At 10/16/09 10:13 PM, Korriken wrote:
At 10/16/09 08:57 PM, Der-Lowe wrote:
This a nice example of the fallacy of composition, one of the most popular ones in economics. You say that, according to you, because a measure has had negative effects on states it will therefore have negative effects if it is imposed on the country as a whole.
It
already
Happens
Ignoring the dubious accuracy of your first statement, it does not follow that the effects imposed on an individual (or a subset of individuals) will have the same effects on the whole. One of the most clear examples is with the printing of money. If I print 100,000 dollars and hand them to you, you'll certainly be better off, since the expansion of the money supply will be minimal, you'll gain 100,000 dollars. However, if I were to do the same for every American, then the price level will certainly adjust to the massive printing.
printing and giving out money has little to do with crushing the well off with a massive tax burden. the rich will always protect their money. you start handing out massive quantities of printed money, and the rich will swap their american dollars for another currency to protect the value of their money. This is also why most of the well off own a lot of gold.
It was an example about the fallacy of composition, to show how a measure in an individual has different effects from a measure taken globally. You don't argue the example, you argue whether the fallacy of composition applies to the case we're discussing.
And switching from monetary to non-monetary assets is a practice held by everybody in an inflationary context.
Same happens with your example; a tax imposed on a State within the US is likely to be easily avoided by simply moving to other State, because most states are alike: they share the same customs, legal practices, educational levels, average incomes, etc, so moving from one state to the other is quite straight forward.
do go on....
This is not the case for leaving the US. There are few countries to which a major reallocation of resources could take place (safe legal framework, highly qualified labor) if a tax hike were to take place, and they all have higher taxes than the US.
I wouldn't be so sure about that one, Jimbo.
So people who have been born in the US, and have nothing to do with it rather not be American, because they get taxed anyway. This is not relevant at all with the imposing of an income tax.
You seem to forget that lowering taxes is what has created the debt in the first place.
Horse crap.
You see, before the 80s, the US had a very basic yet effective fiscal policy: when we're at war, we take debt to pay for it, and then in peace years, we create surpluses to pay it back. This "law" was broken in the 80s with the beginning of the tax-cut policy, fixed in the 90s, and broken again in the year 2001.
Lowering taxes has been proved catastrophic for the coffers of the US Treasury.
Do not
feed me
Lies!!
See the graph below. You'll see that debt/gdp ratio increases are caused by world wars, except for the 80s. Since it does not include recent data, during the Clinton Administration fell to 30%, with budget reduction, and yes, new economy boom. The Bush administration saw taxes being cut and a slow economy, hiking the figure to the current 70%.
Back to your links, each link more pathetic than the other. All of them share the same the same fallacy, the failure to apply ceteris paribus, or to hold other thing constant. The 1920s were the roaring 20s, that's why tax revenues increased, it was one of the biggest expansionary cycles in the US, that came through the reconstruction of europe, US based, and the cashing of loans to the War.
The second link is basically the same, it ignores that the US economy was under a high strain because of the aggressive Volker inflation-fighting policies and oil crisis. The crisis ended, and growth resumed.
And the third link simplifies the issue, by ignoring the deductions that the tax reform eliminated, closing the loopholes.
The links you provided are so ridiculous that even Samuelson in his introductory Economics book, in the very first chapter gives it as an example of flawed thinking:
* Failure to hold other things constant: A second pitfall is failure to hold other things constant when thinking about an issue. For example, we might want to know whether raising tax rates will raise or lower tax revenues. Some people have put forth the seductive argument that we can eat our fiscal cake and eat it too. They argue that cutting tax rates will at the same time raise government revenues and lower the budget deficit. They point to the Kennedy-Johnson tax cuts of 1964, which lowered tax rates sharply and were followed by an increase in government revenues in 1965. Hence, they argue, lower tax rates produce higher revenues.
What is wrong with this reasoning? This argument overlooks the fact that the economy grew from 1964 to 1965. Because people's incomes grew during that period, government revenues also grew, even though tax rates were lower. Careful studies indicate that revenues would have been even higher in 1965 had tax rates not been lowered in 1964. Hence, this analysis fails to hold other things (namely, total incomes) constant.
that is common sense!
A final comment: common sense is the mental process laymen have. Us scientists rather use the scientific method.
Common sense is the backbone of the scientific method. but what would liberals know about either since they cast both aside when it does not work for what they want?
You believe there are no economists that are left wing? You seriously do?
This is the lowest point in your argument. Macroeconomics, which handles the issue of unemployment, has never pointed in the direction you have stated.
thats because macroeconomics is WRONG!
Well, I suggest you publish your work debunking the sum of all knowledge economists have created from 1936 to date, and win the nobel prize. Remember to share the 1.4 million.
Unemployment takes place where there is not enough demand of labor. Demand of labor depends on, the relationship between the wage the firm has to pay, and the amount of money the labor "bought" will generate.
Unemployment happens when businesses can't afford to expand and make purchases of new equipment and such.
True if there's unemployment because the rate of change in employment is below populational growth. But there isn't unemployment now because jobs have been created slower than people have been introduced in the labor force, there's unemployment because firms have fired people. There isn't full capacity, firms are working below their capacity.
However, that's somewhat accurate only if you consider there to be associated costs with hiring: recruitment, selection processes, etc. But wouldn't it be cheaper just to lend money to the businesses that are in need of it, instead of giving businessmen money that we're not quite sure they'll actually spend, since they will only do so if they believe that the will be able to market the goods they produce?
Something like, Obama's hiring loans?
Keynes was wrong.
That is not Keynesian theory, that's core economic thinking: benefit-cost analysis.
Keynesian theory says that unemployment is possible in the long run. If you were against keynes, you'd say the the government should do nothing, like our fellow minarchist here.