a headstrong Islamic.

Israel does not want another Islamic state bordering with it. It already resents the arms smuggling going through Egypt and would be forced to become hostile with Egypt if the issue became worse.

However America is facepalming hard as it funds both the Israel and Egyptian armies and doesn't want to have to enter combat or have anyone else do so. The point of their funding is to increase stability, they don't want these arms used for the opposite.

The US is also very likely to want to install a pro-US leader in Egypt to help with diplomacy and increase US presence in the area. It's also an opportunity to cut down on arms smuggling within the area and keep the Muslim Brotherhood at bay.

So as far as I can see someone has to lose out for the situation to be resolved, and I can't see this leading to anything other than more unrest.

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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-10 11:01:37 Reply

Rumors are going around that Mubarak may announce his resignation within a few hours from now.

exciting !!!

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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-10 12:43:50 Reply

At 2/10/11 11:01 AM, lapis wrote: Rumors are going around that Mubarak may announce his resignation within a few hours from now.

exciting !!!

I could've sworn he said he wasn't gonna. Oh well, it'd be better that he'd take the quiet route and leave his office the peaceful way rather than any other available option, I think quite frankly.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/1 0/us-egypt-protest-mubarak-instantview-i dUSTRE7194H220110210


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-10 14:15:43 Reply

For those of us interested, Mubarak is expected to give a speech today at GMT 20:00. In other words, as of this writing, about 40-45 minutes from now. You can watch the speech live here.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-10 16:14:44 Reply

At 2/10/11 12:43 PM, zephiran wrote:
At 2/10/11 11:01 AM, lapis wrote: Rumors are going around that Mubarak may announce his resignation within a few hours from now.

exciting !!!
I could've sworn he said he wasn't gonna.

And no indeed, after delivering a late speech Mubarak announced that he is not stepping down. People are rather angry about this, needless to say.

An unwise decision on his part.

Triple post.

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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-10 17:22:30 Reply

I say they storm the palace!


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-10 18:24:32 Reply

All of this reminds me of a joke, to lighten the mood up a bit.

So Obama, Putin, and Mubarak are in a meeting when God comes down and says, "The world will end in 2 days. Alert your people."
Obama comes back to the States and gives a speech. "My fellow Americans, I have good news and bad news. The good news is that God exists. The bad news is that the world is going to end in 2 days."
Putin goes to Russia and gives his speech. "My comrades, I have bad news and worse news. The bad news is God exists, which means everything we've believed in the past century is wrong. The worse news is the world is going to end in 2 days."
Mubarak goes to Egypt and gives his speech. "Egyptians, I have good news, bad news, and worse news. The good news is that God exists. The bad news is the world is going to end in 2 days. The worse news is I will be your president until the end of time."


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-10 18:44:37 Reply

How dense is Mubarak? Seriously, get the fucking point!

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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-10 23:03:32 Reply

I can probably tell that Mubarak has a death wish by not leaving now. Yeah, he gave away his presidental powers to VP Suleiman and others in his cabinet, but he is a pariah in his own country right now, and the longer Mubarak is still in Egypt, the worse things are going to get for him and for the rest of the country.

I don't even know what Mubarak is trying to prove by staying in Egypt, when the protesters are calling for his head, something tells me that Mubarak sealed his fate when he made that speech, saying that he is staying put. Not even the army can save his ass now, considering that they turned on him.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-11 00:07:38 Reply

The only thing I can read from this is that perhaps Mubarak has some arrogant and/or desperate hope the protests will stop. That he can sit and wait, pray his VP is unpopular and/or engineer some situation where he can waltz back into power as a conquering hero.

This seems stupid as fuck to me of course, but the guy has been in power unchallenged basically for 30 years, I can't imagine it's easy to wrap one's mind around the idea that the gravy train has come to a stop.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-11 00:25:22 Reply

At 2/10/11 11:03 PM, orangebomb wrote: I can probably tell that Mubarak has a death wish by not leaving now.

Pretty much this, and a tad of what Avie said. If there was a time for him to step down peacefully, it would of been today. Now Mubarak's put a price on his own head, with no one's fault but his own.

Of course, this wouldn't be the first opportunity Mubarak has messed up.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-11 12:12:08 Reply

At 2/10/11 12:43 PM, zephiran wrote:
At 2/10/11 11:01 AM, lapis wrote: Rumors are going around that Mubarak may announce his resignation within a few hours from now.

exciting !!!
I could've sworn he said he wasn't gonna.

:D


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-11 12:24:44 Reply

At 2/10/11 11:03 PM, orangebomb wrote: I can probably tell that Mubarak has a death wish by not leaving now.

Well, in his speech he DID say something along the lines of:

"In Egypt I was born and in Egypt I will DIE."

I believe a number of people would be happy to oblige and indulge him in his desires.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-11 12:31:37 Reply

Lol, I just heard a piece of firework explode. Maybe I have Egyptians living in my neighbourhood.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-11 12:33:37 Reply

At 2/11/11 12:31 PM, lapis wrote: Lol, I just heard a piece of firework explode. Maybe I have Egyptians living in my neighbourhood.

http://www.youtube.com/aljazeeraenglish?
feature=ticker

Maybe you are. I've heard they're really happy now.

