Thoughts on the Taliban

[Cuppa-LettuceNog]

Considering that recent reports estimate they control up to half of Afghanistan, and have surged in strength and effectiveness lately, would you consider it accurate to say that, at least for now, they are "winning" the insurgency? If you have any links concerning the subject, it would be appreciated.

[Bolo]

As much power as they might gain through fear and intimidation of the Afghan people, even if the US eventually decides to pull out, I doubt the Taliban regime could effectively govern the country anymore given that local tribes have seen the fruits of collaborating with American troops as opposed to Taliban insurgents (more food provisions, medicine, humanitarian aid). The weight of landmass under a military's hand is nothing when compared to the weight of an unhappy and unruly populace of the governed, who believe it is possible to attain tangible improvement. It has proven true time and time again in the course of history.

[Cuppa-LettuceNog]

Interesting, Bolo. I would also add that under the United States, the mega-profitable opium trade, which was shut down by the Taliban, is now back online and making people rich, further incentive to fight off the Taliban.

Any more thoughts?

[Brian]

I think the Afghan people are war tired and will side with whichever side they think is in their best interest.

If the Americans look like they are going to win, more afghans join their side. Otherwise the Taliban. I don't think the Afghans particularly like either of us and unless they are given a valid third option (their country) and nationalistic pride nothing will help them.

Also, the country is so tribal that I don't know if it can truly be unified under a government which caters any tribe at all, like the current one does.

I don't see much hope in Afghanistan atm, mostly due to complete missmanagement.

[Jon-86]

The Mujahadeen have never lost in Afghanistan etc to be honest, and the US used to support them when they were fighting the Soviets. Which is an interesting fact. The reason for this is because they live their. The middle-east is their home. They will fight to the end.

[Cuppa-LettuceNog]

Brian, what about the Northern Alliance? Don't you think that a local Patriot group, NOT created by the U.S Army like the current government was, is a strong weapon for getting the people on our side?