Coin Flip

[TimeBender]

Just had a thought, I consider interesting.

Let's say we're all hanging out and I pull out a coin and say "I'm going for 5 tails" I flip my first coin i get heads, then again, then again, eventually I got 5 heads. I'd probably think "how odd" but actually because there is no direct or indirect influence of the first flip to the other its actually (from a basic observation and if done properly) a 1/2 chance everytime.

Okay, so although it would be odd. It wouldnt be a very impossible thing if every coin ever flipped in a different world, or from then own was heads because its always a one half chance. It's like the collective possible of all events is 1/2.

idk im no math mathmation, you could say because i could have gotten H(heads)T(tails)TTTT, HHTTT,HHHTT,HHHHT, or HHHHH. theres a one in five chance.

but im not thinking about it anymore because i wouldnt know. talk to me.

-lia sun

[TimeBender]

At 12/26/10 04:30 AM, ThePoonjabi wrote: Chances of that happening would go down rather quickly.

so there is an influence from flip to flip? so in some way every flip influences the other no matter who, when, or where?

explain what you can.

thanks

[TimeBender]

At 12/26/10 04:46 AM, ThePoonjabi wrote: Forgot to mention, after it gets past round 6, half people don't count and I either rounded up or down randomly. My count may be off by 1 or two but not by a whole lot.

Hmm. I read both your post. I suppose thats would happen if they were uninfluenced and unrelated. I still would like somethings explained to me (i prefer the simple english wikipedia, look it up its great) i dont think i can draw some conclusions from it right now but ill think about it for sometime. Thanks for explaining and dropping science g.

[CyanSandwich]

At 12/26/10 04:35 AM, TimeBender wrote:

At 12/26/10 04:30 AM, ThePoonjabi wrote: Chances of that happening would go down rather quickly.

so there is an influence from flip to flip? so in some way every flip influences the other no matter who, when, or where?

There's always a 1/2 chance of the coin landing on whatever. But the chance of getting something so many times in a row is lower.
The probability of any given flip landing on heads isn't influenced in any way by previous flips. The probability of getting 5 heads in a row is quite low, but each individual land-on-heads is 50/50.

[FishyPerson]

The chance of getting heads up is still 50/50 no matter how many flips there are. It doesn't go down.

It would only go down if someone magically added more sides to the coin. (And from what I know, that's impossible.)

[FishyPerson]

At 12/26/10 05:03 AM, ThePoonjabi wrote: See the odds being reduced by half for each coin added to the flipping yet?

...we're only flipping one coin.

[Ryanson]

If you want 5 tails in a row, just check out a night club. Who needs coin-flippin?

[TimeBender]

Ohhhhhhhh I GETZ IT NOWZ. I understand it as a spiritual, reality, thing that affects the world. Like example. You could fly, but that not likely to happen. Because of the way reality affects the world. It makes sense to me now. At least in that sense. Not an influence on the world.

thanksss GUISE. I read every post before this one carefully (9 replys i think). We can still talk about related things to this, like possiblities of isolated events and how they are related (a bit of an oxymoron) so dont lock unless its needed.

I'll explain the above statement in the first paragraph more. with examples because its a brain fuck thinking about it. some of these are of course related to other things and rules of nature more or less

you could get a million heads in a row but how real of a result is that?
you could always be happy and never sad(for whatever reasons), but would that make sense?

gah actually its a brain fuck thinking up examples too. i sometimes understand things but i have a hard time putting them into words. thats how i feel about love too.

thanks guise! :DDDD! especially the guy that did alot of hardcore science

of course if you think im wrong, im always open to new ideas.

[nOkus]

This thread goes to show you should never debate an indian at math lol.

He's right you fucktards

[TimeBender]

At 12/26/10 05:09 AM, TimeBender wrote: Ohhhhhhhh I GETZ IT NOWZ. I understand it as a spiritual, reality, thing that affects the world. Like example. You could fly, but that not likely to happen. Because of the way reality affects the world. It makes sense to me now. At least in that sense. Not an influence on the world.

actually i meant influence that carries on to each coin flip, lowering the chances. like i explained in my first post, thats what i was most interested in. i think poon was supporting that theory.

i read the 12 replies before posting this, some guy was really fun but i dont think im old enough to go into a nightclub? 18 in the us? id like to one day, i wanna understand some things.

i think i forgot to say something. i remember. hey sorry NG for my writing mistakes im making so much. I feel like im the only guy thats doin that, dont wanna get banned for it. unless a mod thinks thats best. recovering from being sick for like forever.

later gs.

