At 6/14/09 11:01 PM, adrshepard wrote:
None of these outcomes are good, and the one about Shiite/Sunni tension surpassing Israel/Palestine tension is absolutely wrong.
At this point, nothing is absolutely wrong. I get the sense that the Israel/Palestinian issue is something that Arab governments pay lip service to for the sake of domestic constiuents. But in the end, they don't really care about the plight of the Palestinians. If they did, why hasn't Saudi Arabia, Jordan, etc given land to the Palestinians?
On the other hand, Iran having a toe-hold in Iraq puts the Shi'ite denomination closer to home. In fact if you look at the history since the founding of Islam...more blood has been shed between Sunni & Shi'ite than Islam & Judaism.
I don't think it would be beyond belief to think that Arab capitals are more concerned with developments in Tehran than in Tel Aviv.
Hostility towards Israel has nothing to do with Israel being a threat. They just hate Israel for what happened decades ago and turn a blind eye to everything that justifies Israeli policy or undermines the "justice" of the Palestinian cause.
"Now if the Israelis, Palestinians, Arabs and Westerners can come up with a solution (probably a two-state one)...we could see positives from Ahmed's re-election."
I don't see how those two things could possibly be related. If anything, his reelection shows that people support Iran's support of Hezbollah fanatics, who aren't going to be appeased by anything short of absolute victory.
A two state solution to the Palestinian question gives the Arabs a way out. The Palestinian diaspora would now have a place to go. Arab leaders would no longer be distracted by having to pay lip service to the Palestinian cause. This frees them to unify against Iran. That is how they two are related.
As for Hezbollah fanatics, a Palestinian state takes much of the wind out of their sails. Promises of $25K (a fortune over there) to one's family is very attractive when you have no other options...but give someone options for one's future and religious zeal is no longer that great of a recruitment tool.
Furthermore, there is a precedence for Israel's existence. I believe it was the fourth Sunni Caliph (after Muhammed) who took to heart the Prophet's death bed dictate that no two faiths should live in the Holy Land (Mecca & Medina). So over the course of years the Jews who lived in Medina (and had provided Muhammed sanctuary when his fellow Meccans wanted him dead) were paid fair value for their lands and given lands in the North (I think in the area around Modern-day Israel).
Finally, if Israel would agree to provide aid to the Palestinians and we could call it a Dhimmi, which would further take the wind out of the fanatics sails.
Leaving the Arabs to unify against the theologically and racially different Iranians (the Israelites & Arabs are both Semite people).