3,942 Forum Posts by "D2Kvirus"
War fears push price of oil to two-year highs
By Saeed Shah
14 February 2003
The price of oil soared to fresh two-year highs yesterday as the United States and Britain continued to pile on the pressure for war with Iraq, while data showed that US oil inventories have dwindled to 27-year lows.
Commercial crude oil stocks in the world's biggest consumer nation are now at their lowest level since 1975, when the West built reserves to avert future price shocks after the Arab oil embargo.
International benchmark Brent crude oil rose 66 cents to hit $33.11 a barrel, its highest level since November 2000. US crude futures peaked at $36.35, their highest since October 2000, gaining 58 cents yesterday. Analysts said the persistent diplomatic divisions in the West had unnerved markets further.
Lawrence Eagles, of the brokerage GNI, said: "At the moment the world oil market is on a knife-edge. Stocks are very low and supply is tight. With a cold winter in the US, demand is strong. That all creates a very bullish environment."
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said uncertainty about the shape of any conflict has already pushed oil up by about $6 a barrel. Some analysts said oil was yet to peak and, given the low stocks, it was possible that a price spike could last longer than the short hike that preceded the last Gulf War, more than a decade ago.
Stephen Lewis, the chief economist at Monument Derivatives, said: "Oil could easily go above $40. We have not yet reached the highest level of anxiety. Most believe that war is still weeks away.... A sustained high price would be enough to push the global economy back into recession, deeper than the one seen in 2001."
The mainstream scenario adopted by the market is that of a short and decisive war, like the last conflict with Saddam Hussein's Iraq. That would entail a brief oil price peak – the last war saw oil touch $40 but that came well before the allies' military assault began. A high oil price for more than three months would start to present serious risks to global economic growth, economists said.
Iraq supplies less than 2 million barrels a day of the Middle East's daily production of more than 20 million barrels, so it is expected that Iraqi output will be replaced during the war by other exporters cranking up production. However, if the supply from one of these other countries, such as Kuwait or Saudi Arabia, gets disrupted as a result of the war, analysts warn that oil could shoot a lot higher than $40.
To match the 1973 or 1979 oil shocks, which had a dramatic impact on the world economy, the price of crude would have to go to $70 or $95 a barrel respectively, after adjusting for inflation, Morgan Stanley said. That is considered unlikely but possible if, for instance, the war in Iraq precipitates serious civil unrest in Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer.
A more likely scenario sees a fraught next couple of weeks before the increased output from Saudi Arabia, which began pumping more oil in early January, starts reaching the US. And, as winter lifts, demand will lessen anyway. In any oil price crisis, the international community could release supplies held in strategic reserves.
The EIU estimated that a short-lived war in Iraq would slow OECD growth by just 0.2 per cent. It sees oil dropping to $20 a barrel after a quick conflict. It said that the main damage to the world economy is coming from the build-up to an attack, which puts a risk premium on oil.
At 2/12/03 07:59 PM, Deathman33 wrote: Do you think that video game violence influences kids to kill?
The short version: No.
The long version: Do you particularly want to read a 3500 word essay, complete with endnotes, bibliography, and a musical number by Burt Bacharach?
PYONGYANG, NORTH KOREA—As the U.S. continues to inch toward war with Iraq, a jealous and frustrated North Korea is wondering what it has to do to attract American military attention.
"What does it take to get a few F-16s or naval warships deployed to the Yellow Sea?" North Korean president Kim Jong Il asked Monday. "In the past month and a half, we've expelled U.N. nuclear inspectors, withdrawn from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, restarted a mothballed nuclear complex capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium, and threatened to resume missile tests. You'd think that would be enough to get a measly Marine division or two on standby in the Pacific, but apparently not."
Kim said his nation is "way more deserving" of B-52 deployment than Iraq.
"Bush says his number one priority is eliminating weapons of mass destruction, but he sure doesn't act that way," Kim said. "Iraq may have weapons of mass destruction and may be developing more. The DPRK, on the other hand, does have weapons of mass destruction and isn't about to stop making them any time soon."