[RubberTrucky]

Kolgomorov proved that if you keep flipping the coin, the chances of any string from any length to appear will be 1. Pretty awesome.

[Dogbert581]

At 12/26/10 04:35 AM, TimeBender wrote:

At 12/26/10 04:30 AM, ThePoonjabi wrote: Chances of that happening would go down rather quickly.

so there is an influence from flip to flip? so in some way every flip influences the other no matter who, when, or where?

There's no influence between flips. The odds are still 1/2 for each flip. If you asked what is the odds of getting heads on this PARTICULAR flip then it would always be 1/2 whether it was the first flip, 2nd flip, 5th flip or 2467278th flip. However, as was shown, the odds of getting 2 heads are the same as getting heads on the first flip AND heads on the second which is 1/2x1/2=1/4. The total odds 1/2 with each flip

[KemCab]

At 12/26/10 05:14 AM, TimeBender wrote: actually i meant influence that carries on to each coin flip, lowering the chances.

There is no influence that carries on to each flip. Each coin flip is independent of the other. They all have a probability of 0.50 but the chances that all of them turning up heads is much lower.

At 12/26/10 05:09 AM, TimeBender wrote: Ohhhhhhhh I GETZ IT NOWZ. I understand it as a spiritual, reality, thing that affects the world.

There's nothing spiritual about this.

you could get a million heads in a row but how real of a result is that?

That'd be real as real can get, if you flip enough coins.

you could always be happy and never sad(for whatever reasons), but would that make sense?

Yes. You could drink all the time and never be sad until your liver fails, but there's no reason to be sad about that.

especially the guy that did alot of hardcore science

This is stuff is something they should teach people in middle school.

[Quicksmasher]

At 12/26/10 04:35 AM, TimeBender wrote:

At 12/26/10 04:30 AM, ThePoonjabi wrote: Chances of that happening would go down rather quickly.

so there is an influence from flip to flip? so in some way every flip influences the other no matter who, when, or where?

explain what you can.

thanks

Always 1/2

-> T
-> H

we have to go for lets say H, 50% chance so far, 1/2

-> T | -> T
-> T | -> H
-> H | -> T
-> H | -> H

But we need twice H in a row, so we have if we flip the coin twice 4 combos, only one is right, 25% chance so far, 1/4

The combos always double with each more flip, but only one is always right, so looking at the whole thing, the higher the streak must be, the less chances you got, but for each flip extra there are only two possibilities, always one is right.

-> 50
-> 50

-> 50 (T) | -> 25 (T+T)
-> 50 (T) | -> 25 (T+H)
-> 50 (H) | -> 25 (H+T)
-> 50 (H) | -> 25 (H+H)

and so on

[Quicksmasher]

I suck at explaining anything on the internet.

[KemCab]

At 12/26/10 06:35 AM, Quicksmasher96 wrote: I suck at explaining anything on the internet.

This doesn't really need explanation at all. A coin flip is a coin flip. The only lesson that you should really derive from all of this chatter is not to gamble.

[Buoy]

what. that's like the most basic probability problem ever, don't people learn that when they're 12/13?

[Sequenced]

Probability lol.

[TimeBender]

At 12/26/10 06:25 AM, KemCab wrote:

At 12/26/10 05:14 AM, TimeBender wrote: actually i meant influence that carries on to each coin flip, lowering the chances.

There is no influence that carries on to each flip. Each coin flip is independent of the other. They all have a probability of 0.50 but the chances that all of them turning up heads is much lower.

I think poon disagrees on that. That's what I was most interested about, i actually didnt want there to be one dunno why, but now i understand there cant be an influence. it was really just an idea.

At 12/26/10 05:09 AM, TimeBender wrote: Ohhhhhhhh I GETZ IT NOWZ. I understand it as a spiritual, reality, thing that affects the world.

There's nothing spiritual about this.

