So, its been a couple months since the H1N1 virus thrust it's self on to the world stage, enacting a declaration of health emergency in the US, virtually closing all of Mexico City, and closing airports worldwide. So far, most fatalities have been among people with underlying conditions or those who are not able to receive proper medical care. The virus is still rampant, and is now an official pandemic according to the WHO. So now I pose 3 questions to you. 1. Do you think that a vaccine will be necessary in the upcoming winter in the Northern Hemisphere? If so, do you think it will be ready by the time Flu Season 09' - 10'? 2. Do you think we will see a rise in fatalities soon as the virus spreads to 3rd world countries? 3. How likely do you think the chance of this strain mutating into the 1918 strain is? Also, do you think fatalities will be as high as, higher than, or lower than those in 1918?
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My answers:
1. I think that a virus would be necessary for the elderly, children, and those with other illness reducing the capacity of their immune system (HIV/AIDS, chemotherapy, etc. ) . However, i don't think that a vaccine will / would be necessary for healthy adults. I do think that the vaccine its self will be ready, but mass production will only have begun.
2. I expect the fatalities to rise.
3. I HOPE, that this strain won't mutate, but I think that the possibility is there. If it were to mutate to the 1918 strain, then I think that the fatalities would be about the same or slightly higher. I think that modern medicine and science will be able to produce an effective enough vaccine in a relatively quick time, but getting it massed produced, distributed worldwide, and keeping a steady flow up will be challenging. I think that science will be able to keep fatalities low... for those who can get their hands on it. I predict that the high number of poor and the high number of 3rd world countries will see high casualties and be a large chunk of the total death toll. Not only will their in-ability to get medical care be a reason in death tolls, but poor diet, poor housing, and poor care for pre-existing medical conditions will all play their parts.
I look forward to seeing all of your responses.