"Can I be any more clear?" Kim continued. "We have nuclear bombs and delivery methods. Kablooey! There goes Anchorage! But does Bush care? Nope—he just goes on about how we're 'a diplomatic issue, not a military one.' If he even mentions us at all, that is."
"It's like I don't even exist," Kim added.
In the nine years since coming to power, Kim has earned a reputation as a megalomaniac and tyrant, interring dissenters in camps, living in opulence while his citizens starve, and calling members of the North Korean navy "human bombs." In spite of such actions, he has failed to provoke the ire of the U.S.
After years spent trying to antagonize the U.S., relations between North Korea and America finally showed signs of deterioration in 2002, when, during his State of the Union address, President Bush accused the Asian nation of being part of an international "Axis of Evil." The provocative words, Kim said, sent his hopes of a military standoff with the U.S. skyrocketing.
"When Bush named us as part of his Axis of Evil, I was so happy," Kim said. "I thought to myself, 'This is it. We are finally going to have a military conflict with this two-faced hyena.' He'd been ignoring me so long, I really didn't think he cared."
Still, Kim's hopes for a U.S.-North Korea crisis quickly faded as Bush began to focus all of his energies on Axis of Evil member Iraq. In October 2002, Kim made yet another attempt to anger the U.S., admitting to enriching uranium in violation of a 1994 accord. The admission, however, did not produce the desired escalation in hostility.
Kim said he has not given up on attracting U.S. military attention, vowing to invade South Korea if necessary.
"I am by no means ready to quit, but this is very frustrating," Kim said. "I guess if your name's not Saddam, you're not worthy of America's hatred."
"Everyone in my country refers to me as 'Dear Leader.' Is that not disturbingly cultish?"Kim continued. "I do not understand why President Bush is so much more interested in Saddam than me. I'm a strange, despotic, unpredictable madman, too, you know."
At 2/11/03 04:50 PM, Devil_Knight_470 wrote: Sorry about this I just need to close the other topic down so I can start an new one,for the record this not an Anti-Blam Club,this a another Blam Club,that's to say now theres two Blam Clubs,so please close this one,just close the other one please?
In English, please.
Right now there is a large military presence at the UK airports, expecting a whole bunch of al-Qu'eda terrorist to casually walk through customs.
Haven't I said enough times already that the UK isn't a strategic target, especially for al-Qu'eda who just so happen to be against AMERICA, and couldn't give two shits about the UK, let alone trying to assassinate Blair.
9/11 didn't see one plane aimed in anger in British airspace, there hasn't been one since, or before, but Blair is intent on brewing his very own culture of fear, mainly out of arrogance. No wonder we're the joke of the EU - they can see our country is insignificant, but we can't.
And, frankly, what are the odds of the US being attacked by the end of this week? If your answer is anything but "minimal at best", you are a moron.
At 2/12/03 02:22 PM, Ninj4 wrote: bored bored bored ANYONE ELSE BORED?! ive got nothing to do =[ dam that B movie I WANT TO KILL IT
Have a shitty connection. You'll be too pised off waiting 10 minutes for Aura to load to do anything else.
Hmm, how can the US say this with such certainty? if so, shoudn't the military be preparing for it and, you know, preventing it? Or, just maybe, Dubyuh's gone further dwn in the Opinion Polls than Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot, or Bob Dole, so they need a ratings spike. Well, shock TV did wonders for MTV...
At 2/12/03 02:21 AM, jazz_mazter wrote:At 2/12/03 02:04 AM, basher13 wrote: Osama is death.Did you know Osama is no have terroris,I mean Osama is bullshit!They making people looks like he's live but he is nothing at all.Please elaborate. Your source of this information would be nice, too.
You understod it?
Anyway, I've always asked if anyone's ever seen Osama and Art Malik in the same room. As for the "conclusive" photos of his corpse, they're all a bit blurry, indistinct, and I doubt "Well, it fits the age, size, and probably injuries" spiel we've gotten.
And once more, we hear Iraq and al-Qu'ida are in cahoots. Forget rational debate, I'll put it bluntly:
FOR FUCK'S SAKE, DO YOU THINK WE'RE THAT FUCKING GULLIBLE, YOU DICTATOR MOTHERFUCKER?!?