I use the term spiritual always as a different definition then normally used. I really didnt expect you to get it, and im not saying you didnt. Its actually a personal meaning that I never actually explained to anyone. I meant by that word as "definite with meaning emotionally" like i really like my friend alex in a platonic way, its spiritual. thats a good way of explaining it, but i dont understand it entirely. if you (which i dont assume will, but i assume the ng community probably would) assume that it reflects my religious(a word more related to the commonly used meaning of spiritual, i assume i really dont even understand that meaning) views, and would like to ask me about them. you can in pm. but the most possible question i see would be "do you think god is real definitely? does it affect you emotionally" honestly no. moving on. sorry you had to read so much. its a habit of mine to jabber on.

you could get a million heads in a row but how real of a result is that?

That'd be real as real can get, if you flip enough coins.

Yeah, but that idea, i understand as an abstract idea(i use a lot of words to mean other things, its really how i speak i probably wouldnt know the commonly used term in most situations) has a logic (another one) that i could use as the basis of this theory. Since there is a chance when you ejaculate in a woman that you wont get her pregnant, unprotected. It's as real as real can get if from tommorow no children are ever born again. Of course this is different but understand it from a basic observational stand point thats purely based on chance, like a coin flip. I honestly dont agree with you there. Its reality that children are going to be born, but of course again thats just my understanding of the word from spending time on my planets(another one!).

you could always be happy and never sad(for whatever reasons), but would that make sense?

Yes. You could drink all the time and never be sad until your liver fails, but there's no reason to be sad about that.

Let's see that happen. My dad was an alchoholic, so i sorta relate that statement to experience. whether i should or shouldn't i dont know.

especially the guy that did alot of hardcore science

This is stuff is something they should teach people in middle school.

I'm sure lots of kids could do that stuff, but it was rather complex in my opinion. and thats really just a joke i like to say.

anyways, you really arent being threatened with a gun to read this so sorry if you did and your saaaad.

question to a mod, could i be banned for writing lengthy post about things that arent directly related to the topic. although in the cases in which ive done that they happen naturally. I see this forum as a place for dynamic conversation, but if its not ill understand and comply.

peace.

not proofreading sick lawlz.

[Steff]

my head HURTS

[TimeBender]

At 12/26/10 07:44 AM, Asalraalaikum wrote: my head HURTS

Ha! thats why i asked and didnt think too much about it. sorry bro.

[Falonefal]

At 12/26/10 07:44 AM, Asalraalaikum wrote: my head HURTS

Good, it means you have brains :D

[KemCab]

At 12/26/10 07:01 AM, TimeBender wrote: I meant by that word as "definite with meaning emotionally"

Well, that certainly makes more sense now, but even then I can't see how probability can be all that meaningful anyway. If that's how you interpret reality, so be it; it just tells me to avoid wishful thinking (i.e. winning big in gambling).

Yeah, but that idea, i understand as an abstract idea

You mean it'd be strange, right? If I decided to flip a coin a hundred times in a row and all one hundred times it turned up heads, I'd find it weird because I'd feel cognitive dissonance; I would expect that such an event would almost certainly not happen on my first flip but the fact would be that it did. It reflects our pattern of thinking.

In the world of probability, there are no guarantees; but we live in the real world and events do not boil down to probabilities. We say that, for example, the chance of dying in a car accident is one in twelve thousand based on statistics; but in reality, this does not make car crashes inevitable.

[whatty]

At 12/26/10 04:45 AM, ThePoonjabi wrote: Think about if you had 10,000 people all flipping coins at once. If they get heads, they move on to the next round, tails, they lose and are out.

Round one. 5,000 people flip heads, 5000 flip tails 1/2 odds - 5000 people remain.
Round two. 2,500 people flip heads, 2,500 flip tails. 2500 people remain.
Round three. 1,250 people flip half flip tails, 625 people still flipped heads all 3 times.
Round four. Only 312.5 (313 rounded up) have flipped heads 4 in a row
Round five. About 156 people would be left at this point. 156/10,000. Already less than 1% are left
Round six. Only 78 are still in.
Round seven. 39 people are left.
Round eight. 19 people +/- still going on to next round.
Round nine. 10 people
Round ten. Only five of the original 10,000 still advace
Round eleven. Maybe 2 are still going
Round twelve. Probably have a single person left at this time. Only a 1 in 10,000 chance to go this far.

If that happened I would like to see it recorded, They'd have to do it in a massive warehouse. But honestly. It'd be so awesome and interesting.

They should give the winner 10000 Euro... And if perchance both people go out at the end on the same flip, all patrons should be recalled and the process should begin again.

I'll get organizing.