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3.80 / 5.00 4,200 ViewsThe whole yellowstone is gonna destroy us scenario is another persistent myth. Not saying it can't happen, but the whole we are overdue is retarded.
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There have been three VEI8 (Volcanic Explosivity Index [level] 8) eruptions at Yellowstone, the first being 2,100,000 years ago, the second being 1,300,000 years ago and the most recent being 640,000 years ago. While the average interval between them works out to be about 730,000 years this is only taken from two samples, of intervals of 800,000 years and 660,000 years - hardly a good basis for making an accurate estimate.
That the Yellowstone system is still very much active is beyond doubt, and it is entirely possible that another VEI8 eruption might occur there, but as to when, if ever, it will occur is completely open to debate. For example if, instead of comparing the average interval with the most recent recent interval, we go by the interval between the first and second eruptions, then far from being overdue another VEI8 eruption we've still got another 70,000 years to wait.
What is much more likely, and even probable, is that a minor eruption will occur 'soon' - perhaps even sometime in the next few thousand years. Such an event would be entirely in keeping with the known behaviour of the Yellowstone system, which has had many more smaller eruptions than the large VEI8 ones, the most recent being about 70,000 years ago.