At 2/7/03 12:53 PM, Alakazam wrote: I don't get it...what is your point with that article? France should be bombed simply because they are France.
In future, use a bit of lateral thinking when answering to my posts. I appreciate it.
Let's see:
George W. Bush
Tony Blair
Satan Lavigne
Kelly Osbourne
Metallica
Jerry Lawler
Michael Jackson
God
Alex Ferguson
Ron Atkinson
Liam & Noel Gallagher
OK, the original GTA had three cities:
Liberty City
Vice City
San Andreas
So it makes sense that it should be there. Hopefully it'll have he geography of the place. Steep hills, trolley cars, a hippy district, and a rather large, red bridge. Hey, I'd play it.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762462.html
Well, if that's the case, when is he going to be preparing for war against France, if this is all just about wanting to rid the world of the threat of nuclear holocaust?
"Powell said" does not constitute as "there is plentiful evidence that proves this." The sooner you work that out, the sooner the fearmongering can stop, and you can realise the real monsters are busy on Capitol Hill, fucking you every day of your life.
How convenient you missed out the min cause of Pyongyang's concerns - the US sending an increased military presence into North Korea, which he quite understandably wants to be elsewhere.
It seems that Bush is trying to start fights with as many countries as possible, and sends the entire armed forces out to show just who has the power, who calls the shots, and who can do whatever they like.
Personally, I hope this weakens their defences so the Mexicans can invade and take back all the states that are rightfully theirs. Hell, can Cuba join in and grab Florida while they're at it?
Strange that he's doing all the PR sabre rattling as it's coming up for an Election, isn't it?
Yeah, I'd have to pay #12.50 to see her London gig. That much, just for the privilege of bottling her offstage? Fuck that...
Latest update;
Last Thursday, Blair was jetting to Washington to back up Lil' Georgy, after addressing the UN in Madrid (their response is not on the record. Strange, that). Meanwhile, England ground to a half in a blizzard, and it turns out the infastructure to handle one is pretty inept, and wasn't given preperations, despite the weather warnings given four days in advance. It's almost as if he thought the elements wouldn't act without his say-so.
Also, he's suddenly piped up that there should be a second conference with the UN, before action is taken. Almost as if he's realised how poorly equipped his human shiel...sorry, troops are for this expedition, and it might not be the wisest, or most pointful, move in military history. Corporate history might say otherwise.
Meanwhile, former Labour MP Tony Benn has done something unthinkable; He's gone to Iraq to speak with Saddam. Didn't anybody think of this before?
God isn't dead, he just doesn't have Union representation:
At 1/27/03 01:20 AM, MystX wrote: I hate Al Gore because he try to get rid of wrestling,MTV,Video games and censor music.
No, that's his wife's job. She's the Moral "Majority" nutjob, not him. How can you miss out on a cultural icon such as Tipper Gore, for Christ's sake???
I swear I heard this one;
One day, both Osama bin-Laden and saddam Hussain are gathered together in a bunker for a private audience with one man. He is very old, with a long grey beard, and speaks only in German. His translator asks that he be only referred to as "Hitler."
Right, so where does this train of thought fail? Well;
1. Hitler is dead. There are witnesses with corroborating stories, plus physical evidence. He was also issed a death certificate in 1956 at the end of the inquest.
2. If he were alive, he'd be 113. Hardly able to fly out to a bunker somewhere in the Middle East.
3. Wait a minute, nobody has lived to that age, especially if you add the stress he suffered due to losing a war, the Russian army (among many) swarming in around his bunker, having to flee his country, which had been bombed to oblivion anyway. All that stress will not lead to a long life.
4. Why would Hitler, an Aryan supremist, help a couple of Arabs. On the same track, why would they accept his?
5. If Hitler were alive, wouldn't he be keeping a low profile anyway? Jetting around the world does not make a low profile.
6. Did I meantion he is very, VERY dead?
Oh yeah, get this.
One minute, he's "concerned" for the poor underprivileged people of Zimbabwe for living under Mugabe's regieme, not to meantion the fact he's saving out cricket team from humiliation at the Cricket World Cup which just so happens to be held in, well, guess which African nation? I notice he doesn't seem to have any problems with British Airways commuting flights there.
