At 12/11/09 12:08 AM, boatwest wrote:
well i am not a machine, so chance works on me.
.....
So you're saying machines that can roll dies and successfully manipulate the roll to make it land on a specific side do exist?
Therefore you are saying you are wrong, because rolling the die ISN'T chance.
Rolling the die is a bad analogy, chance still exists, it's just that dies don't depend on chance, they depend on advanced physics(don't say mathematical probability, although that theory is valid, it's 3rd grade math. :| Advanced physics can tell you what the outcome of a roll will be if you plug in all the factors(like he said, how smooth the die is, how flat the table is, is the table really balanced in a way so that it's not leaning on a side? Is the house that the table is standing on really horizontal? If not, even if it may be slanting to the left by .00006 millimeters, that small slant does make a difference in the outcome.))
However,something like what they had said, taking a chance on the girl and hoping she isn't a homicidal maniac, that isn't chance either.(Not saying chance doesn't exist, I'll get to that later). Experiences in your life determine how trusting you are, as well as how paranoid you are about meeting a random person and that person may be a homicidal maniac. Most people are on the trusting end or non-paranoid side of this.
You call the president, and there are a billion possible secretaries that will pick up the phone and greet you(I know, there aren't a billion secretaries working for the president, it's just hypothetical.).
Now a math problem would be something along the lines of: "Every secretary has an equal chance of picking up the phone to greet you. Therefore if you take a guess which secretary it will be that picks up the phone, there is a 1 in billion chance you will be right."
However, when you apply reality into the problem, you'd realize that this may be impossible. Every person is uniquely different from one another, and in this problem, reaction time matters most. If we entered all the information of their life into an algorithm, we can determine who will be first to pick up every time. (More on algorithms, here's a story from creepypaste(IT'S SO AWESOME, I KNOW) that explains that not everything is chance, given the right tools, everything is pre-determined. Life is largely predetermined, nature is the playground/test field, and your brain receives all the information that can be used by the algorithm, which is the part of the brain that makes decisions: http://www.creepypasta.com/the-algorithm / ).
Now that was only half of the analogy, there's still why you picked that certain secretary. I can explain: Again, many factors determine your guesses. Whether it be you like names that start with x more or you like long names, w/e. Now let's say your guess was unbiased, so we can kick out all the super-obvious information on what you favor to determine your guess(If your guess was biased, it'd be tenfold easier to predict.). There are several ways to guess, and depending on which one you chose, I'll have a different way to present my argument. I will only be showing you 2 ways of guessing though, if you want to me to get more guessing methods to dismantle, then tell me the guessing method, I don't know all of them. Only rule for this is that it can't be done with a computer(Computers are already pre-determined, nothing, not even random name generators, are random, they follow a specific set of binary code rules, or else there'd be chaos, and the computer malfunctions.).
1. Taking out a list and randomly placing your finger on a name.
So this entire argument on it not being chance is basically explaining the physics of where it lands, so expect a lot of physics to follow up on: Depending on how enthusiastic you are about guessing, and many other things that I can determine if I had your entire life and what your brain thought of every second in a computer, I can determine how much effort you are going to put into raising your arm and whether your finger will be outstretched, completely erect(this can be based on how you usually point at things, with a crooked finger or erect.). If you would point your finger to the left or the right, top right, etc., this can be determined simply by examining your pattern of thought from the past and what commands you give yourself when guessing. Do you use reverse psychology and try pick the option opposite of what you guessed, do you go eenie minie mo(in that case, it's merely a matter of counting to determine what you'll pick), do you say the first one that comes to mind, say the first one your eyes landed on, or maybe even the second. All these techniques, when discovered to be used, can be used against you, and once I figure out your method of guessing, I can tell you what you will guess every time with the help of a little bit of physics and psychology, as well as physiology and biology.
2. Sort of a slot machine, where the list is basically repeating for eternity(I know that's impossible, but in order for the slot machine analogy to work by using your hands, this must be done. If you really want to be more realistic, we could say this list extends so far that it reaches the other side of Earth, and comes back around, connecting with the end of the old list, you use one hand to slide the paper forward and keep the names moving while your other hand stays in place as a marker.). Say you get bored of moving your hand, tugging the paper along and decide to stop, or maybe you stop when your arms get tired, perhaps you'll tell yourself to stop moving after 2 seconds, through process of elimination, I can eliminate most of the names that come up later, since 2 seconds isn't going to get you far, I can also eliminate the first several names, since 2 seconds lets your finger travel up the list far enough. Then I can take the speed per second your hand was traveliing at(Again from the 1st analogy, I can pre-determine how much effort you will put in your guesses, etc. just by examining your thought process.) and determine approximately where you will end up.
Now you may be telling yourself that just because all my past actions and patterns affect my daily decisions, it doesn't mean I'm under anyone's control, or that all my random decisions aren't based on chance, well you're not under ANYONE'S control, but rather you are controlling yourself by giving yourself restrictions on what to do and what not to do, how to dress, how to think, how to talk, etc.
These past patterns affect you on a suconscious level that will affect your judgment whether you like it or not. You have to actually use effort if you want free will and not be under your own control.
Now for an example where chance TRULY exists, would be this example:
You approach Starbucks, and decide to order randomly. You place your left hand over your eyes, and just out your right arm at a random spot into the menu. However, you then decide to choose something where you'd normally won't go to. For example, say you usually lean to the right, but this time, you lean to the far left. This time, it's completely up to chance, you just beat the algorithm.
You have to do something totally new every time in order to be considered "free".
Whew, that was a long essay @-@
Hope that cleared things up between you two.
Btw, for further clarification, I'm not on either side, I'm a third side to your little debate. Chance normally doesn't exist, but in rare situations ,they do.