>: D

He did go.

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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-11 14:33:13 Reply

Party tonight Egypt. Tomorrow the real work begins


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-11 14:57:35 Reply

I think the military should start talking with representatives from all walks of Egyptian life (Coptic Christan figureheads, ElBaradei, Wael Ghonim, maybe some moderate members of the Muslim Brotherhood, etc) and get to work on a new Constitution or some kind of other way to lay the groundwork for a transition to a state that will represent everyone.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-11 17:22:20 Reply

At 2/11/11 02:57 PM, animehater wrote: I think the military should start talking with representatives from all walks of Egyptian life ... maybe some moderate members of the Muslim Brotherhood

The military should definitely talk with the entirety of the MB. The more Mb is involved, the less likely they will get the feeling of being marginalized and ingored. If the fear is that the MB will start to try to take power and become terrorist this will work two fold. First if they are included they will not feel the need, nor have the legitimate claim of being left out, to want to revolt. Secondly, we all know that groups that feel marginalized and left out are exponentially more likely to commit acts of terrorism.

In the likely case that the MB does not want to be violent or support violence in Egypt, I would highly suggest not giving them ,or anyone else for that matter, an excuse to turn to the dark side.

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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-11 17:42:01 Reply

At 2/11/11 05:22 PM, Camarohusky wrote: The military should definitely talk with the entirety of the MB. The more Mb is involved, the less likely they will get the feeling of being marginalized and ingored.

I completely agree. One of the main motivations behind widespread support for jihadist violence is political exclusion. They need to be channeled the same way the provisional IRA was channeled. With that being said, though, due to the Muslim Brotherhood's power in the slums and heartlands it is clear that the armed forces will have to walk a very fine line between provoking militancy and giving in to them to the point where the country is in an Islamist cycle that can no longer be stopped. I might even go as far as to say that I expect that this balancing act will shape Egyptian politics for the next few years. But that's talk for tomorrow. Now, we celebrate.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-11 22:57:24 Reply

At 2/11/11 05:22 PM, Camarohusky wrote:
At 2/11/11 02:57 PM, animehater wrote: I think the military should start talking with representatives from all walks of Egyptian life ... maybe some moderate members of the Muslim Brotherhood
The military should definitely talk with the entirety of the MB. The more Mb is involved, the less likely they will get the feeling of being marginalized and ingored. If the fear is that the MB will start to try to take power and become terrorist this will work two fold. First if they are included they will not feel the need, nor have the legitimate claim of being left out, to want to revolt. Secondly, we all know that groups that feel marginalized and left out are exponentially more likely to commit acts of terrorism.

In the likely case that the MB does not want to be violent or support violence in Egypt, I would highly suggest not giving them ,or anyone else for that matter, an excuse to turn to the dark side.

Your pretty much are thinking what I'm thinking right here. Every walk of life in Egypt needs to be represented and have a say into the new government, so that way no one would get left out and marginalized to the point where they could get hostile. The military is the proverbial glue for the many groups in Egypt that keeps them together, and sort of act like moderators to make sure that everyone gets their say in.

Now, here's the whole meat and potatoes of the revolution lies, so to speak, it's the government that the people will choose after Suleiman gets out, and hopefully it will be a democratic government that arises from the old totalitarian order under Mubarak, and not a theoracy like what happen in Iran in 1979. It's clear that the military is going to play a huge part into the next government, and eventually into foreign policy down the road, after the government has been set up.

As for Mubarak, it's a good thing he got out of Cairo, otherwise he would've been a carcass floating down the Nile after those protesters get their hands on him.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-12 15:44:34 Reply

%u062A%u0639%u0634 %u0645%u0635%u0631


AWESOME

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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-12 18:40:48 Reply

I hope the Egyptians use this new found freedom and use it wisely and also hope Democratic movements spring up across the middle east especially Iran.

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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-12 21:05:56 Reply

At 2/12/11 06:40 PM, SouthAsian wrote: I hope the Egyptians use this new found freedom and use it wisely and also hope Democratic movements spring up across the middle east especially Iran.

Don't forget Libya Syria, and Sudan.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-13 13:32:58 Reply

At 2/12/11 06:40 PM, SouthAsian wrote: I hope the Egyptians use this new found freedom and use it wisely and also hope Democratic movements spring up across the middle east especially Iran.

Well let's just hope "Democratic movements" aren't the same as they were in Iraq LOL.


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Response to What Do You Think About Egypt??? 2011-02-13 14:55:31 Reply

At 2/13/11 01:32 PM, Lorkas wrote: Well let's just hope "Democratic movements" aren't the same as they were in Iraq LOL.

Speaking of Iraq, maybe if democracy can truly take hold in Tunisia and Egypt they should also take part in spreading the revolution and aiding the protestors in neighboring countries, by force if needed.

How long would it take for a Tunisian/Egyptian military force to sweep through the Libyan coast anyhow?


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