Anyway, at the same time, he seems quite happy at the prospect of innocent Iraqi civilians being vaporised by his old mate George.
Does this come across as hypocritical to anyone else?
At 1/23/03 10:02 PM, Reaper-n wrote:
you still still have to have some place in your heart for the country you belong too (no i'm not a patriot).
To quote Bill Hicks; "My parents fucked there, that's all." Patriotism is a joke, anyway. Why get so passionate about a country when all it does is fuck you over every day of your life? I'm not willing to die for my country, because it isn't worth it (to tie up that thread, BTW) - especially because it means dying for Bush's agenda at the moment, and Blair's comes a very, very distant second.
Besides, we're ruled by the US, ruled by Europe, because successive Governments are too fucking stupid to rule for themselves, and have dragged it down to the level it is currently at AND WON'T ADMIT THEIR MISTAKES, let alone the predicament it is actually in.
So, I repeat, fuck patriotism, it isn't like I chose to be a citizen of this country in the first place, I just had it forced upon me. Like i want to be represented by a vast majority of the 56 million dickheads that it contains.
It was released today that blair, in all his wisdom, will be sending British troops to The Gulf for no reason whatsoever, at about the same time France, germany and Russia all said that there was no point in doing so, as there is no reason for use of force, and the situation can be resloved diplomatically.
Then he suddenly remembered he has another Fireman's strike to take care of at home, and decided to go into talks. And also promised more jobs for the NHS, although he's promised that since he was elected while doing the opposite. so basically hiring a cleaner for some wards would look like a healthy statistic.
Of course, the damning statistic is just how prepeared for "war" our army is. We can go to The Gulf fully armed and ready for combat, just without:
20,000 weapons
95,000 Desert Jackets
48,000 Desert pants
31,000 helmets
As well as enough general provisions to go 'round, and tactical things such as radar and, well, TANKS. So I advise the Iraqi army to not bother using heat sensitive cameras to find camoflaged troops, as there will be quite a few ones easy to spot; they'll be wandering around the desert in their boxer shorts, armed with rocks, skin peeling at a rate of knots from sunburn.
Christ, even Bush is more orginizized than that...
You miss the point that the whole notion that us pot smokers funded the World Trade Center Demolitions Committee is a pile of ludicrous horseshit. Hey, why not start two cultures of fear with one incendary comment? It might help justify the tax payer's money you're wasting on it, instead of investment in the joke of an education system the US currently has. Then there's health, welfare, basic ameneties...
At 1/23/03 08:46 AM, Reaper-n wrote:
Anyway Britain has always been worried about terrorism long before the international community took notice. We've had the IRA attacking us for years, note that is also religious terrorism so dont anyone dare say i'm being discrimitory against mulsims without fully reading this post
Strange that they never get brought up - would it because they have three seats in Whitehall now?
Anyway, why would any self respecting internation terrorist bother with such an insignificant country as England, let alone Scotland or Wales? The IRA bombed London because they wanted to be rid of English rule, not for the hell of it, or because thejy thought a plane ride to the US was too far. al-Queda donb't care about us for that reason, as well as their mandate being against the US. Anyone that thinks the UK is remotely important in the scheme of things is an idiot, or more likely, an arrogant, image-reliant Prime Minister. We're a joke to the EU, a joke to the World, but Blair cosies up to the US to try and look like The Big Man. Cue laughter.
Come on, who wants to put their dick where Fred Durst's has been?
Since we like having our accounts, we won't tell you. Just keep voting and you'll get it in about three months.
That's the reason I didn't deposit any Exp. for about six months after joining - my Shockwave player never showed it, so I couldn't deposit.
At 1/22/03 12:40 AM, Crosstowntraffic wrote: arggh... there haven't been too many crap movies lately.. I'm pissed off... protect-pprotect-protect... Sigh..
Yeah, then suddenly today we get Johnny Rocketfingers and Newgroundsillaz. By God, we're voting Fifen all of a sudden, I can see the world imploding at any moment!!!
It's called "sarcasm", EZ3.
I repeat, go to a bookstore (a good one, preferably) and pick up a copy of Michael Moore's Stupid White men. Chapter One covers it, and should save dumb responses such as this.
