assuming you flipped an evenly balanced quarter with perfect 50-50 odds and it came out heads the first thousand times what are the odds of it being tails the ext time you flip it?
I thought about this when I was flipping a quarter 5 times and it came out heads. In my mind, after the first time it flipped I kept on saying, ok, it'll probably be tails next. I was certain by time 5, but it was not.
So are the odds permanently set on 50-50, or is there some kind of change in the odds?
Like the moon over
the day, my genius and brawn
are lost on these fools ~Bowser, in Super Mario RPG
Presuming the coin isn't manipulated via magical powers, yes the odds stay at 50/50.
Actually if you flip it with tails facing up it will most likely land on tails more.
The heads side weighs more due to George washingtons fat ass head.
Permantly 50-50, each flip is independent of the last flip
5 flips is not enough to truly tell if it is a fair quarter. While it might have come out heads 5 times out of 5, if you flipped it 100 or even 1000 times the odd would be expected to even out at roughly 50-50 (it might be something like 49-51 or 503-497 but still roughly 50%). However, if you flipped it 1000 times and it came up heads more times than statistically significant (I could go all into hypothesis testing but it would take too long) you could conclude the coin was biased.
No its still 50/50
the fact that it landed heads 5 times in a row means nothing. Just a coincidence
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That's called the Gambler's fallacy; ie, assuming dice have memory.
While it is true that if we were to take a 20 sided die and roll 20 twice the cumulative odds will be 1/400 (ie: you have a 1 in 400 chance to roll 20 two times in a row, statistically) it's when you roll 20 once and then attempt to apply cumulative odds to the next roll that the fallacy occurs, when naturally, the odds of rolling 20 are still 1/20.
Basically the odds of rolling three 20's in a row are statistically 1/8000; however each seperate roll is only a 1/20 chance. Does this make any sense?
But then, why is it that my brain expects a different reaction from the heads I just flipped? I already said the quarter would be non biased, so assuming it were 50% it would be 50% chance of it coming out heads 1001 times?
No, there must be an equation of some kind that can accurately predict the odds of an expected result, combined with odds of it occuring more than once.
Like the moon over
the day, my genius and brawn
are lost on these fools ~Bowser, in Super Mario RPG
Math... physics... too much... brain pressu-
At 5/17/10 02:23 PM, Ass-Crumb wrote:
Basically the odds of rolling three 20's in a row are statistically 1/8000; however each seperate roll is only a 1/20 chance. Does this make any sense?
OH I GET IT, so it's like 1/2 chance of it being heads on first flip, the equation would be (odds/odds^the amount of times you chance it)= the odds of your desired result occuring.
Like the moon over
the day, my genius and brawn
are lost on these fools ~Bowser, in Super Mario RPG
At 5/17/10 02:25 PM, bladeofluigi wrote: But then, why is it that my brain expects a different reaction from the heads I just flipped? I already said the quarter would be non biased, so assuming it were 50% it would be 50% chance of it coming out heads 1001 times?
Coming out heads the 1001st time as well. You're thinking that the coin will try to balance it out statistically, but the coin can't do that.
No, there must be an equation of some kind that can accurately predict the odds of an expected result, combined with odds of it occuring more than once.
No I don't think there is one. Or at least not for a case where the next outcome is independent of the former outcome (like in the case of coin flipping). It will always be 50:50 and the chance of flipping tails n times in a row will remain (1/2)^n.
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The odds are always 50-50, But the probability that it will land on heads again is not.
the chance after 50 consecutive tosses to land on heads again is roughly 0.00000000000007763%
At 5/17/10 02:23 PM, 111122223188 wrote: After one thousand heads,
Getting head... One thousand times? I'm sorry, I just can't do it..
Its still 50/50 for every flip, regardless of the flips before it.
Each individual time there is a 50/50 shot at it. You could flip the same quarter 1 billion times and get heads. You would still only have a 50/50 shot of getting tails.
NO!
You know what people forget about these things? Weight. It's not a 50-50 chance, odds are greater that you will land on heads because the heads side is heavier than the tails side of the quarter. It's the truth.
I have no idea why people never add this to the equation.
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50/50, that type of thinking is called the gamblers fallacy.
At 5/17/10 03:08 PM, vannila-guerilla wrote: NO!
You know what people forget about these things? Weight. It's not a 50-50 chance, odds are greater that you will land on heads because the heads side is heavier than the tails side of the quarter. It's the truth.
I have no idea why people never add this to the equation.
Link please.
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At 5/17/10 03:08 PM, vannila-guerilla wrote: NO!
You know what people forget about these things? Weight. It's not a 50-50 chance, odds are greater that you will land on heads because the heads side is heavier than the tails side of the quarter. It's the truth.
I have no idea why people never add this to the equation.
I said earlier actually that they were perfectly balanced on both sides so everyone would assume the quarter was not bias.
Like the moon over
the day, my genius and brawn
are lost on these fools ~Bowser, in Super Mario RPG
A 50% chance to get a certain result does not mean that if you do something ten times, you'll get that one result five times. It means that there is an equal chance for both to happen. For all you know, if you flipped that coin another thousand times, it could have landed on heads every time.
Odds are always, always 50-50, although obviously the chance of having 1000 heads or tails in a row is lower than 50-50.
So essentially, each individual coin has a 50-50 chance, but the chance of the total is different.
This too will pass.
Memento mori
At 5/17/10 03:08 PM, vannila-guerilla wrote: NO!
You know what people forget about these things? Weight. It's not a 50-50 chance, odds are greater that you will land on heads because the heads side is heavier than the tails side of the quarter. It's the truth.
I have no idea why people never add this to the equation.
If the heads side were heavier, wouldn't it make the heads side fall on the bottom making it land as tails...
I have no idea why you didn't add that to the equation.
At 5/17/10 02:22 PM, Jackho wrote: No its still 50/50
the fact that it landed heads 5 times in a row means nothing. Just a coincidence
^ This.
there are 2 sides to a quarter..you got 45% chance on landing on either side. the other 10% is the chance that it lands standing up on the curve.
fuck
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