At 2/17/08 04:46 AM, TheMason wrote:
17 years from now...
It's my own. I've been looking into India and China for awhile now..
Well sure, the advancing aging problem is looming on the horizon for most countries, but as a techie (not solely a dreaming TREKKIE like Al6200 ;O) ..there's one thing not be overlooked; namely robots.
Yeah I know, guys like me have been trumpetting the coming "Cambrian Explosion" for as many years as computers have been affordable, but honestly, their time will come. Honda for instance, when they first demo'd their prototype Asimo robot, they were quick to explain that although they had a good basic mechanical droid, they still expected that as far as hardware and software for artificial intelligence was concerned, that would still be at least another 10 years away. That was back in 2000.
Remember, Honda is not some small "investment" prototyping company. They are perhaps better placed for mass-production of high-end robots than anyone, having been a leader in high-end motorbikes for decades. If we say 5 more years to Honda's own large-scale production run, then another 5 for Japanese backed Chinese companies to ramping up for cost efficiencies and diverse designs, then we've still got another 5 years back-filling demand (say 15 years total).
During these 15 years the software/hardware side will go ballistic. And even if the artificial intelligence isn't quite up to independant labouring duties, then all those elderly folk (old bodies, young minds) will have a fit and strong buddy doing their labouring by supervised instruction. And those that can work independantly will do 3 shifts for every 1 human.
While labouring will continue to be outsourced to China and the like for decades without exhausting those populous', supervising robots should become a boon industry for the elderly job market, which will be sufficient to satisfy most localized labouring shortages.
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