At 12/5/09 09:47 AM, gumOnShoe wrote:
But realistically, this probably won't happen in the good old U.S. of A. unless its for combat troops or disabled people.
I think this is the guise it will take on at first: attempts to help those who are disabled in some way. However, eventually similar tactics will be brought into the general populace, still as ways to fix disabilities, like ADHD and stupidity. I think for the most part it will sneak in under the political radar, and once it is known, it will already be so ubiquitous as to be impossible to speak out against.
I think we're over estimating how quickly this can really take effect, especially since each body is extremely unique, especially in the brain.
Except, structurally, they aren't. Individual wiring patterns of each brain are unique, but the methods by which those patterns are made are not. Similarly to how a gas is made up of a collection of individual particles, whose individual movements and rules and interactions might be too complex to try and compute in order to determine how the gas works, and yet we have other rules that allow us to model how gasses work without thinking about the particle rules (even though they be at the center of, and the cause of, the gas' behavior). We are already making great strides in mapping neural function (the resolution of which is doubling every 12 months), and in reverse-engineering the brain. We even know which brain cells control our emotional intelligence, how many of them the human brain has, and are starting to unlock how they work.
Intel already has in the works a neural implant that will be able to use gadgets like cell phones and personal computers. They expect it to gain widespread use by 2020. They also say that by 2040 humans will completely internalize our "personal computers".
Critics of the Human Genome project claimed that at the pace at which the genome was being sequenced that it would take hundreds of years to finish the project, but we finished slightly ahead of the 15-year schedule. ALL advancement is accelerating, and when you plot the pace at which it is doing so, 2045 is the magic number for what people call the Technological Singularity.
Yes, some of the basic schematics on what a neuron is are the same, but there's no such thing as a standardized way to build a brain. Conservatively, I'd say 100 years to 150 unless there is a huge breakthrough. It also depends on cost and whether it is allowed to be privatized.
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_art icle.aspx?id=17111
If we approach it the way we approached industry, the car or the internet I could believe you. But its more likely going to be like our space program. Pushing along a little bit at a time, reigned in by expenses.
Except, unlike our space program, the amount of money being spent on technology is increasing exponentially, doubling every 10-11 months, the price/performance of computation halves every 10-11 months, the number of US nano-related patents is growing exponentially, the internet backbone with which we share our data is increasing exponentially. This is an area the government has little to no control over. Politicians don't yet realize that we will soon be able to do with nanomachines what they think a pipe dream with stem cells.
I also take issue with the whole computers being more intelligent than humans. Moore's law is coming to an end, and I, even being a computer scientist find it hard to believe we'll finally even get a machine to pass a turing test soon.
The narrow, literal take on Moore's Law involving transistors is, indeed, ending... but only because we're beginning to move into a new paradigm of computing: 3-dimensional nanoscale. Carbon Nanotubes (though not without their problems at the moment) are the likeliest new tech that will allow our continued exponential growth. These new chips will be able to do the very things that our current chips cannot, and that makes them fall short of the human brain: parallel computing, self-repairing/rewiring (plasticity), emergent properties, combining of digital and analog phenomena, and some other things as well. It's really not as far off as you think.
I do agree, memory enhancements, internet links, and cyborg-prosthetics are likely to be very prevalent by 2045. But that's only because of the type of technology it is. I'd imagine it'd take another 50 years an a generation adjusted to the technology before we'd see full adoption by any significant portion of society, and that's a big IF and relies on there not being a religious or moral uprising against.
I think the move will be so subtle, so widespread and so fast that most organizations won't have the time to raise any real opposition to it.
Either way, the next 30 years are going to be fucking COOL!